Month: March 2011

Written by FastBrokers House
2011-03-22 00:00

It’s been a very slow day in Asia with the majors trading inside 30 pip ranges. Japanese financial markets returned after a long weekend, with the Nikkei putting on an additional 3%.

USD/JPY opened at 81.10, rose to 81.30 just before the Tokyo open as dealers bet on more BOJ action. These positions were then cut in early afternoon trade as it became obvious that the BOJ were not going to intervene. Ranges: 80.88/81.30, EUR/JPY 115.03/52

EUR/USD closed in NY at 1.4220 and has spent the majority of the session near that same level. Range: 1.4201/31

AUD/USD tried to rally in early trade as traders again bet on a risk-on day and possible intervention. This momentum also dissipated quite quickly when the pair couldn’t best the overnight highs. Ranges: 1.0035/67

Cable has been similarly quiet ahead of the CPI data in a few hours time. Ranges: 1.6290/1.6316, EUR/GBP .8709/25

Market Commentary provided by FastBrokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

The Mozilla Corporation officially launched its Firefox 4 web browser today, 8 months after it first entered public beta testing. The primary goals for the new browser were improvements in performance, standards support, and the user interface. Some are wondering whether Mozilla Firefox, currently the world’s most popular web browser, has lost its edge. The 8-month beta period was longer than Microsoft’s (NASDAQ:MSFT) 6-month beta for Internet Explorer 9, which launched last week, and in the 2 years since Google’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) Chrome browser was launched, it has upgraded 10 times. Mozilla has had trouble meeting release dates historically, and Firefox 4 required an astounding 12 beta releases before the company was willing to sign off on the product. The firm has now decided to step back and reevaluate its product plans, with the goal moving forward to complete smaller, less ambitious releases in a timelier manner. Mozilla VP Mike Shaver explained, “The intention here is not to rush features, it’s to let features that are done get to users without waiting for features that aren’t.” Certain features of the new browser had been finished for months, but couldn’t be released separately because they relied on other, uncompleted features. Firefox 4 has an overhauled, faster JavaScript engine, bookmark syncing, a clean new user interface, and it still runs on Windows XP, whereas even Microsoft’s IE 9 does not. From an overall performance standpoint, however, Firefox 4 trails both Chrome and IE 9, and it still separates its address bar and search bar, whereas the other browsers have combined those into 1 integrated bar. The Mozilla Corporation is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Mozilla Foundation, a 501(c)(3) organization that exists to support and provide leadership to the open source Mozilla project. The Mozilla Corporation had revenue of $91.3 million in 2009, the most recent year available.

Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) announced today that their Android App Store has launched with over 3800 applications available for download, with a different paid app being made available for free every day. Users can download apps directly from http:www.amazon.comappstore or download an application for their Android device to access the store directly. Meanwhile, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has sued Amazon.com over its use of the phrase “App Store,” accusing the online retailer of trademark infringement.

Equity futures are pointing to a flat open this morning with the Dow Jones Industrial Average looking to open 12 points higher while the broader S&P500 index is looking to open 0.40 points higher. Moving fast in the pre-market session are shares of Harvest Natural Resources (NYSE:HNR) up 7.2% after the company announced that it will be selling its Utah Oil and Gas assets for $215 million. Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:BM) is up 5%, and BJs Wholesale (NYSE:BJ) is up 3.3% after news that Leonard Green may be interested in purchasing the company. Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) is up 2.9% after being upgraded by Credit Suisse. Shares of Walgreen’s (NYSE:WAG) are down 2.7% and finally, Canadian Pacific Railway (NYSE:CP) shares are down 5.2% after the company was downgraded at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

By GCI Forex Research

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)

USD

Risk sentiment has been stable in Asian hours, mainly as a reaction to more stable conditions at Japan’s nuclear reactors and yesterday’s constructive performance in US stock markets. Prime Minister Kan said that the nuclear situation is getting better bit by bit and that a reconstruction plan must be prepared. Nevertheless more progress is needed before the situation can be evaluated as safe. Prospects of rising reconstruction activity in Japan have also increased demand for regional stocks. The Nikkei advanced by 3.70% at the time of writing. The euro has also been stable, mostly due to firm rate expectations backed by ECB members’ hawkish monetary policy stance. EURUSD traded 1.4208-1.4230 overnight and USDJPY traded 80.85-81.23. Today’s focus will be on UK CPI for February, Canadian retail sales and several speeches by Fed members and SNB Chairman Hildebrand.

