AUDUSD is forming a cycle top at 0.9215 level on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 0.9100 and 0.9215 would more likely be seen in a couple of days. However, the price action from 1.9215 is treated as consolidation of uptrend from 0.9001, another rise towards 0.9300 would more likely be seen after consolidation, and a break above 0.9215 will signal resumption of uptrend.
By GCI Forex Research
Fundamental Outlook at 1500 GMT (EDT + 0500)
€
The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3540 level and was supported around the $1.3385 level. The common currency tested a key short-term retracement level today, representing 50% of the March range. The pair gained ground even though there are significant doubts concerning the viability of Greece’s plans to improve its massive fiscal deficits. The Greek government today indicated its May debt servicing needs will be around €11.6 billion. Greece’s new bond issue this week was not entirely well-received by investors and dealers are concerned that a significant amount of more supply of sovereign eurozone debt with deteriorating credit quality could imperil the euro further. The yield on Greek ten-year debt has increased about 25bps since European leaders agreed to a financial aid package for Greece on 25 March and this evidences the market’s discomfort with the country’s severe problems. Data released in the eurozone today saw the EMU-16 February unemployment rate tick higher to 10.0% from 9.9%, as expected, while the March flash consumer price inflation estimate was up 1.5% y/y – its highest level in ten months. Germany posted its largest decline in jobless claims since August 2008 and the March unemployment rate fell to 8.0%. German February retail sales will be released tomorrow. French data released today saw February producer prices climb 0.1% m/m and 1.0% y/y. Despite today’s increase in headline eurozone inflation, the rate is still below the European Central Bank’s perceived comfort zone of 2.0% and given the backdrop of the sovereign credit crunch, a move higher in official interest rates is very unlikely for quite some time. ECB President Trichet said it is “extremely important to anchor inflation expectations.” In U.S. news, data released today saw MBA mortgage applications climb 4.3% in the latest week while February factory orders fell to +0.6% from a revised +2.5% in January. Also, March Chicago PMI fell back to 58.8 from the prior reading of 62.6. The most important data released today saw March ADP employment off 23,000, a slight improvement from the revised prior reading of -24,000. These data represent private sector job losses and some economists may scale back their forecasts for Friday’s non-farm payrolls report with many forecasts currently focusing on job gains around 185,000. Atlanta Fed President Lockhart said he is watching for “durable” job gains while Dallas Fed President Fisher said the U.S. cannot ignore the impact of its massive deficit of yields. Fed Governor Duke reported U.S. banks remain weak and noted the decrease in bank lending is very troubling. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3335 level.
¥/ CNY
The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥93.60 level and was supported around the ¥92.75 level. Traders await the release of the all-important Bank of Japan Tankan survey of corporate sentiment tonight with most forecasts focusing on an improvement in the main large manufacturers’ confidence index to -14 from the prior reading of -24. Other components include the large manufacturing outlook, large non-manufacturing outlook, and capex numbers with large all-industry capex expected to improve to -0.4% in Q1 from -13.8% in Q4. Even though the Tankan is expected to evidence improvement across the board, the survey does little to address the weak final private demand in the country and the deflationary problems evident in the economy. Data released in Japan overnight saw March small business confidence improve to 45.8 from the prior reading of 42.3while February housing starts were off 9.3% y/y to an annualized 794,000. Additionally, February construction orders were off 20.3% y/y and February total cash earnings data were off 0.6% y/y. Today is the final day of Japan’s fiscal year-end and most dealers believe the yen will continue to depreciate early in the new fiscal year. The government will boost Japanese government bond issuance to a record ¥144.3 trillion in the fiscal year beginning tomorrow. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.06% to close at ¥11,089.94. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥94.75 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥126.45 level and was supported around the ¥124.40 level. The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥141.80 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥88.80 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8259 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8257. It was reported that Chinese banks purchased US$ 978 billion in foreign currency for their clients in 2009, selling yuan in the process. People’s Bank of China reported the economic recovery has been “further cemented” and added the management of liquidity following the record credit expansion has become “arduous.” PBoC called on China to urgently adjust its economic model and said it must utilize multiple monetary tools “flexibly.” Some traders believe China may widen the yuan’s trading band in the second quarter.
