Month: April 2010

By Adam Hewison – We owe trillions of dollars, but Crude oil is at $86 a barrel, the DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ are making new highs almost everyday and unemployment is officially at 9.7%.

Everything is great! Happy days are here again… Right?

So is the DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ all going to keep going higher forever? Or are the teachings of a dead mathematician going to reverse this juggernaut of a market?

In my new video I show you exactly what I mean and how the these indices could be very close to a very important tipping point.

This is without a doubt, one of the most important videos I have ever made and if you are concerned about your financial future, you don’t want to miss it.

As always, our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements.

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All the best,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

Forex Market Ideas by Finexo.com

Past Events:
• USD Unemployment Claims out at 484K, versus expected 439K, prior 460K
• USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 47.1B, versus expected 34.2B, prior 15.0B (revised)
• USD  Empire State Manufacturing Index out at 31.9 versus expected24.0, prior 22.9
• USD  Philly Fed Manufacturing Index out at 20.2 versus expected 19.8, prior 18.9
• USD  Capacity Utilization Rate out at 73.2%, versus expected 73.3%, prior 73.0% (revised)
• USD  Industrial Production m/m out at 0.1%, versus expected 0.6%, prior 0.3% (revised)

Upcoming Events:
• CHF PPI m/m (0815GMT)
• EUR CPI y/y (1000GMT)
• EUR Core CPI y/y (1000GMT)
• CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m (1330GMT)
• USD Building Permits (1330GMT)
• USD Housing Starts (1330GMT)
• USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1455GMT)

Market Commentary
The Euro snapped five days of gains against the greenback as concerns begin to grow that the European Union’s latest rescue plan for Greece- a €45billion bailout package – won’t be enough to restore the single currencies value. The European Union’s single currency fell sharply against all but 2 of its 16 most traded currency counterparts, as the extra yield investors demand to hold Greek 10-year bonds instead of benchmark German bunds rose above 400 basis points for the first time since Greece’s bailout package was announced last Sunday. The EUR/USD hit a fresh weekly low of $1.3515.

The yield on Greece’s 10-year notes advanced 0.02 percentage point to 7.09% on concern Greece’s won’t get the fund it needs to fund a deficit that is 12.9% of gross domestic product, the biggest in the Euro’s history. The Parliaments of Germany, France and Ireland must first vote on whether to contribute their share of the EU loans.

This morning (1000GMT), Eurostate will release the annual Consumer Price Index for the entire continent. The market expects that the annual adjusted inflation will continue to increase at 1.5%, and that core CPI is expected to be revised from 0.8% to 0.9% – however, only a substantially rise in this figure will push the ECB to contemplate a rate hike.
The British Pound rose 0.6% to 87.77 pence against the euro after a survey showed the Conservative Party has extended its lead over the reigning Labour Party, easing concerns that next month’s election won’t produce a clear winner. The Sterling appreciated for a second day in a row against the single European currency after Britain’s Daily Telegraph published a poll showing that the Conservative party was in the lead with 43% support rate, compared to the Labour party’s 31% support. This poll signals that the U.K turbulent political situation is beginning to stabilize, which, according to analysts, is particular good news for the country’s currency which has recently suffered on concerns that U.K will not have a majority government following the next election. While early in the day during the European trading session, the pound dipped as low as $1.53840. However, the British currency managed recover during the U.S trading session, to reach a high of $1.5509. The GBP/USD closed the day at $1.55002.

