Month: August 2009

Source: ForexYard

The U.S. Dollar gained versus the EUR but extended losses against the JPY since Friday, after the U.S. Consumer Sentiment index unexpectedly declined in early August. The data aided the Dollar, which in many instances has tended to move in the opposite direction to its economy, due to higher risk aversion. The most important data expected today is the Empire State Manufacturing Index and TIC Long-Term Purchases from the U.S. at 12:30 GMT and 13:00 GMT. It is recommended that you open big positions in the USD’s main pairs now, as market volatility builds up today.

Economic News

USD – U.S Dollar Soars against the EUR and GBP

After going through the beginning of last week with falling trends, the Dollar finished last week significantly higher against most of its major currency pairs. However, against the Yen, the Dollar continued to drop, and the pair now stands at the 94.50 level.

The Dollar’s bearishness at the start of last week’s trading was owed to much negative U.S economic data. The Federal Budget Balance showed pessimistic, proving that the U.S. federal budget is deep in deficit. Additionally, the U.S. retail sales data was unexpectedly negative, emphasizing that U.S consumers have yet to regain their faith in their financial security. What’s more, the Federal Reserve avoided hiking Interest Rates last, despite its record low. Both of these factors led to an extremely bearish USD.

The Dollar’s downtrend was reversed in the latter part of last week, as the relatively positive inflation data, which was published via the Consumer Price Indices (CPI) managed to make investors bullish on the Dollar. The drop in commodities prices, such as Gold and Crude Oil, was another dominant factor responsible for USD recovery.

Looking ahead this week, much market moving data is expected from the U.S. economy. Amongst the main publications are the Building Permits and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday, and the Existing Home Sales on Friday. The Building Permits is expected to be the best figures in 8 months, and the Dollar is likely to strengthen as a result. However, the PPI is forecasted to deliver its first negative result since March. Negative inflation data could erase the Dollar’s recent recovery. Traders are advised to open their USD positions now, in order to make maximum profits this week.

EUR – EUR Set For a Volatile Trading Week

The EUR saw an incredibly volatile session during last week’s trading. The European currency began the week with a sharp bullish trend against the Dollar, just to lose its gains close to the weekend. The EUR saw a significant uptrend against the British Pound on the one hand, yet a sharp drop against the Yen on the other hand.

It seems that the EUR’s volatility has come as a result of the mixed data form the Euro-Zone’s major economies. For example, the French economy saw its first signs of recovery as the French Industrial Production rose by 0.3% in June, suggesting positive inflation. However, European Industrial Production dropped by 0.6% in June. The German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) unexpectedly rose by 0.3% in the 2nd quarter, showing that the German economy unexpectedly rose out of recession. On the downside for the EUR last week was that the European Consumer Price Index dropped by 0.7% in July, indicating that inflation is still dropping in the Euro-Zone.

As for the week ahead, a much important data is expected to be published from the Euro-Zone, which is also likely to have a great impact on EUR volatility. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released on Tuesday, and analysts forecast a result of 45.2. Such an outcome is likely to boost the EUR, as this will show that the German economy is continuing to improve. Considering that the German economy is the strongest economy in the Euro-Zone, this result could have a great impact on the EUR. Traders are also advised to follow the German PPI on Wednesday as this may provide much support for the EUR this week.

JPY – Yen Rises to a 2 Week High vs. the EUR

Last week, the Yen rose against all the major currencies. The USD/JPY dropped around 300 pips to the 94.50 level. The Yen rose about 500 pips against the EUR, and saw an 800 pips rise against the Pound!

The Yen’s recent uptrend is largely due to positive data from the Japanese economy. For example, the monthly Core Machinery Orders report showed a 9.7% increase, better than the 2.8% forecast. Also, late last night, Japan’s Prelim GDP results showed a rise of 0.9% in the 2nd quarter, which was slightly below estimates. This led to the JPY rising to a 2 week high vs. the EUR and a basket of other currencies in early trading. This week week, the main publications that are expected from Japan are the All Industries Index on Wednesday at 04:30 GMT. Analysts forecast the result to be 0.4% as opposed to May. If the final result comes in line with forecasts, the Yen is likely to build on its recent bullishness against its major currency counterparts.

