Forex Market Daily Review, Jan 19

FX Market Movers

In the UK the better than expected housing data added to the growing notion among investors that the worst is over for the kingdom and most importantly that all the gloom and doom is already priced in the battered Cable. As the BoE minuets are due this week, investors expect the BoE to announce a pause in the QE program. QE is effectively printing money and injecting it to the credit markets a pause in that process means less supply of Sterling which is Sterling Bullish. Indeed the cable was not too late to react to the growing confidence rallying across the board and trading under a key support against the Euro.  At the day’s end the Sterling closed at 1.633 against the Dollar and closed at the 0.88 critical support against the Euro.

For the Euro however sentiment was rather different with Greece’s swelling debt problem that refuses to fade. Investors fear that the EU will have no choice but to inject funds into Greece but fear even more possibility that Greece is not the last EU member to get into a debt spiral. In addition negative news from Germany also weighed on the Euro with Bundesbank lowering its growth forecast for Germany (the EU largest economy) as it expects German exports of automobiles and consumer goods to slow. At the day’s end although the Euro managed to gain against the Dollar the Currency lost ground against the Sterling. The Euro closed at 1.4385 against the Dollar, at 1.4744 against the Swiss Franc and 130.55 against the Yen.

Commodities

Gold ended the Day on the green side as the Dollar move south pushed the metal to gain 6$ an ounce. Gold however failed to break the 1,140$ an ounce and topped out around 1,139$ before settling lower at the 1,137 zone.

Oil gained slightly due to a weaker Dollar closing above 78$.

The Day Ahead

In the London session the UK CPI figures will gather much attention. Consensus pulls point to an expected 2.6% rise YoY for the month of December. After the upbeat housing data a day before investors will be especially sensitive to the inflation figures. A higher than expected figure could confirm investors bets on a UK recovery and provide further support for the Sterling. While a disappointment from the CPI figures could signal investors optimism was premature. In Germany and the EU the ZEW economic sentiment will gather attention as always. Coming after the negative outlook from the Bundesbank and Greece’s credit wows any disappointment could push the Euro back into red territory. In the New York session market will focus on the BoC rate decision with investors expecting the benchmark rate to be left unchanged at 0.25%.Investors will look for a positive outlook coming from the BoC. The Concluding data for the day will US net capital flows and US Housing Market Index. Both indicators could affect sentiment for the Greenback especially the Housing Market Index however most of the focus in the FX arena is expected to be on the European continent with the Greek debt story in the eye of the storm.

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