Across the Atlantic, the number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly increased last week, indicating the improvement in the labor market will take time to unfold. Labor Department figures showed yesterday that Initial jobless applications rose by 24,000 in the week ended April 10; however a Labor Department spokesman said the rise in claims was due more to administrative factors reflecting volatility around Easter than economic reasons. None the less, the number of jobless names passed the market predicted vale of 439K, to reach 484K – the highest level since February 20th. Reluctances among some companies to hire is among one of the biggest challenges facing the economy as it recovers from what is considered the worst recession since the Great Depression. Employment gains are needed to help stimulate consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the economy. This disappointing figure comes one day after Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told congress that high unemployment and weak construction are among the “significant restraints” on the pace of growth. However despite a worse than expected result, the U.S Dollar was up against the euro following the release of the joblessness claims, with the EUR/USD shedding 0.82% to reach 1.3441.
Manufacturing production in the U.S. accelerated in March as factories spearheaded the recovery from the recession. Output at factories rose 0.9% after a 0.2% gain in February that was revised from a previously estimated decline, Federal Reserve figures showed yesterday. Warmer weather caused utility use to drop by the most in four years, limiting the overall gain in industrial production to 0.1%, less than anticipated. Manufacturing activity in the New York region improved at its fastest pace since May 2004 this April, as the Empire State Manufacturing Index soared to 31.9 from 22.9 in March.  According to the New York Federal Reserve Bank, new orders and shipment indexes increased and the inventory index rose to a record high. Moreover, the index for the number of employees rose to its highest level in more than two years and the price index increased to its highest level since late 2008. The index is close to its recent high of 33.4 hit in October. Business conditions improved for the eighth straight month at manufacturing firms in the Philadelphia region, according to the monthly survey issued Thursday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The Philly Fed index rose to 20.2 in April from 18.9 in March, slightly better than expectations of an increase to 20.0. Any reading over zero in the diffusion index indicates growth, with higher readings indicating more firms reporting better conditions

The U.S Dollar moved little against the majority of its currency counterparts following the mixed results a worse than expected jobless claims but better than expected manufacturing results. The EUR/USD closed the day at 1.35757, down 0.58% from the day’s open; while the USD/JPY closed at 93.318, up 0.31% from the day’s opening price.

This afternoon, the U.S Census Bureau will release the number of Building Permits issued during March. While last month the number of building permits issued increased to 0.64M, this time around, the market predicts that they will slip back down to 0.63M. The complementary figure, Housing Starts, is expected to increase slightly to 0.60M, from last month 0.58M. Also out this afternoon, the University of Michigan’s Prelim Consumer Sentiment. After a few stable months, this survey of about 500 consumers is expected to increase to 74.7 points, the highest level since January 2008.

Forex Market Ideas & Analysis by Finexo.com

Disclaimer: Trading the foreign exchange (Forex) carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information and opinions contained on this website are to be used for general informational purposes only and do not consitute investment advice.

By Russell Glaser – The euro dropped and the yen strengthened as Greece inches closer towards receiving financial aid from both the EU and the IMF.

Mixed economic data failed to provide direction in the markets. Today could be different with two major U.S. data releases set.

• U.S. Building Permits – 12:30 GMT
Expected Output: 0.63M
Previous Output: 0.64M

• Preliminary UofM Consumer Sentiment – 13:55 GMT
Expected Output: 74.7
Previous Output: 73.6

EUR/USD – A breach of the 1.3490 support level could drop the pair to 1.3400.

USD/JPY – The pair finds support at 92.40. A breach could send the pair to 91.05.

Source: Forex Yard

The euro dropped across the board as Greek sovereign-debt concerns sparked a sell off in the 16-nation currency. However, the currency limited its losses after it was announced that Greek leaders have met with IMF officials as a bailout of the nation looks more likely everyday.

Economic News

USD – Mixed Data Provides Little Direction

The dollar varied in performance against the major currencies after a news heavy day of trading. Significant data releases from the States were mixed and this did not allow for a particular direction to take shape in dollar trading. Initial job claims of 484K were worse than the 439K forecasted by market economists. Also failing to meet expectations were industrial production numbers which posted a 0.1% increase on expectations of 0.6%. U.S. data that exceeded forecasts were the TICS which posted 47.1B after forecasts of only 34.2B. Also the Empire State manufacturing report was stronger than expected on 31.9 on forecasts of only 24.0.

