USDCHF broke above the downtrend line from 1.0624 to 1.0464, suggesting that a cycle bottom is being formed at 1.0257 on 4-hour chart. Key resistance is at 1.0464, a break above this level will confirm the cycle bottom and indicate that the fall from 1.0624 had completed, then the following upward movement could bring price to 1.0550-1.0600 area. Support is at 1.0257, only break below this level could trigger another fall to 1.0200 zone.
By CountingPips.com
The most recent Commitments of Traders (COT) report released on Friday showed that futures speculators increased their bets for the U.S. dollar against the euro for the first time in seven weeks. The COT data as of August 17th, released by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange showed that non-commercial futures positions, those taken by hedge funds and large speculators, were net short the euro against the U.S. dollar by -14,627 contracts. This is an increase of 10,896 contracts after being net short the euro by 
-3,731 contracts the week before on August 10th. Euro short positions had declined for six consecutive weeks and on August 10th marked their best showing since the week of December 8, 2009 when positions were short by -511 contracts.
The COT report is published every Friday by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity. Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, where as a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
The euro and the British pound sterling were the only major currencies on the short side against the dollar last week in the CME futures market. The Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Mexican peso all continued to have a net long amount of contracts.
The British pound sterling numbered 4,431 short positions as of August 17th after being on the long side on August 10th with 5,021 long positions. The turn back to a net total of short positions reverses five straight weeks of improvements for British pound positions against the dollar.
Swiss franc long positions, which moved over to the long side against the dollar in the middle of June, rose to 11,750 long contracts as of August 17th after falling to 10,901 long contracts the week prior.
The Japanese yen net long contracts edged lower last week to 49,969 from 52,478 net long contracts on August 10th. Yen positions have made a substantial rise from May after being short by -65,612 contracts on May 4th.
The Australian dollar futures positions continued to advance and gained for sixth straight week. Aussie contracts were net long by 57,697 contracts as of August 17th following a net of 54,370 long contracts on August 10th. New Zealand dollar futures positions edged lower for second week with 12,139 long contracts after a total of 12,544 long contracts as of August 10th.
The Canadian dollar long positions fell to a net of 29,514 long contracts after 41,179 net longs the week before while Mexican peso long contracts also dipped after gaining for five straight weeks to 70,553 longs from 72,369 longs the week prior.
COT Data Summary (Net Positions vs. the US Dollar) as of August 17th, 2010
Euro: 14,627 short contracts from 3,731 shorts on August 10th
British pound sterling: 4,431 short contracts from 5,021 long contracts
Australian dollar: 57,697 long contracts from 54,370
Canadian dollar: 29,514 long contracts from 41,179
Japanese yen: 49,969 long contracts from 52,478
Mexican peso: 70,553 long contracts from 72,369
New Zealand dollar: 12,139 long contracts from 12,544
Swiss franc: 11,750 long contracts from 10,901
By Jonathan Dayan – Visualize a professional financial trader who was so good at what he or she did that they actually outperformed the world’s best investment funds. Imagine that it was possible for you to recruit this talented individual as your personal trading guru who you could learn from, interact with and even copy: trade for trade. Now imagine that doing so wouldn’t cost you a cent. That’s the potential opportunity that several social trading networks are now dangling in front of new recruits. If it sounds too good to be true then you should definitely read on.
The ability to recruit a “guru” who you can use as a model for your trading decisions is one of the key advantages offered by social trading networks. By using a social trading network you can see how every other member of the social trading community is investing, learn for yourself how successful individual traders are proving and even decide to directly copy the trades of any trader you choose. This is a powerful tool for traders at all levels of ability because frankly who wouldn’t want a guru to help show them the way, particularly if the privilege doesn’t cost you anything.
Choose Your Own Expert
These days, a lot of people out there seem to regard themselves as financial experts. Every month seems to bring ever more books and blogs advertising the latest sure-thing tip for better financial trading. As consumers and traders, however, what guarantees do we have that the experts we’re being asked to believe in are actually any more effective as financial trader than we are ourselves? Social trading networks offer the opportunity to actually see their top traders ranked right before your eyes. With a whole heap of usable statistics available on social trading websites like eToro’s OpenBook it becomes much easier for you to see for yourself how your potential gurus shape up. There are now thousands of traders active on social trading networks, and more all the time, as a result you now have the opportunity to select for yourself any trader or collection of traders to be your personal guru/s simply by reviewing the performance of the members of the social trading community.
Follow Your Guru
It’s now easier than ever before to follow the trading activity of traders you respect. Social trading networks offer sophisticated monitoring and alert tools which let you know what your chosen traders are trading and when they’re trading it. Better still, they give you the ability to keep tabs on their success rates so you can learn for yourself which parts of their trading strategies are yielding the most success and which are proving to be ineffective.
