Five Reasons Why Gold Will Not…

By Adam Hewison – Gold has made some exciting moves recently, but what can we expect in the future? In today’s video, I point out five reasons that I do not expect gold to make a new high just yet.

Go straight to the video

If the current cycle persists, there will be some interesting trades to be had in this market and a possible new high before summer.

The video is free to watch and there are no registration requirements. I hope you enjoy this gold update and make a comment on the blog about how you feel about this video and this market.

See the New Video Here…

All the best,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

FOREX: US Dollar reverses yesterday’s fall vs Euro. Housing Starts rise.

By CountingPips.com

The U.S. dollar reversed course from yesterday downtrend in the forex markets to gain against the other major currencies today. The dollar has been advancing today versus the euro, Swiss franc, British pound, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen, New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar as of 2:27 pm EST according to currency data by Oanda.

The U.S. stock markets have had a positive session today after yesterday’s rise with the Dow Jones gaining by roughly 30 points, the Nasdaq increasing over 5 points and the S&P 500 showing a 3 point gain. Oil and gold have both been almost unchanged as oil sits at the $77.05 level while gold trades around $1119.30 per ounce.

Yesterday, the dollar was on the defensive as the euro surged sharply higher as many speculated that the euro’s recent decline may have been overdone. Today’s market action appears to show that traders used yesterday’s higher euro level as an attractive point to enter into a euro short position (shorting the EUR/USD). The euro has fallen over 150 pips today (at time of writing) to almost erase all of yesterday’s gains.

The EUR/USD touched a high this morning at the 1.3788 exchange level before a sharp decline brought the pair to the 1.3600 level where there has been buying support and has halted the steep descent. On the eurozone debt situation that has been pressuring the European currency, BusinessWeek quoted noted economist and the so-called “father of the euro” Robert Mundell as saying that Italy is the “biggest threat” to the eurozone. Italy is the eurozone’s fourth largest economy but has the second largest debt in the union. See the full BusinessWeek Story.

US Housing data is mixed in January

Economic news out of the U.S. today showed that housing starts increased in January to the highest level since July 2009 while housing completions and building permits fell, according to data released by the Commerce Department on new residential construction. Housing Starts rose by 2.8 percent in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 591,000 starts following an annual rate of 575,000 in December. January’s data was better than the economic forecasts that were predicting a rise for the month to a 580,000 starts pace.

Building permits statistics, used as a predictor of future construction, showed a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 621,000 permits in January which is a decrease of 4.9 percent when compared to December. Building permits virtually matched forecasts that were expecting permits to number approximately 620,000 annually.

Housing Completions for January decreased when compared to December as completions fell to an annual rate of 659,000 privately-owned housing completions. This is a decline of 12.4 percent from December’s completion totals.

Special Report: Free Offer by Elliott Wave International

EWI released their 100+ Page Global Market Perspective free to the public today. Download yours today here (offer good until March 2nd).

Kiwi Likely to Make Gains on AUD in Upcoming Trading

By Dan Eduard – The following is the daily chart for AUD/NZD. As will be shown through a number of technical indicators, the pair is likely due for a downward correction in the near future. The indicators used are the 7-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Stochastic Slow.

1. The 7-day RSI is shown already dipping below the upper resistance line. This typically indicates that the pair is has gone into overbought territory and will likely reverse course soon.

2. The 14-day RSI also shows the pair is in overbought territory, although it has not crossed the upper resistance line. More conservative traders will probably want to wait until the line is breached before entering into sell positions.

3. The Stochastic Slow lines show a bearish cross occurred on the 14th of this month. This typically means that a bearish correction will take place relatively soon, supporting the data from the other technical indicators.

Easing Concerns over Greece’s Debt Boost the EUR

Source: ForexYard

The USD declined against the EUR yesterday as anxiety over Greece’s debt situation is losing ground. Also better than expected economic data from the U.S and Europe helped boost risk appetite, pushing investors to riskier currencies and commodities.

