By CountingPips.com
Today’s Important News Releases – Tuesday, November 16, 2010
USDCHF’s rise from 0.9548 extended further to 0.9870 level. Support is at 0.9795, as long as this level holds, upward move is expected to continue and next target would be at 0.9850-0.9900 area. However, a breakdown below 0.9795 will suggest that a cycle top is being formed on 4-hour chart, then pullback to 0.9650 area could be seen to follow.
Written by ForexCycle.com
An exciting market with enormous money making potential, Forex trading is extremely popular all over the globe. You can make money trading forex even if you do not have a Wall Street experience. You can access forex trading and make money via online brokers anywhere in the world as long as you have Internet connection. However, it is important to know what restrictions (if any) are placed on forex trading in your country. This article will explore forex regulations in Nigeria and provide a short guide to what Nigerians should consider when choosing a forex broker.
Unlike some other countries, forex industry in Nigeria is not over-regulated. It enjoys a truly free market economy environment. According to the Central Bank of Nigeria, everyone can participate in foreign exchange trading as long as the trading is conducted via a bank or a broker. There is no specific registration required for forex brokers who want to operate in Nigeria, therefore many well- known brokers accept Nigerian customers.
It is impossible to underestimate the importance of doing the due diligence when selecting a forex broker. One should look for reputable brokers with at least several years of market experience and check the conditions offered to see if they suit your trading needs and meet your trading goals. Check the currency pairs offered and the spreads. Lower spreads mean higher profit for you. Professional brokers always offer low spreads on majors: less than 2 pips on EURUSD, the most popular currency pair.
Using a market maker allows you to choose the best conditions for trading, to use the quotes available, and enter large transactions with a minimal initial outlay. Usually, you are able to buy/sell currency contracts equal to $100,000 with only $1000 used as a margin, in other words, use the 1:100 leverage. However, some brokers provide leverage of up to 1:500. Higher leverage is riskier, but it gives greater trading flexibility and increases potential profit.
One should also pay attention to country-specific nuances. In addition to the general rules described above, every Nigerian trader should pay attention to the following:
Check Customer Support Hours
You obviously do not want to be in a situation when you need help and you are unable to get it. You want to receive quality help and attention from your broker whenever you need it, even if you are in a different time-zone. Your best option is to sign up with a broker that has support staff available to help you anytime you have a question or a problem. Remember: services provided by reputable brokers are backed by free 24-hour support on weekdays, when the market is open. Check if they offer Skype, ICQ, online chat support in addition to basic phone and email support.
Check Payment Options available to Nigerians
Most forex brokers accept deposits by bank wires and credit cards. In addition to that, many brokers will allow you to fund your trading account via PayPal, Moneybookers, and various e-currencies, such as Liberty Reserve, pecunix, c-gold, etc. With so many funding options available, you may think that any broker will be convenient for a Nigerian trader. You are mistaken. First of all, you would be surprised at how many brokers accepting credit cards will not allow Nigerian traders to use cards for account funding. Secondly, Nigerians either simply do not have access to some payment options offered by a broker (PayPal, for example) or find them expensive to use (international bank wire).
If you are in Nigeria, your best bet is to find a forex broker accepting e-currencies for deposits. It is faster (even instant with some brokers) and cheaper than bank wires. If you want to use your credit card, make sure you ask your broker in advance if they accept credit cards from Nigerians.
Get information about the fees involved: ask if you will be charged a fee for funding your account and for getting the funds out. Find out how long it usually takes to fund your trading account and to process your withdrawal request. Ask if there’s a minimum amount required to make a withdrawal.
Education
The size and volatility of forex market provides excellent opportunities for making profits, however one should always remember about the risk factor when entering the foreign exchange market and understand the importance of forex education. You need a broker providing free educational tools, economic calendar, real-time exchange rates, forex market analysis, charts, and forecasts. Many brokers will allow you to sign up for free online seminars, also called “webinars”, and some may even hold free educational seminars in your country.
Looking for a forex broker welcoming Nigerian traders? Check out Forex-Metal at http://forex-metal.com
By CountingPips.com
US retail sales increased by more than expected in August and advanced by the largest amount in seven months. The advance estimate of the US monthly retail sales, released by the US Commerce Department, showed that sales increased by 1.2 percent to $373.1 billion in October from September. The data almost doubled the market expectations that were 
predicting a 0.7 percent rise for the month. September’s sales data was revised higher to an increase of 0.7 percent after an originally reported 0.6 percent advance.
On an annual basis, the retail sales data increased by 7.3 percent above the October 2009 sales level following September’s annual increase of 7.4 percent. Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, rose by 0.4 percent in October following a 0.5 percent increase in September and matched economic forecasts that were expecting core sales to rise by 0.4 percent.
Contributing to the higher sales level for October was a rise in automotive sales by 5.0 percent while building material, garden and supply stores increased by 1.9 percent for the month. Gasoline stations and nonstore retailers both increase by 0.8 percent in October while food and beverage store sales rose by 0.3 percent.
US Dollar mixed in Forex Markets, Stocks higher, Gold up
The US dollar has been mixed today in the forex markets against the other major currencies after the US retail sales release. The American currency has gained ground today versus the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen and the Swiss franc while declining against the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar in today’s fx trading action.
The U.S. stock markets, meanwhile, have been higher today with the Dow Jones increasing by over 70 points, the Nasdaq up by approximately 10 points and the S&P 500 rising by over 5 points in the middle of the US trading session.
Oil has edged higher by $0.22 to the $85.10 level while gold has increased by $5.30 to trade at the $1,370.70 level.
By Adam Hewison – A week ago everyone was cheering as gold and other commodity markets were making new highs. Last week however, things changed as everyone seemed to want to jump through the same door, at the same time, putting a great deal of downside pressure on many markets.
This phenomenon sometimes happens when people have multiple positions in multiple markets in the same direction. When they start to take profits, there is no one left to buy.
In today’s short video on gold, we show one of the clues that was given by this market all the way back in May of this year. The video runs about 4 minutes and will give you a very good idea of exactly what I’m talking about. As you know, we took profits on a 52-week rule on Tuesday around the $1,416 level and we also exited with a daily “Trade Triangle” signal on Friday at the $1,382 level.
I think traders of all skill levels will get a lot out of this short video.
Enjoy the gold video.
Watch the New Video Here Now..
All the best,
Adam Hewison
President of INO.com
Co-founder of MarketClub
By Chris Vermeulen, GoldAndOilGuy.com.
Over the past few months it seems as though everything has been tied to the dollar. Simple inter-market analysis makes it obvious that almost everything in the financial market eventually has an affect on stocks and commodities in some way. But recently trading has really been all about the dollar. If you watch the SP500 and gold prices you will notice at times virtually every tick the dollar makes directly affects the price and direction of gold and the SP500 index.
Let’s take a look at some charts to see the underlying trends and what they are telling us…
As you can see the trend is clearly down. Currently the dollar is trying to find a bottom as it bounces and pierces the previous high. The question everyone wants to know is if the dollar is about to rally and reverse trends or was Friday’s pierce of the October high just a shake out before the next leg down?
Back in late August the dollar pierced the July high on an intraday basis (shake out) just before prices dropped sharply. I think this could very easily happen again but when you see what gold volume is doing, it’s a different story.
Those who follow me closely know I focus on trading with the underlying trend, but manage my risk by trading smaller position sizes when the market has more uncertainty than normal with is what we are currently experiencing.
Gold and the dollar are almost inverse charts when comparing the two. Gold happens to be testing a key support level and its going to be interesting to see how the price holds up going forward. The one thing that has me concerned is the amount of selling taking place. The chart shows heavy volume selling and could be warning us of a possible trend change in the dollar, gold, oil and equities in the coming weeks.