What You Can Learn About Your Guru Through A Social Trading Network:
Observe, Interact, Copy
At the center of the appeal which social trading networks offer is the ability to get to the heart of how other people trade the financial markets. With the range of trading tools that the social trading networks offer you can see every aspect of the trading of any financial trader you choose to observe. With messaging features bundled into most of the social trading networks you also have the ability to contact your chosen traders and ask them questions about their trading strategies or for advice in your own trading. Of course there is no guarantee that they’ll respond but those that do can offer you valuable hints and tips to help you improve your financial trading. Perhaps the most powerful ability offered by social trading networks is the capacity to directly copy any of the trades which other traders execute. The value of this is hard to overstate – particularly for first time traders, because it offers you the opportunity to profit from the financial markets together with the best traders on the network. Picture the situation: you’ve trawled through the trader rankings, picked out the trader you want to follow and now you have the opportunity to copy in real-time any or all of the trades which they execute – this unprecedented ability makes social trading networks a uniquely powerful tool for financial traders.
More Guru Power, No Cost
Just how powerful a tool social trading networks are for traders who are seeking to get the benefit of other traders’ wisdom is made crystal clear when you compare the kind of access you get to your potential guru through a social trading network with the access you get to a fund manager when you subscribe to an investment fund. Aside from the first and very obvious difference that you pay to get the benefit of a fund manager whereas social trading networks like the eToro OpenBook are completely free to join there are a number of other differences. Firstly, whereas as mentioned before you can see every aspect of a potential gurus trading behavior through a social trading network, when you invest in a fund you only get intermittent and limited reports on the activity of the fund as a whole. Secondly, when deciding to copy the trades of a potential guru the final choice whether to invest or not by following a particular trade is always your own. An investment fund, however, requires you to sign off on all the investment decisions made by the portfolio manager which takes away from you the freedom to query their judgment on a case by case basis or to follow them in only those parts of their strategy where they’re strong.
In conclusion here’s a lot to be said for the guru concept and for social trading networks in general. Information is power in financial trading and social trading networks supply it by the barrel load. In particular they give you the tools to see for yourself how other traders are performing, information which you can use to follow and even copy the trades of those traders you most respect. As a result, you earn the opportunity to recruit the power of a trading superstar to help boost your trading without it costing you money or the freedom to ultimately decide how you trade for yourself.
Forex Market Analysis provided by eToro
Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
By Russell Glaser – During the past two weeks’ trading we have seen a shift in the technicals of the EUR/USD to the downside.
Last Friday’s trading saw a sharp drop in the value of the pair by 0.7%. This made significant inroads into shifting technicals for the pair, causing a breach of the long term trend line on the weekly chart. The pair rose as high as the 20-week exponential moving average before heading lower. The moving average line is now downward sloping, indicating the trend has moved to the downside
This same level could once again serve as resistance as the upward sloping trend line comes in at the same price of 1.2890. Following a breach below a rising trend line, the price has a tendency to move back to the trend line which can act as a resistance level.
Support for the EUR/USD comes in at 1.2645, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the November high, followed by the support at 1.2470.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
Welcome to another week of FX trading! In today’s fx feature is an update of the US dollar index. In my last post, I took specific note of the inverted head and shoulders pattern that was brewing at that time (please see my previous blog here). And guess what, the index has broken out from the formation already! You see, the index had been trading on a downward slope for quite some time. Though as you can see from its chart, it already moved above the said downtrend and had recently reversed as well. Given this recent price action, I can say that the index and the US dollar (versus the other currencies) itself will most likely head higher in the days to come. The USDX’a minimum upside target is seen to be somewhere around 86.00 (estimated by projecting the height of the formation from the point of breakout). Still, the index can go lower though neckline of the pattern should prevent it from falling any further.
The week will kick off in the US with the release of its exiting homes sales for the month of July tomorrow (August 24). Existing home sales are seen to fall slightly to 4.66 million after it tallied a score of 5.37 million the other month. New home sales for the same month are projected to have reached 355,000, better than the 350,000 that was marked previously. If the US logs in a weak existing home sales then the new home sales for the month could come out frail as well. Durable goods orders, which unexpectedly contracted in June, are projected to have increased in July. The core figure is expected to have gained by 0.6% after sliding by 0.9%. The headline figure is also anticipated to have gained expanded by 3.0% after dipping by 1.2%. But since last month tally was suddenly changed to worse, July’s figure could fall below the market’s consensus. If any or all of these accounts fail to impress, risk aversion could rise which then could send investors to the safety of the greenback.
More on LaidTrades.com …
By Dan Eduard – The U.S. dollar has steadily been making gains against the Danish krone since the first week of August. In the last 3 weeks or so, the pair has gone up around 2600 pips. As we will illustrate through a number of technical indicators, the USD/DKK pair may finally be set for a bearish correction.