EUR

Eurogroup President Juncker and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) will have a capital base of EUR700 bn-EUR80 bn paid in, with the rest callable and that the ESM would have the ability to intervene in the primary debt market. German Finance Minister Schaeuble said the German share of ESM capital would be around 27%.

ECB President Trichet and ECB Executive Board Member Tumpel-Gugerell reinforced the message that ‘exceptionally strong vigilance’ is needed on inflation. Even though risk aversion and growth concerns have dampened expectations for an ECB move in April, we still expect them to remain on track for early tightening.

As long as risk sentiment remains stable, the euro is likely to be driven by relative rate expectations and capital flows. The ECB’s more hawkish monetary policy stance is set to keep rate expectations supported. Our equity flow monitor shows the Eurozone continues to attract equity-related capital inflows.

JPY

The yen continues to trade in a tight range versus the greenback. Given the high probability of coordinated G7 intervention we expect selling interest in USDJPY to remain relatively low. As it would take a material change in Fed rate expectations to drive the pair materially higher, it’s likely to trade in a narrow range for now..

GBP

CPI data is due in the UK. At 4.1% y/y, our economists expect a slightly lower reading than the consensus for 4.2% (previous 4.0%). Inflation and hence rate expectations will remain the pound’s main driver for now.

CHF

The Swiss franc has been capped versus the euro as risk sentiment stabilizes this week. Investors are also focused on comments by SNB members to evaluate the outlook for policy tightening. We believe the franc’s impact on monetary conditions and export competitiveness will keep the SNB cautious about changing its monetary policy stance. SNB Chairman Hildebrand recently said the economy will slow over the year given that CHF strength is a burden to exports.

Hildebrand is due to speak again today and we expect no change in tone. The franc should therefore continue to be driven more by external factors.

With the ECB expected to begin hiking rates in April and the SNB likely to lag for several months, we expect relative rate expectations to drive EURCHF higher in the short to medium term. As such we recommended re-entering a long EURCHF trade at 1.2825 for a move higher to 1.3500 with a stop below the all-time low at 1.2400.

Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

By GCI Forex Research

GBPUSD Movement

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, GBP rose 0.54% against the USD and closed at 1.6308.

In the US, National Association of Realtors reported that the existing home sales in the US contracted by 9.6% (M-o-M) in February compared to 3.4% growth in January.

The pair opened the Asian session at 1.6308, and is trading at 1.6301 at 4.00GMT. The pair is trading 0.04% lower from the New York session close.

The pair has its first short term resistance at 1.6353, followed by the next resistance at 1.6404. The first support is at 1.6225, with the subsequent support at 1.6148.

With a series of UK economic releases today, including Consumer and Retail Price Index, trading in the pair is expected to be influenced by the resulting cues from these releases.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and is trading just above its 50 Hr moving average.

Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Source: ForexYard

This week’s trading session opened with a sharp bullish spike in crude oil prices, which was a direct effect of the NATO attack in Libya. In addition, the most significant development in the FX market was the bullish euro. Expectations that the ECB will hike rates in April continue to impact the market, and as a result the EUR/USD pair hit a 4-month high.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Slides vs. Majors as Risk-Appetite Recovers

The U.S. dollar fell against most of its major currency counterparts on Monday’s trading session. The dollar dropped about 80 pips vs. the euro and the EUR/USD pair is trading above the 1.4200 level. The dollar also fell about 100 pips vs. the British pound.

The dollar fell to its lowest level in 15 months against a basket of currencies on Monday as risk-appetite in the market has risen. Investors have embraced leveraged risk trades in stocks and commodity-linked currencies and by so supported demand for the euro and the sterling.

The dollar’s fall was also driven by the surge of the euro. Demand for the 17-nation currency steadily increases on bets that the European Central Bank will hike rates in April from a record low of 1.00%. The Federal Reserve (Fed) on the other hand is likely to maintain its relatively loose policy, which in turn weakens demand for the greenback.

