By Fast Brokers – The Aussie got hit hard as the EUR/USD sank below 1.20 in the wake of news that Hungary’s fiscal deficit is actually much larger than reported by the previous government. Additionally, U.S. employment data disappointed analysts due to limited private sector hiring. Aussie investors have already been concerned about the impact on demand for commodities amid a possible slowdown in China, so more weakness in the EU and U.S. only adds to the downward pressure. However, the Aussie does still have May lows in place with key data on the way. We’ve got job advertisements on Monday followed by home loans data on Wednesday. Although Australia’s data has been negatively mixed, should we get some solid data this week this could help keep the Aussie above May lows. If not, then the Aussie’s downtrend may come back into play. Additionally, investors should consider negative headwinds blowing from the EU and now the U.S. The Aussie’s positive correlation with the risk trade is clear and the fate of the Euro could drive the Aussie as well. Lastly, investors should keep an eye out for any news emanating from China regarding the government’s real estate policy. Furthermore, it will be important for the Shanghai Composite to hold 2500. Developments in China have a direct influence on Australia, so the Shanghai Composites downfall is weighing on the Aussie.
Technically speaking, the Aussie still faces multiple downtrend lines along with 5/28 highs. As for the downside, the Aussie has technical cushions in the form of 5/25 lows. Additionally, the psychological .82 and .81 areas could serve as a solid technical cushion should they be tested.
Price: .8219
Resistances: .8266, .8308, .8330, .8344, .8360, .8379, .8396
Supports: .8199, .8181, .8151, .8127, .8087, .8066, .8050
Psychological: .83,.80, May lows and June highs
(click chart to enlarge)
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