Forex: Speculators decrease bets on US Dollar vs Euro, Franc

By CountingPips.com

The latest COT data out on Friday showed that futures speculators decreased their long bets for the U.S. dollar against the euro from last week’s record high as of May 18th, according to the Commitments of Traders (COT) data released by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Non-commercial futures positions, those taken by hedge funds and large speculators, were net short the euro against the U.S. dollar by -107,143 contracts after being net short the euro by a record high of -113,890 contracts the week before. The net short euro positions had increased for four consecutive weeks and coincided with the euro’s sharp decline against the dollar that brought the EUR/USD to a 4-year low against the dollar before a pullback this week.

The COT report is published every Friday by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity. Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, where as a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are expecting that currency to fall against the dollar and net longs expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

Other major currencies net short in the CME futures market against the dollar this week were the British pound, Japanese yen and Swiss franc while the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Mexican peso and New Zealand dollar all had a net long amount of contracts.

The British Pound Sterling net shorts increased to -76,745 after a total of -72,188 last week. The Swiss franc net short positions decreased to -14,558  contracts after -17,527 net shorts last week while the Japanese yen short positions fell to -34,289 as of May 18th after registering -34,669 net contracts on May 11th.

The Australian dollar futures positions were net long by 38,380 contracts as of May 18th, a decrease in long positions after last week totaling net long 49,198 contracts. Canadian dollar long positions were net by 44,885 contracts after 50,454 net longs last week and the New Zealand dollar net longs were 12,553 this week after last week being 16,892 net long contracts. The Mexican peso long contracts fell for the week from 41,958 long contracts last week to 35,702 longs this week.

COT Data Summary (vs. the US Dollar)

Euro net shorts at -107,143 contracts
British Pound net shorts increase to -76,745
Swiss Franc net shorts decrease to -14,558
Canadian Dollar net longs decrease to 44,885
Australian Dollar net longs decrease to 38,380
New Zealand Dollar net longs decrease to 12,553
Mexican Peso net longs decrease to 35,702
Japanese Yen net shorts decrease to -34,289

Go to the Commitment of Traders CME futures data