Month: March 2010

The EUR/USD is drifting lower today after the currency pair was unable to break through previous March highs during yesterday’s run higher.  The data wire has been relatively quiet the last couple trading sessions, yet investors are opting to retreat from the risk trade regardless.  Both Moody’s and Fitch cautioned that the UK’s financials are still not in a healthy position, likely yielding today’s downturn in the risk trade.  German Industrial Production printed 5 basis points below analyst expectations, though the result isn’t too bad to get worked up over.  Meanwhile, Sarkozy issued a statement defending Greece and implied that the EU will find means of supporting the country if deemed necessary.  However, Sarkozy’s vote of confidence hasn’t yielded the kind of impact one may expect on the EUR/USD even if the Euro is outperforming the Pound.   The story now becomes whether the EUR/USD can continue to hold above March and February lows despite current selling pressure.  The data wire will begin to heat back up during tomorrow’s Asia trading session with China’s New Loans and Trade Balance due.  Additionally, the EU will print France’s Industrial Production data.  China will likely dominate the headlines and continued strong performance could give the risk trade a jolt to the topside.  Meanwhile, the EUR/USD’s focus remains monthly lows and its psychological 1.35 level.

Technically speaking, the EUR/USD faces multiple downtrend lines along with 3/8 and 3/3 highs.  As for the downside, the EUR/USD has several uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with 3/5 and 3/2 lows.  Meanwhile, the psychological 1.35 area could continue to have an impact on price movements.

Present Price: 1.3554

Resistances: 1.3557, 1.3574, 1.3589, 1.3606, 1.3619, 1.3654

Supports:  1.3542, 1.3528, 1.3511, 1.3494, 1.3460, 1.3436

Psychological: March and February Lows, 1.35

(click to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

Spot crude oil prices plunged yesterday and continued their fall into the opening of the early morning hours of the U.S. trading session. Driving the price of the commodity lower was a stronger dollar and traders booking profits from a previous surge in the price of spot crude oil.

As the New York market opened, spot crude oil was trading lower at $80.42, from yesterday’s closing price of $81.43

Some traders have been taking profits this morning from the last bullish run that has commenced since the beginning of February. A possible trigger to the selling was the price of crude oil breaking below a significant trend line on the 4-hour chart.

A lack of news may leave spot crude oil trading influenced more by movements of the dollar and equity markets. Spot crude oil prices typically fall when the dollar appreciates. The dollar has currently pushed to a new low for the month, with the EUR/USD trading lower at 1.3350.

The next fundamental data piece that could swing the price of spot crude oil to a different direction is the weekly crude oil inventories from the Energy Information Administration.

A lack of fundamental factors supporting a rising price of spot crude oil could stall the $12 price rally the commodity has experienced since February 5th. Any further rally may need more than the technical support that the charts are giving, but also fundamental support to show a rise in consumption or potential future demand. Until then the upper resistance line of $84 should contain any price rally.

By Adam Hewison – The move down in gold yesterday surprised many traders and flashed an exit signal based on MarketClub’s daily “Trade Triangle” technology. As we have mentioned before, we felt that gold was in a broad trading range and were not optimistic that it would shoot higher.

The action yesterday confirms that we have more of a two-way market. I expect we’ll see further selling on any rallies from this level.

In today’s video, I share with you some thoughts I have on gold based on one important element: how gold energy fields propel this market.

Watch the New Video Now….

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

P.S. – Take advantage now of Adam’s Free 10-part Professional Email Trading Course or check out the free New Videos on TrendTV.

By Ashley Smith – The USD/ZAR pair has been in a downward trend throughout the past week, dropping from 7.8187 to as low as 7.3670. Yesterday, however, saw the beginning of an upward correction, a trend that is expected to continue.

Below is the 8 hour chart for the pair.

