Month: July 2010

By Greg Holden – The USD/CHF appears to be anticipating a bullish correction, and a number of technical indicators support this notion.

– Below is the USD/CHF daily chart provided by ForexYard. The indicators used are the Stochastic (slow), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the MACD/OsMA.

– Point 1: The Stochastic (slow) is giving off multiple bullish crosses, indicating that the next move could be in an upward direction.

– Point 2: The RSI is showing the price floating deep within the over-sold territory, but also seems to signal that the indicator is turning upward, highlighting a growing level of upward pressure.

– Point 3: The MACD/OsMA is showing the lines in a descending pattern, but a bullish cross is impending. Once the cross takes place an upward correction may occur.

– Traders can try to anticipate when this bullish correction will occur and jump in for some quick, short-term profits.

USD/CHF – Daily Chart

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By CountingPips.com

The latest COT data out on Friday showed that futures speculators bets for the U.S. dollar against the euro were higher for a second straight week as of June 29th, according to the Commitments of Traders (COT) data released by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Non-commercial futures positions, those taken by hedge funds and large speculators, were net short the euro against the U.S. dollar by -73,670 contracts after being net short the euro by -70,974 contracts the week before on June 22nd.

The COT report is published every Friday by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity. Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, where as a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are expecting that currency to fall against the dollar and net longs expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

Other major currencies net short in the CME futures market against the dollar as of June 29th were the British pound and the Swiss franc while the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and Mexican peso all had a net long amount of contracts against the dollar.

The British Pound Sterling net shorts decreased to -34,771  from a total of -46,346
that were reported net short on June 22nd while the Swiss franc positions were net short -12,848 contracts after -10,265 net shorts the week before.

The New Zealand dollar futures positions rose over to the long side with 822 long contracts last week and increased to 2,486 long contracts as of June 29th. The Japanese yen net long contracts surged to 27,427 as of June 29th following 3,630 long contracts on June 22nd. Investors have reversed their yen positions substantially from being short by 65,612 contracts on May 4th.

The Australian dollar futures positions were net long by 12,854 contracts as of June 15th, edging higher after totaling net 11,806 long contracts on June 22nd and down from a total of 80,674 net longs on April 13th.

The Canadian dollar long positions fell to net 15,894 contracts and after 26,353 net longs the week before while the Mexican peso long contracts moved higher for a third straight week to 42,496 longs from 35,639 longs the prior week.

COT Data Summary (vs. the US Dollar) as of June 29th

Australian dollar net long on June 29 increase to 12,854 contracts from 11,806
British pound sterling futures contracts were net short by -34,771 from -46,346
Canadian dollar net long contracts fell to 15,894 from 26,353
Euro net short positions declined for a second straight week to -73,670 from -70,974
Japanese yen futures contracts after turning net long last week at +3,630 registered long contracts of 27,427
New Zealand dollar long positions increased to 2,486 on June 29 from net long of 822 contracts on June 22
Mexican peso long contracts increased for third week in a row to 42,496 from 35,639 on June 22
Swiss franc short contracts dipped on June 29 to -12,848 from -10,265 on June 22

Go to the Commitment of Traders CME futures data

Good day forex and stock fans! Earlier today I presented my commentary on the recent price action of Shanghai Composite Index (kindly see my previous post here). Now, it’s Japan’s turn to be heard so here it is. On today’s canvas is the daily chart of the Nihon Keizai Shimbun Stock Market Index or the Nikkei 225 Index for short. In case you do not know, the Nikkei is the leading stock market in Japan which comprises the top 225 companies that are listed in the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index gives a good indication of financial and economic conditions in Japan, as well as Asia. The Tokyo Stock Exchange, by the way, is ranked number 2 among the largest t stock exchanges in the world in terms of market capitalization behind the NYSE. For a long time, Japan had also been the second-largest economy in the world behind the US. Though, the Land of the Rising Sun had been overtaken by China in 2009 when the latter posted a whopping 11.9% jump in its GDP during the fourth quarter of the year. In any case, the Nikkei is still one of the most followed indices in the world.

