By CountingPips.com
The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that futures speculators decreased their short positions of the US dollar against the other major currencies. Non-commercial futures positions, those taken by hedge funds and large speculators, were overall net short the US dollar by $27.07 billion against other major currencies as of the March 15th data release. This is a decline from the total short position of $35.36 billion on March 8th, according to the CFTC data and calculations by Reuters which calculates the dollar positions against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
This week’s notable changes included Japanese yen positions almost doubling from the week prior while the British pound sterling and New Zealand dollar fell over to the short side in the latest data.
EuroFx: Currency speculators decreased their net long positions for the euro against the U.S. dollar after three consecutive weeks of rises. Futures positions in the euro fell to a total of 46,316 long positions as of March 15th following a total of 62,294 long positions on March 8th.
The COT report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity. Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, where as a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar. The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.
GBP: British pound sterling bets dropped over to the short side last week to a total of 225 short contracts after registering 33,906 long contracts on March 8th. This is the first time pound sterling contracts have been on the short side since January.
JPY: The Japanese yen net contracts advanced as of March 15th to a total of 30,230 long contracts following a total of 16,656 net long contracts reported on March 8th. Yen positions have been on somewhat of a roller coaster the past five weeks and that is not likely to change in the next few weeks with G7 central banks agreeing to intervene to stablize the yen’s volatile moves from Japan’s earthquake and tsunami.
CHF: Swiss franc long positions rose for a fifth consecutive week to a total of 27,640 long contracts, according to the COT data as of March 15th. Franc contracts totaled a net of 23,661 long contracts on March 8th. This is the highest level for franc positions since late 2009.
CAD: The Canadian dollar positions dropped from their highest position in over a year on March 8th to a total position of 56,991 contracts as of March 15th. CAD net contracts had advanced for two straight weeks to a total of 77,544 net long contracts as of March 8th.
AUD: The Australian dollar long positions reversed course after three consecutive weeks of rises. AUD contracts totaled a net amount of 47,951 long contracts as of March 15th after AUD positions had totaled 73,695 net long contracts on March 8th.
NZD: New Zealand dollar futures positions headed lower for a fifth straight week and fell over to the short side for the first time since June 2010. NZD contracts fell to a total of 2,809 short positions as of March 15th from a total of 4,346 long contracts on March 8th.
MXN: Mexican peso long contracts have risen for two consecutive weeks to a total of 121,575 net long contracts as of March 15th. MXN positions had increased to 113,165 net long contracts on March 8th.
COT Data Summary as of March 15, 2011
Large Speculators Net Positions vs. the US Dollar
Euro: +46,316
British pound sterling: -225
Japanese yen: +30,230
Swiss franc: +27,640
Canadian dollar: +56,991
Australian dollar: +47,951
New Zealand dollar: -2,809
Mexican peso: +121,575
Further COT Resources from around the web:
