Month: July 2009

By Adam Hewison – Today I’ll be looking at the Euro versus the US dollar.

The big question is, are all the “Trade Triangles” lined up for this trade? The answer is yes, and then some. In my new video I step you through a detailed analysis of this market.

You will see how I measure moves and how this particular move could be a really good one. I will also share with you how MarketClub’s charts can help you determine price swings in the market.

You can watch this video with my compliments and there is no registration requirements.

See the New Video Here…

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

By Fast Brokers – Gold hit a speed bump at our 2nd tier downtrend line after the precious metal failed to garner the volume to send it past more near-term technical barriers.  Gold still faces our 2nd and 3rd tier downtrend lines along with July 1st highs and the psychological $950/oz level.  The fact gold hasn’t received large volume on the buy-side during its present run is a bit disconcerting.  We will need to see a large technical movement above the aforementioned technical obstacles with considerable volume before we feel comfortable reinitiating our own uptrend call.  However, the EUR/USD and GBP/USD have made promising developments to the upside along with U.S. equities, setting the stage for a greater commitment to the uptrend.

On a speculative note, the U.S. reported negative TIC Long-Term Purchases today despite a record gain in China’s reserves.  Therefore, China may in fact be diversifying some of its new reserves from U.S. Treasuries to commodities such as gold.  However, as we noted, this is purely speculation, yet the situation should be considered and deliberated.  Should China’s reserves continue to grow healthfully while their central bank divests from U.S. Treasuries, this could provide relative strength to gold over the near to medium-term.

Present Price: $932.80/oz

Resistances: $934.05/oz, $935.57/oz, $937.26/oz, $939.28/oz, $941.13/oz

Supports: $932.54/oz, $930.51/oz, $928.83/oz, $927.48/oz, $925.46/oz

Psychological: $950/oz

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The EUR/USD managed to build a temporary base above 1.40 earlier today, and has proceeded to propel off of our 2nd tier uptrend line after JPMorgan’s 2nd quarter earnings blew away analyst expectations.  Volume seems to be picking up, and we could finally view a technical breakout should sufficient buy-side action persist.  The EUR/USD has cruised past our 3rd tier downtrend line, a key near-term barrier since it runs through July highs.  We’d like to see momentum keep price comfortably above our downtrend lines for the immediate term to avoid the possibility of a retracement.  If the EUR/USD can’t stay above our 3rd tier downtrend line we may see a small pullback with the possibility of consolidation.  This rally could have legs since we’ve seen very positive earnings results so far this week.  IBM and Google will report later today, and if they surpass analyst expectations this may be enough juice to send the EUR/USD over the top.  Meanwhile, 1.40 is fading into the rearview mirror, meaning previous July highs may be taken down next.  We’re out of downtrend line formations for the time being, a positive signal for the near-term.  We still need to see how the EUR/USD builds off of today’s momentum.  However, with U.S. unemployment claims coming in well below analyst expectations for the second week in a row, there’s more positive than negative news today.

On a cautionary note, CIT isn’t having any breakthroughs with their negotiations for another shot of liquidity, meaning the business lender may file for bankruptcy on Friday.  Though some analysts state the failure of CIT wouldn’t pose any systemic risks, it remains to seen what impact a pending bankruptcy could have on the U.S. economy and its currency.  However, investors seem to be brushing the CIT news aside, and are focusing on the encouraging earnings reports.  It’s interesting how the Euro is exhibiting a relative strength, as seen in the EUR/GBP, since this week’s economic data from the EU underperformed.  When banking on the concept of a global economic recovery, investors may opt to invest in the Euro vs. lower interest rate currencies since the EU hasn’t made as large of a commitment to liquidity.  An immediate-term key for the EUR/USD will be taking a leg up from our 3rd tier uptrend line.  Meanwhile, keep an eye on the currency pair’s interaction July 1st highs should they be reached.  Once again, with the EU’s economic data out of the way for the week, the EUR/USD’s performance should rely heavily upon 2nd quarter earnings reports and U.S. equities.  Even though the S&P futures are off slightly pre-market, the EUR/USD’s performance to the upside could be good news for the U.S. markets.