Again the trend for gold is still up, so I would not be trying to short it at this time, rather look to buy into dips until the market trend proves us wrong. That being said, with the selling volume giving off a negative vibe and the fact that gold has rallied for such a long time, any new positions should be very small…
Oil looks to be forming a possible cup and handle pattern. If the Dollar continues to consolidate for another 1-3 weeks and breaks down, then we should see the price of oil trade in the range shown on the chart and eventually breakout to the upside. I have a $95-100 price target on oil if the dollar continues to trend down. Until we see some type of handle form here I am not trading oil.
The equities market looks to have had one of those days which spooked the herd. Friday the price dropped triggering protective stops with rising volume. I was watching the intraday chart as the SP500 broke below the weeks low, and this triggered protective stops which can be seen on the 1 minute charts. In an uptrend I prefer watching stops get triggered because it means traders are getting taking out of long positions and most likely looking to play the short side. When the masses become bearish on the market, that’s when I start looking to play the upside in a bull market (buy the dip).
The chart below clearly shows the days when the shake outs/running of the stops took place. Most traders were exiting their positions and/or going short because the chart looked bearish. One thing I find that helps my trading is that if the chart looks rally scary (bearish) then I start looking at a shorter term time frame for a possible entry point to go long using price and volume analysis.
In short, I feel the market is at a critical point which will trigger a very strong movement in the coming days or weeks. Because the dollar, gold, oil and the equities market have had such big moves I think trading VERY DEFENSIVE is the only way to play right now. That means trading small position sizes. Right now I am trading 1/8 – 1/4 the amount of capital I generally use on a trade. Meaning if I typically put $40,000 to work, right now I am only taking positions valued at $10,000.
Remember not to anticipate trend reversals by taking a position early. Continue to trade with the underlying trend with small positions or skip a couple setups if you feel strongly of a possible reversal. Once the trend reverses and the volume confirms, only then should you be playing the new trend. Picking tops can be expensive and stressful.
Chris Vermeulen
By Greg Holden – Ireland’s insistence to resist taking funds from the European Financial Stability Facility over the weekend has stirred the euro in today’s trading. While the US dollar has been gaining against its rivals due to European instability and a recent wave of quantitative easing (QE2), this sovereign debt issue now facing the euro zone has caused a few setbacks in euro trading.
The concern is over the widening of yield spreads for euro zone debtors – mainly Spain and Portugal. If Ireland refuses to take funds, it risks allowing these yield spreads to widen further, putting additional strain on the already-struggling Spanish and Portuguese economies. If Ireland, does take the funds, however, it allows itself to become further indebted in a time of crisis.
Not taking part, it seems, would be beneficial for Ireland, but allowing the European Facility to bail its institutions out would diminish some of the pressure which has been mounting throughout the region.
Countries like Germany, to say nothing of Spain and Portugal, would like to see Ireland get bailed out for a number of reasons, including that mentioned above. But also because Germany would like to see the Facility become a more permanent feature of the European financial system. Such a safety net would allow more flexibility and less uncertainty during times of crisis.
Since the start of these recent debt concerns, we’ve seen the EUR plummet against its primary counterpart – the USD – from a high of 1.4281 to its current price, over 600 pips lower, near the 1.3625 level. We can see in the chart below that a significant psychological barrier is approaching at the 1.3500 price level. Should it breach this region, we could see a wave of profit-taking push the pair lower in the short-run, with a potential target near 1.3350, and room for additional bearishness.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
By GCI Forex Research
Fundamental Outlook at 0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)
USD
FX markets trod water during the Asia session as investors looked to the opening of the Eurozone sovereign debt markets to provide some direction. EURUSD traded 1.3654-1.3751, and USDJPY 82.40-82.78. Speculation continues in the press that a bailout of Ireland could come as soon as this week, although Irish government officials have strenuously denied this, and IMF Managing Director Strauss-Kahn also dismissed the suggestions. The S&P500 finished down -1.2% on Friday, after global equities succumbed to the general risk-off mood. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 69.3 in early November (cons. 69.0) from 67.7 in October. Our US economists note that the rise reflected improvement in both current conditions and expectations. Long-term inflation expectations in the survey were unchanged at 2.8% – right in the middle of their longer-term range. The New York Fed began its first purchases of US Treasury securities under the Fed’s latest round of quantitative easing. Purchases worth $7.2 bn were concentrated in the 4-6 year segment of the curve, but yields still managed to rise on the day. Richmond Fed President Lacker said it is “unfair” to claim that the Fed’s decision to return to quantitative easing was designed to weaken the dollar. Today, retail sales and manufacturing data are due.
