By GCI Forex Research
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)
€
The euro appreciated sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2845 level and was supported around the $1.2700 figure. The common currency rocketed higher during the Australasian and European sessions on account of two main catalysts. First, it was reported that banks would have as many as eight years to comply with new capital requirement rules that were announced over the weekend in Basel. The new “Basel III” accord is designed to strengthen banks’ balance sheets and avert another financial meltdown. The gradual implementation of the accord, however, may leave the global banking system at greater risk. Second, Chinese economic data released overnight were stronger-than-expected and these data partially altered the view that China’s economic recovery was decelerating. There were no major economic data released in the U.S. today and August retail sales data will be released tomorrow with many forecasts calling for gains around +0.3%. U.S. bond giant PIMCO is now forecasting a 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield around 1.75% in Q1 2011, compared with its current level of 2.78%. In eurozone news, Q2 eurozone labour costs will be released tomorrow along with the September ZEW survey and July industrial production. German August wholesale prices data will be released tomorrow along with the September ZEW survey and French data released today saw the July current account deficit narrow to -€2.2 billion. Germany’s Bundesbank reiterated it sees a “significant” capital need for German banks. ECB President Trichet reported he sees “meager” growth in advanced economies. The European Union now expects the eurozone economy will have grown about 1.7% in 2010. ECB member Wellink reported European banks will require hundreds of billions of euro in new capital to comply with the new Basel capital adequacy requirements. Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.3240 level.
¥/ CNY
The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥83.85 level and was capped around the ¥84.35 level. The pair moved to intraday lows during the European session and North American dealers challenged this area despite the yen’s decline elsewhere. Stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data kept the greenback on the defensive today. Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa was appointed chairman of the Bank for International Settlements Asian Consultative Council. Institutional investors are said to have asked the Japanese government to maintain the size of its Japanese government bond buyback program. All eyes are on the Democratic Party of Japan leadership election battle tomorrow between Prime Minister Kan and Ichiro Ozawa. Many dealers believe Kan will win the battle but a victory by either party is not likely to have a material impact on Japanese economic or financial policy. The government will likely keep pressure on the central bank to ease policy further. Data to be released in Japan overnight include August Tokyo-area condominium sales, July industrial production, and July capacity utilization. The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.89% to close at ¥9,321.82. U.S. dollar bids are cited around the ¥84.60 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥107.90 level and was supported around the ¥106.95 level. The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥130.10 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥83.00 figure. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7618 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7696. Economic data released in China overnight was stronger-than-expected and Prime Premier Wen indicated China’s economy is “in good shape.” Industrial production was up 13.9% y/y and both retail sales and lending data exceeded forecasts. Data also revealed inflation printed at 3.5%, 1.25% above the benchmark one-year deposit rate. Some traders believe People’s Bank of China will be forced to raise rates on account of this imbalance while other economists believe these inflation data will cool. Today’s intraday high for the yuan represented a record high following the end of the dollar peg in July 2005. The U.S. House Ways and Means Committee will discuss China’s currency policy on 15-16 September.
£
The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.5485 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5350 level. Data to be released in the U.K. overnight include August RICS house prices, August Nationwide consumer confidence, July DCLG house prices, August consumer price inflation, and August retail prices. Bank of England Governor King will give a speech this week that will be closely watched given his support for Prime Minister Cameron’s spending cuts. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5115 level. The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the £0.8335 level and was supported around the £0.8265 level.
CHF
The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0100 figure and was capped around the CHF 1.0205 level. Data released in Switzerland today saw August producer and import prices climb 0.1% m/m and 0.5% y/y, exceeding forecasts. The September Credit Suisse ZEW survey will be released on Wednesday. Swiss National Bank Chairman Hildebrand spoke today and was supportive of the new Basel III capital revisions. Hildebrand also reported UBS and Credit Suisse maintain “many capital options.” SNB is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged this week when its interest rate announcement is released. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0290 level. The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.3035 level while the British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.5545 level.
Technical Outlook at 1230 GMT (EDT + 0400)
(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)
EUR/ USD 1.2830 1.2844, 1.2702
USD/ JPY 83.98 84.35, 83.83
GBP/ USD 1.5398 1.5487, 1.5351
USD/ CHF 1.0124 1.0206, 1.0114
AUD/USD 0.9333 0.9338, 0.9286
USD/CAD 1.0291 1.0344, 1.0281
NZD/USD 0.7317 0.7340, 0.7282
EUR/ JPY 107.68 107.92, 106.94
EUR/ GBP 0.8325 0.8333, 0.8269
GBP/ JPY 129.30 130.09, 129.21
CHF/ JPY 82.86 82.97, 82.53
Support Resistance Support Resistance
EUR/ USD USD/ JPY
L1. 1.2575 1.2870 81.80 87.15
L2. 1.2440 1.3045 80.80 88.25
L3. 1.2220 1.3290 77.20 89.45
GBP/ USD USD/ CHF
L1. 1.5230 1.5810 1.0215 1.0600
L2. 1.5010 1.6040 1.0095 1.0820
L3. 1.4860 1.6210 0.9925 1.1040
AUD/ USD USD/ CAD
L1. 0.8645 0.8965 1.0450 1.0860
L2. 0.8510 0.9065 1.0240 1.1060
L3. 0.8345 0.9220 1.0005 1.1490
NZD/ USD EUR/ JPY
L1. 0.6910 0.7220 103.40 108.90
L2. 0.6590 0.7445 101.15 113.25
L3. 0.6265 0.7585 99.90 118.05
EUR/ GBP EUR/ CHF
L1. 0.7870 0.8320 1.2845 1.3330
L2. 0.7785 0.8535 1.2650 1.3615
L3. 0.7415 0.8745 1.2430 1.3985
GBP/ JPY CHF/ JPY
L1. 126.70 135.35 78.35 82.65
L2. 123.30 138.40 76.45 85.80
L3. 118.85 140.70 75.05 87.15
Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.
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