1. The Slow Stochastic chart is exhibiting a fresh bullish cross, signaling that an upward movement is expected.

2. The RSI of the pair is currently floating in the oversold territory, suggesting upward pressure.

3. The MACD is exhibiting an impending bullish cross, signaling a possible imminent upward movement.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

Some of the latest price movements in the EUR have reflected a growing sense of optimism in the Euro-Zone, given the mild easing of debt concerns in Greece. Switzerland also appears to be having a positive effect on the region with a recent report which showed retail sales climbing much higher than forecast last month. Investor confidence in the region also appears to have risen slightly better than was anticipated. Whether Europe can sustain this bullish momentum is yet to be seen, but so far the regional currencies appear to be holding their gains.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Trading Lower as Investors Regain Confidence in Euro

Following last Friday’s less-than-inspiring Non-Farm Payrolls data, the US Dollar has entered what appears to be a diverse array of price movements. Against the EUR and CHF, the greenback has entered a range-trading pattern with distinct highs and lows. The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.3615, down from yesterday’s 1.3680. Against the Yen, the Dollar has started coming back down from last week’s jump. After reaching upwards of 90.60, the pair now trades just above the 90.00 price level.

The USD has taken a downturn lately, following Friday’s modest rise. The easing of debt concerns in Greece has a number of forex market participants buying back into the Euro. Whether Europe can sustain this bullish momentum is yet to be seen, but so far the regional currencies appear to be holding their gains.

Since today’s economic calendar will be void of any news from the United States, the chances of any major market corrections today are slim. However, if we were to correlate the potential movement of Crude Oil with the price of the EUR/USD, there is a chance that we could see some Dollar strengthening as the technical indicators are showing a potential downward move in Crude Oil later today.

EUR – EUR Improving, but Momentum may be Lost with Light News Week

The EUR appears to have leveled off against the majority of its currency rivals. Moderate downturns were experienced against the CAD and AUD, however, with price dips of 60 and 40 pips, respectively. Versus its primary counterpart, the US Dollar, the EUR was trading bearish overall on the day near the price level of 1.3615, down from 1.3700 seen earlier in the trading day. The EUR/USD pair, moreover, appears to be range trading between 1.3450 and 1.3730.

Some of the latest price movements in the EUR have reflected a growing sense of optimism in the Euro-Zone, given the mild easing of debt concerns in Greece. Switzerland also appears to be having a positive effect on the region with a recent report which showed retail sales climbing much higher than forecast last month. Investor confidence in the region also appears to have risen slightly better than was anticipated.

Overall, if the 16-nation Euro-Zone economy continues to provide data which supports the notion of improving economic sentiment, there is a strong chance the EUR will see increasingly strong signals of reversing last month’s losses. However, since we are expecting a light news day, the chances of this happening today are slim. Additionally, this entire week appears to be light on European market news and as such could mean that the EUR will not be in the driver’s seat of its price movements until next week.

JPY – JPY Paring Friday’s Losses

After experiencing a sharp decline against all of its major counterparts on Friday, the JPY now appears to be regaining strength in today’s early trading hours. So far the Yen has climbed 185 pips against the British Pound and is currently trading at the 135.15 price mark. Against the USD the JPY currently sits just above the 90.00 price level but appears to be facing a significant support line at that price.

With a number of machinery and industrial figures being published by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) today, there is a chance that the JPY will witness a higher-than-usual level of volatility in trading later in the afternoon. Significant price barriers are being touched on almost every JPY pair. If a breach occurs, the JPY could jump to completely pare the losses made last Friday. But if the JPY cannot gain the necessary momentum, there could be a downturn on the way.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Testing Significant Price Barrier

Oil prices have continued to rise following last week’s sudden surge beyond the $80 price mark. A number of analysts have estimated that this rise may continue given the upcoming onset of the driving season in the United States and subsequent jump in gasoline consumption. However, some have begun anticipating a downward turn given the conclusion of the colder winter months and impending drop in heating oil consumption.

With this contradictory information, what we can deduce is that the $81.50 price mark represents a significant psychological barrier. Should Crude Oil prices break beyond this resistance line, there’s a chance that the rising price could continue. If it fails to break through, on the other hand, commodity traders should see oil prices declining back towards the $80 price mark before the middle of the week.