The data helped the dollar strengthen against the euro and the pound, but the greenback fell against the yen. Contrasting data releases did not allow for one particular direction for the dollar during trading.

Today the market is anticipating the release of U.S. building permits and the preliminary UofM consumer confidence survey. The data is expected to have a positive impact on risk appetite in the market and could send the EUR/USD lower. The pair is supported by the 1.3525 price level. A breach of this price could send the pair to the 1.3400 support line.

EUR – Greece Goes to the IMF

The euro fell sharply in yesterday’s trading but recovered slightly following an announcement that Greek finance officials met with the International Monetary Fund on Monday. This brings the EU member nation one step closer towards receiving bailout funds. The financing may be needed as Greece is expected to raise only $4B in the private debt markets. The Greek finance ministry had hoped to raise up to $10B in dollar denominated bonds.

Greek worries are continuing to pressure the euro as the EUR/USD fell to a low of 1.3520, from an opening day price of 1.3649. The pair closed at 1.3554. The EUR/JPY was also lower at 125.69 after opening the day at 127.49.

The euro could remain under pressure until funds are released to aid Greece. Worries also persist as other EU member nations struggle to get their finances in order. The nations of Portugal, Spain and Italy are of the highest concerns. We may expect the EUR/USD to continue to fall with a key support level at 1.3385.

JPY – Yen Continues to Strengthen

The Japanese yen strengthened across the board yesterday as mixed U.S. data and fundamental weakness in the European Union continues to boost the Asian currency. Following both negative U.S. unemployment data but positive Philly Fed Manufacturing numbers, the yen outperformed most currencies in yesterday’s trading.

The USD/JPY fell to 92.67 after opening the day at 93.40. The EUR/JPY also dropped to 125.59 from 127.49, while the GBP/JPY traded lower at 1.4345 after beginning the day at 1.4485.

A lack of economic data today for Japan will leave the yen’s movements influenced by U.S. economic data releases. The major news that traders should be following is the U.S. building permits and the UofM Consumer Confidence Survey. Positive results could allow the JPY to continue to strengthen through today’s trading. The next major support level for the USD/JPY rests at 92.15.

OIL – Unemployment Numbers Sink Spot Crude Oil

Spot crude oil prices dropped following worse than expected U.S. new unemployment claims. Prices rose prior to the negative unemployment numbers after Chinese GDP data was stronger than expected. This followed a volatile trading day after U.S. crude oil inventories showed crude oil stocks declined.

Concerns still persist as the economic picture has not improved as fast as many traders would like. A surplus of supply still exists and many oil refineries continue to operate below capacity. Further fundamental numbers will be needed to give traders a reason to bid spot crude oil prices higher. Until then, spot crude oil may find support at $86.30.

Technical News

EUR/USD

This pair has witnessed a sustained upward movement for many days now. This movement has pushed the price of this pair into the over-bought territory on the RSI of the 4-hour chart, signaling that there may be a medium-term downward correction. However, the longer-term trends still appear to be pointing up. Going long appears to continue being the solid choice today.

GBP/USD

There appears to be a fresh bullish cross on the Slow Stochastic of the hourly chart, signaling an upward correction may be experienced soon. The price appears to be floating in the over-sold territory on the RSI of the hourly and 4-hour charts as well, which supports the above notion. Going long with tight stops might be a decent strategy today

USD/JPY

Even though a sustained downward movement like the one this pair has seen typically pushes the price into levels which indicate a correction that does not seem to be the case here. Most oscillators for this pair are signaling neutrality. The price does however, appear to be in the over-sold territory on the 4-hour chart’s RSI, which may indicate an impending upward correction. Going long with tight stops might be wise today.

USD/CHF

This pair’s strong bullish behavior has resulted in most oscillators indicating that a correction is imminent. While this has been the case for the past two days, it remains to be so. The RSI on the hourly, 4-hour and daily charts all show this pair floating in the over-bought territory, and there are bearish crosses forming on the 4-hour and daily charts’ Slow Stochastic. Waiting for the downwards breach and then entering the correction may be wise today.