OIL – Crude Oil Plummets Below $68

Crude Oil’s high volatility continues, and a barrel of oil has once again dropped below $70 in the past day, and currently stands at $67.93 in early Monday trading. Crude dropped last week on speculations that reduced demand and rising stockpiles in the U.S will lead higher supplies during the upcoming North Atlantic hurricane season. However, if the hurricane season isn’t as many people expect, then the of Oil may actually plummet further.

The recent strengthening of the Dollar in the past week has also had a strong impact on Crude Oil prices. USD strength typically impacts Dollar-denominated commodities because it makes them more expensive for holders of other currencies. If the Dollar will continue to strengthen during the next few days, Crude Oil’s recent dive in value may continue.

Technical News

EUR/USD

A bearish formation on the daily chart is still intact; however the momentum is already quite low. The 4 hour chart is also maintaining a slightly bearish configuration yet with no distinct conclusion. Traders are advised to hold for the break and then swing into it.

GBP/USD

The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-sold territory on the RSI of the 4-hour chart, signaling an impending bullish move. The fresh bullish cross on the hourly chart’s Slow Stochastic also supports this notion. Going long appears to be a good strategy today

USD/JPY

A correction on the hourly chart could be fore coming as a price move has originated at the bottom border of the Bollinger Bands. This may signal a move from the lower border all the way to the other border. Going long with a tight stop may be the right choice today.

USD/CHF

On a daily chart RSI the pair is showing consistent bullish momentum for a while now and today is no difference. Although the signal is not strong the pair might have a local target at 1.08 level, which might make it feasible for forex traders to go long with tight stops

The Wild Card – EUR/NOK

The price of this pair has just entered the over-sold territory on the 4-hour chart’s RSI, signaling upward pressure. The fresh bullish crosses on the MACD of the hourly and 4-hour charts support the notion of an impending bullish correction. By entering early long positions, forex traders can enter the market on this pair, and at a great starting price.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By Adam Hewison – It has been sometime since we last looked at this market which has had a remarkable move from its lows. So how high can Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) go given the current economy and the competition from McDonalds (NYSE:MCD) and Dunkin’ Donuts (Privately Owned)?

In this short video I will point out some key levels that I believe will present problems for this iconic coffeemaker.

See the New Video Here…

There is no need to register for this video and of course you can watch it with my compliments.

Now go grab a cup of coffee and watch this video.

Enjoy, and please give us your feedback on the MarketClub Traders Blog.

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

By CountingPips.com

Consumer prices in the U.S. were unchanged in July on a seasonally adjusted basis after advancing the previous two months according to a report released today by the U.S. Department of Labor. The Consumer Price Index had increased by 0.7 percent in June and by 0.1 percent in May as energy prices gained some steam before falling in July.  On an annual basis for July, consumer prices declined by 2.1 percent from the July 2008 level following a 1.4 percent annual decrease in June. July’s price decline matched economic forecasts that were expecting no change for the month while the annual rate decline surpassed forecasts expecting a 1.9 percent decrease.

Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.1 percent in July following a 0.2 percent advancement in June and have been in positive territory every month of 2009. The annual change in core prices showed a 1.5 percent increase over July 2008 following June’s 1.7 percent annual increase. Market forecasts were predicting core inflation to register a monthly increase of 0.1 percent and an annual increase of 1.6 percent.

Contributing negatively to the consumer price data in July was a decrease in the price for energy as the energy index fell by 0.4 percent in July after advancing by 7.4 percent in June. Food and beverage prices fell by 0.2 percent while apparel prices increased for the second month in a row with a 0.6 percent advance and other goods & services showed the largest monthly gain of 0.8 percent.

UMichigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment survey falls.

The preliminary consumer sentiment survey by the University of Michigan declined to its lowest level since March this month unexpectedly. The consumer sentiment survey decreased to a 63.2 score in August after a score of 66 in June. August’s score was worse than market forecasts that had predicted the monthly survey would increase to a 69.0 score.