Economic News

USD – USD Drops on Renewed Risk Appetite

The USD was down against most major currencies yesterday as concerns over Euro-Zone debt problems waned and investors turned to riskier assets. The EUR saw its biggest single-day gain against the USD since July. The USD’s sharpest declines were against higher-yielding, commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollars, as improved investor sentiment sent stocks and commodities higher.

The Dollar Index which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies declined 0.6% to 79.634. A better than expected result from the Empire State Manufacturing Survey released Tuesday had little effect on currencies, but helped keep risk appetite strong following gains in European equities.

A heavy news day is expected from the U.S today, with the release of the Building Permits at 13:30 GMT and Industrial Production at 14:15 GMT. With risk appetite returning to markets, better than expected results might actually support the EUR and other higher yielding currencies vs. the Dollar. The release of the FOMC meeting minutes at 19:00 GMT may provide support for the Dollar over any sign of monetary tightening sooner then expected.

EUR – Waning Concerns over Greece’s Debt Boost EUR

The European single currency rose to $1.3768, up 1.3% from Monday. Waning concerns over Greece’s budget woes and the potential for default as well as a stronger than expected ZEW result supported the EUR. The ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany fell to 45.1 in February from a reading of 47.2 in January, beating economists’ expectations of 42.5. In today’s early trading the EUR is at $1.3769 from $1.3601 late Monday and at 124.37 Yen from 122.34 Yen. The U.K. Pound is at $1.5787 from $1.5661.

The U.K. reported that inflation jumped to 3.5% last month from 2.9% in December, falling slightly short of expectations, thus helped to lower expectations that the Bank of England will have to raise rates this year.

The focus of today’s news is on the GBP with the release of the Claimant Count Change and the MPC meeting minutes at 9:30 GMT. Better than expected result will likely support the Pound.

JPY – Yen Drops on Signs of Stronger Global Recovery

The Yen declined close to its lowest level in almost two weeks against the EUR as signs of a stronger global economic recovery and speculation Greece won’t need a European Union bailout boosted demand for riskier investments. The Yen is at 124.34 per EUR in today’s early trading from 124.12 in New York yesterday, when it reached 124.48, the weakest since Feb. 4. The Yen fell versus 15 of its 16 major counterparts ahead of reports today that are expected to show a decline in U.K. jobless claims for a third consecutive as well as improvement in U.S industrial production. Japan’s currency is at 90.32 per USD from 90.14. With no news expected from Japan today, the Yen’s direction will likely be set by today’s news releases from Europe and U.S.

OIL – Crude Gains Close to 4%

Crude Oil rallied nearly 4% to finish above $77 on Tuesday, boosted by a drop in the Dollar against the EUR as concerns about Greece’s debt faded. Crude oil for March delivery finished up $2.88, or 3.9%, at $77.01 a barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil climbed the most in more than four months yesterday as the EUR rebounded from the lowest level against the greenback in 9 months. A weaker U.S. currency boosts the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Crude has also benefited from rising tensions between Iran and Western countries over its nuclear program. Iran is OPEC’s second-largest Oil producer. Prices also gained after a better than expected result from the Empire State Manufacturing survey.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The pair has been showing a strong and consistent uptrend in the past days, and the momentum appears that it will continue uninterrupted. The small local correction is slowly losing its energy, and the daily chart is showing that the renewal of the bullish trend is quite imminent. Buying on lows might be a good strategy today.

GBP/USD

Since the last bullish move, the pair has been consolidating around the 1.5770 level for quite a while now. The hourlies provide bearish signals, suggesting that the restoration of the bearish momentum is due. Going short appears to be preferable today.

USD/JPY

On the daily chart the pair is showing consistent bullish momentum for a while now and today is no different. Although the signal is not strong the pair might have a local target at 91.00 which might make it feasible for traders to go long with tight stops

USD/CHF

The cross has experienced much bearishness in the last two days, and currently stands at the 1.0650 level. There is much evidence in the chart’s oscillators that supports a possible bullish correction today. This is supported by the 4-hour chart’s RSI. Going long might be a wise choice.