₤
The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.5185 level and was supported around the $1.5040 level. Data released in the U.K. today saw GfK March consumer confidence tick lower to -15 from -14 in February. March PMI manufacturing data will be released tomorrow and liquidity will be light early next week on account of the U.K. Easter Monday market holiday. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4455 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the £0.8945 level and was supported around the £0.8870 level.
CHF
The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0520 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0685 level. SNB Board member Danthine said the central bank will prevent “any excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc” and added it has “the means to achieve that objective, without dispute.” Data released in Switzerland today saw the March KOF indicator rise to 1.93 from an upwardly-revised 1.70 in February. Swiss National Bank Vice Chairman Jordan reiterated last week that the central bank will work to prevent excessive franc appreciation. Swiss National Bank President Hildebrand last week reported the central bank will “decisively” act against “excessive” franc strength, noting the central bank can intervene to a “very large extent.” U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.1180 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.4240 level while the British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.5925 level.
Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.
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By CountingPips.com
The euro has reversed yesterday’s decline against the U.S. dollar in forex trading to rise on the last day of the first quarter of 2010. The Euro (EUR/USD pair) has increased by approximately 75 pips today versus the dollar to climb above the 1.3500 level in the U.S. session after opening the day around the 1.3434 level. Earlier today, the 
EUR/USD fell to an intraday low of 1.3384 before reversing course. The EUR/USD had been on a bullish path since Friday before yesterday’s turnaround and has advanced three out of the last four days since touching a low of 1.3266 last Thursday.
EUR/USD Chart – The Euro today rising higher against the US dollar on the 1-hour chart. The pair turned around from yesterday, finding early support near the 23.6 fibonacci retracement level (on the down move from 1.3817 to 1.3267 that started on March 17th). Later today, the pair ran into resistance near the 50.0 fibonacci retracement level at 1.3540 and after moving into overbought territory on the RSI. The pair has come down off of the day’s highs and currently trades around the 1.3515 exchange rate in the afternoon of the U.S. session.
By Fast Brokers – Gold has logged solid gains today, popping above weekly highs in the process. Gold appears to be following today’s large leg up in the EUR/USD in reaction to positive EU economic data. Germany’s employment picture improved while Flash CPI climbed to 1.5%. Rising prices and improving employment creates a more favorable environment for the ECB considering recent instability brought on by Greece. Hence, investors are beginning to gain more confidence with the EU, a positive for the risk trade and gold considering its usual negative correlation with the Greenback. However, the EUR/USD and Cable still face their fair share of near-term topside barriers. Meanwhile, gold has reacted positively to the disappointing U.S. economic data thus far. Chicago PMI and the ADP figure both came in below analyst expectations, reminding us of the fact that America’s economic recovery is occurring at a sluggish pace. Investors have sold the Dollar in reaction, a positive for gold during correlative forces. However, we will have to see how the remainder of the trading session plays out. Investors will receive a stream of key data throughout tomorrow’s trading session, highlight by Manufacturing PMIs from Japan, China, the UK, and the U.S. Hence, tomorrow could prove to be an active day.
Technically speaking, gold has multiple downtrend lines serving as technical barriers along with intraday and 3/18 highs. As for the downside, gold now has multiple uptrend line serving as technical cushions along with 3/29 and 3/30 lows. Additionally, the $1100/oz level could continue to have an influence on price over the near-term.
Present Price: $1114.60/oz
Resistances: $1115.96/oz, $1117.18/oz, $1119.10/oz, $1120.33/oz, $1121.47/oz
Supports: $1114.55/oz, $1112.71/oz, $111.39/oz, $1110.25/oz, $1109.02/oz, $1108.15/oz
Psychological: $1100/oz, March highs and lows
(click chart to enlarge)
Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.
Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.
Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.
