Month: February 2011

By CountingPips.com

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that futures speculators added to their short positions of the US dollar against the other major currencies to the highest short position in four months. Non-commercial futures positions, those taken by hedge funds and large speculators, were overall net short the US dollar by $26.3 billion against other major currencies as of February 8th. This is a rise from the total short position of $24.9 billion on February 1st, according to the CFTC data and calculations by Reuters which calculates the dollar positions against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc. Short dollar positions are now at their highest level since October 5, 2010 when shorts totaled $30.5 billion.

EuroFx: Currency speculators trimmed their net long positions in the euro against the U.S. dollar after three weeks of gains. Futures positions in the euro fell to a total of 34,734 long positions as of February 8th following a total of 39,934 long positions on February 1st. The graph below overlays the EUR/USD spot closing price of the Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported.

The COT report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity. Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, where as a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar. The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair .

GBP: Speculators increased their net long British pound sterling positions for a fifth straight week as of February 8th to their highest position since November 16th. Pound sterling contracts rose to a total of 24,475 long positions after totaling 22,659 long positions as of February 1st.

JPY: The Japanese yen net long contracts increased higher as of February 8th to a total of 36,731 long contracts. Yen positions had totaled 31,481 net long contracts reported on February 1st.

CHF: Swiss franc long positions declined to a total of 8,181 long contracts as of February 8th. Franc contracts totaled a net of 10,441 long contracts on February 1st.

CAD: The Canadian dollar positions advanced higher for second straight week to a total of 39,790 net long contracts. CAD long positions had registered 33,814 net longs on February 1st.

AUD: The Australian dollar long positions rose to their highest level since April with AUD contracts totaling a net amount of 71,979 long contracts as of February 8th. AUD positions had totaled 60,077 net long contracts on February 1st.

NZD: New Zealand dollar futures positions rose for a second straight week to a total of 10,857 long positions as of February 8th. NZD large speculator long positions had increased the previous week to a total of 10,270 long contracts on February 1st.

MXN: Mexican peso long contracts edged higher for a fifth consecutive week as of February 8th to 103,812 net long positions after totaling 103,117 longs the week prior on February 1st.

COT Data Summary as of February 8, 2011
Large Speculators Net Positions vs. the US Dollar

Euro: +34,734
British pound sterling: +24,475
Japanese yen: +36,731
Swiss franc: +8,181
Canadian dollar: +39,790
Australian dollar: +71,979
New Zealand dollar: +10,857
Mexican peso: +103,812

Go to the Commitment of Traders CME raw futures data

Further COT Resources from around the web:

• Forecast The FX Market With The COT Report

• The Only Indicator You Will Ever Need

By Chris Vermeulen, thegoldandoilguy.com

By CountingPips.com

Sunday February 13th

• New Zealand retail sales

• Japan gross domestic product

Monday February 14th

• Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes

• Australia NAB business confidence

• Chinese consumer price index

• Chinese producer price index

Tuesday February 15th

• Japan interest rate decision

• United Kingdom consumer price index

• United Kingdom retail price index

• Eurozone gross domestic product

• Eurozone trade balance

• United States Empire Manufacturing

• United States advanced retail sales

• United States net TIC flows

• United States ABC consumer confidence

• Japan Tertiary Industry index

Wednesday February 16th

• United Kingdom jobless claims

• Bank of England inflation report

• United States housing starts/building permits

• United States producer price index

• Canada leading indicators

• New Zealand producer prices

Thursday February 17th

• Eurozone current-account

• United States consumer price index

• United States weekly jobless claims

• United States leading indicators

• United States Philadelphia Fed survey

Friday February 18th

• United Kingdom retail sales

• Canada consumer price index

See full economic calendar.

By James Woolley

You will often hear about lots of people investing their own money nowadays. However the trouble is that very few investors are able to consistently make money. A major reason why that is the case is because they are unable to deal with changing market conditions.

The honest truth is that any idiot can make money in a bull market. If you stick to the mid and large-cap stocks, you will generally find that nearly all of them will rise in line with the overall market. So you don’t need to be an expert stock-picker to make money.

However the major problems arise when you have markets that trade in a sideways trading range for months on end, or worse still, when markets start heading downwards across the board. You would be amazed how many people think they are the world’s greatest investor when markets are rising, but who suddenly become totally clueless when they start falling.

You really do need to think about how you are going to make money from the stock market in all market conditions. This involves adopting sound money management principles and maybe looking at other ways you can take advantage of these challenging conditions. For example you could learn about spread betting or options trading so you can potentially make money when the markets are falling sharply.

You can also learn about how you can effectively manage an investment portfolio when the markets are flat or falling in value. If you study some of the top performing fund managers, you will often see that they don’t desperately cling on to shares when the wider stock market keeps going down and down. Instead they start investing their clients’ money into other instruments such as bonds, for example, in order to generate a more secure income while they are waiting for the markets to recover.

