Microsoft has launched the public beta of Microsoft Office 365 in India for professionals and small businesses. This comes even as Microsoft Corporation announced it is investing 90% of its research and development budget in cloud computing this year. Office 365 combines Office Web Apps, Exchange Online, SharePoint Online and Lync Online into a cloud service. It was introduced last year in a limited beta version. The public beta is at available at Office365.com. According to the company, globally more than 70% of the organizations that signed up for the limited beta were small businesses with fewer than 25 employees. Over 150,000 organizations have signed up to test it so far. In early morning trading Microsoft numbers are down .25% to 25.02.
Negative outlooks most often lead to downgrades
Statistically more than half of the negative outlooks from Standard and Poor´s have lead to an actual downgrade.
The seniorstrategist talks about previous downgrades of the UK and the US.
Video courtesy of en.jyskebank.tv
Morning Market Snapshot: April 19, 2011
Good Morning. It’s Tuesday, April 19, 2011. At this hour, U.S. equity futures are mixed. Overseas, the Asian markets declined, while the European markets are higher. Seagate (STX), Samsung announce $1.375B strategic alignment. Texas Instruments (TXN) sees broad based strength in second half of FY11. Boeing (BA) selected Pratt & Whitney (UTX) to mature CST-100 design. California federal court rejects class action against Philip Morris USA (MO). Autoliv (ALV) to acquire vision system technologies from Hella. Biogen (BIIB) receives positive opinion from the CHMPHealth Canada on AVONEX.
Forex CT 19-4-11 – Forex News Video Update
Video courtesy of ForexCT – A leading Australian forex broker, liscensed by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, offers the MetaTrader4 and PROfit Platform to retail traders. Other services include Segregated Accounts, Trading workshops, Tutorials, and Commodities trading.
Forex CT Afternoon Thoughts 19-04-11
Video courtesy of ForexCT – A leading Australian forex broker, liscensed by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, offers the MetaTrader4 and PROfit Platform to retail traders. Other services include Segregated Accounts, Trading workshops, Tutorials, and Commodities trading.
US Inaction on Financial Crisis Generates Outlook Downgrade by S&P
Source: ForexYard
Standard and Poor’s ratings agency shifted their assessment of US long-term debt from stable to negative yesterday, citing indecisiveness and inaction on the part of US policymakers. The statement has been commented on as overdue considering the stalemate which has developed in Washington, D.C., over the past two years. Investment portfolios will likely experience an adjustment this week which market participants will want to be on guard against.
Economic News
USD – US Outlook Downgrade by S&P Creates Waves
In response to yesterday’s downgrade of US long-term debt by S&P’s ratings agency, the global stock market became frantic, undergoing a wild sell-off before calming down in later trading. The US dollar pared some of its recent gains against the euro and British pound, with the EUR reaching towards 1.4352 before easing back into its current price near 1.4230 at the start of Asian trading.
Standard and Poor’s ratings agency shifted their assessment of US long-term debt from stable to negative yesterday, citing indecisiveness and inaction on the part of US policymakers. The statement has been commented on as overdue considering the stalemate which has developed in Washington, D.C., over the past two years. Investment portfolios will likely experience an adjustment this week which market participants will want to be on guard against.
The greenback’s pairing against the euro was less affected by the ratings adjustment since the euro zone continues to struggle with its own debt concerns. Many reports on European financial struggles revolve around Spain and Portugal recently, yet Greece recently resurfaced as a growing problem that will need to address debt restructuring and general weakness. An anti-aid mentality spreading through Europe at the moment is also pushing many investors away from the euro zone and into safer assets.
Looking at today’s economic calendar will likely drive most traders to focus on European trading, considering the slew of reports getting published this morning. Yet traders would be unwise to disregard the Building Permits and Housing Starts figures out of the American economy at 13:30 GMT today since the housing market could provide early hints on US investment levels and consumer sentiment heading into a week stricken by S&P’s dire news.
EUR – Inflationary PMI Reports to Make or Break EUR Today
Served up concurrently with a penetrating ratings downgrade by S&P regarding its US debt outlook, the euro zone has been wracked by its own debt concerns which some were optimistically forecasting an end to last week. Greece’s debt has resurfaced as a nagging worry in the euro zone as a debt restructuring appears necessary for the ailing Hellenic economy. Spain and Portugal also loom on the horizon with their own debt and employment ills.