Technical News

EUR/USD

While most indicators for the pair are floating in neutral territory, a modest upward correction may take place today as the 2 hour chart RSI is floating near the oversold territory and a bullish cross is evident on the 4 hour chart’s Slow Stochastic. Going long with tight stops may be advised for today.

GBP/USD

The pair may be seeing a bullish correction today as the hourly, 2 hour and daily RSI are floating in the oversold territory indicating an upcoming upward movement. Furthermore a bullish cross is evident on the 4 hour and 2 hour charts’ Slow Stochastic. Going long for the day may be a good option.

USD/JPY

The pair seems to be exhibiting mixed signals at the moment with the 4 hour and 8 hour charts’ RSI floating in the overbought territory, while the hourly and 2 hour RSI floating in the oversold territory. Furthermore, a bullish cross is evident on the 2 hour chart’s Slow Stochastic, while a bearish cross is evident on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic. Waiting on a clearer direction for the pair may be advised for today.

USD/CHF

The pair seems to be range trading at the moment, with most indicators floating in neutral territory. A slight bearish correction might take place, however, as a bearish cross is evident on the 4 hour chart’s Slow stochastic and the 2 hour RSI is floating near the overbought territory, indicating and impending downward movement. Going short with tight stops may be advised for today.

The Wild Card

GBP/AUD

The pair’s recent downward trend may be seeing some correction today as the hourly, 2 hour, 4 hour and daily RSI are floating in the oversold territory and a bullish cross is evident on the hourly and 2 hour charts’ Slow Stochastic. A breach of the lower Bollinger Band is also evident on the 4 hour chart. Forex traders are advised to go long for today.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By eToro – The Euro and the Sterling gave up earlier gains from last week as risk aversion play weighed on the high  yielders. Last week the high yielding currencies among them the Euro and the Sterling were able to recover  losses and rebound against the Dollar and the Yen as better than expected job figures lifted recovery hops.  Nonfarm payrolls one of the strongest indicators of Job health in the US fell by -36k jobs against an expected  fall of -50k jobs. The Euro was able to rebound from the 1.34 zone to above 1.37 against the Dollar and topped  around 124¥ to the Yen.

The Euro and the Sterling opened the week also on a positive note; however the fact  that EU and US leaders only expressed solidarity to Greece without offering financial aid moved FX players to  be cautious pushing the Sterling and Euro to give up earlier gains. The Euro slide back to the 1.36 area after hitting 1.37 at the opening session and the Sterling moved back to the 1.5$ after failing to edge above 1.52$.Investors were expecting Greece to reach some sort of resolution to its debt problem and the fact that Greece failed to do so, elevated sovereign debt fears and moved investors to a risk aversion play shifting to Yen and Dollar positions to curb risk.

Euro and Sterling in tight range:

The sterling is within a tight range a break of 1.52 could move the bullish correction to resume; a close below 1.5 would move the pair to retest the 1.47-1.48 support.

A break of the 1.38 upper range would confirm the bullish correction has resumed, while a break of the 1.34 support could lead the pair to drift further south.

Daily Forex Market Analysis provided by eToro

Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

© 2009 eToro Blog.

GBPUSD breaks below 1.4992 key support, suggesting that a short term cycle top has been formed at 1.5195 level on 4-hour chart. Deeper decline towards 1.4784 previous low is expected later today, a breakdown below this level will indicate that the downtrend from 1.6456 (Jan 19 high) has resumed, then another fall to 1.4500 area could be seen to follow. Resistance is now at 1.5195, only rise above this level will indicate that the fall from 1.6456 has completed at 1.4784 already.

