AUD/USD Test .88 Amid Risk Aversion

The Aussie is logging sizable gains today as the risk trade sells off across the board.  The Cable, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY are all heading south amid fresh uncertainty in Greece.  Although Australia’s CapEx data came in stronger than expected today, instability in the EU makes a rate hike by the RBA next week less certain.  Investors should recall that Stevens cited insecurity in the EU as an influential factor guiding the RBA’s decision to halt its rate hikes at the last meeting.  Hence, should problems in the EU heat up over the next few sessions then the RBA could decide to hold off on a rate hike once again.  However, Australia’s economic data has been rather strong lately, meaning the RBA does have fundamental reasons to raise when the decision making process comes around.  Meanwhile, although Australia will release Private Sector Credit data tomorrow, focus will likely be on the UK and U.S. with the release of Revised GDP and Prelim GDP, respectively.  Additionally, investors should continue to monitor news headlines regarding debt issues in Greece, for further uncertainty could create more volatility in the risk trade across the board.

Technically speaking, the Aussie has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with intraday and 2/12 lows.  Speaking of 2/12 lows, investors should eye our 3rd tier uptrend line since it runs through these levels.  Hence, a failure of our 3rd tier uptrend line could yield a retest of the .8780 area over the near-term.  As for the topside, the Aussie has multiple downtrend lines serving as technical barriers along with the highly psychological .90 level should it be tested.

Price: .8824

Resistances: .8830, .8845, .8863, .8875, .8885, .8903

Supports: .8809, .8798, .8781, .8765, .8745, .8734

Psychological: .90, February highs and lows

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