AUDUSD may be forming a cycle bottom at 0.9537 level on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 0.9537 and 0.9700 would likely be seen in a couple of days. Support is at 0.9537, a breakdown below this level will indicate that the downtrend from 0.9953 has resumed, then another fall to 0.9450 could be seen. Resistance is at 0.9700, only break above this level could suggest that lengthier consolidation of downtrend is underway, then further rally to 0.9750-0.9800 area is expected.
The European common currency today has rebounded after a sharp decline to begin the week in the forex markets. The euro decreased to start the week despite the European commission’s announcement of a rescue package for Ireland as investors are unconvinced that the Eurozone’s debt problems are sufficiently contained.
The EUR/USD pair fell more than 200 pips on Monday and Tuesday and touched its lowest exchange rate since the middle of September below 1.3000. The decline also brought a pair below the 200-day moving average for the first time since September and into oversold territory on the relative strength index indicator (RSI).
Today, the euro has advanced by over 100 pips against the US dollar and has shot back up over the 1.3100 exchange rate. The pair trades a hair over the 200-day moving average (red line) and it will be notable to see whether the pair can stay over this significant technical hurdle.
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FxNewsEurope.com – Euro Forex News
David Banister- www.MarketTrendForecast.com
Excerpted from TMTF November 28th:
Gold has been consolidating other than a spike to an intermediate wave 3 top of $1424, for about 7 weeks or so now. It’s typical to see Fibonacci periods of time as part of consolidations whether it be an individual stock or a precious metal in this case. Gold was overbought at the $1425 pivot highs a few weeks ago, and that terminated what I label a “wave 3″ pattern. This led us into a 4th wave corrective pattern which we remain in now. My worst case pivot low is expected at $1,321 and so far we have seen $1,331 an ounce and then an ensuing bounce to $1370 ranges.
In the intermediate term then, I’m looking for further consolidation likely for another week or so followed by a breakout over $1425 leading to my objectives of $1480-$1525 to complete the entire rally from the $1040 lows in February of this year. Many are starting to get bearish on Gold and Silver up here, and to me that is bullish and indicative of “4th wave mentality”. In a 4th wave, there is growing bearish sentiment, but not so much as to topple the bull structure.
To wit, last week in my ATP service I recommended a brand new Core Position in a Gold,Silver stock and it rallied as much as 40% intra-week at it’s highs. We are in a super bull market for Gold stocks as I outlined in August of 2009, and we have another four years left to go. I’m seeing alot of amazing chart patterns in the Junior space that are in relentless climbs. Owning the the explorers that are finding the Gold is how best to take advantage of the remaining four years. At ATP, we are exposed to Rare Earths, Silver, Gold, and Oil and Gas related plays in our Core Positions. Make sure you own hard assets and precious metals resources one way or another. My silver forecast in late August was basically predicated on the small investor swarming into the Silver market to buy up coins, look for that to continue and Silver to be over $30 in the not too distant future.
Below is my updated Gold forecast using a weekly chart, remember to Keep it Simple!
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Classic economics says that the key to economic growth is capital accumulation and production. A fact that holds true for both national economies and private companies.
But with both production and capital increasingly moving away from the world’s developed economies, politicians, companies and investors alike are looking for new signs of how to spot and spur economic growth. And one of the answers they most often fall upon is “Innovation”.
In fact, in a 2010 survey by BusinessWeek and the Boston Consulting Group, 72 percent of senior executives said innovation was a top three priority for their company. The same survey showed that the most innovative companies outperform their peers by 12.4 percent over a three-year period.
But what is innovation? Is it anything more than a business buzzword? What makes an organization innovative? And how can one spot an innovative organization?
Our guests all have their own perspectives. Among others,we spoke with:
By CountingPips.com
U.S. employment data released today in the form of the ADP National Employment Report showed that U.S. private employment increased by more than expected in the month of November. The nonfarm private employment rose by 93,000 workers in November following the revised increase of 82,000 jobs in October. The October jobs data was 
revised higher by almost double the original release of 42,000 jobs gained.
November’s increase surpassed the market forecasts which were expecting an approximate gain of 70,000 jobs and the data marked the largest increase in three years. ADP employment has now shown positive levels for 10 straight months with the average gain being 47,000 workers per month.
The service-providing sector showed an increase of 79,000 jobs in November while the goods-producing sector rose by 14,000 jobs. Manufacturing had a gain of 16,000 jobs while construction jobs fell by just 3,000 workers. All size of businesses added jobs in November as large businesses increased by 2,000 jobs, medium sized businesses added 37,000 jobs and employment by small businesses rose by 54,000 jobs.
The market-moving US Nonfarm Payrolls report for November is to be released Friday at 13:30 pm GMT with market forecasts predicting a potential gain of 145,000 jobs and with the unemployment rate holding steady at 9.6 percent.
