Crude oil has risen consistently since December 15, reaching as high as $90.70 a barrel today. Crude has gone up almost 400 pips in the last week alone.
Crude oil prices are rising as demand for gasoline in the U.S. increased by 1.8% over the past 4 weeks compared to a year earlier, averaging 9.2 million barrels a day. In addition, crude prices are rising on speculation that the U.S. economy is strengthening. The rising Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is trading in levels not seen since 2008, also boosting crude prices up. The current sentiment in the market is that the U.S. economy, unlike the European economies, has seen the worst of the economic crisis, and that a quick recovery is taking place. This is supporting the data the demand for gasoline in the U.S., the world’s largest energy consumer, will increase further in 2011.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
The weekly inventory report showed a higher-than-expected drop in crude oil stockpiles, said the Energy Information Administration. The number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week fell by 5.3M barrels as opposed to the previous week, failing to reach expectations for a 1.1M decline.
To sum up, the impact of rising demand on the one hand, and dropping supplies on the other, will likely boost crude oil prices further in the next week. I won’t be surprised if crude oil will test $100 a barrel before the end of 2010.