Forex: Speculators raise bets on US Dollar vs Euro, Pound

By CountingPips.com

The latest COT data out on Friday showed that futures speculators have increased their long bets for the U.S. dollar against the euro to a new record high as of May 11th, according to the Commitments of Traders (COT) data released by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Non-commercial futures positions, those taken by hedge funds and large speculators, were net short the euro against the U.S. dollar by a new record high of -113,890 contracts after being net short the euro by -103,402 contracts the week before. The net short euro positions have increased for four consecutive weeks after a pullback on April 10th and have coincided with the euro’s sharp decline against the dollar that has brought the EUR/USD to a 18-month low under the 1.2400 level.

The COT report is published every Friday by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity. Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, where as a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are expecting that currency to fall against the dollar and net longs expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

Other major currencies net short in the CME futures market against the dollar this week were the British pound, Japanese yen and Swiss franc while the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Mexican peso and New Zealand dollar all had a net long amount of contracts. The British Pound Sterling net shorts increased to -72,188 after a total of -65,616 last week. The Swiss franc net short positions registered -17,527 contracts after -16,592 net shorts last week. The Japanese yen, despite having a net short position, saw short positions decline from -65,612 contracts last week to -34,669 net contracts on May 11th.

The Australian dollar futures positions were net long by 56,982 contracts as of May 11th, a decrease in long positions after last week totaling net long 49,198 contracts. Canadian dollar long positions were net by 50,454 contracts after 52,012 net longs last week and the New Zealand dollar net longs were 16,892 this week after last week being 14,976 net long contracts. The Mexican peso long contracts fell in half for the week from 83,043 long contracts last week to 41,958 longs this week.

COT Data Summary (vs. the US Dollar)

Euro record net shorts at -113,890 contracts
British Pound net shorts increase to -72,188
Swiss Franc net shorts increase to -17,527
Canadian Dollar net longs decrease to 50,454
Australian Dollar net longs decrease to 49,198
New Zealand Dollar net longs increase to 16,892
Mexican Peso net longs decrease to 41,958
Japanese Yen net shorts increase to -34,669

Go to the Commitment of Traders CME futures data