The euro/dollar suffered its largest one-day drop since November yesterday, and plummeted against all of its main currency rivals. These persistent debt woes balanced against the debt outlook downgrade in the United States and actually generated more bearish sentiment for the EUR than the long-overdue S&P report had for the USD. This has helped push the euro negative despite global events elsewhere.
This morning’s string of economic reports on France, Germany and the broader region regarding their respective manufacturing and services inflationary levels should help shore up much of the region’s recent market movement. Positive reports could help put the EUR back into last week’s bullish channel, whereas a continuation of negative data could assist in a trend reversal for the 17-nation common currency.
JPY – Yen Benefits from Investment Shift amid Global Debt Woes
The Japanese yen gained yesterday against almost all of its currency rivals as debt woes in the United States and Europe fostered an environment of heavy risk aversion, driving many investors into the safety of physical assets and low-yield currencies, like the yen. Despite Japanese reconstruction struggles, the island economy’s currency has gained substantially from shifts into and out of carry trades, as well as the sudden risk averse environment in the market these past several trading days.
With today’s economic calendar centered on European manufacturing and services inflation reports, most traders will be evaluating their portfolio stance in regards to euro zone debt and outlook. Over-exposure to European markets may be harmful in the short-run since risk aversion is making such investments appear unappealing to day traders. The yen may make solid gains this week as a result of this market mood.
Crude Oil – OPEC Commentary and Risk Aversion Support Oil above $110
The price of Crude Oil received support yesterday as the Secretary General for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) made remarks regarding the current supply of crude in the global market. The Secretary, Mr. Abdalla el-Badri, remarked that current supply levels are adequate and in line with OPEC forecasts and agreements.
Moreover, the Secretary cited how OPEC’s production output is the same now as it was in December 2010 since no changes were deemed necessary in the organization’s meetings over the past several months. The organization has only recently boosted shipments from alternative members to make up for the loss of Libya’s production output. Overall output remained steady.
Oil prices reached beyond $110 a barrel yesterday following these statements, and following the turmoil in the global stock markets brought on by S&P’s downgrade of its US long-term debt outlook. Market adjustments will likely drive many investors into physical assets over the next several days, helping to lift the price of commodities like oil and gold. Traders will want to keep an eye on such shifts in investment as risk aversion, ever present in today’s market, will likely continue to support oil prices above $110.
Technical News
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD has gone increasingly bearish yesterday, and currently stands at the 1.4230 level. The daily chart’s Slow Stochastic supports this currency cross to fall further today. However, the 4-hour chart’s RSI signals that a bullish reversal will take place today. Entering the pair when the signs are clearer seems to be the wise choice today.
GBP/USD
The pair has been range-trading for a while now, with no specific direction. The Daily chart’s Slow Stochastic providing us with mixed signals. All oscillators on the 4 hour chart do not provide a clear direction as well. Waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies might be a good strategy today.
USD/JPY
The pair has recorded much bearish behavior in the past several days. However, the technical data indicates that this trend may reverse anytime soon. For example, the daily chart’s Stochastic Slow signals that a bullish reversal is imminent. An upward trend today is also supported by the 4-hour chart’s RSI. Going long with tight stops may turn out to pay off today.
USD/CHF
The 4-hour chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, the daily Chart’s RSI is already floating in the oversold territory indicating that a bullish correction might take place in the nearest future. Going long with tight stops might be the right strategy today.
The Wild Card
Gold
Gold prices rose significantly in the last week and peaked at $1497 for an ounce. However, the daily chart’s RSI is floating in an overbought territory suggesting that a recent upwards trend is loosing steam and a bearish correction is impending. This might be a good opportunity for forex traders to enter the trend at a very early stage.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
Silver Joins Gold To Superstardom
Who says silver is cheap?! Silver or XAGUSD in the trading arena is in fact trading at its all-time high along the much coveted gold or XAUUSD. So don’t get left behind… catch the silver express when it takes a halt!
Just recently, silver has managed to mark a new all-time high at just below $42.00 per ounce. While many people would think that it is already bound for a fall since given its tremendous run-up, technical signals of gold (yes gold!) suggest otherwise. What’s interesting in how the price of silver behave is that it has a very strong correlation with the price of gold. This means that, whenever the price of gold rises, silver generally goes up as well. In the same way, the price of silver dips in most times whenever gold falls also. This positive relation between silver and gold can be seen in the chart above.
Now, gold has just broken above an inverted head and shoulders continuation pattern. Given this, we can determine its potential upside by projecting the height of the pattern from the point of breakout at around $1,650.00. So given the positive correlation between the two and the likelihood that gold could hit $1,650.00, it’s therefore likely that silver would rise further and even mark a new all-time high. In the meantime, both silver and gold could retrace a bit given their overbought conditions. Hence, any retracement, in my view, would be a good opportunity to go long at a better price.
Caveat.
More on LaidTrades.com …
New Zealand Dollar Analysis 18th April
NZDUSD double top?
The NZDUSD currency pair looks like it could be forming a near double top formation.
Price is close to closing as a bearish engulfing pattern and given the placement, at the previous swing high, we could be in for some downside. The US dollar has seen gains across the board today and this would be a logical area for price to give some kind of retrace price action.
Anyone trading short from this area should be wary of the resistance turned support just below the daily low. A subsequent daily close below this level would potentially encourage NZD bears to push price lower. It is also worth noting that the NZD interest rate dropped recently and any further cuts could potentially drive this pair lower
EURUSD has closed around 180 pips lower on the day, showing dollar strength, and with the dollar index at a major support level anything is possible from here.
Nick can be found writing and trading at his forex blog
Monday Mayhem – Panic Selling Has Set In!
By Chris Vermeulen, thegoldandoilguy.com
In overnight and pre-market trading the US Dollar posted a strong rally which in turn caused a sharp selloff in the equities market. The market is currently down 1.6 – 2.3% depending on the index traders are following.
Here is what I see on the charts going forward a few days.
Dollar Index – 4 Hour Chart
The Dollar is trading at a resistance level which has in the past triggered strong moves lower. If we get a move lower on the dollar from here then I expect a strong recovery in the equities market and likely higher commodity prices also. If the US Dollar breaks out and rallies above this point then we could see a much further collapse in stocks and commodities.
The falling dollar has also helped to boost crude oil prices the past couple months. One of my trading buddies J.W. Jones at OptionsTradingSignals.com pocketed a nice 86% gain on a USO cash secured put based on the credit sold. Also the weak dollar has his GLD options trade up over 50% already and it has just begun. Jones is an options expert and always seems to find a way to pull money out of the market month after month…
SPY Daily Chart
The daily chart shows a large gap down putting the market in a short term oversold condition. Typically we see the market bounce back up or gap higher the following day. In some cases similar to today the market actually bottoms. So those long the SP500 I feel have a good change of recouping some of today’s decline by waiting for the kneejerk reaction bounce in the next 24-48 hours.
Market Sentiment – Panic Selling At Extremes
Today we are seeing panic selling at levels not seen since the market bottom in March. The green indicator spikes on the chart show very high levels of traders/investors dumping stocks in fear of a collapse. Today’s negative headline news has sparked mass fear and when levels like this are reached you should think of holding long positions for another 1-2 session to see if we get that bounce or market bottom.
Monday Mass Selling Conclusion:
Today’s sharp drop in equities could be an excellent low risk opportunity to add or take a long position here because most of the downside fear for the short term has been eliminated today.
That being said the trend appears to be down on the SP500 now so at this time I am looking to sell into a rally if we get one today, tomorrow or Wednesday.
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Chris Vermeulen
Focusing on the U.S. Dollar: S&P 500, Oil, and Gold Reactions
By JW Jones, optionstradingsignals.com
No More!
The crap rolls out your mouth again
Haven’t changed, your brain is still gelatin
Little whispers circle around your head
Why don’t you worry about yourself instead!
Who are you? Where ya been? Where ya from?
Gossip burning on the tip of your tongue
You lie so much you believe yourself
Judge not l’est ye be judged yourself.
“Holier Than Thou” – Metallica
“The week that was” left many investors running for the exits on Monday and Tuesday as prices in the equity, energy, and precious metals markets plunged. The U.S. Dollar index futures tried to work their way out of a descending channel, but came up unsuccessful. The U.S. Dollar index rallied in several morning sessions, but usually was met with heavy selling later in the day which either muted gains or pushed the dollar index lower. The other notable development this week was some Fed drivel which solidified the Central Bank’s continued efforts to devalue the U.S. currency and hold short term interest rates hostage. In addition, it seems more likely with every press release from a Fed Governor that Quantitative Easing II will expire in June and Quantitative Easing III will not be pursued unless economic conditions worsen.
Recent statements from the Federal Reserve chairman and several of his minions believe that we are not experiencing real inflation in the economy. Apparently the Fed does not believe that most Americans need food to eat or gasoline to drive to their jobs, assuming they have one since around 16% of the adult population capable of working is either unemployed, underemployed, or taking part time work. Apparently, they seem to believe, the increase in food commodity prices are only going to last for the short term and have little consequence according to the Fed. We have also been told that energy prices are just a blip and that it is nothing more than a short term market perturbation. Gold and silver prices continue to break out to new highs, but still we have no inflation.
Long-term readers known that I generally do not get involved in macroeconomic discussions about inflation, deflation, stagflation, or any other type of “flation” because I am not an expert in those areas. What I do know is that food prices are rising in most countries and energy prices are volatile and seem likely to continue to probe higher, even if Goldman Sachs analysts disagree. Yes, Goldman Sachs can be wrong and there is a relatively strong precedent for them to enter into rather onerous financial transactions.
Speaking of Goldman Sachs, does it seem odd that Goldman Sachs comes out and says oil prices are going to continue lower and a large selloff takes place? Then in a strange turn of affairs, the very next day Bank of America energy analysts say that oil prices could go to $160/barrel. I wonder if any Goldman Sachs energy traders used the statements to scoop up oil at a cheap price? Is that a conflict of interest?
At the very least, the timing was interesting and the Bank of America comments are also intriguing, not to mention the fact that oil prices have bounced back since Goldman’s entrance into the void of market predictions. I wonder if this latest prediction is as accurate as their prediction that oil prices were going to $200/barrel in 2008? Finally, is Goldman Sachs playing the Federal Reserve’s song loud and clear for everyone to hear? All of these questions will go unanswered most likely, but at the very least they are thought provoking.
Where do I think oil is headed? A one word answer – higher. Obviously I could be wrong, but my stance on oil is not just about tension in the Middle East or increasing demand from emerging markets. In fact, I believe that oil will continue to work higher because we are in the later stages of this bull market cycle and most cycles end with commodity prices pushing higher and energy related stocks putting up solid gains. We are in that period now, and while it could last for several months or even a year potentially, I believe that we have further room to run. More than anything else, I firmly believe that the U.S. Dollar Index is the most critical chart to watch in coming days and weeks. The daily chart is shown below:
If the dollar breaks down which aligns with my expectations, I would expect it to test the lows reached back in November of 2009. If we see prices test the November lows in coming days/weeks, I expect oil, precious metals, and equity prices to continue to work higher. However, we could see a huge breakout in all three asset classes if the U.S. Dollar Index tests the November lows and they do not hold. If a breakdown transpires, we could see a huge rally in gold and oil. It can be assumed that equity prices would rally, but it would depend on how orderly the U.S. Dollar sold off. A quick glance at the key levels in oil futures can be seen below:
As far as the future in equities prices, we continue to have an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the SPX daily chart. If the pattern plays out it would presage a rally that could extend as high as 1,450 on the SPX. However, a breakdown below the key 1,300 area presents a possible retest of the 1,250 lows. Right now I’m leaning to the bullish side on the back of a sliding dollar and my expectations that earnings may not be as bad as expected. Until we get a breakout higher or a breakdown lower, I continue to believe the S&P 500 is pinned in a range between 1,300 – 1,340. The daily chart below illustrates the inverse head and shoulders pattern as well as the key channel high and low:
Finally, gold futures sold off early in the week but have since rallied back and have taken out previous highs. Silver futures also broke out to new highs after experiencing selling pressure early in the week. After the Federal Reserve made it rather clear that they were not going to tighten interest rates in the short run, precious metals and oil futures have rallied. While the two may not go hand in hand, it is a rather interesting coincidence, particularly when various financial institutions have different opinions about the future price of oil referenced above. If the U.S. Dollar index falters, I expect gold and silver to continue higher. The daily chart of gold is shown below:
In closing, I am going to be focused on the U.S. Dollar Index futures next week looking for clues as to whether we are going to see a breakout, a breakdown, or whether we will remain in a range bound market. At this point anything could happen, but unlike the Federal Reserve I’m leaning into the idea that inflation is here, and unfortunately it might have just arrived. If the Federal Reserve becomes too accommodative and waits too long to raise interest rates to slow down inflation, then the Federal Reserve might have not only let Mr. Inflation in the door, but they likely just asked him to stay for dinner.
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JW Jones
