USDJPY pulled back from 84.40 and is now facing the lower border of the price channel on 4-hour chart. As long a the channel support holds, the fall is treated as consolidation of uptrend, and another rise to 85.00 area is still possible. However, a clear break below the channel support will indicate that the upward move from 80.30 has completed at 84.40 already, then the following downward movement could bring price back to 81.00-82.00 area.
Market News Video – Googles (GOOG) advertising business practices being investigated by the European Commission, the European Unions antitrust regulators announced today. The Commission will probe whether Google imposes exclusivity obligations on its advertising partners, including whether Google prohibited them from placing competitor ads on their sites, as well as whether its practices blocked computer and software vendors from competing search tools.
By Adam Hewison – The gold market has been pushing out its normal level of frustration and anxiety for the past several weeks.
So the question becomes, is the gold market pausing to move higher, and of course the Bulls would argue this, or is it forming the head and shoulders top that many technicians are looking for? Of course, this would be a bearish sign for gold if this technical formation is completed.
I’ve just finished a short video that shows you what we’re looking at right now in gold and how I think it is going to be resolved. The video is a little over 2 minutes. It’s quick and to the point while supplying you with what you need to take your place in or out of this market. (See Video Below)
You may also wish to attend our gold webinar which we are holding on the 2nd of December at 4 PM EST. The webinar is free of charge, but you need to register in order to attend. This is no hype, but we have limited space and it will be on a first-come first served basis. The important thing is that you register as soon as possible.
Here is the link to register for the webinar: Register for the Webinar
While you do need to register to attend our gold webinar, in order to watch today’s short video no registration is required nor is there any charge.
We hope to see you at this week’s Gold webinar so don’t forget to register.
All the best and enjoy today’s video.
Adam Hewison
President of INO.com
Co-founder of MarketClub
To see more of Adam’s Videos click here or sign up for Adam’s Free 10-part Professional Trading Course.
Written by FastBrokers House
2010-11-30 00:00
Another morning of pain for the single currency, suffering across the board losses. EUR/USD down at 1.3015 from early 1.3100 havng been as low as 1.2982.
Russia and BIS both seen buying early and we traded in a narrow range either side of 1.3100 for some time. Then all of a sudden the US investment house who does God’s work came in and hammered EUR/USD. A series of rumours (see above) then circulated and we were heading lower and quickly.
Barrier interest at 1.3050 gave out easily, not even a pause. Reports kept coming that the US investment house was still selling and we soon had 1.3000 looming before us. Slight pause ahead of there before we pierced the level (1.2998 low) followed by bout of profit taking back up to around 1.3025/30.
But this was a brief reprieve before another wave of selling which then took us all the way to session low 1.2982. Model funds were notable buyers around the lows and we’ve recovered back above 1.3000.
Real money has reportedly been selling in recent trade.
USD/JPY down at 83.85 from early 84.05, having been as low as 83.73. The pairing has been pressured by lower US treasury yields, but Japanese importer buy orders lined up from 83.80 to 83.50 are providing a cushion.
Cable slightly lower at 1.5525 from early 1.5545, having been as low as 1.5509 so far. Selling of the EUR/GBP cross, down at .8385 from early .8425, has provided cable with some support. The cross has been as low as .8366, but buying by BUBA for month-end purposes lent some support in late morning trade.
Market Commentary provided by FastBrokers.
Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.
Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.
By CountingPips.com
The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Monday by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, showed that futures speculators trimmed their short bets of the US dollar against the other major currencies and are now short the euro. Non-commercial futures positions, those taken by hedge funds and large speculators, were overall net short the US dollar by $9.74 billion against other major currencies as of November 23rd. This is down from a total short position of $15.52 billion on November 16th, according to data published by Reuters which calculates the dollar positions against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc. Speculators have now raised their bets in favor of the dollar five out of the last six weeks.
On an individual currency basis, speculators added to their long positions for the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc while decreasing long positions in the euro, British pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Mexican peso, New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar compared to the week before.
EuroFx: Currency specs were now short the euro against the U.S. dollar by 8,293 contracts as of November 23rd. This is a decrease of over 16,000 contracts following net long positions of 8,606 contracts on November 16th and marks the fifth straight week of declining euro positions after touching a high of 48,243 on October 5th.
The COT report is published every Friday by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity. Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, where as a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar. Open interest is the number of open contracts that have not been closed by a transaction or by delivery.
GBP: The British pound sterling positions declined to a net of 10,197 long contracts after being long on November 16th by 23,771 positions. The latest data disrupts three straight weeks of increasing pound positions.
JPY: The Japanese yen net long contracts increased after two straight weeks of declines to 27,192 long contracts as of November 23rd from 22,858 net long contracts reported on November 16th.
CAD: The Canadian dollar positions dipped as of November 23rd after advancing for three straight weeks. CAD long positions registered 22,499 contracts after totaling 38,441 net longs on November 16th.
CHF: Swiss franc long positions edged higher to a total of 8,511 long contracts as of November 23rd after totaling a net of 7,803 long contracts on November 16th.
AUD: The Australian dollar positions decreased lower for the eighth straight week after reaching their highest level since April on September 28th. AUD contracts declined to a net amount of 28,471 long contracts as of November 23rd from 36,202 long contracts on November 16th.
NZD: New Zealand dollar futures positions declined as of November 23rd after four straight weeks of increases. NZD long positions fell to a total of 21,069 long contracts after a total of 23,445 long contracts the week before.
MXN: Mexican peso long contracts edged lower as of November 23rd to 87,246 net long positions from 93,217 longs the week prior. The latest data breaks up three straight weeks of increases for the Mexican peso speculative positions.
COT Data Summary as of November 23rd, 2010
Large Speculators Net Positions vs. the US Dollar
Euro: -8293 contracts
British pound sterling: +10,197 contracts
Australian dollar: +28,471 contracts
Canadian dollar: +22,499 contracts
Japanese yen: +27,192 contracts
Mexican peso: +87,246 contracts
New Zealand dollar: +21,069 contracts
Swiss franc: +8511 contracts
Go to the Commitment of Traders CME raw futures data
Further COT Resources from around the web:
By Russell Glaser – The appearance of a head and shoulders reversal pattern provides technical evidence to sell. Other long tern technical indicators support this hypothesis.
The daily chart for spot gold trading displays the formation of a bearish head and shoulders pattern. This reversal pattern may signal a top in the intermediate uptrend that spans from a low in July to a high in November.
Going to the chart, the head and shoulders are clearly defined with the left shoulder taking shape on 10/14, the head is located at 11/9, and the right shoulder at 11/23. A break below the rising neck line would signal a completion of the chart pattern. By measuring the height of the neckline we can estimate a potential move of $100 from the breach below the neck line.
Further evidence of a bearish move in the price of spot gold can be found when looking to the long term time frame. The November candlestick on the monthly chart appears set to end on a doji candlestick. This is a bearish signal for spot gold and supports the hypothesis of a price reversal.
The monthly chart also shows technical divergence in the Momentum oscillator. In December 2009 the Momentum indicator registered a high of 151 on a new high in the price. However, the next peak in June 2010 fell to 140 despite a new record high in the price. We may expect the November number to also fall which would provide further evidence of divergence thus supporting a drop on the price.
Given the bearish chart pattern and the accompanying negative signals from the monthly chart the uptrend appears to be weakening on a technical basis.
A sell would be recommended upon a break below the neckline from the head and shoulders pattern with a take profit level near the rising trend line on the daily chart. The trend line rises off the lows of February, March, and July.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
By GCI Forex Research
Fundamental Outlook at 0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)
USD
The dollar consolidated during the Asia session given the general lack of newsflow. EURUSD traded 1.3076-1.3150, USDJPY 83.83-84.41. Asian equities are broadly weaker at the time of writing, and the S&P 500 earlier finished fractionally in the red. Concern over Eurozone sovereign risk remains the primary driver of the dollar for now, and so any further widening of Eurozone bond spreads will likely continue to be dollar supportive. However, there are plenty of US data releases also due out this week and any positive surprises could further bolster the case of dollar bulls such as ourselves. We maintain our 3m EURUSD forecast of 1.25. Ahead in the US today, we have S&P/Case Shiller data, Chicago PMI, and the Conference Board consumer confidence index. Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota and Fed Chairman Bernanke are also scheduled to speak.
EUR
Eurozone sovereign spreads continued to widen despite the financial rescue of Ireland. The package did little to dissuade contagion fears and a poor Italian auction also put upward pressure on sovereign yields. Spanish and Italian 10y spreads over Germany reached euro-era record wides of 265bp and 191bp according to Bloomberg. And despite the Eurogroup’s statement regarding ‘private sector involvement’ post 2013, the market appears to be questioning the assurances for bonds issued before this date.
The fixed interest rate charged on Greece’s loan will be increased to 5.8%, to bring it into line with the terms of Ireland’s loan. The repayment schedule will also be extended out to 2021.
JPY
The jobless rate for October unexpectedly ticked higher to 5.1% from 5.0% previously. Economy Minister Kaieda said Japan’s economy is stalling, and the employment situation remains severe. He said the rise in JGB yields reflects a similar trend globally, and that he will continue to watch the impact of the BoJ’s latest easing efforts.
GBP
The UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)released its latest forecast for the UK economy with GDP growth for 2010 unsurprisingly revised up from 1.2% to 1.8%. GDP growth for 2011 was revised down from 2.3% to 2.1% versus our economist’s forecast of 2.3%. The OBR also said the UK has more than a 50% chance of meeting its fiscal mandate and the budget deficit forecasts are in line with earlier forecasts.
CAD
Canada’s current account deficit widened by $4.6 bn to record $17.5 bn in the third quarter, well above consensus estimates. Up next is GDP for Q3 and September. Monthly GDP should show decreased growth and the quarterly GDP figure will also show a drop from the previous quarter, though it will still show positive growth.
AUD
The AUD got a boost from a strong bounce in October building approvals which came in at +9.3% m/m (cons. 1.4%, prev. -5.3%). The current account deficit was larger than expected. Our Australian economics team are below consensus on the Q3 GDP report due out tomorrow, expecting to see a headline print of +0.3% q/q (cons. 0.4% q/q).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
EURCHF testing 1.3072.
EURUSD BEARISH Momentum is negative; the pair targets 1.2988 with scope for 1.2588 next. Resistance at 1.3354.
USDJPY BULLISH Recovery through 83.99 exposes 85.40 reaction high ahead of 85.93. Initial support at 83.57.
GBPUSD BEARISH Break of 1.5650 exposes 1.5509 and 1.5297 next. Near-term resistance at 1.5773.
USDCHF BULLISH Upside potential held at 1.0054 ahead of 1.0183. Near-term support at 0.9849.
AUDUSD BEARISH Focus is on 0.9542 reaction low; a break here would expose 0.9477 Fibonacci support. Resistance at 0.9818.
USDCAD BULLISH Sustained break of 1.0264 and 1.0374 required for confirmation of bull trend. Support holds at 1.0076.
EURCHF BEARISH Following the sudden decline yesterday, the cross now eyes 1.3072. Near-term resistance at 1.3401.
EURGBP BEARISH Break of 0.8402 would expose 0.8311. Resistance at 0.8564.
EURJPY BEARISH Clearance of 109.35 would expose 107.73. Near-term resistance at 113.67.
Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.
GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.
DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.
By Russell Glaser – The EUR/USD fell below a significant Fibonacci level as the euro continues to be sold amid European debt fears.
In European trading hours the euro was weaker on the back of the European debt crisis. Contagion fears are rampant as economists and analysts attempt to identify the next European nation that may require financial assistance.
The release of an 85 billion euro bailout package for Ireland has not helped to ease situation. A potential split in the government coalition threatens to break up the ruling government and delay the passing of the next year’s budget which includes considerable belt tightening as required by the joint EU/IMF bailout package.
Irish bonds have also sold off as new European legislation threatens subordinate bank bond holders to take a haircut of 80% while senior bank bond holders remain guaranteed by the Irish government.