Present Price: 1.4140

Resistances: 1.4145, 1.4166, 1.4183, 1.4201. 1.4224

Supports: 1.4126, 1.4106, 1.4091, 1.4071, 1.4055

Psychological: 1.40

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The Cable has deflected twice from our 3rd tier uptrend line as the psychological 1.65 level looms overhead.  The Cable continues to underperform against the EUR/USD, exemplified by an upturn in the EUR/GBP.  The Pound’s relative weakness comes despite a better than expected CCC and average earnings data as compared to the Euro’s disconcerted showing in economic sentiment and industrial production.  Meanwhile, the Cable has fallen into a pattern of consolidation over the past 24 hours.  The GBP/USD is struggling with the dense June trading range as we anticipated.  The Cable’s large near-term technical obstacles could be adding to the Pound’s relative weakness.  Volume has been pretty tame to the upside.  The GBP/USD likely needs a shot of considerable buy-side volume to vault the currency pair past our 3rd tier uptrend line and 1.65.  Even if the Cable should make it beyond these barriers, the GBP/USD still needs to deal with our 3rd tier downtrend line and June highs.  Hence, the Cable has its work cut out for it to the upside.

Second quarter earnings continue to come in better than analyst expectations.  JPMorgan joined the pack today by eclipsing analyst estimates with tech heavyweights IBM and Google reporting later on.  Investors have been highly anticipating the 2nd quarter earnings season to get a better picture of the state of corporate performance among the global economic stabilization taking place data-wise.  If earnings should continue to outperform estimates, the Dollar should continue to depreciate against both the Pound and Euro barring any external shock.  Speaking of which, investors should monitor the CIT situation to see whether a bankruptcy would have systemic implications.  Any large systemic shock could have a destabilizing effect on the GBP/USD’s uptrend.  However, any CIT predictions at this point are merely speculation, and the concrete data and earnings of this week are spinning the GBP/USD’s story in a positive light.  Investors should also keep an eye on the interaction of the S&P futures with their July 1st highs since the two investment vehicles are positive correlated.

Present Price: 1.6430

Resistances: 1.6459, 1.6485, 1.6522, 1.6548, 1.6589

Supports: 1.6423, 1.6405, 1.6366, 1.6342, 1.6301

Psychological: 1.65

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The USD/JPY made a concerted effort to get back above our 1st tier uptrend line in a bid to return to a safety zone.  The USD/JPY showed some upward mobility, exercising its positive correlation with U.S. equities.  The S&P futures logged considerable gains, and the USD/JPY was inclined to follow suit, tagging along with the concept of a global economic recovery.  However, the currency pair was batted away by our 1st tier uptrend line due to insufficient volume.  Regardless, it’s an encouraging progression since the USD/JPY was recently flirting with the idea of retesting the highly psychological 90 level.  The USD/JPY is hovering back around our 1st tier downtrend line with the S&P futures trying to add onto yesterday’s gains.  Should the S&P follow with its technical upside breakout, the USD/JPY should edge back into its uptrend.  However, the USD/JPY is still trading in a dangerous zone and investors should exercise a bit of caution for the immediate-term.

Present Price: 93.65

Resistances: 93.76, 94.45, 94.99, 95.73, 96.33

Supports:  93.28, 92.57, 91.96, 91.50, 91.03

Psychological: 90, 95

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

Source: ForexYard

Crude Oil prices remain steady at above $61 a barrel on Thursday, after gaining 3.4% in the previous session. Oil’s gains on Wednesday came after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a bigger-than-forecast drop in Crude supplies last week. And along with a weak U.S. dollar, which traded near a month low against major currencies, this supported the rally in Oil prices. Investors will be keenly watching the weekly U.S. jobless claims data due to be released later on Thursday, for a clue of a possible rebound of the world’s largest economy.

Economic News

USD – USD Plummets as Stock Markets Rally

The Dollar dropped against most of its major currency counterparts yesterday as a rally in global stock markets diminished demand for the safety of the U.S currency. The Dollar traded at $1.4108 per EUR after sliding 1% yesterday and reaching a day’s low of $1.4135, the weakest level since July 2nd. However the USD was up against the Yen trading at 94.36 from 93.39 late Tuesday.

Better than expected results from the New York Manufacturing Index and as expected results from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which were released Wednesday put further pressure on the Dollar. However the major mover in the market Wednesday were the equity markets, with U.S stocks rallying sharply following the release of better than expected 2nd quarter earnings from Intel.

It is likely that earnings results will continue to dominate market movements in the following days as the earnings from J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America are due later this week. Traders should also follow the release of the Unemployment Claims, TIC Long Term Purchases and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index to be released today at 12:30 GMT, 13:00 GMT and 14:00 GMT respectively as these results may either strengthen or reverse the current bearish sentiment on the Dollar.

EUR – EUR Gains on Renewed Market Optimism

Benefiting from the return of risk appetite and gains in equities the EUR traded at $1.4112 versus the USD, up from $1.3935 late Tuesday. The EUR was also up against the Yen trading at 133.12 up from 130.14 yesterday. The British pound jumped to $1.6425 against the USD from $1.6270 Tuesday.