So looking at the Nikkei’s daily chart, it seems to be on the verge of breaking down from a head and shoulders formation as well. The index is now hanging by a thread as it trades just above the 9,200.00 psychological number. The index would easily fall down to 9,000.00 if 9,200 breaks. But if the support at 9,000.00 gives way, it could further slide until it meets its minimum downside target of 7,750.00. The 50-day moving average has just crossed below the 200-day MA, suggesting a likely move downwards. The MACD has also made a bearish crossover signal with its histogram recently turning negative. On the upside, if the 9,000.00 holds, then the index could continue with its sideways movement.

Fundamentally, despite being ranked as the number 3 largest economy in the world, Japan has also been plagued with many heartaches. To top the list is its problem regarding deflation. In May, Japan reported a 1.3% year-over-year decline in the Tokyo core CPI. With the country’s household spending also dipping by 0.7% during the same month, it is pretty obvious that domestic demand in Japan is nowhere near to pull its CPI back in the positive territory. While falling prices may sound good at first, it indicates a lack of consumption in the country which by the way takes up about 57% of the country’s GDP. In fact the Bank of Japan is anticipating that the country will stay in this environment for at least five more years.

The appreciation of the yen due to the risk aversion in the market is also not helping Japan’s cause. Japan is also an export-based country. And as the yen gets stronger Japan’s exports become relatively more expensive as well, placing a downward pressure on demand. With the debt crisis in Europe and the recent weak economic showing of the US and China, the market has been covering a lot of their short yen positions. Remember that the Japanese yen, due to its low interest rate of 0.10%, is used to fund investments in equities and other higher yielding assets.

Regarding Japan’s GDP, it’s no secret now why the country contracted by 5.0% for the whole of 2009. Consumption was bleak as evidenced in the country’s inflation numbers. Japan’s exports had also been receiving a lot of downward pressure due to the rapid rise of the yen. Now, without those massive spending by the government, the country would have sunk by more. Of course, the government’s huge spending caused its public debt to surge to 192.1% of its GDP in 2009. Despite the already high level of debt, the government was still pushing for a record ¥92.3 trillion budget for the next fiscal year. In my opinion, if the country does not improve its consumption and organically grows, it could be a good candidate for a debt downgrade down the line since it needs to pay off whenever part of their debt comes due.

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Happy fourth of July everyone! I hope you guys enjoyed your weekend. Me and my esteemed colleague had just presented to you the major indices in the US and how each of them portrayed a breakdown. We also showed you a look on one of the emerging markets in Asia, the Philippines, and how it appears to have decoupled from the major economies in the West. So to start the week, let’s take a look on the daily time frame of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index ($SSEC), the 3rd largest stock market in the world by market capitalization at US$3.07 trillion as of May 2010. The SSEC is one of China’s three stock exchanges, alongside the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, that is in operation in China. The former, however, is not yet entirely open to foreign investors due to the tight money flow controls by the Chinese officials.

Looking at its daily chart, you can see that it had broken down from an ascending triangle back in mid-April only to break down again from a smaller descending triangle just last week. In my opinion, the index has still some room to cover south since its minimum downside target, which is computed by projecting the height of the symmetrical triangle from the point of breakout, just above 2,200 has not yet been met. The MACD is showing some bearish sign as well with its histogram recently turning negative. Though with the RSI in already in the extreme level, the index could move sideways for awhile or even rebound a bit before falling again. If it exceeds this target, the next obvious supports would be at 2,000 and at 1,800. With the index now trading below its 200 and 50 MA, it would need a great deal of buying interest to keep itself above water again.

