FX Market Movers
The Dollar strengthened against all majors on increasing risk aversion as rumors circling the market suggested that Chinese banking regulator Liu Mingkang instructed banks to curb lending, a move that raised worries about a potential slow-down for global growth. China has been a key player for global recovery, and taking actions to slow the pace in order to avoid an economic bubble makes investors nervous about the effect of such measures on the global economy. EUR/USD reached its lowest levels in five months with an intraday drop below 1.41 as concerns over Greece weighed on the Euro in addition to the Dollar’s strength. The Pound showed stronger spirit as UK Jobless Claims dropped more than expected in December and the ILO Unemployment Rate decreased to 7.8%. The UK currency still lost against its US peer but continued to rally against the Euro, pushing EUR/GBP below 0.87. Minutes from the BoE meeting in January suggested it’s improbable that quantitative easing will be altered in February and showed that bank officials estimate inflation will fall short of its target as the economy remains delicate. The Canadian dollar weakened for a second day as commodities dropped and its CPI figures failed to meet expectations. The New Zealand dollar fell as well but NZD/USD managed to recuperate above 0.72 as the country’s Retail Sales numbers came stronger than forecasted.
Commodities
Gold fell for a second day as the Dollar strengthened on risk-aversion waves dominating the markets. The yellow metal plummeted from above $1130 an ounce to an intraday low below $1107, to finally settle around $1112. Silver suffered a massive sell-off as well, dropping from $18.65 to close around $17.85. Crude Oil retreated back to the $77.50 level eclipsing yesterday’s gains ahead of the EIA weekly Stockpiles Report.
The Day Ahead
During the European session the PMI Services and Manufacturing are due for release in both Germany and the European Union. Positive figures are expected, which could provide some support for the battered Euro. The ECB is not likely to appoint its new vice-president yet at its monthly meeting being held in Brussels. In Switzerland the ZEW Survey will shed light on investors’ sentiment about the country’s economic conditions. Moving to the US session, Initial Jobless Claims are expected to decrease to 440K from 444K last week and for the Philly Fed index a drop to 18.2 is forecasted from 20.4 the previous month.
Technical Analysis
AUD/USD DAILY
Bullish Scenario– Support around the 0.9050 area holds the bearish wave and sends the cross north in a new bullish cycle.
Target A– 0.9185
Target B– 0.9325
Bearish scenario– A break below 0.9050 fuels the bearish momentum to test the 0.90 level and potentially lower.
Target A- 0.90
Target B– 0.8940
Daily Forex Market Analysis provided by eToro
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