Looking ahead for today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher is expected to deliver a speech regarding future American monetary policy. The speech is scheduled at 11:35 GMT, and is expected to ignite volatility in the market. Traders are advised to follow Fisher’s speech and to take under consideration that a dovish speech has potential to further weaken the dollar.

EUR – Euro Rallies on Bets ECB Will Hike Rates

The euro strengthened against most of the major currencies during yesterday’s trading session. The 17-nation currency gained about 80 pips against the U.S. dollar on Monday, and the EUR/USD pair reached as high as the 1.4240 level, hitting a 4-month high. The euro also saw a 100 gain against the Japanese yen.

The euro rose yesterday on expectations that the economic uncertainty caused by Japan’s nuclear crisis may not deter the European Central Bank (ECB) from raising interest rates next month. ECB seniors have commented last week that strong vigilance is necessary to keep a lid on inflation, hinting that an interest rates hike is imminent. In addition, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said last week that he has nothing to add to his March 3rd comments, also alluding that the ECB will probably increase rates in April.

It currently seems that the European currency may continue to ride the interest rates-hike speculations in the short-term, especially as the Federal Reserve is expected to proceed with the super-loose policy.

As for today, no significant economic data is expected from the euro-zone, and traders are advised to follow the leading releases from the British economy. Special attention should be given to the British Consumer Price Index release. If the report will indeed show that inflation in Britain continues to rise, demand for both the pound and the euro might strengthen.

JPY – Yen Tumbles as Nuclear Risk Eases

The Japanese yen fell on all fronts on Monday’s trading session. The yen saw a 40 pip drop against the U.S. dollar, and the USD/JPY pair is trading above the 81.00 level. The yen also saw a 100 pips fall against the euro and a 120 pips fall against the British pound.

The yen declined against all its major rivals after officials made progress in cooling nuclear reactors at a crippled plant. Investors still fear that Japan will act further to weaken the yen after the Group of Seven nations intervened last week in the market, in the attempt to weaken the yen.

The stabilization of the Japanese nuclear crisis has also helped to restore risk-appetite in the market, which further decreases demand for the Japanese currency as a safe-haven asset.

Looking ahead to today, traders are advised to stay alert for any update regarding a potential intervention in the market by Japan. An intervention may take place in the case that the yen will once again begin to strengthen. Special attention should of course be given to the Japanese nuclear situation, as any news on this issue is likely to impact the market.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Stabilizes Above $103 a Barrel

Crude oil began this week’s trading with a prices spike after NATO forces attacked Libyan government positions. Crude oil prices jumped to over $104 a barrel after opening the week at $101.31.

Crude is traded near the highest level in more than a week as airstrikes on Libya and the threat of contagion in the Middle-East pushed energy prices upwards. In addition, Libyan output has fallen to less than 400,000 barrels a day from an estimated 1.59 barrels a day in January.

Throughout Monday’s trading session crude oil prices remained relatively steady, and a barrel of crude is currently trading near $103.50 a barrel.

As for today, traders are advised to follow all the developments from Libya as this conflict there is now the main catalyst in crude trading. In case that the conflict will escalate, oil prices might climb even further.

Technical News

EUR/USD

There is a very distinct bullish channel formed on the daily chart, as the pair is currently floating in the middle of it. In addition, as both the MACD and the RSI on the 4-hour chart continue to provide bullish signals, it seems that the pair might rise further today, with potential to reach the 1.4300 level.

GBP/USD

The cable is in the midst of a bullish reversal, which is about to be completed at the 1.6350 level. If the pair will manage to breach through the 1.6350 resistance level today, it has potential to climb towards the 1.6450 level. Going long appears to be the right strategy today.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY continues to recover from the recent low of 76.40 and is currently trading above the 81.00 level. Nevertheless, as a bearish cross took place on the 4-hour chart, it seems that a bearish correction might be imminent. Going short with tight stops seems to be the right choice today.

