Month: April 2011

By CountingPips.com

The United States trade deficit decreased in February as a result of lower import levels, according to a release by the Commerce Department today. The U.S. trade deficit declined by $1.2 billion in February to a total shortfall of $45.8 billion following a revised deficit of $47.0 billion in January.

The trade data was higher than the market forecasts that were expecting a deficit of approximately $44.0 billion for the month.

The lower deficit was the result of a bigger decrease in imports than in exports. Imports of goods and services fell by $3.6 billion for the month to a total of $210.9 billion. Imports had registered a total of $214.5 billion in January.

The US exported a total of $165.1 billion worth of goods and services in February which was an decrease of $2.4 billion from January’s total exports of $167.5 billion.

The politically sensitive U.S. trade deficit with China declined in February to a $18.8 billion shortfall following a deficit of $23.3 billion in January. Other notable U.S. trade deficits were with OPEC at $9.4 billion, the European Union at $6.9 billion, Mexico at $5.3 billion, Japan at $5.2 billion and Germany at $3.3 billion.

The U.S. trade surpluses with other countries for February included Hong Kong at $2.5 billion, Singapore at $0.8 billion, Australia at $1.4 billion and Egypt at $0.5 billion.

April 12 (Bloomberg) — James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, talks about the outlook for the U.S. dollar and oil prices. Paulsen speaks with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance Midday.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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The U.S. fiscal deficit is set to be the largest among major developed economies this year, beating out Japan and the U.K., with a shortfall representing 10.8% of GDP, the IMF said in a report released today. President Barack Obama will unveil long-term proposals for reducing the deficit to sustainable levels and getting the national debt under control on Wednesday. He will have to cut the deficit by at least 5% of GDP to attain his pledge of halving the deficit by the end of his four-year term. The IMF wrote in its Fiscal Monitor report, “Market concerns about sustainability remain subdued in the U.S., but a further delay of action could be fiscally costly, with deficit increases exacerbated by rising yields,” The IMF said most advanced economies are taking steps to reign in budget shortfalls, while two of the world’s three largest economies, Japan and the United States, have delayed such measures. The IMF expressed concern that upcoming elections in Japan and the United States, as well as France, could complicate policy efforts needed to reduce deficit spending.

Silver has gone through the roof lately and is currently trading around 41 dollar pr. ounce – the highest level in 31 years.

Senior Strategist Ib Fredslund Madsen explains why the price is spiking.

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As noted in yesterday’s article, the Canadian trade balance data indeed came out lower than forecast. The effect has been a minor ripple across Canadian dollar (CAD) pairs, driving the Loonie lower against a number of its rivals over the past several hours.

The USD/CAD rose from yesterday’s low of 0.9544 to a current price of 0.9633. Momentum appears to favor the continuation of the CAD’s downturn as well. The GBP/CAD witnessed a similar move, spiking over 150 pips since the publication of the Canadian trade balance data.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) also held interest rates at 1.00%, as expected, noting faster growth than was expected and a surging CAD as the reasons for its decision.

As Canadians gear up for election debates, the nation’s finances appear to be more volatile than usual. Some have cited high oil prices and recent global events for the instability, but tensions surrounding the national election, to be held May 2nd, have no doubt fueled a bit of the uncertainty in Canada.

Investors interested in CAD trading should follow these political debates and any additional data out of Canada over the next few days. The CAD may see some interesting movements as the elections get underway.

The property sector appears to be taking the spotlight from everyone else. First it was Megaworld Corporation (kindly see my colleague’s post here) which took the bullish cue. Now, it is the Henry Sy-backed SM Development Corporation or SMDC in the Philippine Stock Exchange which is making the headlines!

The shares of SMDC had slipped backed to around PHP 7.00 on February after it reached a high of PHP 10.22 last September 2010. It then continued to consolidate within a cup and handle formation. On March 30, SMDC was able to move outside of the downtrend but was still left confined by the PHP 8.00 resistance. Earlier today, however, it finally made a bullish bullish reversal signal when it broke out from the cup and handle pattern.

Now, it could encounter some minor resistance at its present level. Though, its technical set-up still suggests that its minimum upside target of PHP 9.00 could be achieved in the near term.

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Video courtesy of ForexCT – A leading Australian forex broker, liscensed by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, offers the MetaTrader4 and PROfit Platform to retail traders. Other services include Segregated Accounts, Trading workshops, Tutorials, and Commodities trading.

Video courtesy of ForexCT – A leading Australian forex broker, liscensed by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, offers the MetaTrader4 and PROfit Platform to retail traders. Other services include Segregated Accounts, Trading workshops, Tutorials, and Commodities trading.

By Dan Eduard

Yesterday saw a mixed trading session for both the USD and CAD. While both recorded gains against the British pound throughout the day, the yen was able to develop serious bullish momentum in overnight trading, and took in well over 100 pips profit on each of the North American currencies. Today, traders will be paying close attention to both Canadian and US trade balance figures, as they are likely to determine the short term trends for both the loonie and greenback.

Here is a roundup of the day’s main news events:

12:30 GMT- Canadian Trade Balance

Analysts are forecasting the Canadian Trade Balance figure to come in at around 0.6B. If true, it would represent a stark increase over last month’s figure of 0.1B. The CAD could see a jump in afternoon and evening trading today as a result of this indicator, in particular against its main currency rivals the euro and US dollar.

12:30 GMT- US Trade Balance

The US Trade Balance figure is forecasted to come in slightly better than last month’s result. Analysts are calling for a number around -44.1B, as opposed to March’s figure of -46.3B.

While the prediction does represent an improvement, it is unlikely to help the dollar as it still shows the US importing significantly more than it exports. Unless the figure comes in well above expectations, the dollar is likely to see a drop following the release of this report.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

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