The expectations index, which measures future economic sentiment, decreased from 63.2 in July to 62.1 in August. The current conditions index, which measures current economic sentiment,decreased from 70.5 in July to 64.9 in August. The 1-year inflation expectation dipped a bit from 2.9 in July to 2.8 in August.

US Dollar gains in Forex Trading today.

The U.S. dollar has traded higher in forex trading today after falling mostly for the last two days as the lower consumer confidence number weighed on stock markets and the economic outlook. Overall, the dollar has gained ground versus the euro, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar while the USD has fallen against the Japanese yen as of 2:35pm ET in the afternoon of the US trading session.

EUR/USD Chart – The Euro falling today versus the US Dollar after gaining for the past two days and falling back below the 1.4200 level (hourly chart).

By Jeffrey Kennedy

The following is an excerpt from Jeffrey Kennedy’s Trader’s Classroom Collection. Now through August 17, Elliott Wave International is offering a special 45-page Best Of Trader’s Classroom eBook, free.

To be a consistently successful trader, the most important trait to learn is emotional discipline. I discovered this the hard way trading full-time a few years ago. I remember one day in particular. My analysis told me the NASDAQ was going to start a sizable third wave rally between 10:00-10:30 the next day… and it did. When I reviewed my trade log later, I saw that several of my positions were profitable, yet I exited each of them at a loss. My analysis was perfect. It was like having tomorrow’s newspaper today. Unfortunately, I wanted to hit a home run, so I ignored singles and doubles.

I now call this emotional pitfall the “Lottery Syndrome.” People buy lottery tickets to win a jackpot, not five or ten dollars. It is easy to pass up a small profit in hopes of scoring a larger one. Problem is, home runs are rare. My goal now is to hit a single or double, so I don’t let my profits slip away.

Since then, I’ve identified other emotional pitfalls that I would like to share. See if any of these sound familiar.

Have you ever held on to a losing position because you “felt” that the market was going to come back in your favor? This is the “Inability to Admit Failure.” No one likes being wrong and for traders, being wrong usually costs money. What I find interesting is that many of us would rather lose money than admit failure. I know now that being wrong is much less expensive than being hopeful.

Another emotional pitfall that was especially tough to overcome is what I call the “Fear of Missing the Party.” This one is responsible for more losing trades than any other. Besides overtrading, this pitfall also causes you to get in too early. How many of us have gone short after a five-wave rally just to watch wave five extend? The solution is to use a time filter, which is a fancy way of saying wait a few bars before you start to dance. If a trade is worth taking, waiting for prices to confirm your analysis will not affect your profit that much. Anyway, I would much rather miss an opportunity then suffer a loss, because their will always be another opportunity.

This emotional pitfall has yet another symptom that tons of people fall victim to chasing one seemingly hot market after another. For instance, metals have been moving the past few years so everyone wants to buy Gold and Silver. Of course, when everyone is talking about it is usually the worst time to get into a market. To avoid buying tops and selling bottoms, I have found that it’s best to look for a potential trade where (and when) no one else is paying attention.

My biggest, baddest emotional monster was being the “Systems Junkie.” Early in my career I believed that I could make my millions if I had just the right system. I bought every newsletter, book and tape series that I could find. None of them worked. I even went as far as becoming a professional analyst guaranteed success, or so I thought. Well, it didn’t guarantee anything really. Analysis and trading are two separate skills; one is a skill of observation, while the other, of emotional control. Being an expert auto mechanic does not mean you can drive like an expert, much less win the Daytona 500.

I am not a psychologist or an expert in the psychology of trading. These are just a few lessons I’ve learned along the way… at quite a cost most times. But if you are serious about trading, I strongly recommend that you spend as much time examining your emotions while you are in a trade as you do your charts before you place one. What you discover may surprise you.

For more trading lessons from Jeffrey Kennedy, visit Elliott Wave International to download the Best of Trader’s Classroom eBook. Normally priced at $59, it’s free until August 17.

Source: ForexYard

The U.S. Dollar anticipates the release of U.S. Core CPI at 12:30 GMT. The reason this publication is so important is due to it being a leading measure of U.S. economic growth and inflation. A positive figure is likely to help the USD gain strength throughout today’s trading. The USD will also be affected by its yesterday’s bearishness, as there may be a slight correction in the greenback. Traders should open their USD positions now in order to make maximum profits from end-of-week trading.

