Month: May 2010

Source: ForexYard

The EUR receded some of its gains versus the EUR in today’s early European trading after the release of lukewarm economic data released throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair dropped to a low of $1.2470 from a high of $1.2671 earlier in the day and is currently trading around $1.2540.

The EUR saw a sharper decline against the Yen, giving up almost all of its gains from a high of 114.20 to a low of 112.01 after the release of the data. It did recover slightly to currently trade at 113.10. The Yen fell against the EUR and the USD in Asia trading today after Japanese Finance Minister Naoto Kan said excessive strengthening of the Japanese currency isn’t desirable, suggesting that Japan might intervene in the market if the Yen strengthens too much.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Market Analysis by Finexo.com

Upcoming Sessions  (all times GMT)
• German Ifo Business Climate(8:00)
• GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (8:30)
• CAD Core CPI m/m (11:00)
• CAD Core Retail Sales m/m (12:30)

Asian markets continued selling off assets in line with the recent wave of risk aversion. As expected, whatever caused the so called ‘glitch’ in the NYSE on May 6th, 2010, has come back to haunt the markets. Despite recovering from this ‘glitch’, Markets across the board have reneged on their gains over the course of the past few weeks, and ended lower than May 6th, 2010.
Major institutional insiders are speaking of the “correction we’ve been waiting for.” It appears everyone is selling everything, including Gold.

EURUSD
The EUR/USD may have surprised some in the markets, but not seasoned traders who were expecting a bit of kick-back to the extreme selling of the past few weeks. As the world continues to flee towards risk-adverse assets pull, so too are the Europeans who continue to switch their funds back into the Euro, adding to the effects of the recent short covering/ short squeeze rally.
Support/Resistance: 1.2454/1.2738

USDJPY
Japanese importer bids supported the dollar overnight as business related interests continue to dominate the direction of the Japanese exchange rate. The Nikkei has dropped over 5% this week alone. According to financial analysts, if the Yen were to strengthen alongside a losing market, Japanese exporters would get double hit, so accordingly the interest rate is supported.
Support/Resistance: 89.00/92.00
Gold
Gold continued to fall overnight, as the precious metal struggled to hold on to investors as traders drop like flies out of their long positions. In an environments where everyone is selling everything and the real threat to the money supply is deflation due to the recessionary effects of a double dip, Gold no longer represents a safe haven. Accordingly, Gold continues to slide south.
Support/Resistance: 1157/1195

Forex Market Review & Analysis by Finexo.com

Disclaimer: Trading the foreign exchange (Forex) carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information and opinions contained on this website are to be used for general informational purposes only and do not consitute investment advice.

By Yan Petters – The USD/JPY is trading within a range for several months now. The pair has failed to breach through the 95.00 level about 2 weeks ago, and ever since is dropping constantly. At the moment, the pair seems on its way towards the 88.00 level.

• The chart below is the USD/JPY 1-day chat by ForexYard.
• The technical indicators used are the Bollinger Bands, Slow Stochastic, MACD and the Relative Strength Index.
• It can be noted that the pair is still trading below the lower Bollinger Bands, which indicates that the bearish momentum is still on.
• The Slow Stochastic also looks to reverse its course and to drop once again.
• The RSI has dropped sharply lately, and is about to enter the Over-Sold section. This also suggests that the pair is likely to drop further.
• The next support level of the USD/JPY pair is placed at the price of 88.00. If the pair will manage to breach through this level, it has potential to drop towards the 86.00 level.
• If the pair will fail to breach through the 88.00 level, it might bounce back up, and reach the 91.00 level.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

The EUR has reemerged these past couple of trading days. Few analysts were anticipating such a rapid bounce-back in the value of the EUR by this time last week. Now, however, it seems as if this rise has left some feeling uneasy. Upward corrections to such a sustained downward movement are to be expected, analysts have repeatedly stated, but there is still a concern that these sharp swings represent instability, and have a number of investors worried as a result.

Economic News

USD – USD Making Strong Gains against Exotic Currencies

The US Dollar has seen mixed results these past few days. Against its primary rival, the EUR, the greenback has been in a mild downward corrective pattern; falling back down to as low as 1.2645 against the 16-nation single currency. On the other hand, the USD has risen against most of the more exotic currencies by significant leaps and bounds.

Against the Australian Dollar, the buck has risen from a low of 0.9400 just two weeks ago to now trade below 0.8200. A comparative rise can be seen against the New Zealand Dollar, with an increase from 0.7320 to 0.6667. The USD/CAD likewise went from just under parity to now trade 700 pips higher at 1.0698. The flight away from riskier assets appears to be benefiting the USD significantly.

