Good day FX peeps! To cap the week I present to you an update of the CADJPY. You see, the pair has consolidated within a small symmetrical triangle after it broke down from a bigger descending triangle formation. As of the moment, the pair is already nearing the apex of symmetrical triangle. This suggests that a break out whether to the upside or to the downside is imminent. But given the pair’s general trend (downtrend) and its recent break down from a descending triangle formation, I can say that it has a higher chance of moving south than north. Even it breaks the resistance of the small triangle, a solid resistance is still present at the 82.00 marker which incidentally is also the former support of the previous descending triangle to push back down. In any case, a move below the support of the present triangle could send it back to the previous low at 78.41. A move above the 82.00 level, on the other hand, could change the pair’s course to at least sideways.
In my post last September 6 (please see it here), I mentioned that it’s possible for the Bank of Canada (BOC) to hold its interest rate unchanged rather than hiking it. However, I was proven wrong when the central bank actually raised its benchmark interest rate as expected by the market by 0.25% to 1.00% from 0.75%, making the interest rate differential between the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen wider. This decision, though, was not enough for the CADJPY to break key resistances at its long term downtrend line and at 82.00 as it only increased from an opening of 79.93 to close at 80.96. Yesterday’s weaker-than-projected housing starts number (183k vs. 185k) and the worsening of Canada’s trade balance figure to -C$2.7 billion from -C$1.8 billion did not help as well.
Canada’s employment change and unemployment rate for the month of August are on deck today at 11:00 am GMT. Canadian firms are seen to have added about 30,800 jobs in August after laying about 9,300 during the previous month. The country’s jobless rate, though, is still projected to remain the same at 8.0%. Generally, an improvement in Canada’s labor market is bullish for the economy and the Loonie. But is the expected increase in employment or better enough for investors to push the CADJPY above 82.00? Let us see.
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