Economic News

USD – USD Slides on Poor Economic Data

During yesterday’s trading, the Dollar dropped against all the major currencies. The Dollar dropped as much as 100 pips at one point against the EUR on Thursday, and saw bearish trends against the Pound and the Yen as well.

The Dollar weakened yesterday as a result of series of negative economic data releases. The U.S Retails Sales unexpectedly dropped by 0.1% in July, failing to reach expectations to rise by 1.8%. The U.S Core Retails Sales dropped by 0.6% in July too. The difference between the two reports is that the core report measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles, due to the high volatility of automobile sales. The fact that both indices showed negative figures proves that American consumers are still cautious regarding their expenses, lacking the confidence that the worst of the recession is behind us

The other important release that helped push down the Dollar on Thursday was the weekly Unemployment Claims report which showed that 558,000 individuals filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Both the negative Retails Sales data and the poor employment figures showed that the U.S economy is yet to pull out of recession, and thus the Dollar weakened as the trading day progressed.

Looking ahead to today, the leading data seems to be the Consumer Price Indices (CPI). The CPI measures the change in price of goods and services purchased by consumers, and thus act as a leading inflation gauge. Traders are advised to focus their attention on the Core CPI report, which excludes food and energy prices, as it tends to deliver a more reliable figure. Current forecasts suggest that prices have stayed quite stable during July. It appears that if the actual result will be similar or slightly better, it may correct some of yesterday’s losses for the Dollar. However, in case of a worse-than-expected result, the Dollar is likely to continue tumbling.

EUR – EUR Soars on Positive GDP Figures

The EUR saw a volatile trading session yesterday. The EUR rose significantly higher against the Dollar, as the EUR/USD reached the 1.4300 level. However, the EUR saw mixed results against both the Yen and the Pound.

It appears that the EUR’s appreciation came as a result of the better-than-expected economic data. The German Preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) unexpectedly rose by 0.3% in the 2nd quarter. The GDP report measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. The positive result generated speculations that the German economy is recovering sooner then expected, as many analysts wrongly forecast that the German economy will only pull out of recession by the middle of 2010.

Later on in Thursday’s trading day, the European Flash GDP was released, showing that the Euro-Zone’s GDP dropped by 0.1% during the 2nd quarter, beating expectations for a 0.5% slide. The better-than-expected figures created the sensation that the Euro-Zone economy is following the U.S optimism which we have seen in the past 2 months that the recession will end sooner than expected. As a result, this has strengthened the EUR.

As for today, a batch of data is expected from the European economies. The French Preliminary Non-Farm Payrolls will be released, and analysts forecast that 0.7% people have lost their jobs during the previous quarter in France. The European Consumer Prices Indices are also expected today, and are predicted to deliver mixed results. It currently seems that if the actual results will be similar to forecasts, the EUR may drop slightly due to the overall negative figures.

JPY – Yen Rises on Asian Equity Rally

The JPY started yesterday’s trading with bullish trends against all the major currencies. The Yen continued to rise against the Dollar, yet later on lost gains against the EUR and the Pound. The Yen soared against the major pairs as a rally in Asian stocks spurred demand for higher-yielding assets. The Bank of Japan stated yesterday that Japan’s economic conditions have stopped worsening, and are likely to turn upward over time. This created positive sentiment which was reflected in Asian stock markets, and was followed by a strengthening Yen.

Yesterday, the Tertiary Industry Activity report showed that the total value of services purchased by business rose by 0.1% in June. This is another indication that Japanese consumers feel safer to enlarge their expenses, which means that the general sentiment is that the economy is doing better. Looking ahead to today, no significant data is expected from the Japanese economy. Traders should mainly focus on the major data releases from the U.S economy, as this is likely set the tone for today’s trading.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Eyes $73 a Barrel

Crude Oil continued to rise yesterday, marking the second consecutive day of rising prices. A barrel of Crude Oil rose to over $72 during yesterday’s trading session, and now eyes $73 a barrel. Crude was helped by a weak USD Dollar, as the commodity is valued in Dollars, and thus a drop of the Dollar against the major currencies is usually followed by a rise in commodities prices, especially Oil.