A heavy amount of market uncertainty remains at the moment. The European Monetary Union, in conjunction with the IMF and European Union, has taken steps to strengthen the Euro-Zone. However, this measure has only served to temporarily halt the EUR’s recent downturn. Whether or not it can fix the larger issues remains to be seen.

Today we will be experiencing a flurry of market activity. The Euro-Zone, Switzerland, and Great Britain are all scheduled to release a vast string of data releases which should fill in many of the gaps which traders feel uncertain about at the moment. Today’s data may help clarify the direction of the market for next week. Traders won’t want to miss out on these movements.

EUR – EUR Experiencing Rapid Recovery

The EUR has reemerged these past couple of trading days. Few analysts were anticipating such a rapid bounce-back in the value of the EUR by this time last week. Now, however, it seems as if this rise has left some feeling uneasy. Upward corrections to such a sustained downward movement are to be expected, analysts have stated, but n the other hand, there is a concern that these sharp swings represent instability, and have a number of investors worried as a result.

The EUR made a solid rebound against some of the riskier currencies, such as the CAD, AUD, and NZD. The most significant bounce was no doubt against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD currency pair struck a low mark under 1.2200. The pair now trades over 400 pips higher with a price of 1.2633 as of this morning. The other most noticeable gain was the EUR/AUD which spiked over 1,200 pips in just 2 days and currently trades at 1.5298, up from just under 1.4000.

Europe is expected to publish its series of data releases on manufacturing and services data from across the region. This data should help fill in some of the gaps investors have been concerned about lately. Germany will also be releasing its Germany Ifo Business Climate report at 08:00 GMT. If confidence in Germany is indeed on the rise, as is forecast, we could see the EUR’s rebound sustain itself into the end of this week’s trading.

JPY – JPY Gaining on Risk-Aversion; Strengthening Should Continue

A clear sign that the economy is in severe flight from risk is the massive surge in the value of the Japanese Yen against every currency pair these past few days. Even against the resurgent Euro, the JPY has managed to gain over 1,500 pips by moving from 128.85 to 112.78 in just 2 weeks. The Yen has been strengthening against most currencies for some time now. The latest spike only mirrors the market’s move away from riskier currencies and into safe-havens.

News from Japan will not likely have a significant impact on the value of the Yen. At this point the market is simply pushing its assets into safe-havens such as the USD and JPY and little that Japan can say or do will change this for the time being. Traders should be focusing on the news from Europe considering that the Euro-Zone has been the key player in market sentiment these past few weeks.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Expected to Continue Falling

The price of Spot Crude Oil continues to plummet due to the momentum-gaining strength of the US Dollar. Despite the EUR’s recent progress against most other currencies, the spiking value of the greenback seems to appear as if it’s here to stay, for now. What this means is that commodities are beginning to reflect the loss in value that is inherent in this valuation of the USD.

The finance ministers from OPEC nations have made statements about potential future meetings to discuss production levels to combat the recent trend, but most speculators claim that the oil cartel is in a very weak position to change the price of oil at this point in time. Market forces seem to be favoring safe-haven investments like the USD and JPY, oil will continue to be on the losing side of this equation so long as the greenback is on the winning side.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The pair’s recent rally seems to have been slightly overstretched as the RSI for the pair seems to be floating in the overbought territory on the hourly, 2 hour and 4 hour charts. Furthermore, a breach of the upper Bollinger Band on the 2 hour and 4 hour charts. Going short with tight stops might be advised for today.

GBP/USD

The pair seems to be range trading at the moment, between 1.4350 and 1.4450, with most indicators floating in neutral territory. Waiting on a clearer direction for the pair may be advised for the day.

USD/JPY

An upward correction may be expected for the pair today as the RSI for the pair seems to be floating in the oversold territory on the 2 hour and 4 hour charts. A breach of the lower Bollinger Band is evident on the daily chart. Going long for the day may be advised.

USD/CHF

While most of the pair’s indicators are floating in neutral territory at the moment, a downward correction may be in store for the pair today as the daily RSI for the pair is floating in the overbought territory and a bearish cross is evident on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic. Going short for the day may be advised.

The Wild Card

EUR/NOK

A downward correction may be seen today for the pair, following EUR’s recent extensive rally. A breach of the upper Bollinger Band is evident on the daily and 8 hour charts. The RSI for the pair is floating in the overbought territory on the hourly, 2 hourly, 4 hour and 8 hour charts with a bearish cross evident on the 2 hour, 4 hour and 8 hour charts. Forex traders may be advised to go short for the day.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

EURUSD breaks above 1.0244 resistance, suggesting that a cycle bottom has been formed at 1.2144 level on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 1.2144 and 1.2710 would more likely be seen in next several days. As long as 1.2710 resistance holds, the price action from 1.2144 is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 1.3691 (Apr 12 high), and another fall to 1.2000 is still possible after consolidation, however, above 1.2710 will indicate that the fall 1.3691 has completed at 1.2144 already, then the following uptrend could take price back to 1.3000 area.

