Month: February 2010

By Fast Brokers – The USD/JPY is registering only a moderate decline today as the Dollar surges against the Euro, Pound, and Aussie.  Investors are rushing to the Dollar as a safe haven amid neutral monetary policy statements from European central banks combined with weak economic data around the globe.  Both the BoE and ECB kept the monetary policies on hold as central banks take a wait and see approach in regards to the health of the global economic.  Debt issues in Greece and tighter monetary policy in China has caused central bankers to omit hawkish comments as they monitor how these negative economic developments will impact global growth.  Meanwhile, negative data from the U.S. and UK has only fueled the Dollar’s climb, causing large pullbacks in the Cable and EUR/USD.  However, the USD/JPY is holding up relatively well since Japan has been quiet on the data front and the BoJ continues to state that it will fight deflationary forces.  Hence, the loose monetary policy stances from the BoJ and Fed are offsetting each other, providing a bit of stability for the USD/JPY.  However, today’s negative U.S. data is leading to slight declines in the currency pair.  Therefore, investors should monitor tomorrow’s U.S. Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Employment Change data tomorrow.

Technically speaking, the USD/JPY has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with 2/3 and 2/1 lows.  As for the topside, the USD/JPY faces multiple downtrend lines along with 2/1 and 2/3 highs.  Meanwhile, the USD/JPY is fighting to create some topside separation between price and the psychological 90 level.  That being said, the psychological 90 level could serve as a solid technical support should it be tested.

Present Price: 90.44

Resistances: 90.55, 90.70, 90.84, 90.95, 91.07, 91.21

Supports: 90.28, 90.12, 89.97, 89.76, 89.54

Psychological: 90, January highs and lows

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The Dollar is skyrocketing across the board as the Yen begins to crash as well, signaling investors are making a run for safety.  The AUD/USD is participating fully as investors still have a sour taste in their mouths following the RBA’s decision to halt its rate hike.  The ECB and BoE followed suit by taking a neutral wait and see approach.  Meanwhile, Australia’s Retail Sales data disappointed estimates and Building Approvals outperformed, setting a mixed tone for Australia’s economy.  Additionally, America’s data set disappointed this morning with a pop in Unemployment Claims, productivity, and earnings.  Hence, economic fundamentals were altogether negative today, adding downward pressure on the AUD/USD and other major Dollar pairs.  The scale truly tipped after the IMF issued a warning concerning Portugal’s deteriorating fiscal situation.  Now the EU must take fire for debt troubles in two member countries, adding to already rising investor uncertainty.  All of the events listed above proved a lethal combination for the risk trade, resulting in a huge leg down in the AUD/USD.  The currency pair has tumbled below December 2009 lows and is currently fluctuating within September 2009’s trading range.  The RBA will deliver its monetary policy statement during tomorrow’s Asia trading session, likely yielding further volatility for the AUD/USD.  The U.S. will also release its headline Unemployment Rate along with Non-Farm Employment Change data.  Hence, the FX markets should remain very active as the trading week comes to a close.

Technically speaking, we’ve had to manufacture some new uptrend lines with run through April 2009 levels, or the .70 area.  Hence, this gives investors an idea in regards to the extent of the AUD/USD’s recent deterioration.  As for the topside, the AUD/USD faces multiple downtrend lines along with September 2009 highs.

Price: .8676

Resistances:   .8692, .8711, .8729, .8749, .8763, .8780

Supports: .8662, .8647, .8627, .8607, .8587, .8562

Psychological: .90, January highs and December lows

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The Cable is crashing with the EUR/USD after the BoE issued a more Dovish monetary statement than anticipated.  Although the BoE halted its QE program as expected, Mervin King stated that the possibility of more QE is on the table such economic conditions deteriorate.  Hence, despite some positive economic data lately the BoE is opting to take a wait and see approach to determine whether the global economic recovery has hit a bump in the road or if we are beginning a more protracted pullback.  Furthermore, it seems all central banks want to gauge how tighter liquidity measures in China will impact global growth.  The wait-and-see policies issued from central banks have heightened investor uncertainty, leading investors to the Dollar as a safe haven.  Today’s weaker than expected Halifax HPI data didn’t help matters either, adding further downward pressure on the Cable.  Meanwhile, investors are also reacting to a pop in U.S. Unemployment Claims and Productivity.  The negative U.S. data set has ignited upward momentum in the Dollar as investors question the sustainability of the global economic recovery.  The UK will release PPI tomorrow.  Even though a strong PPI release could help buoy the Pound, even Mervin King disregarded this month’s pop in CPI as an abnormal affair.  Attention will focus in on the U.S. during the afternoon with the headline Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Employment Change data being released.  Therefore, volatility could remain at a heightened state as the trading week comes to a close.

