Market Movers of the Day
Asia-Pacific
*New Zealand’s NZIER Business Confidence (3Q) climbed to 36, a 10-year high
Europe
*German PMI Services in September slightly below expectations at 52.1
*UK PMI Services in September better than expected at 55.3
*EU PMI Services in September better than expected at 50.9
*EU PMI Composite for September beats market forecasts at 51.1
*EU Sentix Investor Confidence October worse than estimated at -12.6
*EU Retail Sales fell in August 0.2%, less than forecasted
Americas
*US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for September surprised for the better at 50.9
The Overall Sentiment
The sentiment was positive in Europe and the US with stock markets climbing spurred by better than expected economic data. The S&P gained 1.5%, the Dow added 1.2% and the Dollar declined against the majors losing the most against commodity-linked currencies. Oil ended above $70 and Gold advanced to $1017, its highest level in over a week. The US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index showed that the US service sector expanded in September for the first time in a year boosting risk appetite. The New Zealand’s Business Confidence rose to a 10-year high adding to the positive sentiment for riskier currencies and drove the Kiwi to a new 14-month high. The Aussie dollar appreciated as well ahead of the RBA’s rate decision approaching its own highest levels in over a year and the Canadian dollar advanced for a second day against its US peer. The Euro strengthened against the Dollar and the Pound on positive services sector PMI and Retail Sales dropping less than expected. The Pound didn’t capitalize on UK PMI Services figures beating market predictions and ended the day losing ground against most majors. The Yen recuperated from earlier losses against the Dollar amid declarations that puzzled traders coming from Japanese Finance Minister Fujii about intervening in the markets ‘if currencies keep moving in a biased direction’. Fuji refused to state whether the current behavior of the Yen fits the definition.
The Day Ahead
The day will start with important economic data coming from Australia. For August’s Trade Balance the country’s deficit is forecasted to have narrowed to 900M. Great attention has gathered around the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision in the first of three central banks announcements this week as markets perceive the Australian economy in a good position for the RBA to raise interest rates in the near future. Although the forecast for the upcoming announcement point to an unchanged rate of 3% rumors circling the market suggest a surprise rate hike should not be discarded. In Europe the Swiss CPI is expected to remain at -0.80%, the same level than the previous month, and for the UK the Industrial and Manufacturing Production will shed light on the country’s current overall economic health. For the US session there’s no major data coming from the country. Canada’s Ivey PMI is expected to rise from its previous reading showing growing confidence in the direction of the Canadian economy. The day will close with the UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence where positive figures are expected and the NIESR GDP Estimate that attracts interest as it is a reliable estimate for the official GDP report.
Technical Analysis
CAD/JPY DAILY
After topping slightly above 90 in early August CAD/JPY corrected along a bearish channel alternating bullish and bearish cycles. The cross presents an opportunity to open a Short position as it currently trades near the upper boundary of the channel at what might be the beginning of a new downwards movement.
Market Analysis provided by eToro
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