Non-Farm Payrolls Report to Drive Today’s FX Trading

By Russell Glaser

All eyes will be fixed on the US jobs report due out today.

Yesterday the US dollar gained ground versus the majors with the lone exception being the euro as the ECB all but assured markets of an interest rate hike next month. The general positive tone for the dollar could carry over into today’s trading should the jobs data come in better than expected.

Today’s data releases:

GBP – Halifax HPI m/m – 08:00 GMT
Expectations: -0.6%. Previous: 0.8%.
The GBP was down yesterday following a weaker than expected services PMI. Disappointing housing data may also weigh on the pound. GBP/USD support is located at Friday’s low at 1.6030 with resistance found at Wednesday’s high of 1.6340. A move higher would target the November 2009 high at1.6880.

USD – Non-Farm Employment Change – 13:30 GMT
Expectations: 180K. Previous: 36K.
The weekly unemployment claims report was strong, as was the ADP jobs report. However, there is typically little correlation between these jobs data and today’s report. Expectations are high and may disappoint the market. Traders should look to continue bidding the euro higher against the dollar. The 1.4080 level could come into play today.

CAD – Ivey PMI – 15:00 GMT
Expectations: 50.6. Previous: 36K.
The CAD has been a strong performer versus the dollar; much of which can be attributed to higher crude oil prices as well as general dollar weakness. Following a breach of the 0.9800 level, the USD/CAD should continue to move lower with only the 0.9700 support that stands in the way of the November 2007 low at 0.9050.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

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