As reported in our latest blogs, the US’s major indices (DJIA, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500) have started to reverse and head south again. The Shanghai index, on the other hand, had already fallen 2 and a half months ahead of the US. How is this possible? Did not China just post a stellar 11.9% GDP growth during the first quarter of 2010? Did not China’s export industry rise by a year-over-year gain of 50% the other month? If so then why would a lot of investors “lose confidence” by selling off Chinese equities in spite of the country’s bullish economic data? Well, it is important to know the economic data such as the country’s GDP, retail sales, etc. are mostly lagging indicators. Those “smart investors” may have already priced these upbeat results back then. The actual stage of the economy, which is yet to be reported in numbers to the public, though, is already exhibited in the index’s price action. The index, as we are told, is a leading indicator of the respective country’s economy. So if this is the case, then we are up for a downside surprise regarding China’s economy. Hmmm. This then might be correct since last week’s financial drought was started by the weak showing of China’s leading indicator which only posted a 0.3% growth after printing a 1.7% rise the other month.

According to recent reports, China is already considering to unpeg its currency, the Yuan, from the US dollar. For a long time, China has pegged the Yuan against the USD, making its exports cheaper as a result. By moving the country’s currency policy to a more market oriented one, China’s exports sector, which saw recently saw a whopping 50% jump, would surely take a hit. And since the country is at present highly dependent on its exports, it economy would likewise hit a bump. Is this scenario already ‘priced in’ by the market? Would the Chinese economy dip some more? Quite possibly.

If so, then the rest of the world instead of being pushed up could be pulled down if China’s economy dips further unless of course a decoupling among the economies in the world occurs. As of now, it seems that the emerging markets in Asia have their own lives but if the condition in China, US, and Europe worsens, expect the emerging markets to get shocked as well. How hard will the impact be? We have yet to see it. In any case, better be on the guard!

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Source: ForexYard

As this week begins, the major question in the market is whether the U.S. dollar will drop further, or can it erase last week’s losses? The dollar weakened on all fronts last week, following a series of negative data from the U.S. economy, including the Non-Farm Payrolls. It now seems that only a positive economic publication will be enough to strengthen the dollar.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Tumbles as U.S. Payrolls Drop More Than Expected

The dollar fell against most of its major counterparts during last week’s trading session, including 200 pips against the euro and 250 pips versus the yen.

The main reason for the dollar’s bearish session was the disappointing data from the U.S. economy. First, the Consumer Confidence survey declined in June more than forecasted, to 52.9 from 62.7 in May. The unfortunate data continued as the Pending Home Sales report showed that the number of contracts to purchase previously owned houses plunged by 30% in May, well below expectations for a 7.4% drop. The dollar’s bearishness was accelerated by Friday as the Non-Farm Payrolls data was released. The U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change report showed that payrolls dropped by 125,000 in June, falling for the first time this year. The combination of the negative data from the housing sector and the employment condition was enough to weaken the greenback. It seems that the bearish trend might prolong until the U.S. economy will show a recovery signal to calm investors.

As for the week ahead, the most significant economic publications from the U.S. seems to be the Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index on Tuesday and the weekly Unemployment Claims on Thursday. If the two indicators will provide further negative results, the Dollar might weaken further. However traders should take under consideration that a positive release has the potential to reverse the Dollar’s downtrend.

EUR – European Interest Rates Announcement Expected On Thursday

The euro saw mixed results against the major currencies during last week’s trading session. While EUR/USD moved up about 200 pips, reaching as high 1.2600, mixed results were recorded against the yen and British pound.

The euro strengthened against the dollar mainly due to negative data from the U.S. economy. The U.S. economy showed recovery slowdown signals as both the housing sector and employment levels have deteriorated during the previous month. However the euro failed to make gains against the other major currencies as the euro-zone’s condition still appears somewhat gloomy. The European M3 Money Supply recorded an annual fall of 0.2% in May, dropping for the fourth time in a row. In addition, the European Consumer Price Index Flash Estimate report showed that inflation rose by 1.4% in June, failing to reach expectations for a 1.5% rise. Considering the high-uncertainty that exists in the market regarding the European nations’ ability to overcome the debt crisis, investors are looking for clear recovery signs before fully investing in the euro.