Technically speaking, the Cable has multiple downtrend lines serving as technical barriers along with intraday and 2/3 highs.  The Cable has dropped below December lows, a negative development technically.  The currency pair now has September and October 2009 lows serving as technical cushions.  Furthermore, we’ve created some new uptrend lines (off screen).  Investors should take note our new uptrend lines run through the 1.55 area, implying the Cable could have some more room to go to the downside.

Present Price: 1.5781

Resistances: 1.5798, 1.5818, 1.5829, 1.5848, 1.5861, 1.5876

Supports: 1.5775, 1.5758, 1.5717, 1.5690, 1.5675, 1.5639, 1.5601

Psychological: 1.55, September and October 2009 lows

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The EUR/USD is extending yesterday’s pullback after the ECB kept its monetary policy unchanged as analysts estimated.  German Factory Orders printed -2.5% below analyst expectations, adding downward pressure on the EUR/USD.  Investors are also digesting a skyrocketing unemployment rate in New Zealand along with a slight pop in U.S. Unemployment Claims.  Hence, negative economic indicators continue to flash around the globe and the Dollar is benefitting as investors route the risk trade.  Furthermore, investors should keep in mind that U.S. economic data has been altogether positive before today’s set, so the Dollar has become an ideal hiding place amidst uncertainty.  Meanwhile, we recognize a huge bar down in gold, confirming the negative sentiment regarding the risk trade since the precious metal is negatively correlated with the Dollar.  Although the EU will release German Industrial Production tomorrow, focus will be on the U.S. with Non-Farm Employment Change and the official Unemployment Rate on the way.  Therefore, volatility in the major Dollar pairs could remain at a heightened state as the week comes to a close.  It seems like the Dollar is in a win-win situation these days since negative global developments leads investors to the Greenback for safety, whereas positive economic data leads investors to prefer the Dollar over currencies such as the Euro and Pound.  Hence, the EUR/USD could remain under pressure until either EU economic fundamentals turn around or the debt situation in Greece is cleared up.

Technically speaking, the EUR/USD faces topside technical barriers in the form of multiple downtrend lines along with intraday, 2/1, and 2/3 highs.  As for the downside, we’ve created a few new uptrend lines to serve as technical cushions along with previous June 2009 lows.  On a negative note, our uptrend lines now run through February levels, or the 1.27 area.  Hence, the EUR/USD’s downturn this month could signal a more lasting, medium-term decline.

Present Price: 1.3805

Resistances: 1.3833, 1.3857, 1.3878, 1.3896, 1.3916, 1.3938

Supports:  1.3806, 1.3782, 1.3757, 1.3737, 1.3689

Psychological: June 2009 lows

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Greg Holden – Traders can sometimes forget the significance of support and resistance levels. These price barriers represent points in the market where, for some reason, traders consider them significant and rethink strategies when they are reached. For the EUR/USD, the 1.3875 price line represents one of the more significant (although arbitrary) support lines for this pair, as the chart below will demonstrate.

– The below chart is the daily chart for the EUR/USD and almost shows the movement of this pair over the entire course of 2009-2010.

– As can be seen at Point 1, the price level of 1.3875 represents the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (considered one of the more important price lines next to the 61.8% and 38.2% levels). Since the price has now reached this level, it should face some serious support.

– Point 2: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows this pair being over-sold and the indicator is now cascading upward, which suggests bullish momentum.

– Point 3: The Stochastic (slow) has what appears to be a relatively recent bullish cross, suggesting the subsequent movement may be in an upward direction.

– All of this data leads one to the conclusion that the 50% Fibonacci retracement line indeed represents a significant barrier to further downward movement in the EUR/USD and both of the indicators below support the notion of a future upward correction.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

The USD was higher against its major counterparts Wednesday, heading toward its highest levels versus the EUR since last summer, following the release of better than expected economic data from the U.S.

Economic News

USD – The USD Rallies on Better than Expected Economic Data

The USD rallied against its major currency counterparts Wednesday following the release of stronger than expected economic data. The greenback erased overnight losses against the EUR after the release of a better than expected ADP Non Farm Employment report in January while the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI showed expansion in service sector activity in the world’s biggest economy.

The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 79.360 from 79.000. the better than expected economic data boosted confidence ahead of the key Non Farm Employment report Friday, renewing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner than previously forecast. The EUR/USD was also pressured by revived concerns about the fiscal health of Greece as well as Portugal. The greenback also pushed to a two week high against the Yen.

Markets are now focused on the January Non Farm Payroll Data, due out Friday. The Labor Department is expected to show that the U.S. economy added 20,000 jobs last month, which would be the biggest gain since 2007. Today, the Unemployment Claims are due to be released at 13:30 GMT. This release might prove quite volatile for the USD, particularly if the result contrasts with Friday’s expectations.