Making money from shares alone will always be very difficult because there will always be bad years when stocks are in a strong downward trend. This is why you need to keep an eye on the wider economic picture because most of the time the big falls are pretty well telegraphed in advance.

The point is that you need to constantly evolve as an investor. It is no good having one simple breakout strategy, for example, because what will you do in a bear market when hardly any stocks are making new highs? You need to have systems in place to deal with all market conditions, otherwise I’m afraid the losses that occur during the bear markets will really decimate your profits gained during the good years if you’re not careful.

About the Author

Click here to read a review of Zecco Trading, the online stock broker that offers free trades, and to read a full TradeKing broker review.

By James McKee

US car manufacturer Ford Motor Company has found itself in a great position financially after being bailed out by the government a couple years ago. The company has come back with a sense of rigor and dedication rarely seen in the car industry or any industry for that matter. This boost in sales has resulted in the desire of Ford to add jobs to some of its factories in the United States. In short the United States is building again and the manufacturing sector is sure to see some serious growth in the near future. A decrease in the US unemployment rate will increase risk appetite in the stock markets and boost the value of the USD in the long run.

The US job market is in a state of disrepair that has not been witnessed since the Great Depression and if the United States is to bounce back than it will do so through manufacturing. The US must get away from its voracious consumer appetite and move back to a place where it can export more than it imports. There was a time in the world when America lead in industry and consumer product manufacturing on a variety of different goods. America certainly has the potential to return to that status, the question is: Will the country choose to do so?

Americans are going to have to accept lower wages and begin the long road back to prosperity by rejecting credit and beginning to buy things that they can afford and not buy things they cannot. Those on the forex currency exchange should take note of manufacturers such as Ford expanding their factories, the United States economy may finally be waking up. Despite not being able to offer goods as cheaply as countries such as China or Japan the US still enjoys the chance to make a comeback.

About the Author

Author is a Forex trader and financial analyst residing in Denver, Colorado. To stay up to date on all the latest developments in the financial world and beyond be sure to check out the forex exchange rates regularly.

By Cedric Welsch

There are several reasons why people should hire a forex broker for their trading transactions. Of course, the biggest reason of all is that a trader wants to make a handsome profit out of his or her investment in the forex market. However, deciding whether to work or not with a forex broker is not really a big issue to worry about. The much bigger concern is finding a truly trusted and reputable broker to work with.

Although there are indeed brokers who are true and honest with their profession, there are also brokers who tend to be untrue based on the kind of transactions they are performing in behalf of the client. Once in a while, there are brokers to be found that do cause the jeopardy of trade investments instead of really garnering profits. One sign that a broker may not be honest at what he does is when he tries to rush things out instead of patiently waiting for the right timing. Such brokers tend to sell currencies based on their impulse and not really based on careful study.

It is utterly crucial to be able to determine if the forex broker you are eyeing to hire does posses such mentioned trait. If you find even the slightest indication that a broker may indeed have the tendency for such behavior, stay away from that broker and move on to your next prospect. With the right amount of research coupled with patience, you surely will be able to find a truly honest forex broker to work with.

If you are still considered a newbie in the industry of forex trading, then it is a good option to conduct a bit of survey with your fellow traders. Ask them their opinions or maybe seek their assistance. If you don’t yet know personally a lot of people in the forex trading industry, then you can easily join some community of traders online, join their discussions and mingle along with them. Once they get to know you, then you may establish a good networking relationship with these people to when you can eventually extract some valuable knowledge and feedback from them regarding your quest for finding a reputable broker.

You may not get direct answers from online forums and communities as to who exactly can be considered as the true and honest brokers and which ones are those that needed to be kept away from. But if you follow certain discussion threads that are talking about specific complaints and actual experiences from traders toward particular brokers, then that will surely give you a good hint and warning.

The more in-depth knowledge you acquire towards a particular broker before you make your decision of hiring, the better chances for you on landing with the right professional you should really be working with.

About the Author

It’s ok to feed yourself with currency trading news constantly. After all, it’s a food for the mind of trader while forex reviews are the warning sings.

By James McKee

While the US employment numbers came up slightly in January overall they are still down for the year. However things might be looking up for the USD in February since there have been massive efforts geared towards re-establishing the manufacturing sector in the United States. If the US can begin to balance its imports with its exports the country may find itself on the fast track to recovery. If the United States continues its rampant importation of foreign goods with extremely low exports the USD will continue to suffer. Luckily the outcry in the United States for more jobs has been heard and some companies are heeding the call.