Daily Forex Signals

By GCI Forex Research

Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)

€

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2595 level and was supported around the $1.2295 level.  The common currency escalated sharply during the North American session on market rumours the European Central Bank was intervening.  The rumour precipitated an acute move, propelling the common currency higher by more than 150 pips in short order.  There was no official indication as to whether or not the ECB was on the bid but the euro is so oversold that major short-covering can occur anytime rumours like this emerge.  There was also a rumour that the ECB held an emergency meeting to discuss the debt crisis in the eurozone and this also led to short-covering.  Most technicians believe the euro will test key long-term technical support levels around the US$ 1.2020 level and eventually absorb the psychologically-important US$ 1.2000 figure.  The pair also continues to spiral downward in reaction to Germany’s ban on naked short selling this week.  ECB President Trichet today reiterated the central bank’s policies do not represent quantitative easing and said the ECB is “inflexibly attached to price stability, our primary mandate.” Data released in the eurozone today saw EMU-16 May consumer condidence worsen to -18 from -15 and many data will be released tomorrow including PMI surveys and current account numbers.  German data released today saw April producer prices up 0.8% m/m and 0.6% y/y.  In U.S. news, data released today saw weekly initial jobless claims grow to 471,000 from last week’s revised 446,000 level and continuing jobless claims fell to 4.625 million.  Also, April leading indicators were off 0.1% and the May Philadelphia Fed index ticked higher to 21.4.  Fed Governor Tarullo warned the crisis in Europe may slow the global economic recovery and the U.S. economy.  The Fed’s balance sheet reached a record US$ 2.35 trillion on recent mortgage purchases.  A new financial regulatory bill is sailing through the U.S. Senate and the Fed may find its powers broadened.  Outgoing Fed Vice Chairman Kohn called for the U.S. of regulatory tools to prevent asset bubbles.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.2140 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥88.95 level and was capped around the ¥91.85 level.  Traders expanded their long yen positions as global market sentiment crumbled further over European credit woes.  Dealers shook off news that Japan’s economy grew less-than-expected in the first quarter on weak consumption.  GDP expanded an annualized 4.9% and nominal GDP was up 1.2% q/q, the largest climb in a decade.  Finance minister Kan again called on Bank of Japan to support the economy further.  Consumer spending accounted for only about 17% of the quarterly growth rate, the latest indication that final private demand remains moribund.  The domestic demand deflator was off 1.9%, a moderation in price declines and the smallest decline in a year.  BoJ’s Policy Board will announce its interest rate decision overnight and is expected to keep its benchmark overnight call rate target unchanged at 0.10%.  The government will continue to pressure the central bank to do more to counter deflationary pressures. The central bank will likely announce plans to assist lenders in providing credit to certain segments of the Japanese economy.  Data released in Japan overnight saw Q1 housing loans were up 1.0% y/y.  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 1.54% to close at ¥10,030.31.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥96.85 level.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥109.45 level and was capped around the ¥114.10 level.  The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥126.70 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥77.05 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8277 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8275.  Market talk suggests the U.S. and China will deemphasize a revaluation of the yuan when officials meet soon.

£

The British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.4230 level and was capped around the $1.4465 level.  Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Posen reported eurozone problems will reduce the U.K.’s consumer price inflation despite “upside risks to inflation.”  MPC member Tucker warned the sharp monetary easing may lead to exuberance.  Data released in the U.K. today saw April retail sales up 0.3% m/m and 1.8% y/y.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4110 level.  The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the £0.8715 level and was supported around the £0.8560 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.1450 level and was capped around the CHF 1.1575 level.  The May ZEW survey’s expectations index tumbled to 40.5 from the prior reading of 53.4.  Swiss National Bank Vice Chairman Jordan reported the central bank is “decisively” averting an appreciation of the franc, leading to speculation the SNB’s actions prompted today’s massive short covering in the euro.  U.S. dollar bids are cited around the US$ 1.1110 level.  The euro gained ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.4455 level while the British pound lost ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.6380 level.

Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

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DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

By CountingPips.com

The euro has traded higher against the U.S. dollar today in foreign exchange trading as the European common currency reversed its decline from earlier to trade at its highest level in almost a week. The euro-dollar currency pair (EUR/USD) ascended above the 1.2500 exchange rate for the first time since last Friday and after touching a fresh four-year low  this week below the 1.2150 exchange rate. The EUR/USD dropped to an intraday low under 1.3100 in mid-day trading before turning around and rallying through the 200-hour moving average to top out near 1.2600 at 1.2597.