Daily Forex Signals

After dipping below the 89 level against the Dollar rumors over BoJ stimulus pushed the Dollar Yen trade above the 90 mark once again. Ahead of the Japanese GDP figures investors are betting Japanese growth will be revised downwards from the preliminary figure of 4.6% YoY published in February as capital expenditures, one of the biggest lagers of the Japanese economy is expected to grow less than previously expected. Although the Japanese economy is still expected grow above 4% for 2009 after the revision, the Japanese government is far from being pleased with the performance of the economy. The 4.6% growth in GDP comes after more than a 10% drop in 2008 alongside weak consumer spending and most importantly deflation. The deflationary pressures are currently one of the biggest concerns of Japanese policy makers as it risks the stability of the fragile recovery by pressing corporate profits down.

The last CPI figure stand at -1.3% YoY for January  and with investors expecting a lower GDP figure FX players bet pressure from the Japanese government on the BoJ could lead to additional stimulus from the BoJ. The BoJ main channel of stimulus to the economy is to assist credit. The BoJ currently holds above 100 Billon Dollars of credit facilities to Banks. If the BoJ will decide to expand the program it will literally mean more money printing, for FX players more money printing means a lower Yen. Investors reacted rather quickly to the rumors on BoJ stimulus and crowded their bets on a lower Yen. The Japanese Yen depreciated the most against the high yielders with the GBP/JPY gaining around 400 pips in 3 days and the AUD/JPY gaining more than 250 pips. If however the BoJ for some reason will not act to expand credit and dovish figures will continue to stream in than Yen sellers might find themselves in choppy waters rather quickly.

Daily Forex Market Analysis provided by eToro

Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

© 2009 eToro Blog.

By Anton Eljwizat

• Below is the weekly chart of the USD/DKK currency pair.

• The technical indicators used are the Slow Stochastic, Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD.

• Point1: The RSI signals that the price of this pair currently floats in the over-bought territory, indicating downward pressure.

• Point 2: The Slow Stochastic indicates a bearish cross, signaling that the next move may be in a downward direction.

• Point 3: The MACD indicates an impending bearish cross, which may signal a downward movement is going to occur in the near future.

• Forex traders can take advantage of this impending movement by having their Entry Orders in place to capture this reversal.

USD/DKK Weekly Chart

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

After a week of relatively peaceful trading, much harsher volatility is expected for this week’s trading. The main questions for this week are whether the U.S. economy will continue to provide positive data and whether the Greek debt crisis will reach a solution. An answer to each of these questions will have a significant impact on the market.

Economic News

USD – Non-Farm Payrolls Data Fail to Shake the Dollar

The Dollar saw a relatively calm trading session against the major currencies during the past week. The Dollar retained the 1.3650 level against the Euro and the 1.5100 level against the Pound. The Dollar only saw a rising trend against the Yen, and the USD/JPY pair is now traded above the 90.00 level.

The Dollar’s steady rates against the majors came mainly as a result of the solid employment data from the U.S. The Non-Farm Payrolls dropped by 36,000 as the Unemployment Rate was held at 9.7%. Both results have beaten forecasts, yet failed to have a significant impact on the market. The results didn’t proove that the employment condition in the U.S. is improving as there were more unemployed individuals in February than in January. However the results were better-than-forecasted and showed that the employment’s deterioration was halted as the unemployment rate has reached below 10.0% for two consecutive months.

As for the week ahead, many interesting economic publications are expected from the U.S. Traders are advised to pay special attention to the Trade Balance, the weekly Unemployment Claims, the Retails Sales and the Consumer Sentiment reports. The recent peaceful trading of the Dollar shows that investors are waiting for clearer signs whether the U.S. economy is truly recovered or is the more negative data expected. This week’s leading publications are likely to try and answer this question – and the Dollar will be largely affected as a result.

EUR – Euro Keeps Steady Rates against the Majors

The Euro kept a steady rate against the Dollar and the Pound during last week’s trading session. The Euro slid at the beginning of last week vs. the Dollar, yet managed to correct the losses before the weekend. The Euro also saw a bullish trend against the Yen and the EUR/JPY pair is trading around the 123.50 level.