By Natalie R. – Following a strong bearish streak versus the USD over the past week, the DKK has begun a modest correction versus the greenback and it looks like the trend is likely to continue further.
Below is the daily chart of USD/DKK. The technical indicators are the RSI, Slow Stochastic and Williams Percent Range.
– A breach of the upper Bollinger Band is evident on the chart (1), indicating the downward correction is expected to continue further.
– A bearish cross is evident on the Slow Stochastic (2), signaling the next move may be a downward correction.
– The RSI (3) signals that the price of this pair is floating in the overbought territory, suggesting downward pressure.
– Williams Percent Range (4) further supports the downward direction as it is still near the upper limit.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
By GCI Forex Research
Fundamental Outlook at 0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)
USD
Safe-haven currencies remained supported in Asia Wednesday on escalating concerns over Eurozone sovereign risk, but the dollar failed to make any lasting gains. EURUSD traded 1.2971-1.3039, USDJPY 83.38-83.72.
US data was generally positive. The Conference Board consumer confidence index and the Chicago PMI beat expectations. Weekly store sales showed solid gains, though the S&P/Case Shiller home price index was below consensus. ISM Manufacturing and the Fed’s Beige Book are due and releases should again play a secondary role to broader Eurozone concerns. We remain constructive on the dollar in the current environment.
EUR
The euro remains under pressure as contagion fears persist. ECB President Trichet said “observers are tending to underestimate the determination of governments” and he doesn’t believe Eurozone financial stability could be called into question. Trichet said ECB bond purchases are ongoing and “we will see what we decide” on the program in the future.
S&P placed Portugal on watch negative, with a Reuters headline suggesting that this was to reflect “risks from possible recourse to official funding by [the] government”. Comments from the Portuguese Prime Minister hit the wires immediately after the S&P negative credit watch headlines, and quoted him as saying that reports of pressure on Portugal to ask for a bailout are not true and he remains convinced that decisions by Brussels will make yields retreat.
IMF First Deputy Managing Director Lipsky said that “the notion that the euro is under threat is wildly exaggerated given what’s happening in markets.” But Bofinger, an economic adviser to the German government, said the risks to the euro are enormous and Germany has to decide if it is worth keeping.
Eurozone unemployment was unchanged at 10.1% on an aggregate basis, although the different figures released across Germany, France and the peripherals highlight the diverging paths of the member states. The Eurozone CPI estimate was unchanged as expected at 1.9% y/y.
JPY
BoJ policy board member Suda said there is a strong chance Japan’s economy could contract in Q4, and that the risk of a prolonged period of economic weakness is high. On the policy front, she dismissed the idea of cutting the interest rate the Bank currently pays on reserves, but said the BoJ has the option of boosting the size of its asset purchase fund. Intriguingly, she said the chances of the BoJ buying foreign bonds in future is very low, but not zero. Suda said that, for now at least, the costs of any such approach would outweigh the benefits.
CAD
Q3 GDP in Canada was lower than expected at 1.0% although Q2 was revised slightly higher. The monthly GDP reading for September showed a contraction, the first since August 2009. The Canadian dollar weakened on the release but held in relatively well given the reduced risk-seeking across the board.
AUD
The AUD weakened after Q3 GDP growth missed expectations, only managing to rise +0.2% q/q (cons. 0.4%, prev. 1.1%). Our Australian economics team note that the weaker print raises the risk that the RBA stays on hold for longer. They now acknowledge the risk that rate hikes currently forecast for H1 2011 may not materialise until H2 2011, which would allow the economy more time to strengthen.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
AUDUSD clears 0.9542.
EURUSD BEARISH Clearance of 1.2988 exposes 1.2796 ahead of 1.2588. Resistance at 1.3150.
USDJPY BULLISH Recovery held at 84.41; breach of the level would expose 85.40 reaction high. Initial support at 82.79.
GBPUSD BEARISH Violation of 1.5509 exposes 1.5297. Near-term resistance at 1.5773.
USDCHF BULLISH Upside potential held at 1.0054 ahead of 1.0183. Near-term support at 0.9849.
AUDUSD BEARISH Push below 0.9542 opens up the way towards 0.9477 Fibonacci support. Resistance at 0.9712.
USDCAD BULLISH Clears 1.0264, room for 1.0374 next resistance. Near-term support at 1.0171.
EURCHF BEARISH Move below 1.3072 leaves little support till 1.2766 key low. Near-term resistance at 1.3132.
EURGBP BEARISH Break of 0.8402 opens up the way towards 0.8329 and 0.8202 next. Resistance at 0.8449.