The Wild Card

Gold

The strong bullish movement in the price of Gold recently has pushed the price of this pair into the over-bought territory on the RSI of the hourly, 4-hour, and daily charts, signaling strong downward pressure. There also appears to be a fresh bearish cross on the Slow Stochastic of the hourly and 4-hour charts, which supports this notion. Considering the potential downward correction, forex traders may have a fantastic opportunity to join this trend reversal at a very early stage and with a great entry price.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By Adam Hewison – The bull market inched higher during Sunday night trading, subsequently pushing gold to its best levels since December of last year. The sudden move down on Monday was a reminder that the 1160 area is an area of resistance for this precious metal.

In this new video on gold, I’ll show you some of the indicators that you may want to look at in this market.

As always, our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements, but we invite you to please share your thoughts on gold on our Traders Blog:

Watch the Gold Video Here…

All the best,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

By CountingPips.com

The U.S. dollar has been mostly stronger in forex trading against the other major currencies as there has been a pullback in risk appetite today. The dollar has advanced today versus the euro, British pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar while falling against the Japanese yen, according to currency data by Oanda today.

The dollar had fallen for the past two days against the euro, pound, aussie, loonie and franc before today’s turnaround. The euro had risen versus the dollar to the 1.3692 exchange rate on Monday and to the 1.3678 exchange rate yesterday as concerns on the Greece bailout had faded after more detailed promises of European and IMF aid were put forth over the weekend. Today in Europe, there has been reports about confusion on how the bailout money will be dispersed and whether countries may need legislation to loan out the money.

In U.S. news today, weekly jobless claims rose more than expected in the week ending April 10th. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, initial jobless claims grew by 24,000 workers to a total of 484,000 workers from the week before and surpassed forecasts expecting a decline of approximately 20,000 workers.  The 4-week moving average of unemployed workers declined by 7,500 from the prior week to a total of 457,750 while continuing claims rose for the week ending April 3rd by 73,000 workers.

U.S. manufacturing has continued to increase its pace of activity as the Philadelphia Fed Index rose for a third straight month and the Empire State manufacturing survey increased more than expected for April, according to reports released by the Federal Reserves of Philadelphia and New York, respectively.

The U.S. stock markets finished up moderately today with the Dow Jones rising by approximately 21 points, the Nasdaq increasing over 10 points and the S&P 500 up by 1 point.  Oil edged lower to $85.47 while gold has gained by $0.70 to trade at the $1,159.70 per ounce level.

Tomorrow’s data releases to look out for are Canada’s manufacturing sales data, US housing starts & building permits and the University of Michigan Confidence survey.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Chart – The Euro breaking below its short-term supportive trendline versus the U.S. Dollar today in forex trading. The EUR/USD had gained for two straight days and was using the 50-hour moving average as support before turning south today, falling into oversold territory on the RSI and turning negative on the MACD. The pair found support today at the 1.3520 area and at the 38.2 fibonacci retracement level(from the March 26th low at 1.3267 to April 12th high 1.3691) and looks poised to test the 1.3600 level.

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By Editorial Staff

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By Fast Brokers – The Aussie is consolidating following yesterday’s solid upswing in the wake of positive U.S. Retail Sales data.  Surprisingly, the Aussie has shown a muted reaction to solid Chinese GDP and Industrial Production growth.  China’s economic recovery is moving full steam ahead, which is normally a positive for the Aussie due to raised expectations for commodity demand.  Perhaps such strong growth in China is worrying investors that the government will either have to appreciate or tighten soon to cool growth, a negative for the Aussie.  Either way, the Aussie is still locked into its impressive uptrend.  Meanwhile, inflation expectations are on the rise in Australia, signaling the RBA may have leverage to raise rates again next month despite slowdowns in several fundamental data points.  Should the RBA remain on the offensive, this would likely keep the Aussie on its upward trajectory unless the central bank was to state that it is finished with its tightening.  The data wire will be relatively quiet tomorrow until the U.S. session with Building Permits and Prelim Consumer Sentiment on the way.  Positive U.S. economic data could benefit the Aussie and the risk trade as a whole.  Additionally, investors should also keep an eye out for upcoming earnings reports before and after the bell for positive U.S. earnings may also benefit the Aussie.

