Month: March 2011

March 11 (Bloomberg) — Marissa Mayer, Google Inc.’s vice president of search products, talks about the company’s response to the earthquake in Japan including Google Person Finder service, Google’s leadership and the outlook for hiring. Mayer speaks with Emily Chang and Cory Johnson on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg West.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Nuclear energy-related stocks are declining today in the midst of Japans struggle to contain the potential for a serious nuclear accident at its nuclear plant damaged by Fridays earthquake and tsunami. Investors seem to think the situation there will dampen enthusiasm for new nuclear energy projects by telling a cautionary tale about what can happen when there is an unforeseen disaster.

March 14 (Bloomberg) — Wolfgang Munchau, co-founder of the Eurointelligence website, talks about the European Union’s decision to broaden the size and scope of its 440 billion-euro ($614 billion) bailout fund and ease the terms of Greek rescue loans. He speaks with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television’s “On The Move.”

March 14 (Bloomberg) — Simon Wong, an economist at Standard Chartered Plc, discusses the the Bank of Japan injecting a record amount of cash into the financial system to shield the economy from the effects of the nation’s strongest earthquake on record. Wong, speaking with Deirdre Bolton on Bloomberg Television’s “InsideTrack,” also talks about the outlook for Japan’s economy. (Source: Bloomberg)

By GCI Forex Research

USDJPY Movement

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, USD weakened 1.33% against the JPY on Friday and closed at 81.88.

In the US, New York Fed President William Dudley, indicated that the US economy has improved considerably in the past six months and rising oil prices are unlikely to derail its recovery.

The BOJ stated that it will inject ¥12 trillion ($146 billion) into the financial system to bolster market confidence after the earthquake. Today morning in Japan, industrial production declined by 1.3% in January from 3.3% in December. Additionally, capacity utilization rose by 3.6% in January from 3.0% in December.

In the Asian session at 4:00GMT, the pair is trading higher from the New York close, by 0.23%, at 82.07.

The first short term resistance is at 83.13, followed by 84.18. The pair is expected to find support at 81.19 and the subsequent support level at 80.30.

The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

By GCI Forex Research

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)

USD

USDJPY fell sharply to a low of 80.60 during the Asia session but soon reversed course after the BoJ announced Y12 trn worth of same-day liquidity operations. There was no FX reaction to the BoJ’s later decision to raise the ceiling on its asset purchase facility to Y10 trn from Y5 trn previously. EURUSD traded 1.3917-1.3985, USDJPY 80.60-82.45. The Nikkei-225 came under immediate selling pressure from the open, and is down -6.18% at the time of writing. Despite events in Japan, the S&P500 still managed to rise +0.71% on Friday, and the VIX closed lower on the day, finishing just above 20.
US data was mixed. February retail sales expanded by +1.0%, in line with consensus estimates. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index unexpectedly fell 9.3 points to 68.2 in early March. Interestingly, our US economics team observe that a sharp rise in inflation expectations drove much of the decline: long-term inflation expectations jumped to 3.2% from 2.9%, and short-term inflation expectations rose substantially to 4.6% from 3.4%. Although this is only a single month’s data, the uptick in expectations may embolden some of the more hawkish FOMC members to speak against another round of asset purchases.

EUR

Eurozone leaders made a number of euro-positive announcements over the weekend. Leaders pledged to increase the effective lending capacity of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to ?440 bn, and agreed to lower the interest rate charged on Greece’s financial rescue package by 1%. The maturity of loans to Greece was also extended to 7.5 years. These outcomes had been expected to emerge from the upcoming EU Leaders summit on March 24-25, but have now come sooner than many investors anticipated.
Most significantly, in a surprising turn of events, EU leaders agreed to authorise the EFSF to buy sovereign bonds in the primary market. This in particular is likely to prove to be a significant euro positive on Monday. Germany’s Chancellor Merkel said “I hope that this will also be a good message to the world in terms of the euro as a major currency.”