The rise in Crude Oil and the weak USD was largely due U.S equities rallying to a 10-month high, and the German and French economies delivering better than expected data. What seems to be an early recovery for the leading western economies has sparked optimism for a rebound in fuel demand. It currently seems that every positive economic figure from the U.S or the Euro-Zone may spark an appreciation in Oil prices, as expectations for higher fuel demand are constantly growing.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD cross has risen significantly in the past 2 days, and currently stands at the 1.4258 level. The chart’s 4-hour RSI supports a bearish trend for today. However, the hourly and daily charts support a more accurate picture. The daily chart’s Stochastic Slow supports the recent upward trend to continue. This is also backed up by the Stochastic Slow of the hourly chart. Going long with tight stops may turn out to pay off today.

GBP/USD

The pair has plummeted significantly in the previous week. However, yesterday saw the GBP/USD pair rise to as high as the 1.6665 level. The chart’s oscillators seem to be showing mixed signals. On one hand, the daily chart’s Stochastic Slow and chart’s 4-hour MACD supports a bullish trend for today. On the other hand, the daily chart’s RSI and the weekly chart’s RSI support a bearish correction today. Entering the pair when the signals are clearer seems to be the preferred choice for today.

USD/JPY

The cross has experienced much bearishness in the past week, and currently stands at the 95.21 level. There is much evidence in the chart’s oscillators that supports a possible bullish correction today. This is supported by the chart’s 4-hour Stochastic Slow and MACD. This upward behavior today is also backed by the daily chart’s Stochastic Slow. Going long with tight stops may turn out to bring big profits today.

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF pair peaked about a weak ago. However, it is now officially experiencing a 3 day losing streak. The chart’s 4-hour Stochastic Slow indicates that there will be a bullish reversal today. However, most of the other technical indicators signal that a bearish move will continue for the pair today. This is supported by the weekly chart, the chart’s daily Stochastic slow, and the chart’s 4-hour MACD. Going short on this pair may turn out to pay off in today’s trading.

The Wild Card – Crude Oil

Crude Oil has again returned to the forefront as one of the most profitable commodities. The black gold has continued to rise in the past 2 days, and it could hit the $73 mark anytime soon. The daily chart’s Bollinger Bands signal that there may be some steam left in this upwards trend. However, the RSI of the hourly, 4-hour, daily, and weekly charts support a bearish correction to occur today. Entering the trend at an early stage may turn out to bring in big money for forex traders today.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By GCI Fx Research

€

The euro gained ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4325 level and was supported around the $1.4180 level.  The common currency improved on weaker-than-expected U.S. July retail sales data that saw a 0.1% decline, down sharply from a revised reading of +0.8%, while the ex-autos component was off 0.6%, down from the revised June reading of 0.5%.  Also, the July import price index was off 0.7% m/m, down significantly from the 2.6% prior reading, and off 19.3% y/y.   Other data saw weekly initial jobless claims print at 558,000, up 4,000, whole continuing jobless claims were off 141,000 to 6.202 million.  Other data saw June business inventories off 1.1%.  July consumer price inflation will be released tomorrow.  The euro was also supported by stronger than expected eurozone economic data that saw EMU-16 gross domestic product fall a mere 0.1% in the second quarter, up dramatically from a 2.5% decline in the first quarter.  Notably, both the German and French economies notched growth of 0.3%, suggesting the two largest eurozone economies are no longer in a technical recession.  These data may prompt the European Central Bank to begin unwinding its expansionary monetary policy measures earlier than previously believed.  Eonia interest rate futures are now predicting a 25bps interest rate hike to 1.25% by May 2010, while overnight index swaps indicated the ECB will raise its benchmark rate in February 2010.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥95.05 level and was capped around the ¥96.50 level.  The yen moved higher as the U.S. dollar was given across the board on increasing risk appetite and a positive day for U.S. equities markets.  Yesterday, Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa reported a “built-in mechanism” is required to end the central bank’s unconventional monetary policy and ensure smooth functioning of markets.  He specifically reported “It would be important to have an appropriate built-in exit mechanism which reduces the incentive to use the (unconventional fund provision) facility as market functioning recovers,” so that market players don’t become reliant on those steps and hurt the market’s functioning.”  The central bank, like other central banks, continues to discuss an exit strategy from its significant amount of monetary stimuli.  Shirakawa was in the news again today for criticizing economists’ suggestion that the central bank should establish an inflation target to overcome deflation.  The central bank’s monthly report of recent economic and financial developments was released yesterday in which the BoJ reported “economic conditions have stopped worsening” but noted “business fixed investment has declined substantially” and “private consumption has remained generally weak.”  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.79% to close at ¥10,517.91.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥135.55 level and was capped around the ¥137.85 level.  The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥157.35 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥89.95 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar lost ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8306 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8321.

Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

By CountingPips.com

U.S. Retail Sales fell in July after increasing for two straight months according to a report by the U.S. Commerce Department released today. Advance estimates of July retail sales showed that sales fell by 0.1 percent to $342.3 billion following a revised 0.8 percent increase in June. On an annual basis, retail sales are 8.3 percent below the July 2008 level after a June annual decline of 8.9 percent. Today’s data was worse than the market forecasts were expecting at an approximately 0.8 percent monthly sales gain.

Retail sales, minus automobiles, decreased by 0.6 percent in July after a revised 0.5 percent revised gain in June. This data also fell below expectations of a 0.1 percent gain for the month. On an annual basis, sales minus autos is 8.5 percent lower than the July 2008 level following June’s annual decline of 7.8 percent.

Contributing to July’s decreased retail sales were declines in gasoline station sales and building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers with declines of 2.1 percent each. Also contibuting to the decline in retail sales for July was a 0.9 percent decrease in furniture & home furnishings stores, a 1.4 percent fall in electronics & appliance stores and a 1.4 percent decrease in sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores. The largest positive contributor to the retail sales data was a 2.4 percent increase in motor vehicle & parts dealers.

Weekly Jobless Claims rise.

A separate government release by the U.S. Labor Department showed that weekly U.S. jobless claims increased in the week that ended on August 8th. New jobless claims grew to a total of 558,000 unemployed workers, an increase over the prior week by 4,000 workers. A 4-week moving average of unemployed workers rose by 8,500 from the prior week to a total of 565,000.

Meanwhile, workers seeking continuing claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending August 1st fell by 141,000 workers to a total of 6,202,000 unemployed workers. A four week moving average of continuing claims declined by 27,750 to 6,259,250.

Dollar is lower in Fx Trade Today.

The U.S. dollar has been lower today against the other major currencies in forex trading for the second day in a row.  The dollar has been weaker versus the euro, British pound, Australian dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc and New Zealand dollar while trading almost unchanged versus the Canadian dollar at 2:18 pm ET in the US trading session.

EUR/USD Chart – The Euro rises for the second straight day today versus the US Dollar in forex trading and advances to its highest level since August 7th.

By Fast Brokers – The EUR/USD is being denied by our 2nd tier downtrend line after U.S. retail sales and weekly unemployment claims all came in weaker than analysts anticipated.  Today’s U.S. data is deflating Wednesday’s rally in reaction to a more upbeat speech from Bernanke following the Fed’s monetary policy meeting.  Investors were reassured by Bernanke and ignored weaker than expected industrial production data from the EU.  The Dollar’s negative correlation with U.S. equities locked back in after deviating the last few sessions.  Investors made an assertive return to risk, yet the EUR/USD didn’t register comparable volume to the upside as it did to the downside last Friday.  However, the Euro is exerting some relative strength today after German and French GDP surprised investors by printing positive growth.  The EU’s Flash GDP reiterated the improvement by coming in at -0.1% vs. -0.5% expected.  Therefore, it appears the EU’s manufacturing hubs, Germany and France, are recovering well despite recent depreciation of the Euro against the Dollar.  We believe the improvement in the EU’s economy may be a result of demand from emerging countries such as China, India, and Brazil.  Additionally, economic problems in Eastern Europe don’t seem to be having as negative of an impact on the EU region as one might expect.