The Wild Card

AUD/USD

On the daily chart the moderate bullish price movement continues within the upwards channel which still has yet to be breached. The 4-hour chart is also joining that notion with the Slow Stochastic pointing to the continuation of upwards momentum. The next testing point should be around 0.9090 . Forex traders have a good opportunity to enter what appears to be the beginning of a steady rising trend.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

UK Unemployment stable

Sterling traded rather stable in recent days as upbeat UK inflation figures and EU credit woes untitled1shifted selling pressure to the Euro. The cable bottomed around 1.553 against the Dollar and settled around 0.87 against the Euro. Although the Sterling has been rather exposed to selling pressures not so long ago the recent elevated figures spurred investors bets that UK inflation could crawl in faster than anticipated and bring tightening closer. The CPI figures published this week stud at 3.5% YoY a 1.5% above the BoE target and higher than investors’ consensus. In fact this is the second CPI figure in a row that majorly outpaces the expectations of both policy makers and investors alike. The BoE governor Marvin King in his letter to the government laid inflation prospects as subdued stressing that UK industrial over capacity will curb inflation towards the mid of 2010.The Governor reiterated that risk for the UK economy remains to the downside and did not rule out additional quantitative easing to support the economy in case of another deterioration but most importantly sealed his reference to  inflation by stressing that in case mid-long term inflation prospect will rise above the BoE target of 2% the committee will move to tighten monetary conditions.

Opposite dynamics, perfect for range boundThe Cable is currently affected by two coinciding dynamics the fear from inflation and on the contrary the fear from another economic deterioration. Since the UK holds a massive sovereign debt investors are extra-sensitive to both factors. Surging deficits can push inflation upwards and push rates higher and the currency higher however surging deficits can also raise fear over the embedded risk of the currency thus pushing it lower. The result of this bipolar dynamic in sterling sentiment is a classical case of range bound trade where arguments for both sides are strong enough to hold the currency inside the range. Only a rapid acceleration in inflation expectations or deterioration in the growth outlook will eventually lead to a break to one of the side.

The Unemployment and Claimant report as expectedConsensus bets were pricing a fall of 10K in the claimant report and unemployment to hold around 7.8% rather close to its peak. Although the sterling slightly retreated after the data was published the figures were in line with expectations and with the context of the CPI figures published earlier this week the Sterling should at least be able stay afloat. In the future however an unexpected fall in unemployment or in the claimant report could signal unemployment has bottomed thus raise bets on UK inflation and will clear the path for a major upward correction in the sterling. Because if unemployment is stabilizing than wages could hold steady rather than fall and the downside over capacity risk will be reduced. However if unemployment will surprise for the worse or even jump to the 8% figure, it will raise bets supporting the BoE assessments of downside risk and will ease inflation expectations. That will be Sterling bearish as rates hikes will seem more remote and QE could take place once again.

Daily Forex Market Analysis provided by eToro

Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

© 2009 eToro Blog.

FOREX: Dollar trades lower, EUR/USD surges over 1.3750

By CountingPips.com

The U.S. Dollar fell lower in forex trading against most of the major currencies today as renewed risk appetite dominated in the financial markets. Stocks, gold and oil traded to higher levels on the market optimism while the euro advanced by over 150 pips against the dollar. The U.S. currency lost ground to the euro, British pound, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Swiss franc today while the USD gained versus the Japanese yen.

The U.S. stock markets ended sharply higher today after being closed for the President’s day holiday yesterday. The Dow advanced by 169.67 points, the Nasdaq increased 30.66 points and the S&P 500 was up by 19.36 points. Oil traded 4 percent higher to the $77.13 level today while gold climbed by $29.80 to $1,119.30 per ounce.