JPY

News headlines continue to describe the aftermath of Japan’s tragic earthquake and tsunami. Amid the rescue operation, efforts are also continuing to deal with malfunctioning nuclear power plants. Prime Minister Kan declared that this is the greatest national crisis since 1945.
The BoJ made no change to the policy rate which remains in a range between 0 and 0.1%. The maximum size of the asset purchase facility was doubled to JPY10 trn.
S&P said the earthquake has no immediate impact on Japan’s sovereign rating. Moody’s said it is “very unlikely” that the earthquake would affect Japan’s rating.
Both Kan and Economy Minister Yosano said the government would fight decisively against speculative moves. Yosano, quoting Finance Minister Noda, said that FX and interest rate movements would be closely watched. Yosano added that the economic impact of the disaster is likely to come to more than JPY20 trn. On Friday, Finance Minister Noda said the government’s fiscal position should not be an obstacle to responding to the crisis, and both he and Kan have called for a supplementary budget. Yosano said the government would cooperate more than usual with the BoJ and he predicted that the BoJ would take both traditional and non-traditional monetary policy steps as needed.

CAD

USDCAD climbed about 15 pips after the February employment count rose by fewer than expected. Only +15.1K new jobs were added against consensus expectations of +25.0K. The unemployment rate also steadied at 7.8% despite market expectations that it would fall to 7.7%.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDJPY 80.62 support.
EURUSD BULLISH Opens gap up; the pair targets 1.4000/36 resistance area ahead of 1.4086. Near-term support lies at 1.3752.
USDJPY BEARISH Sell-off during the day found support at 80.62 ahead of 80.22 key low. Resistance lies at 83.30.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Violation of 1.5977/64 would trigger a negative tone and expose 1.5892 Fibonacci level next. Initial resistance is defined at 1.6213.
USDCHF BEARISH Focus is maintained on 0.9236/00 support zone, move below this would expose 0.8951. Initial resistance is at 0.9369 ahead of 0.9421.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL 1.0202 and 0.9944 mark the near-term directional triggers with key resistance defined at 1.0256.
USDCAD BEARISH Move below 0.9668 would expose 0.9600. Near-term resistance lies at 0.9803.
EURCHF BULLISH A push above 1.3040 would expose 1.3086, while initial support is at 1.2827.
EURGBP BULLISH Following the recovery through 0.8654/72 resistance area, the pair pressures 0.8691 ahead of 0.8777. Near-term support is at 0.8534.
EURJPY BULLISH As long as support at 111.96 holds, focus is on upside with initial resistance at 115.29 ahead of 116.00.

Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

By Russell Glaser

The Japanese yen came off its yearly high following a massive injection of 7 trillion yen into the Japanese financial system to help ease the burden on financial institutions and facilitate payment settlements. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) also suggested it may take further steps to loosen monetary policy in light of the stress on the financial system from the earthquake and tsunami.

The decision by the BOJ to assist the financial system comes after an earthquake and tsunami has caused the worst crisis the country has faced since WWII. Following the injection of cash by the BOJ, the USD/JPY came off of its low of 80.63 and rose to a high of 82.40. Highlighting the stress in the financial markets, the Nikkei 225 is currently down 6.2%.

Today’s market events:

JPY – Monetary Policy Statement – Tentative
The BOJ may take unorthodox measures to loosen monetary policy in light of the grave national crisis. Any new policy measures would be a negative for the yen. Support for the USD/JPY is found at 81.55, followed by 81.10, and this morning’s low of 80.60. Resistance is the overnight high of 82.40 and Friday’s high at 83.30.

EUR – Industrial Production m/m – 10:00 GMT
Expectations: 0.4%. Previous: 0.3%.
A positive reading will be a catalyst for the euro versus the dollar and help to strengthen the EUR/USD bullish trend. Traders should initially be targeting the overnight high at 1.3980 followed by this year’s high at 1.4035.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By Warren Seah

Through years, experts have come up and experiment many trading strategies so that they can find the suitable strategy to reap huge profits while trying to minimize losses. As a novice trader that begins to explore the world of trading, it is important to know how the basics of forex first and the risks involved. Subsequently prior to trading the markets, you need to have a way to tackle the market (a forex trading strategy) to get what you are looking for profits.

In order to do so, you have to start off with some development of basic strategies and rules that make them work. You have to first understand what kind of trader you are or your trader profile. This is heavily related to how you are going to define your forex trading strategy.

There are basically four main points to think about before you risk that money in the live markets.

1. Fundamental or Technical

Are you going to trade with just only fundamentals, technical or both? Developing your own set of trading rules defines your rationality during live conditions, failure to stick to your own rules result in failure as you’re trading through your own emotions by then.

2. Currency to trade

With the vast sea of different currency pairs, it is not wise to go after all the pairs thinking that you’ll be more profitable. It will just result in you being more disillusioned and loss of focus in trading. Develop your acumen on 1 to 2 currency pairs and learn about their behaviour. You will be better at identifying opportunities quicker and capitalising on them.