EUR
Although the spread of Irish and Portuguese sovereign bonds over bunds tightened significantly on Friday, concern over Eurozone sovereign risk continues to be a focal point for financial markets. Several Irish lawmakers, including Prime Minister Cowen and Finance Minister Lenihan, dismissed speculation that a bailout package for Ireland was being prepared. Justice Minister Ahern described the bailout talk as “fiction”. IMF Managing Director Strauss-Kahn said “so far I have not had a request, and I think Ireland can manage well”.
EU, IMF and ECB officials are scheduled to begin a visit to Greece today to assess progress on fiscal matters. If satisfactory, Greece could receive a further €9 bn in cash as part of the bailout plan agreed in May. Greece’s Prime Minister Papandreou said the term over which Greece repays the bailout loan may be extended.
Press speculation suggests that Eurostat could today revise up Greece’s 2009 budget deficit to 15.3%. On Friday, German GDP growth slowed to +0.7% q/q for Q3, broadly in line with consensus, thanks in part to the uncertain global outlook and the stronger euro. However, the recovery remains on a stable footing and the outlook for Europe’s largest economy is far superior to that of its peers. The Eurozone growth reading was also down slightly, falling to +0.4% q/q compared to +1% q/q for the previous quarter.
JPY
GDP for Q3 came in much stronger than expected at +0.9% (cons. 0.6%), and +3.9% y/y (cons. 2.5%). Despite the positive surprise, Economy Minister Kaieda offered a sombre assessment, saying the Q3 GDP expansion was due to a temporary rise in consumption, and that the Japanese economy is still at a standstill. He added that the yen’s rise may weigh on the economy further.
CHF
Our team of analysts is expecting an escalation of sovereign risk concerns within the Eurozone.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
EURUSD 1.3235 support.
EURUSD BEARISH Violation of 1.3635 has triggered the negative tone. Next support at 1.3235.
USDJPY BULLISH Recovery through 82.80 exposes 83.99. Only a break above 85.93 would confirm a bull trend. Initial support at 81.66 reaction low.
GBPUSD BULLISH Focus is maintained on 1.6379 ahead of 1.6458. Support holds at 1.5952.
USDCHF BULLISH Break of 1.9972 would expose 1.0183. Support at 0.9463.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Pullback from 1.0183 has support at 0.9652 ahead of 0.9542 reaction low.
USDCAD BEARISH Stalled in front of 0.9931, push through the level would expose 0.9820 with scope for 0.9712 next. Resistance at 1.0156.
EURCHF BEARISH Violation of 1.3265 has exposed 1.3072. Sustained break of 1.3834 required for resumption of bull trend.
EURGBP BEARISH Momentum is negative; move below 0.8390 would expose 0.8311. Resistance at 0.8638.
EURJPY NEUTRAL 115.68 and 111.05 reaction low mark the key near-term directional triggers.
Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.
GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.
DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.
By Anton Eljwizat – The pair has recorded much bearish behavior in the past several days. However, the technical data indicates that this trend may reverse anytime soon. For example, as I demonstrate below, the 8-hour chart signals that a bullish reversal is imminent. Forex traders have the opportunity to wait for the upward breach on the hourlies and go long in order to ride out the impending wave.
• Below is the 8-hour chart of the AUD/USD currency pair.
• The technical indicators used are the Slow Stochastic, MACD, and Relative Strength Index (RSI).
• Point 1: The Slow Stochastic indicates a bullish cross, signaling that the next move may be in an upward direction.
• Point 2: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals that the price of this pair currently floats in the over-sold territory, indicating upward pressure.
• Point 4: The MACD indicates an impending bullish cross, which may signal an upward movement is going to occur in the near future.
AUD/USD 8-Hour Chart
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