By Fast Brokers – The Aussie took a step backwards during the Asia trading session after Australia’s Building Approvals and Retail Sales releases both printed weaker than analyst expectations. These figures couple with the disappointing employment number we saw not so long ago, implying that the RBA’s rate hikes could be having their intended impact. Hence, despite mixed comments from Stevens as of late, the RBA could opt to keep its monetary policy unchanged at the next meeting. However, analysts have the odds pegged at 50/50, meaning upcoming economic data from Australia and around the global could shift the RBA’s stance between now and their monetary policy meeting. Australia will keep the data train rolling tomorrow by releasing Trade Balance data. Should the Trade Balance print weaker than anticipated, this could drag on the Aussie. China and Japan will also print manufacturing production data. Investors will likely pay close attention to China’s number to see whether its economic recovery is on track. A strong figure from China could counter today’s disappointing data and push the Aussie higher in anticipation of more demand for Australia’s commodities. The UK and U.S. will also release their own manufacturing data tomorrow during the Western session, meaning activity could pick up as the session progresses. Meanwhile, the Aussie could remain range bound in anticipation of tomorrow’s action-packed schedule.
Technically speaking, the Aussie has intraday and 3/17 highs serving as technical barriers along with multiple downtrend lines. As for the downside, the Aussie has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with intraday, 3/22 and 3/25 lows. Additionally, the highly psychological .90 level could serve as a solid technical cushion once again should it be tested.
Price: .9163
Resistances: .9176, .9185, .9199, .9214, .9230, .9247
Supports: .9152, .9141, .9130, .9118, .9106, .9093
Psychological: .90, .91, .92 March Lows and Highs
(click chart to enlarge)
Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.
Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.
Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.
By Fast Brokers – The USD/JPY nearly hit the 93.75 level we have been pointing out for the past couple weeks, and it will be interesting to see whether the currency pair can keep the winning streak alive. The Dollar is being hit today after a disappointing U.S. economic data set. Both the ADP and Chicago PMI numbers disappointing, denting confidence in America’s economic recovery while effectively calming the USD/JPY’s rally. The USD/JPY has been thriving off of a combination of strong U.S. data and a BoJ keen on fighting deflation. Therefore, today’s setback in the U.S. is having a negative impact on the currency pair. Japan also released negative Average Cash Earning data during the Asia session, and this doesn’t help matters either. Speaking of data, Japan will print the Tankan Manufacturing Index tomorrow followed by Australia’s Trade Balance and China’s Manufacturing PMI. Hence, tomorrow will give investors a good picture of how the demand for Asia’s goods is faring. The UK and U.S. will also release their manufacturing PMIs during the Western session, meaning tomorrow could prove to be an active trading day. Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see if the USD/JPY can continue to stabilize around its psychological 93 area despite present weakness in the Dollar across the board.
Technically speaking, the USD/JPY faces technical resistance in the form of intraday, 1/ 4 and 1/ 8 highs. As for the downside, the USD/JPY has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with 3/30 and 3/25 lows. Additionally, the psychological 92 level could serve as a solid technical cushion should it be retested.
Present Price: 93.01
Resistances: 93.05, 93.14, 93.23, 93.32, 93.43, 93.57
Supports: 92.96, 92.86, 92.75, 92.63, 92.50, 92.42
Psychological: .92, .93, 2010 highs
(click chart to enlarge)
Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.
Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.
Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.
By Fast Brokers – The EUR/USD is logging large intraday while attempting a test of yesterday’s highs. The EUR/USD has climbed back above its highly psychological 1.35 level and it will be interesting if this momentum holds. The Euro is outperforming in reaction to a pop in Flash CPI coupled with a larger than expected decline in the German Unemployment Change. An improvement in employment and rising prices supports the ECB’s decision to keep its monetary in check. Additionally, good fundamentals from the EU are very welcome considering the psychological toll fiscal troubles in Greece and now Portugal have taken on the Euro. Positive data from the EU contrasts disappointing numbers from the U.S. The ADP and Chicago PMI both missed estimates, striking a blow to confidence surrounding America’s economic recovery. However, the ADP has been known to deviate from the headline, meaning more emphasis will likely be placed on Friday’s employment data. Regardless, the EU outperforming the U.S. has helped the EUR/USD move higher, in effect squeezing some of the countless short sellers. Although the EU will be quiet tomorrow, investors will receive a wealth of data from around the globe. Beginning in Asia, Japan will print the Tankan along with Australia’s Trade Balance and China’s Manufacturing PMI. During the Western session the UK and U.S. will also print their Manufacturing Production figures along with other key data points. Hence, tomorrow could prove to be a very active session in the FX markets throughout the day.
