Month: November 2010

By Anton Eljwizat – Crude Oil reached a 25-month high for a fifth consecutive session on Thursday as strong industrial output sent demand in China to a record and a surplus subsided in top consumer the United States. However, the daily chart is suggesting that a recent upwards trend is loosing steam and a bearish correction is impending. Forex traders can take advantage of this impending movement by having their Entry Orders in place to capture this reversal.

• Below is the daily chart for Crude oil by ForexYard.

• The technical indicators used are the Slow Stochastic, Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD.

• Point 1: The RSI signals that the price of this pair currently floats in the over-bought territory, indicating downward pressure.

• Point 2: The Slow Stochastic indicates a bearish cross, signaling that the next move may be in a downward direction.

• Point 3: The MACD indicates an impending bearish cross, signaling that the next move may be in a downward direction.

Crude Oil Daily Chart

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By GCI Forex Research

Fundamental Outlook at 0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)

USD

The dollar stabilized during the Asia session given the relative absence of news and economic dataflow. Although the G20 Summit is currently underway, delegates refrained from expressing any surprising or controversial opinions in public, and this contributed to the general lack of price direction. EURUSD traded 1.3716-1.3821, USDJPY 82.04-82.80. The Nikkei-225 is up +0.3% at the time of writing while the S&P500 finished +0.44% ahead. Initial jobless claims dropped to 435k (cons. 450k) in the week of Nov 6 from a revised estimate of 459k for the week before. In addition, the US trade balance narrowed $2.5B to -$44.0B in September (cons. -$45.0B). US Treasury Secretary Geithner said that the US “will never” seek to weaken the dollar as a tool to grow the economy, and said that the dollar’s recent fall is in part due to reversal of earlier safe haven flows. The New York Fed published a tentative schedule for Treasury purchases as part of the Fed’s latest round of quantitative easing. The purchases are due to begin on Friday.
EUR

Irish Central Bank Governor Honohan said that it will not be necessary for Ireland to tap the EU rescue fund and that budget measures should boost confidence, adding that there was no reason why Ireland can’t return to the bond market in 2011. However he observed that Irish banks saw net outflows in September.
Although a Portuguese auction passed without incident, yields continued to rise for sovereign issuers on the Eurozone’s periphery. News that a major London-based clearing house increased the margin they require for holding Irish government bonds likely contributed to the bearish tone.
A Greek newspaper claimed that Greece would upwardly revise its 2010 budget deficit to 9.5% of GDP from the originally projected 8.1% of GDP. There were mixed industrial reduction results across France and Italy, illustrating their diverging prospects for Q3 GDP. Year-on-year readings were +5.1% vs. consensus of +4.7% for France, while Italian industrial production greatly missed estimates, falling -2.1% m/m vs. consensus of -0.3%.
GBP

Sterling received a temporary boost when the BoE’s quarterly inflation report showed an upward revision to the near-term inflation forecast. For the short term, the likelihood of further QE remains slim due to better-than-expected fundamentals, but price risks on both sides suggest that is still a distinct possibility heading into the new year.
AUD

October’s employment report was mixed. Although +29.7k new jobs were created (cons. +20k), only part-time jobs increased. The unemployment rate was much higher than expected at 5.4% (cons. 5.0%, prev. 5.1%), although this was due to a large increase in the work force. Our Australian economists believe the new data shows an economy running at, rather than above, trend. This further supports their view that the RBA is likely ‘on hold’ until March.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
EURJPY constructive above 111.53.
EURUSD NEUTRAL While resistance at 1.4282 holds, break of 1.3635 would trigger negative tone.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Recovery through 81.99 exposes 83.99. Initial support defined at 81.55 ahead of 79.75 key support.
GBPUSD BULLISH As long as support at 1.5651 holds, focus on 1.6379.
USDCHF BEARISH Focus is on 0.9463; a break here would trigger another bearish run towards 0.9225. Upside capped at 0.9972.
AUDUSD BULLISH Upside pressure found resistance at 1.0183 ahead of 1.0222. Little resistance beyond that till 1.1084. Support at 0.9891 ahead of 0.9542 reaction low.
USDCAD BEARISH Sustained break of 0.9981 would expose 0.9820 next. Resistance at 1.0156.
EURCHF BEARISH Pullback from 1.3834 eyes 1.3265; next support below that lies at 1.3072. Initial resistance at 1.3452.
EURGBP BEARISH Break of 0.8542 has opened up the way towards 0.8463 next. Resistance at 0.8692 ahead of 0.8818.
EURJPY BULLISH Remains constructive above 111.53; expect gains to target 115.68.

Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

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DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Source: ForexYard

The dollar declined versus riskier counterparts in early trading today, on speculations that emerging economies will let their currencies float freely and appreciate versus the USD. The rise of the Chinese yuan to the strongest level since 1993 boosted these speculations. Meanwhile, crude prices rallied to a two year high on a drop in inventories and improved economic outlook.

Economic News

USD – USD Rallies versus the Yen on Positive Economic Data

The USD rallied Wednesday, advancing strongly against the yen and euro, as the release of several economic indicators showed encouraging signs for the U.S. economy. After the data, the dollar hit an intraday high against the yen, reaching 82.67, the strongest since Oct. 7.

The greenback gained as weekly unemployment claims report showed a higher than expected decline in weekly jobless claims as well as a narrowing of the trade deficit. An unsuccessful 30 year Treasuries auction later in the day as well as the release of further details concerning the Fed’s Bond buying program weighed on the greenback causing it to lose some of its gains against the yen. The EUR/USD pair closed the day virtually unchanged from the morning session.

With a bank holiday in the US today no news is expected from the region. Traders should, however, follow any news that might come from the G20 meeting throughout the day. The low liquidity combined with possible news regarding future monetary moves is likely to provide a rather volatile trading day.

EUR – Sovereign Debt Concerns Continue to Weigh on the Common Currency

The EUR/USD pair heavy price swings continued Wednesday, as sovereign debt concerns continue to plague the euro with the common currency falling to $1.3671 as an unsuccessful Irish debt auction highlighted the high cost of insuring weak members of the euro-zone against debt default. The euro has since recovered however, gaining back to above $1.38 in today’s early Asian trading.

It seems that the markets are torn between quantitative easing measures by the Federal Reserve on the one hand and euro zone’s sovereign-debt crisis on the other, signaling that the massive swings in the pair’s prices will likely continue in the short term.

The pound remained strong versus the USD and the euro as the BOE, in its latest quarterly inflation report, indicated inflation will likely remain above 2% for the time being, indicating the Bank of England is not likely to follow the Federal Reserve by expanding monetary easing policies.

JPY – JPY Down as Global Economic Prospects Improve

Japan’s currency fell to its weakest level in more than a month against the greenback yesterday as positive economic data reduced the appeal of the safe haven currency. The dollar hit an intraday high against the yen, reaching 82.67, the strongest since Oct. 7. The yen has since gained some strength, trading around the 82.15 level during today’s Asian trading. The yen also remained mainly unchanged against the euro, currently trading at 113.40 per euro from 113.41 in New York yesterday.

No major news are expected today from the region as well as most other major markets; however, traders should follow the G20 meeting taking place today and tomorrow for clues about the future of currency relations.

Crude Oil – Crude Rallies on a Drop in Inventories

The price of light, sweet crude oil futures contract for December delivery rose $1.09, or 1.3%, to $87.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract hit an intraday high of $88.10 Wednesday, continuing its rise in today’s early Asian trading, and is currently trading around $88.30 a barrel.

Crude oil prices rallied to a two year high after a Department of Energy report showed a steeper than expected drop in fuel stockpiles, continuing a slide from 27-year highs. Oil inventories fell 3.4 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 5.