Technically speaking, the Aussie faces technical barriers in the form of previous April highs.  As for the downside, the Aussie has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with intraday, 4/12, and 4/6 lows.  Additionally, the psychological .93 level could continue to serve as technical cushion over the near-term.

Price: .9330
Resistances: .9342, .9359, .9373, .9391, .9403, .9410, .9432
Supports: .9327, .9315, .9300, .9289, .9272, .9257
Psychological: .93, .92, November 2009 highs, April highs and lows

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – Gold is continuing its consolidation just above its highly psychological $1150/oz level as investors digest today’s economic data from China and the U.S.  Even though China’s GDP and Industrial Production data was solid, the numbers have had a negligible impact on the Dollar.  Meanwhile mixed U.S. data has kept the greenback somewhat range bound so far as well.  However, investors should take note that the persistence of high unemployment data should keep the Fed at bay as it pursues a continuation of its loose monetary policy.  The Fed’s loose stance is a medium-term positive for the risk trade and gold as well considering the precious metal’s negative correlation with the Dollar.  The data wire will be relatively quiet tomorrow until U.S. Building Permits and Prelim Michigan figures, meaning gold and the Dollar could stay locked within their current patterns barring any unforeseen psychological developments.

Technically speaking, gold faces topside technical barriers in the form of intraday, 4/14, 4/12, and 12/08 highs.  Additionally, the $1170/oz area could serve as a technical barrier should it be tested.  As for the downside, gold has fresh uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with intraday, 4/13, 4/8,and 4/7 lows.  Additionally, the psychological $1150/oz area could continue to serve as solid support over the near-term

Present Price: $1155.40/ oz
Resistances: $1156.63/oz, $1158.47/oz, $1160.01/oz, $1161.83/oz, $1163.38/oz, $1164.65/oz
Supports: $1154.97/oz, $1153.82/oz, $1152.70/oz, $1151.29/oz, $1149.72/oz, $1147.73oz
Psychological: $1170/oz, $1160/oz, $1150/oz, 2010 highs and April lows

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The USD/JPY is back to one of its all too familiar consolidative patterns, hovering around its psychological 93 level despite key data releases from China and the U.S.  China’s GDP and Industrial Production printed in line with expectations, a positive sign for Japan’s largest trading partner.  Additionally, prices came in lower than anticipated, implying China may keep its monetary policy loose for a bit longer than anticipated, also a positive for Japan’s economy.  Speaking of which, the BoJ’s Shirakawa reiterated the central bank’s analysis that Japan’s economic recovery is solidifying and a double dip seems highly unlikely.  However, it remains to be see how much of an impact a Yuan appreciation would have on the Yen should China move forward with a more flexible currency regime.  Regardless, the USD/JPY is back to its calm ways in anticipation of another jolt in activity.  This may not come before week’s end since the data wire is relatively empty tomorrow until the U.S. releases Building Permits and Prelim Consumer Sentiment figures.  Even then, these data points could have a limited impact on the FX markets unless they register a large deviation from estimates.

Technically speaking, the USD/JPY faces technical barriers in the form of intraday, 4/7, and 4/2 highs.  As for the downside, the USD/JPY has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with 4/13, 3/30, and 3/25 lows.  Additionally, the psychological 93 level could continue to serve as a psychological cushion for the near-term.

Present Price: 93.29
Resistances: 93.37, 93.47, 93.57, 93.71, 93.86, 94.04
Supports: 93.14, 93.04, 92.84, 92.70, 92.59, 92.40
Psychological: .94, .93, 2010 highs

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.