The re-introduction of manufacturing labor will have a large impact on the US economy if the concept continues to grow. Many in the United States would rather not do the type of work that manufacturing entails, yet, as the economy continues to wither it will be all that is available. The recent gains of the Yuan prove that an appreciated currency is inevitable where an exporting country is concerned. However at the same time the USD’s value may be purposefully devalued by the US in order to make their exports more appealing if the economy goes in that direction.

The push and pull of the USD could become severe if the United States feels a strong desire to make its exports as appealing as possible. This initial drive towards manufacturing could in fact herald an initial rise in the value of the USD if the idea catches on. Those on the forex currency exchange should keep an eye on the US manufacturing sector. Only time will tell whether or not the USD’s value will rise to coincide with the amount of manufacturing occurring in the United States. Due to the unemployment rate staying stagnant there will be a call for any type of job that pays, and the manufacturing market will answer that call.

About the Author

Author is a Forex trader and financial analyst residing in Denver, Colorado. To stay up to date on all the latest developments in the financial world and beyond be sure to check out the forex exchange rates regularly.

By Chris M Lee

One of the aspects of a Forex demo that you need to know about is that it must be designed in such a way to actually and factually emulate the ins and outs of the market. I mean, that is the whole point of the Forex demo account in the first place, to give you first hand view of the market and how it can be as virtually as possible. The best Forex demo accounts out there are those that are able to as accurately as possible make the demo as real as possible.

One other thing that you need to do is to also look at how the demo is designed and this is what you have to do on your own. Research on how the demo account and the programme that you are going to be assigned is constructed and from there you can make your decision. There is a lot of maths and engineering to do when one is making a good demo account. So, you need to research as much as you can and look into it as well to make sure that you get a good account.

One thing also, is that the company that is giving this demo programme to you is also transparent. Most companies who are denoted as scammers are those who do not share with you what the demo account and programme is all about, how it is designed and what it can do for you. If you spot a company that doesn’t share with you these details, then, more often than not, you are running into a scam artist that is trying to steal some money from you and give you a dud that will not help you with your trading at all. This is something that you should seriously look into.

The next thing you need to know about this is there should be a part of the demo programme that allows you to have real time access to your broker or financial contact in the financial company. You should be able to contact and have someone to actually guide you throughout the process. I mean, the whole point of this for you is to actually learn something and you need some sort of human element there for you to learn as best as you can. This way, you will be able to get the most of the account that you are given.

The last thing that you need to look out for of course is the technical support that you should be getting. Technical support is really one of the most important things in the whole demo account. A Forex demo that does not work nor has conflicts on your computer is useless, so you need to be able to actually get some sort of support when this happens. So these, are some of the things that you need to know when you are trading with a demo account, and how to get your hands on the best ones on the online trading market.

About the Author

Click Here to claim your Free Forex “Basic Momentum Analysis” report today! Christopher Lee helps thousands of traders learn the proper way to trade currency. He is an authority on Forex candlestick trading at http://www.Forex-Trading-Training.org.

By James McKee

The JPY and the Japanese stock market have seen substantial gains as the United States reports job growth in some sectors. Japan and many other Asian countries depend on the purchasing power of US citizens when it comes to their exports. What is good for the United States is good for Japan, and the JPY, well…sort of. The Japanese Yen has experienced inflation on a grand scale for over a decade now and despite numerous attempts to slow down or reverse the trend efforts have been un-successful. As a result Japan has seen massive unemployment and other issues as it lost market share to China and other countries.

As of late the Japanese stock market and JPY have seen gains due to improving US employment data. There has been some job growth in the United States as of late and with the recent movement towards manufacturing sector growth this trend should continue. The only possible downside of US manufacturing sector growth is possible competition for its products. For a long time now Japan has enjoyed a measure of dominance over US markets when it comes to automobiles and electronics, a changing market could signal an end of such dominance.

Japanese products have gone from a rocky start to a place in American culture that is trusted and aligned with quality. If US manufacturers do enter these markets and begin making products for domestic consumption Japanese manufacturers will have some competition and have to produce better products. In the end the consumer wins but the end result for the respective economies of both these nations could be undesirable. The JPY gathering much more value would dilute the country’s appeal as an exporter because its goods would become much more expensive. Although if Japan’s exports become un-marketable than the JPY could see a serious drop in value over time anyway, those on the forex currency exchange should keep an eye on Japan’s export relationship with the US.

About the Author

Author is a Forex trader and financial analyst residing in Denver, Colorado. To stay up to date on all the latest developments in the financial world and beyond be sure to check out the forex exchange rates regularly.

By Jeffrey Johnson

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If you want to do well within the forex market and hope to make a handsome revenue then it’s a should to get into the behavior of going by forex reviews. This can make certain you don’t fall into the class of those that enter this market, incur heavy losses and make their exit as fast as they made their entry.

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About the Author

If you need to read extra concerning the totally different foreign exchange services and products as well as buying and selling suggestions please go to: Forex Reviews