Technical News

EUR/USD

Following yesterday’s sharp drop, an upward correction may be in store for the pair today. The RSI for the pair is floating in the oversold territory on the 8 hour chart with a bullish cross evident on 8 hour and daily charts’ Slow Stochastic. Going long for the day is advised.

GBP/USD

A bearish cross is seen on the 2 hour and 4 hour charts’ Slow Stochastic with the RSI for the pair floating in the overbought territory on the 2 hour chart. Going short with tight stops may be the preferred strategy for the day.

USD/JPY

A breach of the upper Bollinger Band is evident on the 8 hour and daily charts with the RSI for the pair floating in the overbought territory on the 8 hour chart. A bearish cross is seen on the 2 hour MACD as well as the 8 hour chart’s Slow Stochastic. Going short for today may be a good option.

USD/CHF

A downward trend may be seen for the pair today as a bearish cross is seen on the 8 hour chart’s Slow Stochastic while the RSI for the pair is floating ion the overbought territory. Furthermore a doji candlestick can be seen on the daily chat, indicating a reversal in direction might take pace. Going short with tight stops is advised for today.

The Wild Card

EUR/CAD

The EUR may see a reversal today as the RSI for the pair is floating in the oversold territory on the daily, 8 and 4 hour charts while a bullish cross is seen on the 8 hour and daily charts’ Slow Stochastic. Furthermore, a breach of the lower Bollinger Band is evident on the daily chart, indicating and impending upward move. Forex traders may take this opportunity to go long for the day at a great entry price.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

USDCAD moves sideways in a range between 0.9979 and 1.0093. Now the price action in the trading range is more likely consolidation of downtrend from 1.0372. Another fall to test 0.9979 support is expected later today, a breakdown below this level could trigger another fall towards 0.9500 area. Resistance is at 1.0093, only break above this level would suggest that lengthier consolidation of downtrend is underway, then further rally could be seen to 1.0150 zone.

Daily Forex Signals

By FxNewsIndia – The US dollar has declined in the currency exchange markets today against the Indian rupee following three straight days of dollar strength. The USD/INR currency pair currently trades around the 44.57 exchange rate at the end of the US market session and is down from the day’s opening rate of approximately 44.73 rupees per dollar, according to currency data by Oanda.

The USD/INR managed to touch its highest level since November 1st earlier today at the 44.80 level before reversing and retreating lower. Last week, the dollar fell to its lowest exchange rate against the rupee since late 2008 after the US Federal Reserve’s announced a new quantitative easing program and the Reserve Bank of India’s raised interest rates.

The dollar had increased for three straight days before today’s turnaround.

USD/INR Daily Chart

About the Author

FxNewsIndia.com – India Forex News

By CountingPips.com

The U.S. dollar has been mixed in trading in the forex markets following today’s trade deficit and jobless claims numbers while the American stock markets are slightly lower. The dollar has gained ground versus the euro, Japanese yen, Swiss franc and the Australian dollar in today’s trading action while declining against the New Zealand dollar, British pound sterling and the Canadian dollar, according to currency data by Oanda just after noon in the US trading session.

The euro is going on its third straight day of declines against the American currency as the EUR/USD pair trades near the 1.3726 exchange rate after a 1.3769 open and down from the opening exchange rate of the week at 1.4031.

The dollar has surged higher against the Japanese yen for second consecutive day as the USD/JPY trades around the 82.55 exchange rate which is almost exactly 200 pips higher than Tuesday’s low point.

The U.S. stock markets, meanwhile, are slightly lower today with the Dow Jones falling by approximately 20 points, the Nasdaq up by approximately 2 points and the S&P 500 down by just around 2 points.

Oil has traded higher by $1.25 to $87.97 per barrel while gold has dropped sharply by $25.40 to the $1384.40 per ounce level.