The fears of the Greece debt crisis took a back seat today to the positive sentiment felt in the markets after weighing on the euro and European markets over the past weeks. Developments on the Greece front saw the European Union reiterate its support for the debt-ridden nation but also gave the country one month to formulate a plan to help cut its deficit.

Meanwhile, positive manufacturing news out of New York helped boost risk appetite today as data showed manufacturing activity grew in February at the fastest pace in four months. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, a monthly business survey of New York State manufacturers and released by the NY Federal Reserve, rose by more than expected as the general business index increased by 9 points to 24.9 points in February from 15.9 in January. The 9-point gain easily surpassed forecasts expecting an 18.00 score and brought optimism of a recovery in the manufacturing sector.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Chart – The Euro on an upswing in the forex markets today against the U.S. dollar. The EUR/USD surged 150 pips higher and reached a high around the 1.3779 level today. This pair pushed through the 200-hour moving average in red and trades above this level for the first time in a month.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Forex Daily Market Commentary

By GCI Forex Research

Fundamental Outlook at 1500 GMT (EDT + 0500)

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3755 level and was supported around the $1.3585 level.  The common currency snapped higher despite lingering concerns about eurozone sovereign credit risk.  Traders expressed some satisfaction today, however, with the hard line approach that eurozone officials are showing Greece.  The European Union today announced it is providing Greece with 30 days to confirm it is serious about improving its fiscal problems.  Eurogroup Chairman Juncker said a financial lifeline for Greece “depends on how far Greece agrees to additional measures in case those are warranted.”  Greece will likely be forced to curtail fiscal spending and raise taxes to qualify for credit assistance from eurozone members.  U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Darling called on Greece to “resolve its own budget problems.”  Eurozone finance ministers today nominated Portgual’s Constancio – a known monetary dove – to become the next Vice President of the ECB and some believe this heightens the likelihood that Germany’s Weber – a monetary hawk – will become the new ECB President in 2011.  Data released in the eurozone today saw the German February ZEW economic sentiment survey decline to 45.1 from 47.2 in January while the EMU-16 economic sentiment index receded to 40.2 from 46.4 in January.  In U.S. news, it was reported that foreign demand for U.S. Treasury securities fell by its largest amount on record in December after China reduced its holdings by US$ 34.2 billion.  Net long-term TIC flows fell to US$ 63.3 billion from US$ 126.4 billion in December.  Japan is now officially the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries with US$ 768.8 billion in its war chest, more than China’s official tally of US$ 755.4 billion.  For 2009 as a whole, foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell by US$ 500 million whereas foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries expanded by US$ 456 billion in 2008.  Other data released today saw the February Empire manufacturing survey print at 24.91, up from the January reading of 15.92, while the February NAHB housing market index printed at +17, up from +15 in January.  Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota reported the “nascent” U.S. economic recovery will “slowly continue” while Kansas City Fed President Hoenig reported the U.S. must take “difficult” steps to reduce spending and increase revenue so that the Fed is not forced to finance the “unsustainable” federal deficit.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3530 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥90.30 level and was supported around the ¥89.70 level.  Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa reported the central bank is ready to act “decisively” and is “always ready to provide abundant funds” adding it will maintain low interest rates “persistently.”  Finance minister Kan suggested the BoJ should adopt some sort of inflation-targeting measure, reporting a CPI around 1% should be a “policy target.”  Shirakawa also reported the central bank has expanded its balance sheet more than the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have.  BoJ’s balance sheet was equivalent to about 26% of Japanese gross domestic product in December, compared with 21% at the ECB at 16% in the U.S.  He also noted Japan’s previous quantitative easing measures have had a “very limited” impact on reducing deflation but added BoJ policy alone cannot end deflation.  Traders are awaiting Bank of Japan Policy Board’s monetary policy decision this week with most expecting no change in policy despite an apparent intensification of deflationary pressures.  The central bank is likely to keep its bank lending program and intact along with its monthly purchases of Japanese government bonds.  Despite a recent 4.6% annualized increase in Q4 gross domestic product, some prices declined more than they have in more than 50 years and others dealers believe this decrease will result in additional easing measures from the central bank this week.  The GDP deflator tumbled 3% – the largest drop since at least 1955 – and the domestic demand deflator was off 2.9%.  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.21% to close at ¥10,034.25.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥94.75 level.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥123.85 level and was supported around the ¥122.30 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥141.40 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥84.40 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar remained steady vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8333 in the over-the-counter market.  Chinese financial markets were closed for the Chinese New Year holiday.  Last week, People’s Bank of China reconfirmed it will “gradually guide monetary conditions back to normal levels from the counter-crisis mode” but then the central bank lifted reserve requirements by 0.5%, effective 25 February. The central bank is clearly trying to contain inflationary pressures and avert asset bubbles.  Some China-watchers believe the central bank could allow the yuan to appreciate some 5% in the coming months.