EUR – Credit Concerns Continue to Pressure the EUR

Renewed Concerns that Greece’s fiscal problems will spread to other Euro-Zone nations pressured the EUR Wednesday. There are also concerns regarding Portugal and Spain having fiscal difficulties which are adding to the pressure. Wednesday afternoon in New York, the EUR was at $1.3904 from $1.3965 late Tuesday and at 126.46 Yen from 126.20 Yen. The U.K. Pound slipped to $1.5908 from $1.5984.

The common currency rose higher during the European trading session after the European Union offered a qualified endorsement of Greece’s plans to close its budget gap. However, it later slid back to trading around a seven month low against the Dollar as better than expected economic data released during the NY session boosted demand for the Dollar over its riskier counterparts.

Today, both the European Central Bank and Bank of England hold their policy meetings. Traders should pay close attention to the U.K’s Asset Purchasing Program and whether U.K. officials decide on continuing purchasing assets to support the economy.

JPY – Yen Gains on Poor Data from Asia

The Japanese Yen gained versus 13 of its 16 major counterparts as reports in today’s early trading showed Australian retail sales unexpectedly shrank and New Zealand’s jobless rate rose. The Yen rose to 126.21 per EUR from 126.42 yesterday in New York yesterday. It gained 0.6% to 63.53 against New Zealand Dollar, and climbed 0.2 % to 80.16 versus the AUD.

The New Zealand Dollar tumbled against major counterparts following the release of the 4th quarter unemployment rate which showed unemployment in New Zealand increased sharply in the final quarter of 2009, reaching its highest level in more than a decade.

Crude Oil – Crude Prices Decline on Weak Demand

Crude Oil futures ended a two day rally Wednesday as government data showed weak Oil demand. The report showed U.S. crude supplies rose 2.32 million barrels to 329 million last week. Light, sweet crude for March delivery settled 25 cents, or 0.3%, lower at $76.98 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Wednesday.

Demand seems to remain low, despite months of slow improvement in economic conditions. Prices also declined as the Dollar gained against the EUR after a report showed U.S. companies cut fewer jobs. A stronger Dollar reduces the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

Oil’s movements for the rest of the week will likely be determined by the Data released from the U.S and Euro-Zone, mainly the Non Farm Employment Data, due to be released Friday.

Technical News

EUR/USD

This pair is giving off moderately strong bullish signals. The 4-hour Stochastic (slow) is showing a fresh bullish cross, indicating an impending upward price movement. The daily RSI also appears to be in the over-sold territory and cascading upward, suggesting strong bullish momentum. Going long on this pair may be a wise move today.

GBP/USD

A fresh bullish cross has formed on the 4-hour Stochastic (slow) for this pair. As the price has just touched the lower border of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands, there may also be an indication that it will retrace itself back towards the upper border, indicating bullish pressure on this oft-traded currency. Going long could be a profitable tactic today.

USD/JPY

The technical indicators on this pair don’t seem to be giving off much indication of direction. However, the pair is range-trading in a bullish channel and has just touched topped a recent peak, suggesting that the price may experience a downturn as it continues floating within this range. Buying on lows and selling on highs within this range may be a good choice for the rest of this week.

USD/CHF

This pair has just witnessed a bearish cross form on the 4-hour Stochastic (slow) and may soon move in a downward direction. The daily RSI also has the pair just about to exit the over-bought territory, suggesting downward pressure. Going short on this pair would probably be the best strategy in today’s trading.

The Wild Card

Gold

It seems as though a new bullish cross has formed on the 4-hour Stochastic (slow) for the price of Gold. This may indicate that an upward price movement is imminent. The daily MACD/OsMA also shows a bullish cross, supporting the notion that upward pressure exists on this commodity at the technical level. Forex traders don’t want to miss out on a possible opportunity to make fast profits by jumping in on this predictable price movement in one of the world’s most exciting and tradable commodities.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

GBPUSD has consolidated above 1.5829 support for several days. Lengthier consolidation is still possible later today. However, a break down below 1.5829 key support will indicate that the downtrend from 1.6456 has resumed, then deeper decline could be seen to 1.5500 area. Resistance is now at 1.6068, only rise above this level could take price back to 1.6200 area.

Daily Forex Analysis

By CountingPips.com

The New Zealand dollar declined in forex trading as New Zealand employment data fell in the fourth quarter of 2009 and brought the unemployment rate to its highest standing in 10 years. New Zealand employment decreased by 0.1 percent in the October to December 2009 quarter to a total of 168,000 unemployed workers according to the report released by Statistics New Zealand.

The unemployment rate rose from 6.5 percent to 7.3 percent and marked its highest level since the second quarter of 1999. The rate increase surpassed market forecasts that were predicting the rate to level at 6.8 percent.