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF pair mainly saw flat trading over the past several days, remaining near the 0.9050 level. Currently, as the 4-hour chart and the daily chart are providing mixed signals, it seems that traders should better stay out of this one today.

The Wild Card

Gold prices gained significantly over the past week. In just a few days gold climbed from $1,380to $1,435 an ounce. However, as a bearish cross takes place on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic, it appears that a bearish correction may be impending. This might be a good chance for forex traders to catch the trend in its beginning.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

EUR-JPY

It can be seen in the weekly time frame that the price creates a range area between the levels of 107 to 116 after which the break out went up above the down trend line (fragmentary blue). According to our estimates, the break out of the level 116 will bring the uptrend until the level of 124 (depth of the range) and retracement of the downtrend (broken red line) which is in between one third to two thirds.

As can be seen by the graph bellow:

In the daily time frame the range and target can be seen in more detail if the break out above the level of 116 will occur.

As can be seen by the graph bellow:  

Potential Trade

In the 4 hour time frame can be seen that the price broke out and the downtrend line and our estimation that from this point the uptrend will begin. In any case we suggest two possibilities for trade.

1.    In the break out of the level 116 you can enter the long position.

Stop: 113.50

Target: 124

2.    In the breakdown of the level 114 you can enter the short position.

Stop: 116

First target: 111 Second target: 110

As can be seen by the graph bellow:

USD-CAD

In the daily time frame can be seen that the price moves down in a reduced channel (in yellow). Our estimation is that the price will stop in the area and will be retraced between one third to two thirds Fibonacci of the downtrend within the channel (broken black line), in other words between he level of 1.0000 to 1.0282.

As can be seen by the graph bellow:

In the 4 hour time frame can be seen that the price broke out the upper side of the parallel downward channel, and returned to it when it is checked by the support level 0.9750. We estimate that if this level will keep the price and will be able to keep it above the uptrend line, most probably uptrend will occur with targets indicated in the daily time frame.

As can be seen by the graph bellow:

Potential Trade

When the break out of the price level reaches 0.9860, one can wait for the upward price structure creation (drawn in the graph), and thus, to enter the long position. 

First target: 1.0000

Second target: 1.0160

Third target: 1.0280

As can be seen by the graph bellow:

RISK DISCLAIMER

Forex trading involves high risk. Before any trade, you should consider carefully the investment objectives and the level of risk. The data sent by mail is not necessarily real-time data or precise. Real-Forex is not liable for the losses resulting from the utilization of the data. Real-Forex (Finnocorp Trading Solution Ltd

.) is not liable for losses or damages as a result of reliance on the information provided by e-mail or on the overall data, quotes, charts, signals buy / sell. It is hereby clarified that the investor must be aware of risks involved in trading in financial markets, which is a form of investment that may contain potential risks.

Real-Forex team

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The shares of Belle Corporation or BEL in the Philippine Stock Exchange made a big noise in 2010 when it pocketed a handsome 224% whet it ended the year at PHP 4.60 from an opening of PHP 1.420 during the start of the year. During the first three weeks of 2011, it continued to fire away some crackers as it reached a high of PHP 6.490. Since then, things became quite for BEL until today.

After peaking at the said high on January 19, bears looked to have taken over BEL especially when it broke down from what appeared to be a double top pattern. So once BEL fell below PHP 5.50, it continued to fall to a low of PHP 4.420. It was able to rebound but remained stuck between a trading range for several weeks. Today, things seem to be bright for BEL again when it broke out from a small triple bottom or a trading range. The only resistance blocking its way is the neckline of the former double top at PHP 5.500. But with volume to support today’s move and the MACD just turning positive, it is likely that BEL will continue to move higher in the coming days. Note that the RSI is also above 50 but below 70, meaning that it has gained some upward momentum but is not yet overbought.

More on LaidTrades.com …

USDCAD’s fall from 0.9973 extended to as low as 0.9749. Deeper decline towards 0.9667 previous low is still possible in a couple of days, a breakdown below this level will indicate that the long term downtrend from 1.0851 (May 25, 2010 high) has resumed, then next target would be at 0.9500 zone. Resistance is at 0.9865, only break above this level could trigger another rise towards 1.0000.

Forex Signals