Today’s GDP news from the EU should be enough to buoy the EUR/USD until tomorrow’s CPI data.  An improvement in EU prices couple with stability in the S&P futures would help the EUR/USD hold its ground.  Meanwhile, investors should keep an eye on buy-side volume to see whether recent sell-side volume can be countered.  Our 2nd tier downtrend line should continue to serve as a reliable immediate-term barrier until we receive more data on Thursday.  While the positive correlation between the EUR/USD and the S&P futures seems to be back in place, today’s negative data from the U.S. makes us doubt a serious rally in equities today.

The EUR/USD’s previous pullback this month has created a few barriers to the upside which will need some momentum to overcome.  These obstacles include our 2nd and 3rd downtrend line along with August 7th highs.  As for the downside, the EUR/USD has technical cushions in our 3rd tier uptrend line and intraday lows.  Though today’s pop in the EUR/USD is certainly encouraging, the currency still has something to prove to the topside before we are comfortable with a return to its uptrend.

Present Price: 1.4270

Supports: 1.4274, 1.4262, 1.4241, 1.4216, 1.4200

Resistances: 1.4290, 1.4303, 1.4325, 1.4345, 1.4368

Psychological: 1.40, 1.45

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The Cable is gravitating towards our 2nd tier uptrend line, trading well off intraday highs after weaker than expected retail sales and weekly unemployment claims data from the U.S.  Meanwhile, it appears the Cable’s positive correlation with U.S. equities is back in play as is the EUR/USD’s.  However, despite the GBP/USD’s recent bounce, we haven’t witnessed considerable buy-side volume while two downtrend lines and the psychological 1.70 level bear overhead.  Therefore, there remains noticeable near-term downward pressure on the Cable.  It seems investors could continue their directional debate with the S&P futures trading back at their highly psychological 1000 zone.  We wouldn’t be surprised to see the GBP/USD continue to creep higher towards 1.67 as our 3rd tier uptrend line and 2nd tier downtrend lines approach their inflection point.   We recognizing an oncoming inflection point in gold as well, indicating the trading week could end on a volatile note.

Economic data will be quiet on the British front for the remainder of the week, leaving the GBP/USD’s performance dependent on its positive correlation with U.S. equities.  Wednesday’s CCC number and Britain’s slight rise in its headline unemployment rate show the rapid improvement in the UK’s labor market is leveling off.  Therefore, the Pound could experience relative weakness over the next couple trading sessions, especially if the EU’s CPI data can beat expectations as did today’s GDP releases.  Technically speaking, The GBP/USD must confront our 3rd tier and 2nd tier downtrend lines along with the psychological 1.67 level and June 30th highs.  As for the downside, the Cable has our 1st and 2nd tier downtrend lines to rely upon along with intraday lows and the highly psychological 1.65 area.

Present Price: 1.6592

Resistances: 1.6611, 1.6632, 1.6648, 1.6665, 1.6702

Supports: 1.6561, 1.6543, 1.6524, 1.6505, 1.6472

Psychological: 1.65

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The Yen is continuing its appreciation against the Dollar as investors exercise risk-aversion tactics in reaction to weaker than expected retail sales and employment data.  The USD/JPY’s decline coupled with gains in the GBP/USD and EUR/USD indicate investors are exiting the Dollar.  Despite the USD/JPY’s present pullback, the currency pair still has important technical cushions in place, including our 1st tier uptrend line and the psychological 95 area.  The USD/JPY’s near-term uptrend is intact until these two supports are compromised.  Therefore, it will be interesting to see how these supports hold up over the immediate-term.  Meanwhile, our 3rd tier downtrend and 1st tier uptrend lines are gradually approaching their inflection point.  Hence, the USD/JPY could jog between these trend lines as their collision course nears.  We notice inflection points in the rest of currency pairs along with gold.  As a result, FX volatility could continue for the next couple trading sessions.  On the other hand, the USD/JPY has re-entered a dense trading range, meaning a period of consolidation would not be surprising.

Present Price: 95.45

Resistances: 95.61 95.91, 96.10, 96.47, 96.67

Supports:  95.30, 94.99, 94.75, 94.52, 94.36

Psychological: 95

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.