By Cedric Welsch – Below we provide a composite of forex indicators explained. An indicator, in general, is one that signals a change. In forex world, it means currency fluctuations. Currency fluctuations are affected by several factors. To monitor or predict these changes, two broad categories of indicators are used: technical and economic. A technical approach is one that uses price history changes and chart patterns. Some examples would be stochastic oscillator, moving average convergence divergence or MACD, and RSI or relative strength index. Economic indicators are, just that, based on economic data. The common economic measurements are GDP growth, unemployment, CPI, retail sales, and industrial production.
Let us dive more closer into the world of technical indicators. A measurement of the strength of the underlying currency movement trend can be defined by its RSI or relative strength index. This normalized index is a ratio of the positive moves relative to negative ones to determine which direction is more prevalent. The index is based on a zero to one hundred point value. A number below thirty indicates oversold and over seventy as overbought.
Another indicator, the MACD, can signal a change in direction over a specific window of time measured. This moving average convergence divergence calculates the difference between two exponential moving averages like a two hundred day versus a fifty day. Graphing this difference versus the moving average of the difference will provide cross over points that signal a change in direction.
The stochastic oscillator is a very good gauge for the sustainability of a trend whether it is positive or negative. This methodology calculates percentage values based on closing prices. In the case of an uptrend, the closing prices are focused on the upper end of a trading range, and in a downtrend they are near the bottom end. The concluding result is a band of lines which delineates an uptrend or downtrend. Any variation away from these bands would result in a trend change signal.
For forex indicators explained, one needs to include economic factors. GDP growth is the most prevalent economic indicator. It reflects the change in the gross domestic product, or an economy’s total value of its output which is the goods and services it produces. GDP is measured on an annual, quarterly, and sometimes monthly basis. Although GDP growth shows the change in economic output, it should not be viewed in isolation.
Industrial production helps measure productivity, as well. This calculation measures the manufacturing prowess of a nation. Another offshoot of this measurement is capacity utilization. The greater the amount or increase in unused capacity could well signal a decrease in economic activity and, hence, a lower currency value.
Unemployment is by far among the top most important economic factors. It is a gauge of the population’s production health, meaning the number of people it takes to produce the goods and services. The greater the number of people engaged in a productive endeavor, the stronger the economic engine. As more people are employed, there is more consumption and more growth. This also is reflective in the housing statistics, as homeownership rates increase.
As stated earlier, unemployment affects consumption. However, it is not a direct correlation. A country can have a relatively healthy unemployment rate with lower consumption. The population can opt to save versus spend. Hence, retail sales are a good indicator of economic sentiment. The more optimistic one is about the future the more likely one is to spend.
Lastly, GDP and retail prices are affected by inflation. The value of goods and services can vary depending on input costs. To gauge inflation, the consumer price index or CPI is used. This index measures the change in value of a set group of goods and services. This index, along with the PPI or producer price index, can help determine the profit or surplus of an economy. A composite understanding of these indicators along with the technical signal previously discussed, provides a good forex indicators explained overview.
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