By CountingPips.com
The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, showed that futures speculators sharply increased their bets in favor of the euro against the dollar for a fourth consecutive week. Non-commercial futures positions, those taken by hedge funds and large speculators, were net long the euro against the U.S. dollar by 35,330 contracts as of September 28th following net positioning of 5,097 contracts on September 21st. The September 21st data was the first time contracts had been in positive territory for the euro since early December 2009 and the latest data marked the best euro positioning since October 20, 2009 when contracts were positive by 36,033.
The COT report is published every Friday by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity. Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, where as a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar. Open interest is the number of open contracts that have not been closed by a transaction or by delivery.
The British pound sterling was the only major currency on the short side against the dollar last week in the CME futures market while the euro, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Mexican peso had a net positive amount of contracts.
The British pound sterling short positions were just -2,194 as of September 28th after being short on September 21st by -8,989 positions. This is the third straight week of improvement for the British pound future positions and could be back on their way towards positive levels.
The Japanese yen net long contracts increased to 28,666 as of September 28th from 23,100 net long contracts reported on September 21st. Yen positions had stayed above the 47,000 level for six weeks before the September 21st decline as many speculators may have decreased their yen long positions due to the Bank of Japan’s currency intervention.
The Canadian dollar positions edged lower after three consecutive weeks of increases and declined to a net total of 27,870 contracts after totaling 29,815 net longs on September 21st.
Swiss franc long positions advanced higher to 19,993 long contracts as of September 28th after totaling a net of 14,462 long contracts on September 21st. This is the highest level for long Swiss franc positions since December 2009.
The Australian dollar positions continued to rise and reached their highest level since April against the dollar to a net amount of 69,533 long contracts as of September 28th from 64,324 long contracts on September 21st.
New Zealand dollar futures positions declined to a total of 17,270 long contracts after a total of 18,408 long contracts. This decrease breaks a round of three consecutive weeks of increases.
Mexican peso long contracts jumped higher as of September 28th to 66,591 net long positions from 26,376 longs the week prior. Peso positions more than doubled last week and have now risen for three consecutive weeks.
COT Data Summary as of September 28th, 2010
Large Speculators Net Positions vs. the US Dollar
Euro: +35,330 contracts from +5,097 contracts on September 21st
British pound sterling: -2,194 contracts from -8,989 contracts
Australian dollar: +69,533 contracts from +64,324 contracts
Canadian dollar: +27,870 contracts from +29,815 contracts
Japanese yen: +28,666 contracts from +23,100 contracts
Mexican peso: +66,591 contracts from +26,376 contracts
New Zealand dollar: +17,270 contracts from +18,408 contracts
Swiss franc: +19,993 contracts from +14,462 contracts
Go to the Commitment of Traders CME raw futures data
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