The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.5745 level and was supported around the $1.5625 level.  Data released in the U.K. today saw January consumer price inflation decline 0.2% m/m and rise 3.5% y/y, the highest level since November 2008 and consistent with economists’ forecasts.  Bank of England Governor King last week prepared the market for a temporary spike in inflation, noting it should be back at target in two years’ time.  Yields on ten-year U.K. gilts are actually higher than Spanish and Italian ten-year debt, suggesting dealers are unhappy about the U.K. debt level or its prospects for inflation.  Other data released today saw December DCLG house prices expand 2.2%.  Chancellor Darling today said he “strongly supports” the central bank’s determination to curb inflation.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5340 level.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.8745 level and was supported around the ₤0.8675 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0675 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0790 level.  Many dealers believe the Swiss National Bank will not be able to prevent the Swiss franc from appreciating too much in the wake of the euro’s widespread depreciation.  There is speculation the central bank has intervened at least eight times in recent weeks by selling francs for euro. SNB member Jordan was quoted as saying “central banks need to be independent and have a clear mandate to ensure price stability.”   Data released in Switzerland yesterday saw January producer price inflation climb 0.3% m/m and decline 1.3% y/y.  Swiss financial markets will likely be closed for most of the week for Carnival holidays.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0810 level.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.4685 level while the British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.6780 level.

Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

AUD/USD Runs Higher After RBA Meeting Minutes

By Fast Brokers – The AUD/USD has logged sizable gains today after the RBA’s minutes showed that although it paused its rate hikes, the central bank will consider raising rates again should economic fundamentals continue to improve.  Therefore, investors should keep a look out for Australian employment and consumption data when it comes.  The RBA’s minutes also revealed that the central bank decided to pause due to economic uncertainty in Europe and tightening in China.  That being said, if European markets calm and investor uncertainty subsides the Aussie could benefit from anticipation of an RBA rate hike next meeting.  EU and UK data printed mixed today while U.S. numbers came in positive.  We notice the risk trade is stabilizing across the board and gold has darted beyond its highly psychological $1100/oz level.  Investors should monitor activity in gold since today’s movement could signal lasting upward momentum in the precious metal, a positive development for the Aussie considering gold’s negative correlation with the Dollar.  However, the Aussie does face some near-term technical barriers, most notably the psychological .90 level.  Although Australia will be quiet on the data front tomorrow, investors will receive meeting minutes from both the BoE and Fed along with UK employment data and a host of U.S. data, highlighted by U.S. Building Permits.

Technically speaking, the Aussie has multiple uptrend line serving as technical cushions along with intraday, 12/11, and 12/12 lows.  As for the topside, the Aussie has multiple downtrend line serving as technical barriers along with the highly psychological .90 level.  Furthermore, 1/28 and 1/25 highs could serve as technical obstacles should they be reached.