Employment had fallen by 16,000 workers in the third quarter for a 0.8 percent decline. On an annual basis, employment fell by 2.4 percent or 53,000 workers in the fourth quarter following an annual decrease of 1.8 percent in the third quarter.

The New Zealand dollar traded sharply lower versus the major currencies in the forex markets following the jobs report. The euro, U.S. dollar, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and Japanese yen all increased to higher levels on the day against the kiwi.

The NZD/USD currency pair touched its lowest level in over 5 months and the NZD/CAD declined to its lowest level in over a month while the euro, Japanese yen and Australian dollar each reversed two day losing streaks versus the kiwi.

USD/NZD 30-Min Chart – The New Zealand Dollar dropping against the US Dollar today and accelerating lower after the  jobs report. The NZD/USD pair touched its lowest trading level since the middle of September at the 0.6967 exchange rate after starting the week on a two day uptrend.

By CountingPips.com

U.S. employment fell by less than expected and marked the lowest job decline in almost a year in January, according to the new ADP National Employment job report out today. U.S. nonfarm private employment fell by 22,000 workers in January following the revised decline of 61,000 jobs lost in December. Today’s data was better than expected as market forecasters were expecting a decline of approximately 30,000 jobs.

The employment data, despite the decrease, has improved in each of the last ten months and today’s report marked the best monthly result since February of 2008. December’s employment data was revised lower from the original release of 84,000 jobs lost.

The service-providing sector showed an increase of 38,000 jobs in January and increased for the second straight month. The goods-producing sector decreased by 60,000 jobs as the manufacturing sector had a loss of 25,000 jobs while construction jobs fell for the 36th straight month with a decline of 37,000 workers.

Medium sized businesses added jobs for the first time in two years as 9,000 jobs were created. Large businesses lost 19,000 jobs in January and small businesses dropped 12,000 jobs after adding jobs in December.

The market-moving US Nonfarm Payrolls report for January is to be released Friday at 12:30 pm GMT with market forecasts predicting a gain 20,000 jobs after December’s decrease of 85,000 jobs.

US Dollar gains in Forex Trading

The U.S. dollar has been mostly stronger in forex trading against the other major currencies so far today after the ADP jobs report. The dollar has gained today versus the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc,  Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar as of 1:48 pm EST according to currency data by Oanda.

The dollar has made its highest gain today versus the Japanese yen as the Toyota recall has had a negative effect on the Japanese currency. The USD/JPY has advanced to its highest exchange rate in a month and trades over the 91.00 level.

The U.S. stock markets have edged a little lower today with the Dow Jones falling by about 10 points, the Nasdaq decreasing by about 1 point and the S&P 500 is down around 4 points at time of writing.  Oil has traded close to even at $77.43 while gold is down by $6.30 to trade at the $1,111.10 per ounce level.

USD/JPY Hourly Chart – The US Dollar climbing higher today versus the Japanese Yen in forex trading after touching a two-day low overnight.  The USD/JPY has surged back in the U.S. session with a 75+ pip gain as this pair trades at its highest level since January 21st.

By Fast Brokers – It’s been another very active session for the AUD/USD again.  After crash yesterday in reaction to the RBA’s decision to stand pat, the AUD/USD posted a sizable rally during the Asia trading session, almost reaching 2/1 highs.  Money flowed into the Aussie after Australia’s Trade Balance deficit printed shallow of analyst expectations, implying that the RBA is being more cautious than negative economically by halting its rate hikes.  However, the AUD/USD has reversed course again on heavy volume after U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data came in stronger than analyst expectations.  The figure did come with a silver lining since the number of planned layoffs jumped.  Regardless, the data led to a broad reversal in the risk trade, dragging the Aussie lower in wake of the RBA’s pause.  Additionally, investors just received a U.S. Services PMI number below analyst expectations, further strengthening the Dollar as investors head for safety.  Hence, it seems the Dollar is in a winning position at this point in time.  Australia has more economic data on the way tomorrow, including Building Approvals and Retail Sales.  Disappointing data could place further downwards pressure on the AUD/USD, whereas positive data could help buoy the currency pair.  Investors will also digest monetary policy decisions from the BoE and ECB along with weekly U.S. Unemployment Claims.  Hence, the FX markets could remain very active over the next 24-48 hours.

Technically speaking, the AUD/USD has our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend line serving as technical cushions along with intraday and 2/2 lows.  As for the topside, the AUD/USD faces multiple downtrend lines along with 2/1 and intraday highs.

Price: .8863

Resistances:   .8870, .8883, .8893, .8912, .8928, .8949

Supports: .8842, .8827, .8827, .8812, .8798, .8780

Psychological: .90, January highs and December lows

(click to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.