Possible Swiss National Bank intervention may have played a part in the euro’s rise today as there has been speculation that the SNB helped boost the euro versus the Swiss franc. The Euro jumped higher against the franc by over 100 pips in less than five minutes in today’s trading action to touch above the 1.4400 level and make a substantial daily gain versus the franc.

The euro has also made gains today in fx trading versus the British pound, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar while declining against the Japanese yen.

EUR/USD 30-Minute Chart – The Euro started the day off lower against the US dollar in the forex markets but found support and rallied to trade above the 1.2500 exchange rate later in the day. The EUR/USD has gained ground for a second consecutive day and touched an intraday high at 1.2597. The pair has pulled back from the highs and currently trades near the 1.2500 level.

By Fast Brokers – Gold is continuing its retracement from $1200/oz even as the risk trade weakens again.  We’re still accounting present weakness in gold to profit taking and should uncertainty take hold of the EU again we wouldn’t be surprised to see the precious metal shoot back above $1200/oz.  Regardless, gold is beginning to test some stronger near-term technical supports and it will be interesting to see how the precious metal behaves over the next 24 hours.  Meanwhile, investors will be assessing weekly U.S. unemployment claims and the Philly index as well as monitoring conditions in the EU.  The show of unity has dissipated in the EU since the announcement of its $1 trillion rescue package, putting investors on edge as they wait for the next hat to drop.  Governmental leaders are trying to sell the rescue package to their constituents, but with little success at this point.  The EU and UK will each release key data tomorrow, meaning the trading week could end on a volatile note.

Technically speaking, gold faces technical barriers in the form of intraday and 5/7 highs.  As for the downside, gold still has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with 5/6 and 5/5 lows.

Present Price: $1184.62/ oz
Resistances: $1187.10/oz, $1191.33/oz, $1195.20/oz, $1199.30/oz, $1202.59/oz
Supports: $1183.52/oz, $1178.97/oz, $1174.76/oz, $1171.60/oz, $1168.80/oz
Psychological:  $1200/oz

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The Aussie is barreling lower today as the currency pair continues to be an underperformer among the major dollar pairs.  The driving forces remain the same.  The RBA’s rate hike regime seems to be coming to an end, deflating the relative strength build up in the Aussie built up over the past 10 months.  Hence, the currency pair finds itself more exposed to fiscal issues in the EU as well as debt concerns in the UK and EU.  Secondly, the Shanghai Composite is continuing its own freefall with the index headed towards 2500.  As we’ve explained repeatedly, weakness in China equates to weakness in Australia since China’s demand for Australia’s resources as been fueling RBA rate hikes and consequently Aussie gains.  Meanwhile, the CAC and DAX are both down around -2% right now as uncertainty in the EU weighs on equities around the globe.  Australia will be absent from tomorrow’s data wire, leaving the Aussie up to present momentum and any new developments in the EU over the next 24-48 hours.

Technically speaking, the Aussie faces technical barriers in the form of intraday highs and the psychological .85 level. As for the downside, the Aussie has technical cushions in the form of intraday and September 2009 lows.

Price: .8251
Resistances:  .8272, .8291, .8314, .8329, .8341, .8363, .8384
Supports:  .8251, .8224, .8195, .8172, .8154, .8138
Psychological:  .85, .84, .83, July and August 2009 lows

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The USD/JPY is back below its psychological 91 level as the risk trade flounders with the Cable and Aussie each heading South.  Investors are snapping up the Yen as apparent risk aversion takes hold of the markets once again.  The DAX is down nearly -2% as German’s voice their concern and discontent over what is taking shape in the EU.  However, the USD/JPY still does have its highly psychological 90 level waiting below and we’ll have to see how the U.S. trading session pans out.  Investors are currently waiting on weekly U.S. unemployment claims and the Philly index.  Japan’s prelim GDP came in at 1.2%, two basis points shy of analyst expectations.  Hence, investors have been hesitant to prop up the USD/JPY.  Additionally, the GDP price index printed a basis point below analyst expectations, giving Kan ample reason to reason to weigh on the BoJ to keep liquidity loose, a USD/JPY positive.  Attention remains focused on the EU and investors should keep an eye on the news wire for any developments since the situation is far from stable at this point.  Japan will make its monetary policy decision tomorrow and it will be interesting to see what the central bank has to say about its recent $22 billion liquidity injection.

Technically speaking, the USD/JPY faces technical barriers in the form of multiple downtrend lines along with intraday highs and the psychological 92 level.  As for the downside, the USD/JPY has technical supports in the form of intraday and 5/7 lows.  Furthermore, the psychological .90 level should serve as a solid technical cushion if it’s reached.

Present Price: 90.87
Resistances: 91.14, 91.23, 91.37, 91.55., 91.66, 91.85
Supports:  90.88, 90.77, 90.64, 90.55, 90.42, 90.27
Psychological:  .92, .91, .90

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.