The EUR/USD fell to a low of 1.2979 before recovering to the 1.3040 level. The daily low coincides with a downward sloping channel line off the mid-November lows which should serve as a support. The drop also took the pair below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level for the June to November move at 1.3080. A close below this level will move the next target lower to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.2800.
The EUR/CHF is also down sharply at 1.2973 following an opening day price of 1.3095.
Dollar strength is less apparent today as traders appear to be focused on euro selling. The GBP/USD is slightly lower at 1.5520 from 1.5533. The USD/CHF is down at 0.9975 from 1.0002.
Euro weakness should continue into the New York trading session with US consumer confidence set to be released at 15:00 GMT. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet is due to testify at 15:30 GMT. His comments may offer a bit of respite for the euro. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is set to speak at The Ohio State University Fisher College of Business in Columbus, Ohio at 20:00 GMT.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
Source: ForexYard
Traders moving assets to safer, lower yielding currencies appear to be playing a factor in the correction of the major crosses. The USD and JPY, which are seen as a safer bet than other currencies in times of market stress, will likely keep drawing demand as investors stay away from riskier assets.
The dollar hit its highest level in two months against the EUR and JPY on Monday rising on safe haven demand as the euro zone debt crisis kept investors averse to risk. By yesterday’s close, the USD rose against the EUR, pushing the oft- traded currency pair to 1.3110. The dollar experienced similar behavior against the JPY and closed at 84.25.
As the U.S. economy stabilizes, currency traders have started to focus more on fundamentals such as economic growth and short-term interest rates. That shift, just getting underway, could take the shine off the soaring USD in the coming months. A stronger currency is important to the U.S. because it entices foreign investors to Treasury debt that finances the nation’s record budget deficit. The downside is that it may restrain profit growth at companies with international sales by making U.S. exports more expensive.
Looking ahead to today, the most important economic indicator scheduled to be released from the U.S. is the CB Consumer Confidence at 15:00 GMT. Traders will be paying close attention to today’s announcement as a stronger than expected result may continue to boost the USD in the short-term. Traders are also advised to follow the Fed Chairman Bernanke Speech around 20:00 GMT. This speech is very likely to impact the dollar volatility. Traders are advised to watch closely, as this is likely to set the pace of the dollar going into the rest of the day’s trading.
The euro fell to a two-month low against the dollar on Monday and may face further losses after Ireland’s rescue did little to erase investors’ fears that another euro-zone economy may require a bailout. As a result, the EUR/USD fell as low as 1.3063, its lowest level since September. The 16 nation currency experienced similar behavior against the JPY and closed at 110.49.
European Union finance ministers endorsed an 85-billion-euro rescue package for Dublin and approved outlines of a permanent crisis-resolution system that could make private bondholders share the burden of restructuring sovereign debt after 2013.
Sentiment remained fragile, with a sale of Italian bonds meeting lukewarm demand and highlighting investors’ unease about euro-zone debt. Also, the cost of ensuring Portuguese and Spanish debt against default rose to a record high on Monday.
The yen finished yesterday’s trading session with mixed results versus the major currencies. The Japanese yen extended gains versus the euro on Monday, to trade around 110.50 levels amid a broad sell off in the euro. The yen experienced similar behavior against the NZD as the pair fell from 63.19 to 62.75 by days end. The yen finished even versus the USD and closed at 84.07.
A strong yen puts Japanese exporters at a disadvantage by making their goods less competitive overseas and erodes their repatriated earnings, in turn threatening the main growth driver of Japan’s fragile economy. As a result, Japan’s export growth dropped to its slowest pace of the year in October, also hit by softening overseas demand.
However, the yen has weakened from a 15-year high against the dollar in recent weeks as worries over the euro zone and tensions on the divided Korean peninsula bolster demand greenback.
Crude oil prices rose to $85.89 on Monday as Europe’s cold weather and hopes for revived consumer demand lifted refined products futures despite a strong dollar and fears the rescue plan for Ireland might not contain Europe’s debt woes.