Looking ahead to this week, traders are advised to follow the Minimum Bid Rate, which is the Euro-Zone’s interest rates announcement for July. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to leave rates at 1.00%, however any rates manipulation has the potential to create massive volatility, and traders should be prepared. Traders are also advised to follow the ECB’s press conference that will follow the rates release. The ECB is likely to discuss its monetary policy, which usually has an instant impact on the market.

JPY – Yen Strengthens As Risk Appetite Decreases

The yen rose against most of the major currencies during last week’s trading session. The yen gained about 250 pips against the dollar, as the USD/JPY pair dropped below the 87.00 level. GBP/JPY fell about 200 pips as well.

The yen strengthened last week as negative data from the U.S. economy has declined risk-appetite in the market and turned investors to look for safer assets. The poor housing data and the negative employment data from the U.S. have led to doubts regarding the state of the economic recovery, causing investors to invest in the Japanese currency. In addition, several positive economic publications from Japan have supported the yen. The most significant data was the Tankan Manufacturing Index, which is a survey of large manufacturers who are asked to rate their general business conditions. The quarterly survey rose for the fifth time in a row, providing positive figure for the first time in 8 months.

As for this week, traders should follow the major publications from the Japanese economy, such as the Core Machinery Orders and the Japanese Current Account, which are expected on Wednesday night. Traders are also advised to follow Japanese equity markets as they tend to have a large impact on the yen.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Drops Below $72.00 a Barrel

Crude oil dropped below $72.00 a barrel for the first time in 4 weeks by Friday. Crude oil saw a sharp drop during last week’s trading session, falling from $78 a barrel to $71.60 by the weekend.

Crude oil’s downfall came as a result of the disappointing data from the U.S. economy. The downfall began as reports showed that Consumer Confidence in the U.S. tumbled in June. Later, negative data was released regarding the current state of the housing and employment sector. Considering the U.S. is the largest consumer of oil in the world, the negative data has created speculation about a drop in demand.

Looking ahead to this week, traders are advised to follow the major publications from the U.S. and the euro-zone, as these tend to have a large affect on oil prices. In addition, traders should follow the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report on Thursday, as its result tends to have an immediate impact on the market.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The Stochastic Slow on the 8-hour chart shows that a bearish cross formed some time ago for this pair, indicating a downward correction is likely to take place. This sentiment is supported by the Relative Strength Index on the 4-hour chart. Traders are advised to go short today.

GBP/USD

Both the Stochastic Slow and the Relative Strength Index on 4-hour chart show the pair trading in overbought territory, which usually indicates a downward correction should occur in the near future. That being said, most other indicators show the pair trading in neutral territory. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach today.

USD/JPY

The Stochastic Slow on the 2-hour chart shows a bullish correction for the pair has formed, indicating an impending upward correction. The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart supports this theory. Going long with tight stops may be the preferred strategy today.

USD/CHF

While the Stochastic Slow on the 4-hour chart shows the pair trading in overbought territory, the Relative Strength Index on the daily chart indicates the opposite. Most other indicators do not show a clear direction for the pair. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach to see where the pair moves later today.

The Wild Card

EUR/DKK

The Relative Strength Index on the 4-hour chart shows the pair trading in overbought territory, indicating a downward correction may take place later today. This theory is supported by the Relative Strength Index on the 8-hour chart. Forex traders are advised to go short with tight stops today.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Market Analysis by Finexo.com

After a string of poor housing, manufacturing and consumer spending data, the U.S ended the week on an even more disappointing note as the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics announced that the world’s largest economy lost more than expected jobs in June. Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll showed an unexpected drop of 125,000, the largest decline since October, as over 225,000 government census workers were laid off.  Typically, a fall in the NFP would indicate a rise in the employment rate; however, this was not the case as the jobless rate fell for the first time this year to 9.5% from 9.7%.  Meanwhile, employment in the private sector rose by 83,000, falling short of the predicted gain of 110,000 but an improvement over the two previous months’ figures.