We will be looking at the 8-hour chart for USD/DKK, provided by Forexyard. The technical indicators used are the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Williams Percent Range and MACD/OsMA.
1. As we can be seen, the RSI is currently right around the 70 level, which typically indicates the pair is right on the edge of entering into overbought territory. Traders can take this as a sign that a bearish correction could occur in the near future.
2. Further supporting our theory, the Williams Percent Range is currently right at the -20 level. Anything above the -20 level is generally taken as a sign that the pair is in the overbought region, meaning downward movement is likely to occur.
3. Finally, in a clear sign of impending downward movement, the MACD/OsMA shows a cross has already formed well above any resistance levels. Analysts take this as a sign that the krone may finally be set to make some serious gains on its U.S. counterpart.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
By Dan Eduard – Last week began with positive releases from the U.S. economy. The data had created speculation that the U.S. economic recovery is advancing, and that global recovery will follow as well. As a result the U.S. dollar fell on all fronts. However, two disappointing publications from the U.S. on Thursday were enough to reverse the trend, boosting the dollar and yen as a result. It seems that fears of a potential slow down in the global economic recovery are currently driving the market from riskier assets like the euro and U.K. pound.
This trend is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, and considering the heavy news week ahead, traders should be able to generate several profitable positions.
Here are today’s leading economic publications:
• 07:30 GMT, German Flash Manufacturing PMIServices PMI – This is a purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which attempts to reveal the current market conditions in Germany. Analysts’ expectations for both indicators are just a little above average. If the end results will beat expectations, the euro might be supported as a result.
• 08:00 GMT, Euro-Zone Flash Manufacturing PMIService PMI – These PMI’s are for the entire euro-zone, not just Germany. These releases tend to have a smaller market impact, however an unusual result could create volatility. If the end result will beat expectations, the euro may rise as a result.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
Source: ForexYard
After four days in which the euro and British pound had dominated the market, the trend markedly reversed by last Thursday. Several negative economic reports from the U.S. have added to concerns regarding the global economic recovery, boosting risk aversion. Both the U.S. dollar and yen saw gains as a result. Will the dollar and the yen continue to strengthen this week as well?
The U.S. dollar finished a rather volatile trading week with modest gains against most of the major currencies. The dollar began last week’s trading down about 150 pips against the euro, but eventually closed the session with a 70 pip gain. A similar trend took place against the British pound.
The dollar weakened against most of the major currencies until last Thursday, as reports showed that the U.S. economy is recovering faster than expected. The global demand for long-term U.S. financial assets rose in June from a month earlier as investors abroad bought treasuries and agency debt and sold stocks. Net buying of long-term equities, notes and bonds totaled $44.4 billion for the month, beating expectations for $36.3 billion, and well above $35.3 billion in May. In addition, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose for the first time in 4 months in July. This has eased concerns for deflation in the U.S. and was interpreted as another signal that the U.S. economic recovery is advancing, and that a global recovery might quicken it’s pace as well. As a result, investors looked for higher-yielding assets, such as the euro and the pound.
However, disappointing data from the U.S. economy released on Thursday had turned the trend around. The weekly Unemployment Claims showed that 500,000 individuals filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week, failing to reach expectations for 478,000 requests. In addition, the Philly Manufacturing Index showed that manufacturing in the Philadelphia region unexpectedly shrank in August for the first time in a year. These reports have crated uncertainty regarding the recovery of the U.S. economy, and as a result turned investors to open long positions on the safe-haven dollar.
As for the week ahead, many interesting economic releases are expected from the U.S. Traders are advised to focus on the Existing Home Sales, Core Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, weekly Unemployment Claims and the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product publications, as there are likely to have the largest impact on the dollar.
The euro dropped against most of its major counterparts during last week’s trading session. The euro began last week with a rising trend, yet finished it with a 70 pip loss against the U.S. dollar and a 120 pips loss against the Japanese yen.
The euro fell last week as negative data from the euro-zone’s leading economies have increased concerns regarding the pace of recovery for the region. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a survey of German institutional investors and analysts who are asked to rate the 6-month outlook for Germany, dropped more than expected, and reached a 16-month low. This has been the 4th consecutive decline for this survey, suggesting that German economic growth may be slowing down. In addition, the euro-zone’s Current Account, an indicator which measures the difference between imported and exported goods and services was released with a negative figure, the 3rd in a row. The negative report has decreased risk-appetite in the market, and turned investors to look for safe-haven currencies such as the yen.
Looking ahead to this week, traders are advised to follow the major economic releases from Germany, as it is the biggest economy in the euro-zone. Special attention should be given to the German Business Climate report, which will also try to detect the German economic outlook for the next 6 months. This week’s euro trading will be largely affected by the result of this publication.