The front-month crude price has seesawed after reaching a 25-month peak at $88.62 on November 11. It has not dropped below $80 since October 20.
As for today, traders should pay attention to the U.S Consumer Confidence report scheduled at 15:00 GMT, as it tends to have a large impact on Crude Oil’s price recently, especially in the short-term.
The EUR/USD cross has experienced a bearish trend for the past 2 weeks. However, it seems that this trend may be coming to an end. The RSI of the daily chart shows the pair floating in the over-sold territory, indicating that an upward correction will happen anytime soon. Going long with tight stops might be a wise choice.
The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-sold territory on the daily chart’s RSI indicating an upward correction may be imminent. The upward direction on the 4-hour chart’s Momentum oscillator also supports this notion. When the breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.
The bullish trend is losing its steam and the pair seems to consolidate around the 84.10 level. The daily chart’s RSI is already floating in an overbought territory suggesting that a recent upwards trend is weakening and a bearish correction is impending. Going short with tight stops might be a wise choice.
The USD/CHF cross has been experiencing much bullish behavior in the past week. However, there is technical data that supports a bearish move for today. The RSI of the daily chart indicates that the pair is floating in the overbought territory, leading to the conclusion that a downward correction is imminent. Going short with tight stops may turn out to pay off today.
Oil prices rose significantly yesterday and peaked at $85.89 per barrel. However, the 8-hour charts’ RSI is floating in an overbought territory suggesting that a recent upwards trend is losing steam and a bearish correction is impending. This might be a good opportunity for forex traders to enter the trend at a very early stage.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
Finance Ministers across the EU must have been weeping yesterday.
Having spent nigh on two weeks negotiating a bailout package with the Irish government hoping to increase investor confidence in the EU and prevent panic spreading to Portugal and Spain, the markets momentarily rallied. Yes! The announcement of an €83 rescue deal with the Irish had assured the markets that Ireland could become solvent with its debt secured by the EU.
But no. Not long after the package was announced credit default swap rates (the insurance prices investors pay to protect them in case the EU banks collapse) rose not only in debt-laden nations such as Portugal and Italy but Germany too. The Irish bailout in fact had the opposite effect than intended by EU-IMF officials and increased pessimistic sentiment toward the euro.
So what happened yesterday?
The problem is this: Investors increasingly realise that nations including Portugal and Spain face near-identical problems to the Irish, making EU bailouts for these nations look more inevitable. Political leaders in Portugal and Spain can posture but the numbers don’t lie: Spain’s total debt is 220% of national GDP at the moment for instance.
Hence if bailout packages for these EU members are inevitable the question is no longer whether the EU-IMF can rescue them, but whether core members (particularly Germany) have the political commitment to the EU project to do so.
Germany for instance (the powerhouse of Europe) must take a decision: whether to secure billions of euros of debt for members of the EU or simply let the project collapse. The former option is unpopular within Germany (understandably German citizens don’t like the idea of taking on colossal debt because other nations can’t manage their finances.) However officials within Germany as well as France seem extremely committed to the EU project.
This means in consequence that investors have shifted their attention from EU periphery members to the EU as a whole. The debt crisis no longer concerns individual countries but has become a test of the commitment of the project’s founding members. Hence the rise in German credit default swap rates, though Germany is comparatively solvent.
So until the German government puts its cards on the table – perhaps by pre-emptively buying the debt of less solvent EU members before the crisis explodes – investors are nervous about the EU. In consequence sentiment toward the euro is less than optimistic at the moment.
By comparison the dollar is performing strongly at the moment against both sterling and the euro. This is because of reduced risk appetite in the short term: investors treat the dollar as a safe haven currency in times of political turmoil.
Coming up later? Today the latest German unemployment figures are released, and are expected to show improvement for the nineteenth consecutive month. This might traditionally improve sentiment toward the euro but the debt crisis could dominate the markets instead.
[Update: German unemployment figures have been released and shown a nine thousand person drop.]
In addition the latest consumer confidence numbers are released in the US. These are expected to show increased optimism among US consumers, and could further strengthen the dollar.
By Peter Lavelle with currency exchange specialists Pure FX.