The Dollar lost all semblance of a “safe haven” currency as the previous market correlation of “increased risk equals a strong dollar” was nowhere to be found. As a result, Forex investors are beginning to doubt that the Federal Reserve will raise the interest rate this year. Moreover, the debt issues that have plagued the both the EU and the UK this year seem set to re-emerge in the US.

EUR/USD
The Euro tumbled down from its highest level in nearly six weeks against the greenback as speculations increased that the European Central Bank will hold the key interest rate at its current record low level of 1%. The single European currency dropped to $1.2543, down 0.2% from $1.2566 on July 2nd, when it touched on a high of $1.2612, the most since May 21.

According to analysts, the ECB will opt to hold interest rates unchanged at this Thursday’s policy meeting as the Euro Zone nations’ attempt to reduce their budget deficits which continue to hamper the economic growth of the region.

GBP/USD
The Sterling’s momentum continued last week as the GBPUSD traded above the 1.500 mark for most of the week. Like the Euro, the Pound has gained from negative US news which has led the decline in positive Dollar sentiments.

With relatively little US data this week, Forex investors will be watching key UK economic news releases. Headlining the week is Thursday’s Bank of England MPC Meeting; however the Manufacturing Production data, which is to be released a few hours earlier, may result in an even bigger movement in the British currency. The manufacturing sector has outperformed forecasts during the UK’s economic recovery; thus, its releases are of great importance to forex investors.

In today’s news the Services PMI, although not as important as the corresponding manufacturing figure, could have an impact on the Sterling. While a better than expected release could maintain the GBP/USD upward trend, a worse than expected figure might put the pair’s recent rise to rest.

Forex Market Review & Analysis by Finexo.com

Disclaimer: Trading the foreign exchange (Forex) carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information and opinions contained on this website are to be used for general informational purposes only and do not consitute investment advice.

By eToro – The equity markets continued to retreat as disappointing US economic news lead the markets lower. The week was capped off with a lackluster non‐farm payroll report, which showed a contraction in jobs, and showed less than expected private section job growth. For the week, the S&P 500 was down nearly 5%.

Click here for the full review

Forex Market Analysis provided by eToro

Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

USDCAD consolidates below 1.0678 resistance. Range trading between 1.0540 and 1.0678 would more likely be seen in a couple of days. Support is at the lower boundary of the rising price channel on 4-hour chart, followed by 1.0540, as long as this level holds, uptrend could be expected to continue and another rise towards 1.0852 (May 25 high) is still possible after consolidation.

Daily Forex Analysis

By Elliott Wave International

The following article is an excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s free report, 20 Questions With Deflationist Robert Prechter. It has been adapted from Prechter’s June 19 appearance on Jim Puplava’s Financial Sense Newshour.

Jim Puplava: I want to come back to government spending, but first I want to move onto the stock market. In your last two Elliott Wave Theorist issues, you laid out a scenario that would put the Dow and S&P, which in your opinion may have peaked on April 26, as the top from here. You feel that this top is the biggest top formation of all time, a multi-century top and we could head straight down in a six-year collapse that would end in 2016 that could see a substantial portion of the S&P and the Dow wiped out in a similar way that we saw between 1929 and 1933. Let’s talk about that and the reasoning behind it.

Editor’s Note: The article you are reading is just one small excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s FREE report, 20 Questions With Deflationist Robert Prechter. The full 20-page report includes even more of Prechter’s insightful analysis on fiat currency, gold, the Fed, the Great Depression, financial bubbles, and government intervention. You’ll learn how to protect your money — and even profit — in today’s environment. Read ALL of Prechter’s candid answers for FREE now. Access the free 20-page report here.

RP: Yes, you’re exactly right. I did a lot of work on technical forms, cycle forms and Elliott wave forms in April and May and put them in a double issue. Let’s talk about the cycles first.