3. Time frame

There are a number of time frame to choose from and there are only 1 or 2 time frame you will find yourself comfortable trading on. Developing a strategy for a 1 hour chart may have a weakened effect on a 15 min chart and determine on how long you are willing to hold on to your positions.

For example a trader with his day time job may prefer to a long term trading strategy holding onto long term positions as he is unable to monitor the trade all the time. While short term traders will just hold on to their positions for a few minutes to hours as they might not want to expose their positions to too much risk overnight or over the weekend.

4. Write a Trading Plan in Hard Copy

For every trade that you made, it is always wise to have your trading plan drawn up with your defined forex trading strategy and rules in place. That way you won’t get caught off guard nor put yourself into difficult situations where you realize that the current trade you’ve executed is not your style of trading.

About the Author

Warren Seah

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GBP-CHF

The pair stands around the supporting area from December 2008 at – 1.5120 (the brown line) that broke in 2010 and ever since crosses the area back and forth.

The daily graph is situated on the secondary support level at 1.4855 (the red line) which is at 61.8, and which fixes all the last uptrend.

If this level will break there is a need to think about only other short targets between 1.4650-1.4600, the changes resulting from the daily time frame.

As can be seen by the graph bellow:

NZD-USD

On the daily graph the pair is located on the area of point D of the pattern ABCD. In the case in which the pattern will fail and the supporting level will not will not last, the breakdown of 0.7320 will lead us to the next supporting level in the area of 0.7200 (red area).

As long as, the supporting level resists, it is expected to repair itself and go back to 38.2 Fibonacci at the price of 0.7515.

As can be seen by the graph bellow:

Potential Trade

Long on the 4 hour time frame above 0.7455

Stop at- 0.7400

Target at- 0.7515

As can be seen by the graph bellow:

RISK DISCLAIMER

Forex trading involves high risk. Before any trade, you should consider carefully the investment objectives and the level of risk. The data sent by mail is not necessarily real-time data or precise. Real-Forex is not liable for the losses resulting from the utilization of the data. Real-Forex (Finnocorp Trading Solution Ltd

.) is not liable for losses or damages as a result of reliance on the information provided by e-mail or on the overall data, quotes, charts, signals buy / sell. It is hereby clarified that the investor must be aware of risks involved in trading in financial markets, which is a form of investment that may contain potential risks.

Real-Forex team

Trade like the pro’s with a true ECN Forex broker

By James Woolley

I have been investing in stocks for several years now, and first started as soon as I had a few thousand put aside in my early 20s. Unfortunately I lost virtually all of this money in the next couple of years, but I’m glad I did because it taught me some valuable lessons and helped me to evolve as an investor.

Right at the beginning I had a very modest income coming in, so I saw stock market investing as a way of making some serious money. Therefore I automatically excluded all of the mid and large-cap stocks and looked for the next big thing amongst the tiddlers.

I figured that it was simply not worth looking for gains of say 10-15% every year, because with the amounts of money I was investing it would hardly be worth it. Instead I wanted to find stocks that could multi-bag over the next couple of years.

Lots of investors do this and some may be lucky enough to find one that really takes off. However the failure rate amongst these smaller companies is so high, and it is exceptionally difficult to find winning stocks. I unfortunately managed to lose lots of money investing in a few high risk technology companies who joined this long list of failures.

This didn’t necessarily put me off, however, because as soon as I had saved up some money, I was back again. This time I put it all into a really small property company. However three years later it had still not gone anywhere so I sold it for a small loss.

Eventually I had built up a nice amount of money elsewhere and decided I was only going to invest in mid and large cap stocks, and ideally those that pay dividends. This was a big turning point for me because I was suddenly making consistent profits.

I started scrutinising financial accounts and thinking about solid long term investments, and now look for companies with sustained earnings and dividend growth. I have a few different strategies, both long term and short term, but the point is that I will not go near any companies that are the slightest bit risky.

I found that you can make excellent profits each year just by investing in boring long term growth stocks. Plus if you use technical analysis, you can also make some excellent profits taking short term positions in these stocks as well.

So the point is that I knew I had to evolve as an investor if I was serious about making money from the stock market. My old strategies were just not good enough, and were far too risky. So if you find that you could be doing a lot better yourself, I suggest you analyze your trading history and see where you are going wrong. You may find that one simple change could make a big difference to your overall results.

About the Author

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