EURJPY BEARISH Decline through 109.35 exposes 107.73 and 105.44 key low. Near-term resistance at 110.69 intraday high.
Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.
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DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.
Possible Turn Back for the USDJPY
After brewing into the bearish trend channel for the past few days, the USDJPY pair is now anticipated to consolidate between the resistance level at 83.82 and support level at 83.39. The simple MA (14) at H1 time frame, along with the price, is now heading towards the uptrend channel while the MACD (12, 26, 9) of the 4-hour chart is still showing signs of consolidation at the moment, as the signal line closes its gap with the MACD line. On the other hand, despite having visible signs of bullish proposal, noticeable motion of the RSI (14) is still seen to be on a neutral level at the M30 price chart. Currently, traders in a buying bias could assume a potential gain in the successive events, with these indications of bullishness in the market.
American Session Outlook
The US Dollar showed relative strength against its major counterparts during yesterday’s trading. Noteworthy of it was the two-month high against Euro, as risk averse in the Euro Zone continues. Also, Canadian Dollar showed relative strength against GBP, AUD and EUR.
For today’s American session, the Loonie is expected to consolidate its gain against the Fiber, Sterling and Aussie. With no major economic indicator from Canada and no signs yet of much confidence in UK and Euro region, the Loonie is expected to hold its strength. On the other hand, the Loonie might relatively weaken due to a negative correlation with the black crack’s price, expected to continuously drop this holiday season. But any intervention from Bank of Canada through open market operations and bank rate adjustment may cause strong impact and unexpected reversal.
As for the Greenback, holiday season continues to nurture its relative strength against the Fiber, Sterling and Yen. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is expected to be released later, may increase by 27K signifying a boost in consumer spending that generally accounts for the overall economic activity.
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In the last 24 hours there has been a perceptible shift in what the markets expect from EU officials.
Last week investors were on tenterhooks about whether the Irish government could settle a bailout package with the EU-IMF. The question then was whether that would assure investors that the bond crisis in Europe could be contained.
Since then though the markets have realised that bailing out one periphery member does not halt the escalating crises in other member states. Reports today indicate that bailouts for Portugal and Spain are all but inevitable.
Because of this attention has shifted from the consequences for the euro of individual bailouts. Instead attention has turned to the systemic consequences for the EU of bailing out the periphery members.
The European Central Bank for instance has the potential to become a European equivalent to the Fed. It has unlimited liquidity and could theoretically take on the debt of every EU member.
The trouble though is that the ECB was never intended to fulfil this function. Turning the bank into a European Fed would effectively centralise economic power in the euro zone giving it complete control over economic policy in indebted periphery nations.
The EU periphery nations don’t really have a choice about whether they want this. Spain and Portugal need rescuing: if economic circumstances demand and the markets stop investing in their government bonds then the ECB is the only lending source available.
Instead the question is whether the EU core states want this responsibility. Do relatively solvent nations such as Germany and France want the obligation of shouldering the debt of perhaps six insolvent nations? Do they want to transform the function of the ECB and effectively begin the process of euro zone political union?
Right now the markets don’t know. But until they do and a long term solution to the debt crisis is unveiled it looks as though confidence in the euro will remain low.
Elsewhere on the markets the situation is being determined more by short term economic data releases. Today’s release of the UK Purchasing Manager’s Index indicates that conditions for businesses have become more favourable this month in Britain, and this might bolster sterling.
In addition George Osborne’s newly created institution The Office for Budget Responsibility has predicted that his budget plans are likely to reduce UK debt against GDP by his target date of 2016. This isn’t an economic release per se but it indicates that Osborne’s plans are fiscally sound and could also bolster sterling.
Finally in the US this afternoon the November figures by the Institute of Supply Management are released. These account for business conditions in the US manufacturing sector and, though they are expected to indicate conditions are improving, they could be below market hopes.
However given the continuing uncertainty in the EU and the dollar’s status as a safe haven currency it is unlikely confidence in the US will be seriously dented.
By Peter Lavelle with currency exchange specialists Pure FX.
The euro rallied today versus the dollar and yen as selling pressure on the common currency eased as speculation rose that ECB policy makers will act to prevent the spread of the region’s debt crisis during their meeting tomorrow.
The euro jumped to1.3107, up over 1% from its lowest point of the day, but still marking a decline of around 2% from its highest point of the week. Against the yen the common currency rose to 109.80 yen. The dollar traded recently at 83.80 yen, little changed from 83.70 late Tuesday in New York, while the pound rose to $1.5625 from $1.5556 after the release of better than expected retail sales data.
Later today the release of the ADP Non-Farm Payroll data and ISM Manufacturing PMI at 13:15 and 15:00 GMT respectively is expected to shed further light on market conditions and direction heading to Friday’s release of the U.S Non-farm Payroll data.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