The Japanese yen rallied against most of the major currencies during last week’s trading session. EUR/JPY tumbled about 100 pips, causing the pair to hit a 7-week low. The yen gained about 100 pips against the British pound as well.
The yen strengthened last week as economic reports from the U.S. and the euro-zone have signaled that the global economic recovery is slowing. Reports showed that the unemployment situation in the U.S. continues to deteriorate, as 500,000 people have filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. The euro-zone has provided negative data as well, as the German ZEW Economic Sentiment report, which attempts to predict the economic outlook of Germany for the next 6 months, has declined for the 4th consecutive time.
The disappointing economic data from both the U.S. and the euro-zone are the main reason that concerns regarding the global economic recovery are taking place. These concerns are driving investors to open long position on the yen, which is considered to be a relatively safe investment. As long as the leading economies will continue to provide negative signals, the yen is likely to strengthen further.
As for this week, a batch of data is expected from the Japanese economy. Traders are advised to follow the Japanese Trade Balance and the Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index, as these reports tend to have a large impact on the yen.
Crude oil continued to tumble during last week’s trading session. A barrel of crude oil was trading at around $75.70 at the beginning of the week, and eventually dropped to around $73.85 a barrel by Friday.
The main reason for crude oil’s decline seems to be the negative data from the U.S, the biggest oil consuming nation. The weekly Unemployment Claims rose by 12,000 to 500,000 in the past week, the highest figure since November 2009. In addition, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that its general economic index slipped to -7.7 on August, also signaling a possible contraction of the U.S. economy. It seems that as long as the U.S. economy continues to provide negative data, demand for gasoline in the U.S. is likely to decrease, and as a result crude oil prices will continue to decline.
Looking ahead to this week, traders are advised to continue following the major economic updates from the U.S. and the euro-zone, as these seem to have the largest impact on oil prices. Most significantly, traders should follow the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report, scheduled for Wednesday, as this publication tends to have an instant affect on crude oil prices.
The pair has been experiencing some very bearish behavior in the past week, as it currently stands between the 1.2700-1.2730 levels. The main oscillators of the daily chart indicate this trend may continue into the near future. However, the 4-hour Slow Stochastic reveals that a bullish cross is about to occur anytime soon, indicating that a bullish correction may be imminent. Now may be a ripe time to take advantage of the situation at an early stage.
The cross has received increasing support as of late, as this pair approaches new highs. The continuation of the bullish trend is supported by the 1-day and 1-week charts’ MACD. On the other hand, the 4-hour and 1-day charts’ Slow Stochastic seems to contradict this. It may be wise to open a long position with tight stops before the bullish trend comes to an end.
The pair has been going through much bearish behavior in the past several days. The MACD of the 1-hour chart fails to show a clear signal as to the future direction of this pair. However, the 1-day Stochastic Slow and RSI show that this pair is still likely to go lower before making a bullish correction. Traders should take advantage of this bullish trend now while it still carries steam.
This pair’s recent drop has pushed the price into the over-sold territory on the RSI of both the hourly and 4-hour charts, signaling an upward correction could be in the making. With a bullish cross recently occurring on the 4-hour chart’s Slow Stochastic, this move may indeed be imminent. Going long might be a good choice.
Gold prices have been increasing rapidly lately, as they stand at over $1229per ounce. The 1-day and 1-week chart shows that this bullish trend is set to continue. This is also supported by the 1-hour and 4-hour MACD oscillator. It may be a wise move for forex traders to enter this very popular trend.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
By eToro – Riskier assets performed poorly this week as investors moved out of equities and commodities and moved into safe havens such as government bonds and the dollar. Gold was a standout commodity, where oil bore the brunt of investor’s fear that the global economies are beginning to slow down.
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Forex Market Analysis provided by eToro
Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
Last week began with positive releases from the U.S. economy. The data had created speculation that the U.S. economic recovery is advancing, and that global recovery will follow as well. As a result the U.S. dollar fell on all fronts. However, two disappointing publications from the U.S. on Thursday were enough to reverse the trend, boosting the dollar and yen as a result. It seems that fears of a potential slow down in the global economic recovery are currently driving the market from riskier assets like the euro and U.K. pound.
This trend is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, and considering the heavy news week ahead, traders should be able to generate several profitable positions.
Here are today’s leading economic publications:
• 07:30 GMT, German Flash Manufacturing PMIServices PMI – This is a purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which attempts to reveal the current market conditions in Germany. Analysts’ expectations for both indicators are just a little above average. If the end results will beat expectations, the euro might be supported as a result.
• 08:00 GMT, Euro-Zone Flash Manufacturing PMIService PMI – These PMI’s are for the entire euro-zone, not just Germany. These releases tend to have a smaller market impact, however an unusual result could create volatility. If the end result will beat expectations, the euro may rise as a result.