The Euro kept steady rates against most of the major currencies due to two main reasons. The first reason is the Greece debt issue. The Euro-Zone did not publish a rescue-plan for Greece till now, however many political leaders, such as the French President Nicolas Sarkozy have stated that the Euro-Zone will be ready to help Greece if its financial problems worsened. This has managed to halt the Euro’s freefall from the past month. In addition, the economic data from the Euro-Zone showed that the economies are stabilizing. The German Retails Sales remained unchanged from December and the European Gross Domestic Product rose by merely 0.1% in the last quarter. This also supported the steady rates of the Euro.

Looking ahead to this week, traders are advised to follow every update regarding the Greece debt crisis as this seems to set the tone for the trading of the Euro in the near future. If the Euro-Zone will publish a rescue plan, the Euro is likely to be boosted as a result. However, indications that the Greek economic condition is worsening could weaken the Euro if there is no concrete rescue plan offered by the Euro-Zone. Traders should also follow the leading economic publications from Germany and France as they also have large impact over the Euro.

JPY – Yen Slides as Risk Appetite Grows

The Yen dropped against all the major currencies during Friday’s trading session. After a week of quiet trading, the Yen dropped 100 pips against the Dollar and about 200 pips against the Euro since Friday.

It appears that the U.S. Payrolls data from Friday, which delivered better-than-expected figures, has weakened the Yen against the major currencies. The end results have increased demand for higher-yielding assets on bets that the global economy is recovering. In addition, speculations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would further loosen its monetary policy to avoid deflationary pressure in the economy also weakened the Yen. Traders should also take under consideration that one of the BoJ’s goals is to see a weak Yen in the attempt to support Japanese exports.

As for this week, traders should focus on two leading publications from the Japanese economy. Analysts have forecasted that the Core Machinery Orders have dropped by 3.6% during January, following a 20% in December. If the end result will be similar, the Yen is likely to weaken as a result. Traders should also follow the Final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release on Wednesday night. Expectations are for a 1.0% rise in the last quarter. Such a result will indicate that the Japanese economy is recovering and is likely to support the Yen.

Oil – Crude Oil Prices Continue to Rise

Prices of Crude Oil rose at a steady rate during last week’s trading session. With the beginning of last week, crude oil was traded for about $78.00 a barrel. At the moment, crude is traded for close to $82 a barrel.

Crude Oil is rising on speculations that the global economic recovery in addition to supply restrictions by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will increase demand for oil. The better-than-expected Non-Farm Employment data from the U.S. economy also supported Crude Oil, as this suggested that the American economy is indeed recovering, as unemployment is stabilizing.

As for this week, traders should follow the major economic news from the U.S. and the Euro-Zone as those seem to have the largest impact on Oil prices. In addition, traders should also follow the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories on Wednesday, as this report tends to have an instant impact on the market.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The hourly and 2 hour charts’ RSI are floating in the overbought territory with the hourly, 2 hour and 4 hour charts’ Slow Stochastic exhibiting a bearish cross. Going short with tight stops for the day may be advised.

GBP/USD

The hourly, 2 hour and 8 hour charts’ RSI are floating in the overbought territory with the 4 hour chart’s Slow Stochastic exhibiting a bearish cross. Going short for the day may be advised.

USD/JPY

The 2 hour, 4 hour and 8 hour charts’ RSI is floating in the overbought territory, while a breach of the upper Bollinger Band is evident on the 8 hour chart. Furthermore, a bearish cross is evident on the 4 hour and 8 hour charts’ Slow Stochastic. Going short for the day may be advised.

USD/CHF

A bullish cross is evident on the 2 hour and 4 hour charts’ Slow Stochastic with the 2 hour with the hourly and 2 hour RSI floating in the oversold territory. Going long for the day may be advised.

The Wild Card

AUD/JPY

The pair’s 2 hour, 4 hour and 8 hour RSI are floating in the overbought territory. A breach of the upper Bollinger Band is evident on the 4 hour and 8 hour charts, while a bearish cross is evident on the 4 hour and 8 hour charts’ Slow Stochastic. Forex traders may be advised to go short for the day.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.