The 7¼-year cycle has been quite regular since the first bottom in 1980. The next bottom was at the crash in October 1987. The next one was November 1994, which is when the economy went through four years with lots of layoffs; it was a recessionary period throughout until that cycle bottomed. The next one was between September 2001, which was the 9/11 attack, and the October 2002 bottom. And the latest one was at the low in March 2009. All those periods are 7¼ years apart, so we are in the uptrend portion of the 7¼-year cycle.

However, notice for example that in 1987, the market went up until August of that year and then bottomed in October, just a couple of months later. So the decline occurred very, very late in the cycle. This time it occurred a little bit earlier in the cycle, topping in ’07 and bottoming in ’09. In the current cycle, prices should peak the earliest of all of them. It’s what we in the cycle prediction business call “left-hand translation.” The market’s already gone up for about a year, and I think that’s just about enough. I think we’re going to spend most of the cycle going down. But the important thing to note is that the next bottom is due in 2016. That means I think we’re going to have a repeat of what happened between 1930—which was the top of the rally following the 1929 crash—and the July 1932 low. Instead of taking two years, it’s going to take about six years.

It’s going to be a very long decline. It’s going to be interrupted by many, many rallies, just as the decline from 1930 to 1932 was. And every time it bottoms and rallies, people are going to say “OK, that’s enough; it’s over.” But it won’t be over. It’s just going to be a long, long process. I think you and I will probably be talking a few times during this period. One of the interesting aspects of this process is that optimism should actually remain dominant through the first three years of the cycle. That will carry us into 2012. Even though prices will be edging lower, most people are going to think it’s a buy, and you shouldn’t get out of your stocks, and recovery is just around the corner, probably for the next three years. And then, for the final half of the cycle, the final three years, that’s when you’ll get the capitulation phase when everyone finally gives up.

Editor’s Note: The article you are reading is just one small excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s FREE report, 20 Questions With Deflationist Robert Prechter. The full 20-page report includes even more of Prechter’s insightful analysis on fiat currency, gold, the Fed, the Great Depression, financial bubbles, and government intervention. You’ll learn how to protect your money — and even profit — in today’s environment. Read ALL of Prechter’s candid answers for FREE now. Access the free 20-page report here.

Here’s a weekend wrap-up of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI). The ^DJI has broken down from the neckline of the head and shoulders formation (indicated by the red circle), following the same fate of the Nasdaq Composite (kindly click here to see it) and the S&P 500 (kindly click here to see it). Its value could now decline to the 9,378.77  support. If that price mark gets breached, the next  support could be the 9,000.00-9,200.00 level. However, in case the Dow Jones Industrial Average heads back up, the neckline of the head and shoulders formation could serve as the immediate resistance. But if the neckline gets cleared out, it could then rise and aim for the 10,627.20 level.

As for Danny’s comparative analysis request, this is just going to be short and straight to the point. In the chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the index has broken down from the head and shoulders formation as seen in the image placed on this post and is more likely to be headed south in the coming days while the Philippine Stock Exchange index hasn’t broken down from anything yet and in fact still maintains an uptrend (kindly click here to see it).  At the same time, I see no reversal setups in the PSEi as of this moment.

Note that the Philippine market as well as most of the other markets in the world follow the movement of the US since the US is the biggest economy in the world. Anything that happens in their economy, due to globalization, affects the rest of the world in one way or the other. Specifically, its trade demand from other countries would weaken if their own consumption weakens as well. Moreover, the so-called “hot money” which streams easily in and out of the world’s financial markets would flow out of the emerging markets like the Philippines since such markets are deemed “riskier” than the US.

Recently, though, there is a slight decoupling between the US market and the Philippines. Still, the PSEi could follow some of the US market drops especially the drastic ones. It could even breakdown from its uptrend but personally, I don’t think it would change its course and entirely follow the footsteps of the US indices right away. From a technical point of view, the PSEi would continue its rise as long as its uptrend is intact. What do you think? Kindly share your thoughts. Thank you!

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