Price: .8981

Resistances:   .8987, .9006, .9018, .9039, .9058, .9074

Supports: .8966, .8949, .8928, .8917, .8905, .8886

Psychological: .89

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

USD/JPY Hovers Around 90

By Fast Brokers – The USD/JPY continues to hover around its psychological 90 level while showing a muted reaction to yesterday’s GDP data.  Although Japan’s GDP surpassed expectations by a basis point, the previous release was revised downward by 1.2%.  More importantly, the GDP Deflator came in at a staggering -3%.  Hence, deflationary pressures continue to wear on Japan’s economy and the decline in prices is likely on the minds of BoJ officials considering they have declared their intent to fight deflation.  Therefore, it will be interesting to see how Japan’s monetary policy decision pans out during Thursday’s Asia trading session.  Meanwhile, investors are awaiting more U.S. economic data, including the Empire Index and TIC Long-Term Purchases.  Furthermore, investor uncertainty remains regarding the debt issues in the EU along with monetary tightening in China. Investors are expecting Japan’s Tertiary Industry Activity to remain at -.2% tomorrow.  For the time being, it seems the USD/JPY is content with hovering around 90 until either the BoJ becomes more active or there is a shift in overall investor sentiment regarding the Dollar.  That being said, the USD/JPY has built a little upward momentum since bottoming in February by setting higher lows since 2/4.

Technically speaking, the USD/JPY has multiple downtrend lines serving as technical barriers along with 2/12 and 1/28 highs.  As for the downside, the USD/JPY has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with intraday, 2/11, and 2/10 lows.  Meanwhile, the highly psychological 90 area could continue to play a key role.

Present Price: 89.90

Resistances: 89.99, 90.07, 90.20, 90.32, 90.42, 90.55

Supports: 89.86, 89.72, 89.62., 89.50, 89.37, 89.31

Psychological: 90, February highs and lows

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

GBP/USD Weakens Following UK CPI Data

By Fast Brokers – Although UK CPI surged this month, both the headline and core printed one basis point below analyst expectations.  Furthermore, King played down the significance of the rise in consumer prices once again as a temporary flare.  Additionally, King reiterated the BoE’s ability to reinstate QE measures should inflation drop back below 2%.  Hence, Mervyn King is batting away any excitement which could be generated from the rise in UK consumer prices.  In fact, King’s steadfast denial of excessive inflation is a bit disconcerting for the Pound since the BoE could be inclined to keep its monetary policy loose for a while should the recent upward pressure on prices prove temporary.  Elsewhere in Europe finance ministers announced they are giving Greece 30 days to prove it can commit to its austerity plans.  Hence, the EU has effectively punted and may want to give the markets another month to settle before deciding whether to take more action.  Meanwhile, investors are awaiting the U.S. Empire Index and TIC Long-Term Purchases data.  It will be interesting to see how the data impacts the Dollar, particularly if it prints positively.  Negative U.S. data could lead investors to favor the Pound over the Dollar, although it may also send investors towards the Dollar for safety.  Hence, behavior of the Greenback is still a bit unpredictable as investors weigh economic uncertainty in the EU and tightening in China.  The UK will release Claimant Count Change data tomorrow along with the BoE’s monetary policy minutes.  The CCC number gives the Cable an opportunity to build some upward momentum should the data impress.  However, weak employment data could weigh on the Cable as investors question the ability of inflation to hold above the BoE’s 2% target.

Technically speaking, the Cable has multiple downtrend lines serving as technical barriers along with intraday and 2/10 highs.  As for the downside, the Cable has multiple uptrend liens serving as technical cushions along with 2/11 and 2/8 lows.  Furthermore, the psychological 1.55 level could serve as a sturdy technical cushion should it be tested.

Present Price: 1.5665

Resistances: 1.5700, 1.5717, 1.5731, 1.5747, 1.5763, 1.5783

Supports: 1.5662, 1.5640, 1.5621, 1.5609, 1.5583, 1.5557, 1.5533

Psychological: 1.55

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.