US trade deficit edged lower in September

The United States trade deficit decreased by more than expected in September, according to a release by the Commerce Department today. The U.S. trade deficit declined by $2.5 billion as the deficit leveled at $44.0 billion in September following a revised deficit of $46.5 billion in August.

The data surpassed market forecasts that were expecting a deficit of approximately $45.0 billion for the month.

The U.S. had a total of $154.1 billion worth of exports in September which was an increase of $0.5 billion from August’s total. September saw a decrease in imports with a total of $198.1 billion worth of imports compared with $200.1 billion in August for a decline of $2.0 billion.

The politically sensitive U.S. trade deficit with China was almost unchanged in September with a $27.8 billion shortfall after a deficit of $28.0 billion in August. Other notable U.S. trade deficits were the deficits with the European Union at $6.1 billion, Mexico at $5.8 billion, Japan at $5.0 billion and OPEC at $8.9 billion.

The U.S. trade surpluses with other countries for September included Hong Kong at $2.3 billion, Singapore at $0.7 billion, Australia at $1.2 billion and Egypt at $0.6 billion.

Weekly Jobless Claims fall by 24,000.

A separate government release by the U.S. Labor Department showed that weekly U.S. jobless claims decreased in the week that ended on November 6th. New jobless claims decreased to a total of 435,000 unemployed workers, a decline over the prior week by 24,000 workers. This decline in jobless claims was more than expected as market forecasts predicted a fall to 450,000 jobless claims. The 4-week moving average of unemployed workers fell by 10,000 from the prior week to a total of 446,500.

Meanwhile, workers seeking continuing claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending October 30th also decreased for the week. Continuing claims declined by 86,000 workers to a total of 4,301,000 unemployed workers. The four week moving average of continuing claims fell by 35,750 to 4,388,250.

By FxNewsChina – China’s trade surplus with other countries jumped in October while imports and exports also advanced higher. The latest trade surplus numbers increased by over $10 billion in October from September with a surplus of US $27.1 billion following a trade surplus of $16.9 billion in September, according to the state run news agency Xinhua.

The trade balance surpassed economic forecasts that were expecting a surplus of approximately US$25 billion.

October marked the second highest surplus data this year following a surplus of $28.73 billion recorded in July and brought the total 2010 surplus to US $147.77 billion through the first 10 months of the year (-6.7% compared to last year).

Chinese exports rose on an annual basis by 22.9 percent in October from the October 2009 level to a total of US$135.98 billion.

Imports increased at an even faster pace in October with an annual rise by 25.3 percent to a total of US$108.83 billion.

About the Author

FxNewsChina.com – China Forex News

By Greg Holden – Gold prices have been on a rollercoaster ride these past few trading days. Following the announcement by the US Federal Reserve of a new round of quantitative easing, now known as QE2, the price of gold immediately climbed to a recent high of $1,424.10 an ounce. However, the subsequent profit-taking action across the market at the start of this week has driven the US dollar much higher while simultaneously pulling commodity prices downward.

These price swings in gold’s price have caused a stir among market participants, many of whom have profited greatly by capturing these movements with their new Gold Trading Accounts, now available at ForexYard.

As we can see in the chart below, there are two bullish trend lines interacting with one another, creating a distinct bullish channel. As the price climbed towards the upper border of this channel we have witnessed a strong technical reaction resulting in a massive sell-off.

Additionally, technical indicators on the RSI and Stochastic (slow) show a build-up of sell pressure on Gold. The first support level to be tested during this correction is near the $1,382 price mark, while the second, stronger support level rests near last week’s psychological barrier of $1,340 an ounce, with a potential pause occurring near $1,360.

Traders operating with our new Gold Trading Account may wish to take this opportunity to go short on Gold until it reaches a safe turning point, likely to occur somewhere between $1,360 and $1,340. Afterwards, this precious metal will likely continue its bullish streak.

Gold – Daily Chart

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.