Technically speaking, the EUR/USD is testing the patience of its highly psychological 1.35 level with multiple downtrend lines hanging overhead. The EUR/USD also faces technical barriers in the form of 3/30, 3/23, and 3/19 highs. As for the downside, the EUR/USD has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with intraday and 3/25 lows.
Present Price: 1.3519
Resistances: 1.3521, 1.3537, 1.3546, 1.3562, 1.3569, 1.3589
Supports: 1.3509, 1.3494, 1.3481, 1.3469, 1.3459, 1.3446
Psychological: March lows, 1.35, 1.34
(click chart to enlarge)
Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.
Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.
Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.
Forex News Update: (By CountingPips.com) – U.S. employment data released today in the form of the ADP National Employment Report showed that U.S. private employment declined unexpectedly in the month of February. The nonfarm private employment fell by 23,000 workers in February following the revised decline of 24,000 jobs in January. The January jobs data was revised slightly downwards from the original release of 20,000 jobs lost.
February’s decline was a surprise to market forecasters that were expecting an approximate increase of 40,000 jobs. Despite the decrease, the employment data marked the smallest monthly job loss since February 2008, according to the report.
The service-providing sector showed an increase of 28,000 jobs in February while the goods-producing sector fell by 51,000 jobs. Manufacturing had a loss of 9,000 jobs while construction jobs fell by 43,000 workers. All size of businesses cut jobs in February as large businesses lost 7,000 jobs, medium sized businesses shed 4,000 jobs and employment by small businesses dropped by 12,000.
The market-moving US Nonfarm Payrolls report for February is to be released Friday at 12:30 pm GMT with different market forecasts predicting a range anywhere from a gain of 10,000 jobs to a gain of 187,000 jobs.
Canadian GDP increases for a fifth month in a row.
The Canadian Gross Domestic Product rose for a fifth straight month in January, according to a report by Statistics Canada released today. The Canadian GDP increased in January by 0.6 percent following a revised rise of 0.5 percent in December. January’s GDP growth was better than market forecasts predicting a 0.5 percent advance for the month.
Contributing to the GDP gain was an increase in goods-producing industries by 1.3 percent. Within this sector, manufacturing activity rose by 1.9 percent in January while construction activity increased by 1.7 percent. Also contributing positively to the GDP report were gains in wholesale trade, finance & insurance, retail trade and mining and oil and gas extraction.
Negative contributors to the GDP numbers for January were real estate agents and brokers, agriculture and forestry and accommodation and food services.
By Rita Ruvinski – The U.S currency hit a 3 month high against the Japanese yen on Wednesday as strong dollar demand from Japanese importers for financial year-end book closing triggered widespread buying. Analysts said that USD/JPY may extend its rising momentum if it manages to rise above 93 yen, which would make charts look attractive for market players to chase the dollar higher.
Against the European currency the greenback weakened to $1.3460 but still remained near 10-month high on concerns over euro zone fiscal and economic health. Signs of improvement in the U.S. economy and continuing fiscal problems in the euro zone are likely to keep the EUR subdued in the near term against the greenback.
Ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. nonfarm payrolls data due out on Friday, traders will watch the private sector ADP jobs report for March due at 12:15 GMT, with forecasts 40,000 jobs were created against 20,000 lost in February. If the forecasts prove accurate traders should start readying themselves for some strong gains as the U.S dollar may continue rising in the coming days.
Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
By Anton Eljwizat – Crude Oil has been experiencing much bullish behavior in the last few days. However, there is much technical data that supports a bearish move for today. I will illustrate below that the oil may very well be heading for a reversal, and it might have the potential of reaching towards $80 in the coming days. Forex traders involved with commodities like this can take advantage of this knowledge by going short on Crude Oil now, and at a great entry price!
• Below is the 4-hour chart for crude oil by ForexYard.
• The technical indicators used are the Relative Strength Index (RSI), MACD and Williams Percent Range.
• Point 1: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the price of this cross currently floats in the overbought territory, signaling upward pressure.
• Point 2: The MACD indicates an impending bearish cross, which may signal a downward movement is going to occur in the near future.
• Point 3: The Williams Percent Range has peaked near at the 0 marker, which means that there may actually be a strong level of downward pressure.
Crude Oil 4- Hour Chart
Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