The EUR was little changed after a report showed Annual Consumer Price Inflation in the Euro-Zone fell 0.1% in June, marking negative inflation in the region for the first time since its creation. The British Pound rose 0.6% versus the Dollar following gains in financial sector stocks. The Pound was little affected by the overall pessimistic economic data released Wednesday from the U.K. The data showed the number of people claiming jobless benefits in June rose at its slowest pace in more than a year; however the overall unemployment rate rose to its highest level since January 1997.

With no major news due to be released today from Europe, traders should follow the data to be released from the U.S as these will have great affect on any USD currency crosses. Furthermore, traders should follow closely the continuing release of the corporate earning reports as they will continue to be the driving force behind the movement in equity markets and consequently the demand for riskier currencies such as the EUR and GBP.

JPY – The Yen Slides as Investors Move to Riskier Assets

The Yen slid against the EUR, trading at 133.01 per EUR after declining as much as 2.1% in its largest intraday loss since May. The Yen was also down 0.8% against the USD trading at $94.25. The drop followed a report that showed U.S. industrial production for June fell less than forecasted and Intel Corp.’s second quarter earnings were higher than estimated.

The JPY experienced a phenomenal rally these past two weeks as investors retuned to the safety of the Japanese currency following the release of poor U.S employment data. However, this rally was snapped Monday with a better than expected start to the 2nd quarter earnings season. The positive earnings reports from Goldman Sachs and Intel rekindled risk appetite among investors diminishing demand for the safe haven Yen and in turn pushing them to riskier, higher yielding currencies. With stock markets continuing to rally it is likely the JPY will extend its losses during today’s trading as well.

OIL – Oil Prices Rise as U.S stockpiles Fall

Crude Oil continues to climb as stock markets rally and U.S Crude Oil Inventories showed a larger than expected decline. Crude oil for August delivery rose as much as 47 cents or 0.8% to $62.01 a barrel Wednesday. The weak Dollar and huge rally in the stock market following the release of Intel’s forecast sales helped boost Oil prices. Crude inventories fell by 2.81 million barrels vs. the expected 2.1million and refineries are operating at 87.9%, the highest since August. However demand is still weak and so it is unlikely Oil prices will reach $70 a barrel again in the short term and it is likely to remain in the $60-$65 range.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The pair has been range-trading for a while now with no specific direction. The daily chart’s Slow Stochastic is providing us with mixed signals. All oscillators on the 4-hour chart do not provide a clear direction either. Waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies might be a good strategy today.

GBP/USD

A bearish formation on the daily chart is still intact; however the momentum is already quite low. The 4-hour chart is maintaining a slightly bearish indication yet with no distinct conclusion. Also, there is a bearish cross forming on the hourly chart, indicating that the bearish signal is in place. Traders are advised to hold for the breach and then swing into it.

USD/JPY

There appears to be a bearish cross on the Slow Stochastic of the 4-hour chart, signaling a downward correction may occur shortly. The price of this pair also seems to be floating in the over-bought territory on the 4 hour chart’s RSI. Going short and riding out the impending downward correction may be wise today.

USD/CHF

The pair’s trading continues without a distinct breaking direction. The hourly chart is giving mixed signals and is mostly floating in neutral territory. The hourly charts however, are showing a slight bullish momentum. The daily chart’s Slow Stochastic and the RSI confirm that the direction is indeed up

The Wild Card – Silver

The recent upward trend in this commodity appears to be running out of steam lately. The highs of the upswings have begun to diminish in size and the longer-term oscillators are beginning indicate an imminent correction. There appears to be a bearish cross on the 4 hour chart’s Slow Stochastic, and the weekly Momentum oscillator has turned downwards. Forex traders have a great opportunity to enter this possible trend reversal at a fantastic price and capture the impending price swing.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By GCI Fx Research

