Bear Alert on Southeast Asia Cement Holdings (CMT)

Putting your money into the shares of Southeast Asia Cement Holdings or CMT in the Philippine Stock Exchange is a bad idea for me as of the moment. Well, at least that’s what its chart is telling me.

CMT has actually performed so well during the past 6 weeks when it bounced from a low of around PHP 1.20 all the way up near PHP 1.80. But don’t get fooled by this price action as looking further will tell you that this recent run-up could be nothing more than a short term rally. As you can see from its chart above, CMT broke down from a head and shoulders pattern. Shortly after it did, it found its way to a low of PHP 1.20. It then rebounded into what appears to be a rising wedge pattern. Now, a rising wedge is generally a bearish pattern since it also represents a temporary bounce in prices. In any case, a fall below the wedge’s support could send it all the way back to PHP 1.20. Notice also that peak of the wedge coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement that I drew. This further indicate the possibility of a break down soon.

So beware and stay on your toes.