€

The euro moved sharply higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4120 level and was supported around the $1.3960 level.  Strong gains in U.S. equity markets added to the common currency’s ascent today.  Data released in the U.S. today saw the June headline consumer price index print at +0.7% m/m, up from, +0.1% m/m in May, while the ex-food and energy component was up +0.2% m/m, up from +0.1% m/m in May.  Also, headling CPI was off 1.4% y/y with the ex-food and energy component up 1.7% y/y, down from +1.8% y/y in May.  Also, the New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State manufacturing index improved to -0.55 in July from -9.41 in June.  Also, June industrial production improved to -0.4% from a revised prior reading of -1.2% while June capacity utilization printed at 68.0%, above estimates but below the revised May reading of 68.2%.  Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s 24 June Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be released later today and traders will pay close attention to any indication that policymakers are contemplating an exit strategy to the massive amount of monetary stimuli in the markets.  There is also speculation the Fed could make a further announcement about its Treasury buying operations.  In eurozone news, EMU-16 June consumer price inflation fell 0.1%, down from a flat reading in May.  European Central Bank President Trichet reported the central bank remains an “anchor of stability and confidence in challenging times.” Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3435 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥94.05 level and was supported around the ¥93.25 level.  As expected, Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged overnight with the overnight call rate target unchanged at 0.10%, a unanimous vote. Notably, the central bank extended its foreign exchange swap line with the Federal Reserve until 1 February 2010.  BoJ Governor Shirakawa signaled a possible end to the central bank’s emergency credit programs, reporting “We decided to extend the measures by three months this time, rather than six months, because financial conditions are improving and we expect this improvement to continue.  If this situation develops further, we will end (the programs).”  The BoJ decided to extend its policy of purchasing bonds from financial institutions and providing them with unlimited loans to 31 December from 30 September.  BoJ’s median forecast for real gross domestic product growth for next fiscal year was changed to -3.4%, worse than the previous -3.1% decline.  The core consumer price index forecast was upgraded to -1.3% from -1.5%. Shirakawa also indicated banks remain reluctant to lend to small companies and added financial conditions are improving but remain severe.  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.08% to close at ¥9,269.25.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥132.75 level and was supported around the ¥130.45 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥154.80 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥87.55 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar weakened vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8308 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8310.  China reported its foreign reserves expanded US$ 42 billion in June.

₤

The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.6465 level and was supported around the US$ 1.6300 figure.  Data released in the U.K. today saw the June claimant count rise 23,800, down from May’s downwardly revised 30,800.  ILO’s measure of unemployment rose 281,000 to 2.38 million in the three months to May, the highest quarterly reading since at least 1971.  Bank of England Deputy Governor Bean denied reports the BoE has paused its quantitative easing program following last week’s decision to not increase the ₤125 billion asset purchase program.  Former MPC member Blanchflower reported the BoE should have expanded the program last week.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.6185 level.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.8595 level and was supported around the ₤0.8545 level.

Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

By CountingPips.com

Consumer price inflation in the U.S. rose by more than expected in June according to a report released today by the U.S. Department of Labor. The consumer price index increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.7 percent in June as a rise in gasoline prices boosted inflation. The June cpi rose more than the 0.5 percent rise economic forecasts were expecting and follows a 0.1 percent gain in May. The annual rate of increase for cpi, despite the monthly increase, is 1.4 percent lower than the June 2008 level.

Core cpi, excluding volatile energy and food prices, increased by 0.2 percent in June following a 0.1 percent increase in May.  On an annual basis, core prices are 1.7 percent higher than June 2008. Forecasts were expecting a 0.1 percent rise for the month and an annual rise of 1.7 percent.

Energy prices pushed prices higher as the energy index rose by 7.4 percent in June with the gasoline index rising by 17.3 percent.  The energy index had increased by 0.2 percent in May after decreasing in both April and March.  The food index was unchanged in June after four straight months of decline.

US Dollar falls lower in Forex Trading today.

The U.S. dollar has been mostly lower today against the other major currencies in the spot forex market.  The dollar has been weaker versus the euro, British pound, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and New Zealand dollar while trading higher versus the Japanese yen.

The euro has advanced versus the dollar as the EUR/USD has increased past the 1.4100 threshold today to trading at 1.4110 at 1:31 pm after opening the day at 1.3983 at 00:00 GMT according to currency data from Oanda.

The British pound has risen today as the GBP/USD has advanced from its 1.6326 opening exchange rate to trading at 1.6431 usd per gbp.

The dollar has traded higher versus the Japanese yen today and the pair is trading at 94.32 after opening at the day at the 93.56 exchange rate.

The dollar is falling versus the Canadian loonie for the third day in a row as the USD/CAD trades at the exchange rate of 1.1176 after opening the day at 1.1341.

The dollar has also fallen against the Swiss franc as the USD/CHF trades at 1.0754 after opening at 1.0878 today.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars have both advanced higher today against the USD. The AUD/USD has climbed from its 0.7941 opening rate to trading at 0.8032 later this afternoon.  The NZD/USD has increased from its 0.6409 opening to trading at 0.6505 later today.

EUR/USD Chart – The Euro rises today versus the US Dollar in forex trading and advancing past the 1.4100 threshold.

By Adam Hewison – While the US dollar was supposed to lose ground against its counter parties, the market has remained surprisingly stubborn and trapped in a sideways trading range.

In today’s video I will explore what’s going on, and where I think this market is headed in the future.

You can watch this video with my compliments and there is no registration requirements.

See the New Video Here…

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub