Month: May 2009

U.S. Retail Sales decreased for the second consecutive month in April according to a report by the U.S. Commerce Department released today. Advance estimates of April retail sales showed that sales decreased by 0.4 percent to $337.7 billion following a revised 1.3 percent decline in March. On an annual basis, retail sales decreased by 10.1 percent from the April 2008 level following March’s 9.6 percent annual decline. Today’s data was worse than the market forecasts that were expecting retail sales to be flat or show no change for the month.

April’s retail sales numbers were weighted down by a 2.8 percent decrease in electronics & appliance store sales, a 2.3 percent decline in gasoline station sales and a 1.0 percent fall in food & beverage stores. Also showing declines for the month were furniture & home furnishings stores, general merchandise stores, clothing & clothing accessories stores and nonstore retailers. On an annual basis, auto and parts dealer sales have dropped by 20.7 percent while gasoline station sales have plummeted by 36.4 percent.

Positive contributors to the retail sales data in April were sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores with a 0.3 percent increase,  health & personal care stores with a 0.4 percent increase and food services & drinking places with a 0.2 percent increase. On an annual basis, health & personal care stores have risen the most with a 4.0 percent increase while food services & drinking place sales have also shown a rise by 1.4 percent.

Forex Market – US Dollar trading higher today.

The U.S. dollar has been trading higher in forex trading today against the major currencies after falling across the board yesterday. The dollar has gained against the euro, British pound, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and New Zealand dollar while declining versus the Japanese yen.

The euro has been falling versus the dollar after gaining yesterday. The EUR/USD has declined from today’s 1.3690 opening at 00:00GMT to trading at approximately 1.3577 in the afternoon of the US trading session at 1:27pm ET according to currency data from Oanda.

The British pound has dropped today versus the American currency as the GBP/USD has gone from 1.5310 to trading at 1.5139 dollars per pound. The dollar is declining against the Japanese yen for a third straight day as the USD/JPY has fallen from its 96.17 opening to trading at 95.83.

The dollar has risen against the Canadian dollar after the USD/CAD’s opening at 1.1576 earlier today to trading later at 1.1738.

Meanwhile, the USD has advanced against the Swiss franc from 1.1016 to trading at 1.1086. The Australian dollar has declined versus the USD as the AUD/USD trades at 0.7525 after opening today at 0.7680 while the New Zealand dollar has declined versus the USD and trades at 0.5903 after opening at 0.6062.

AUD/USD Chart – The Australian Dollar falling sharply today versus the US Dollar in forex trading action and approaching the 0.7500 level(Hourly Chart).

Source: ForexYard

Growing optimism about the easing of the financial crisis is leading trading. Pay attention today to the releases of the Core Retail Sales and Crude Oil inventories to see if the trend continues. Positive news from the U.S and increase in the oil prices will further hurt the Dollar’s appeal.

Economic News

USD – U.S Retail Sales on Tap

The dollar fell yesterday to a 4-month low against most of its major currencies, as growing optimism about the global economy boosted investors’ risk appetite and curbed demand for the U.S. currency as a safe haven. The greenback hit a seven week low against the EUR above 1.37 level, and a four-month low against the sterling as the pair closed around 1.5290.

Yesterday, government reports showed that the U.S. trade gap widened in March for the first time in eight months, as oil imports jumped and weak overseas demand took a bite out of exports. Both U.S. imports and exports have fallen sharply since last year, as the global finance crisis has tightened credit and caused consumers and businesses to cut spending. However, in a sign the U.S. economy could be nearing a turnaround, imports declined at a slower rate, down 1% in March compared with a 5% drop in February and even bigger declines in some preceding months.

Looking ahead to today, there are several important news releases coming out of the U.S. These include the Retail Sales and Crude Oil inventories at 12.30 GMT and 14:30 GMT respectively. Better-than-expected results may help the Dollar recover some of yesterday’s losses against some of its crosses such as the EUR and GBP. On the other hand, if the results turn out to be lower than forecasts, then the Dollar may record a fairly bearish session in today’s trading. Traders should pay close attention to the market as there is an opportunity for traders to capitalize on the fluctuations which are likely to follow these releases.

EUR – The EUR Continues to Strengthen against the USD

The 16 nation currency extended gains against the dollar yesterday after the European Central Bank Governing Council member Axel Weber said there is no need for the ECB to buy further private assets to support lending. Yesterday, the EUR hit a seven week high against the dollar reaching above 1.37. European countries should improve coordination of economic stimulus plans and go further in integrating financial regulation than they are now considering, the International Monetary Fund said. The IMF advice comes the day after data showed industrial production in France and Italy fell more than economists forecast, indicating that European growth may have suffered more than expected in the first quarter. In addition, the European Central Bank last week cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low 1% and President Jean- Claude Trichet indicated borrowing costs could go lower. Trichet said the ECB would also buy as much as 60 billion euros ($80 billion) of covered bonds, effectively printing money to reflate the economy.

Looking ahead to today, the most important economic indicator scheduled to be released from the Euro-Zone is the Industrial Production at 9:00 GMT. Analysts are forecasting this figure to increase from its previous reading. Traders will be paying close attention to today’s announcement as a stronger than expected result may continue to bolster the EUR in the short-term.

JPY – JPY Makes Big Gains on Dollar, EUR

The Japanese yen strengthened against most of its major currencies yesterday as a slump in stock prices due to increased profit taking reduced demand for higher-yielding and riskier assets. The yen climbed to multi-day highs against its major counterparts. The JPY ended yesterday’s trading up at 96.15 against the USD, and has continued to hold these gains through today’s early trading hours. Japan’s current-account surplus narrowed for a second month in March as exports tumbled amid the global recession. Any revival of demand for the country’s cars and electronics may be slow, even after the drop in shipments to the U.S. and China, Japan’s two largest markets, eased in March. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the global recession will be deeper and the recovery slower than earlier predicted as financial markets take longer to stabilize. It will be interesting to see how the local Japanese data will interact with equity market movement for the rest of the week in relation to the JPY’s recent behavior

Crude Oil – Oil Prices Hit 6-Month High

Crude oil prices yesterday rose to more than $60 a barrel, their highest level in six months, on hopes that the world economy would soon bounce back and demand for oil may recover. Oil had risen in response to a global rebound in stocks. Weakness in the dollar had also spurred the oil price, which tends to rise when the dollar falls. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) isn’t expected to take any actions to upset current prices when it meets later this month in Vienna. Oil prices are likely to remain below the $75 a barrel price targeted by Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s dominant member. Most observers believe the cartel is wary of letting prices rise too quickly for fear it would imperil an economic recovery.

Technical News

EUR/USD

After a few days of bullish momentum, it seems that the pair has hit a strong resistance level placed at the 1.3740 level. Furthermore, the daily chart’s RSI has changed direction, and is currently approaching the 70 line, signaling that a bearish correction might take place. It appears that a slide beneath the 1.3600 level could trigger a bearish correction.

GBP/USD

There is a very distinct bullish channel formed on the daily chart, as the cable is currently floating in its upper level. However, as the pair is trading near the Bollinger Bands’ higher boarder, it seems that a modest technical correction might take place. Going short with tight stops might be the right choice today.

USD/JPY

After reaching the 96.00 level, the daily chart shows that the pair has completed an “M” formation. Currently it seems that the hammer candle on the 4-hour chart is signaling a bullish move, which has the potential of reaching the 97.50 level.

USD/CHF

The pair saw a very strong bearish trend over the past couple of weeks, dropping over 600 pips to the 1.1000 level. However, a doji formation in addition to a bullish cross on the 4-hour chart’s Slow Stochastic, suggests that a bullish reversal is imminent. Going long seems to be the preferable choice today.

The Wild Card – Gold

Gold continues with its strong bullish momentum as it is currently traded for $925 an ounce. As all oscillators on the 4-hour chart are pointing up, it appears that if Gold will breach through the $930 resistant level, it has the potential of reaching towards the $940 level. This might give forex traders a great opportunity to join a very popular trend.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

The United States trade deficit edged up in March after decreasing for seven straight months according to a release by the Commerce Department today. The U.S. trade deficit increased by 5.5 percent as the deficit registered $27.6 billion in March following a revised deficit of $26.1 billion in February. Today’s data was better than market forecasts that were expecting a deficit of approximately $29.0 billion for the month.

The U.S. had a total of $123.6 billion worth of exports in March which was a decrease of $3.0 billion over February’s total. The exports total for March marked the lowest level since August 2006.  March also saw a reduction in imports as it totaled $151.2 billion worth of imports compared with $152.8 billion in February for a decrease of $1.6 billion for the month.

The U.S. trade deficit with China increased in March with a $15.6 billion shortfall after a deficit of $14.2 billion in February. Other notable U.S. trade deficits were with the European Union at a $4.4 billion, Mexico at $3.9 billion, Japan at $2.6 billion and OPEC at $2.4 billion. U.S. trade surpluses with other countries for March included Hong Kong at $1.5 billion, Australia at $1.1 billion, Singapore at $0.5 billion and Singapore at $0.5 billion.

Forex Market – US Dollar falling in Forex today.

The U.S. dollar has been falling lower in forex trading today from the beginning of the day at 00:00 GMT. The dollar has fallen versus the euro, pound, franc, aussie, kiwi and loonie while gaining versus the yen.

The euro has edged up slightly versus the dollar today as the EUR/USD has risen from today’s 1.3600 opening(00:00 GMT) to trading at approximately 1.3624 in the afternoon of the US trading session at 2:14pm EST according to currency data by Oanda.

The British pound has increased today versus the American currency as the GBP/USD has gone from the 1.5115 opening to trading at 1.5251 dollars per pound.

The dollar has fallen against the Japanese yen as the USD/JPY has declined  from its 97.30 opening to trading at 96.15 yen per usd. The dollar has edged up against the Canadian loonie dollar after opening at 1.1643 earlier today to trading later at 1.1648.

The USD is falling against the Swiss franc after the USD/CHF’s opening at 1.1082 to trading at the 1.1066 exchange rate.

The Australian dollar has advanced as the AUD/USD has gone from 0.7601 to trading at 0.7626 while the New Zealand dollar(NZD/USD) has increased from 0.6010 usd per nzd to trading at 0.6032.

EUR/USD Chart – The Euro advancing against the US Dollar in Forex Trading today and trading higher than its 200-day simple moving average above 1.3600(white).

By Fast Brokers

The EUR/USD is popping up towards March highs, exploding from our 3rd tier downtrend line as anticipated.  As we explained in our previous post, breaking through the 3rd tier was a key fundamental move.  Therefore, the EUR/USD should continue enjoy its upward momentum, at least until the psychological 1.40 area.  We wouldn’t be surprised to see the currency pair peak outside of March highs only to retrace in hesitation as bulls run out of steam.  In fact, the present leg up isn’t enjoying the strong volume we saw before, meaning investors could take some profits soon, indicating a pullback with congestion.

The EU has no economic releases today, so the EUR/USD is feeding off of the Cable’s positive energy.  The better than expected Manufacturing Production number out of Britain is exciting bulls, leading to a pop in both the EUR/USD and the S&P futures.  The fact that the EUR/USD is tagging along for the ride is revealed by a sharp pullback in the EUR/GBP.  Both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD have broken free of our last-resort downtrend lines, further supporting our bullish outlook.  The EU region will remain relatively quiet on the news front until Friday, when it releases German Prelim GDP.  Until then, the EUR/USD should tag along with the Cable and U.S. equities in a positive correlation while registering comparatively muted gains should all move to the upside.

Fundamentally, we find resistances of 1.3735, 1.3777, 1.3837, 1.3868, and 1.3918.  To the downside, we see supports of 1.3702, 1.3674, 1.3646, 1.3626, and 1.3598.  The 1.35 area serves as a psychological cushion with 1.40 acting as a psychological barrier.  The EUR/USD is currently exchanging at 1.3695.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers

The Cable is climbing higher with a purpose, leaving 1.50 in its past as it takes full advantage of its upward momentum.  Bulls are encouraged as positive data continues to roll in from Britain.  Yesterday’s RICS House Price Balance release only reconfirmed what we saw the last two weeks, a stabilization in home prices.  Since the economic crisis began in the housing sector, an upward slope in prices gives hope that the worst may be behind us.  The key for the GBP/USD’s rally today is the much better than expected Manufacturing Production number.  Manufacturing Production has recovered to its highest level since June 2008 and in the process reached a respectable, pre-crisis level.  Meanwhile, the Cable has blown by our key, last defense downtrend line while leaving 1.50 behind.  Therefore, we maintain our medium-term bullish outlook for the aforementioned reasons.

While we maintain bullish on the Cable, the currency pair could encounter some headwinds in the near-term as it approaches January 09’ highs.  Though this barrier isn’t likely to kill the Cable’s uptrend, it could stall the rally temporarily should the bulls run out of energy.  Therefore keep a close eye on volume.  If action should die down, the GBP/USD could experience a near-term pullback and consolidation.

The BOE will keep the news flowing this week with Claimant Count Change (CCC), Average Earnings Index, and the BOE Inflation Report hitting the newswires in Wednesday’s trading session.  The CCC will be watched closely since April’s number revealed a surprisingly swift drop, indicating an improving employment market.  Therefore, volatility could easily pick up should the numbers surprise analysts in either direction.

Britain will release its BRC Retail Sales Monitor and RICS House Price Balance late in Monday’s session followed by Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance on Tuesday.  Therefore, we could see some reasonable volatility over the next 24 hours.

Fundamentally, we find resistances of 1.5322, 1.5374, 1.5438, 1.5526, and 1.5576.  To the downside, we see supports of 1.5256, 1.5213, 1.5158, 1.5114, and 1.5059.  1.50 serves as a key psychological cushion with 1.55 acting as a psychological barrier. The GBP/USD is currently exchanging at 1.5295.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers

The USD/JPY continues to fill out its right shoulder on discouraging volume.  The fact volume hasn’t picked up is limiting the ability of the USD/JPY to propel through the top of its right shoulder towards 100.  The USD/JPY is mysterious since it still hasn’t participated in the broad equity rally, serving as the cautionary flag among economic recovery optimists.  Normally positively correlated, the fact the USD/JPY hasn’t followed suit is disconcerting.  The USD/JPY snuck below our 2nd tier downtrend line and is playing with fire.  If April lows don’t hold then we could see a sizeable near-term selloff.  However, we recognize the significance of 100, and putting this level in the rear-view mirror would symbolize full investor confidence in a broad, global economic recovery.  Due to the mixed performance of the USD/JPY, we have a neutral stance.

Japan has a couple news events this week, including BOJ Governor Shirakawa addressing the public on Wednesday followed by Core Machinery Orders on Thursday.  Core Machinery Orders showed significant improvement with a surprise to the upside last month, so it will be interesting to see if the data point can continue to show improvement.  Since Core Machinery Orders are forward-looking and indicative of the outlook of Japanese exporters and manufacturers, this release could be a market-mover.

Fundamentally, we maintain resistances of 97.32, 97.98, 98.67, 99.20, and 99.79.  To the downside, we see supports of 96.33, 95.58, 95.12, 94.50, and 93.66.  The 100 level serves as a key psychological barrier with 95 acting as a psychological cushion.  The USD/JPY is currently exchanging at 97.09.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Adam Hewison

Intra-day charts can find low risk entry points in any market.

In this short video, I will show you how to use intra-day charts to time low-risk entry points in any market that has an established trend. In this example, I am looking at a 30-minute chart of July crude oil (CL.N09). With all of my indicators in a positive trend for crude oil, I am looking for low risk entry levels where we can add to, or institute new positions.

This video will demonstrate how to move into a market even if you have missed the initial buy/sell signal.

See the New Video here…

You can view this new video with my compliments. There are no registration requirements. Please enjoy and give your feedback on our blog. Thank you.

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

Source: ForexYard

The most notable event to take place in the forex market yesterday appears to have been the lack of any significant movement by the major currencies. As stock markets witnessed a downward correction yesterday, the forex world’s latest series of volatile spikes came to an end and most currencies leveled-off. As market news today is anticipated to be much busier, this day of rest in forex may come to an end and we could see a return to the sharp movements witnessed at the end of last week.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Volatility Calms as Markets Falter

The Dollar experienced a mild trading session in yesterday’s trading. The USD experienced a relatively flat day as it steadily rose against all of its major currency pairs, except for the Japanese Yen. There was a quiet day of news from the U.S. as there were no economic data releases on the calendar. However, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke about the state of the U.S. economy and the stress test for banks. He pointed out specifically that he was pleased with banks for raising capital. Investors were optimistic as he said that additional capital from the Federal Reserve will be provided if needed.

Despite this positive news from Bernanke, the stock market in the U.S. and around the world experienced heavy losses. However, part of this may be the start of a correction to the global stock market rally in recent weeks. As a result, the Dollar gained against most of its major currency pairs. The USD took 70 pips from the EUR to close at 1.3591 and a healthy 125 pips from the Pound to close at 1.5095. However, against the JPY, the Dollar lost 100 pips, extending its 3 day loss vs. the Japanese currency. The USD gained against the former 2 currencies due to fears of economic instability.

Today we can expect a higher amount of volatility and instability when it comes to trading with the Dollar and its main currency crosses. This may be even more so due to a heavy schedule of economic data releases and the ambitious economic recovery plan of President Barack Obama. The Trade Balance figures will be published at 12:30 GMT, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism figures are expected to be released at 14:00 GMT, and the Federal Budget Balance results are scheduled to be published at 18:00 GMT. Positive figures may help spur a stock market rally. At the same time, the Dollar may go bearish, as investor fears dissipate and the global economy continues its slow recovery.

EUR – EUR Stumbles Against Dollar

The European currency stumbled against the Dollar in Monday’s trading, ending its 3 day winning streak against the USD. This comes around the same time the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Jean Claude Trichet, stated that the main developed economies are starting to show signs of growth. For example, The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recently released figures showing that Britain, France, and Italy’s economies recorded some growth in the previous month. However, Germany continues to lag behind in negative territory. This may be one of the factors that could prevent the EUR from gaining the long-term confidence of investors.

As long as Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is deep in the red there will continue to be a prolonged burden on the Euro-Zone and its currency. The EUR slipped 70 pips vs. the Dollar to finish yesterday’s trading at 1.3591. The EUR slid by a dramatic 200 pips vs. the JPY to 132.23. The 2 reasons for these results are the overvalued EUR/JPY as of late, and the safe-haven bullish JPY. The Japanese currency also experienced similar behavior against the Pound as fears grew yesterday. The EUR/GBP rate rose by a moderate 30 pips, as traders continue to weigh in on the health of the British and Euro-Zone economies.

In today’s forex trading, traders are advised to follow economic news releases from the Euro-Zone and Britain closely as the results will help determine the bullishness of the Pound and EUR in today’s trading. The most important news events from Britain are the release of the Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance figures at 8:30 GMT simultaneously. From the Euro-Zone, the most important news events are German Final CPI at 6:00 GMT and the speech by Budesbank President Axel Weber at 15:00 GMT. Forex traders are also advised to follow unexpected speeches by President Obama or Ben Bernanke, as this could have a strong impact on trading in the forex market for the main currencies.

JPY – JPY Gains Ground Versus Dollar

The JPY made moderate gains against the Dollar in yesterday’s trading as there was panic when global stock markets made heavy losses as a correction may be under way, and as the banking system continues to be unstable. The Yen was also boosted by the weak Japanese economic figures, prompting investors to put money into the Yen. Thus the Yen returned yet again to the forefront as a safe-haven currency. This was compounded by HSBC announcing that despite high profits, the coming year will be a tough. This helped push down other banking stocks, and stocks such as Sony, Toyota, and Mitsui, as they also lost some ground in Monday’s trading.

The Yen took nearly 100 pips away from the Dollar to close up 1% at 97.29. The JPY made large inroads into the EUR to close up nearly 200 pips at 132.23. The gains against the GBP were even more impressive at 250 pips to close at 147.08. This all comes about as the fears of economic uncertainty fail to disappear. Thus if there is a stock market correction in the coming weeks, then there is a likelihood that the Yen will continue its bullish trend in the medium-term. If this is the case, then within the next several days, the USD/JPY rate may hit below 96.00. As of today, traders are advised to follow the Current Account and Bank Lending data releases at 23:50 GMT.

Crude Oil – Oil Fails To Hit $60

Crude Oil yet again failed to hit the $60 mark as the commodity recorded a relatively flat session on Monday. It rose by a healthy 30 pips to $58.31 a barrel. Considering there was a global stock market slump yesterday, this was actually a good result. The reason why the price of Crude Oil continues to be solid lately is due to renewed investor’s confidence that the developed world is starting to show signs of economic recovery. This in turn translates into industry growth and increased demand for oil.

In order for the price of Crude to continue its bullish run the main global economies will need to continue to show positive signs. However, if by the 3rd quarter this is not the case, then Crude may start to slide below $50 a barrel again. In the meantime, it is advisable to follow economic news coming out of the U.S., Japan, and China very closely in order get an accurate picture of which direction the global economic situation is heading.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the RSI of the 4-hour chart, signaling a downward correction may still be relevant. The imminent bearish cross on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic supports this notion. Going short might be a wise choice today.

GBP/USD

The Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart appear to be tightening in expectation of a volatile movement. As the daily chart’s RSI shows the price of this pair floating in the over-sold territory, and as the recent bearish crosses on that chart’s Slow Stochastic demonstrate, we may be in for a sharp downward movement. Going short with tight stops might be a good strategy.

USD/JPY

The recent bearish run for this pair may be coming to an end. There appears to be a bullish cross on the 4-hour chart’s Slow Stochastic signaling upward movement is imminent. The price also appears to be floating in the over-sold territory on the 4-hour chart’s RSI. With a bullish cross also forming on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic, going long might not be a bad choice today.

USD/CHF

The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-sold territory on the RSI oscillator of the 4-hour and daily charts. As the Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart begin to tighten, the impending volatile movement may very well be in an upward direction. Going long might be a wise choice throughout the trading day.

The Wild Card – Crude Oil

After a few days of sustained upward movement, the price of this commodity now appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the RSI of the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts, signaling a downward correction is long overdue. There also appears to be fresh bearish crosses on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic, which signifies that forex traders may be capable of entering the impending downward correction at a great entry price by going short on this commodity today.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By GCI Fx Research

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The euro moved came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3555 level and was capped around the US$ 1.3670 level.   Traders dumped higher-yielding currencies like the common currency and British pound after a Wall Street Journal report indicated U.S. banks received concessions from the Federal Reserve ahead of the government’s report on the results of the banks’ stress tests.  The report indicated the results were watered down by the Fed, raising new questions about the actual health of U.S. financial institutions.  Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to speak on the results later today.  In eurozone data, French March industrial production was off 1.4% m/m and 16.1% y/y and Italian industrial production was off 4.6% m/m and 23.8% y/y.  Economists believe the eurozone economy will probably shrink more than previously thought with some forecasts calling for a 5% contraction this year, comapred with the previous 3.4% forecast.  European Central Bank President Trichet today reported economic growth is “around the inflection point in the cycle” and added “there has been a substantial improvement in the markets since mid-September (2008). But we have to remain very alert.  An exit strategy, or the path to a sustainable mode is absolutely of the essence. It’s an essential part of confidence today and has been a feature of this meeting (of global central bankers).”  EMU-16 GDP data will be released on Friday.  ECB member Ordonez was also cautiously optimistic, reporting “There are signs that the worst (of the economic slump)] was in the first quarter.  I would be slightly surprised if this enormously V-shaped curve that now almost appears to be the consensus forecast…materializes.”  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.2765 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥97.25 level and was capped around the ¥98.80 level.  Risk aversion returned to the market as traders reacted to press reports that U.S. banks’ stress tests results may have been watered down by the Federal Reserve following lobbying from banks.  The March leading index, coincident index, and April official reserves assets data will be released overnight.  The Nikkei 225 yesterday stock index climbed 0.20% to close at ¥9,451.98.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥132.05 level and was capped around the ¥134.80 level.  The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥146.75 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥87.70 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8235 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8250.

Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Canada’s New Housing Price Index decreased in March for the sixth straight month according to a report released today by Statistics Canada. The Canadian New Housing Price Index fell by 0.5 percent for March following a decline of 0.7 percent in February.  Market forecasts were expecting the 0.5 percent decline for the month. On an annual basis, house prices fell by 2.4 percent in March from the March 2008 level.

The areas with the highest monthly price decreases in March were Calgary and Edmonton with each showing a 1.2 percent price decline. Other notable monthly declines were seen in Vancouver and Victoria with decreases of 1.1 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively. St. John’s posted the highest monthly rate of increase in March with a 0.4 percent while Montreal and Quebec also showed house prices increases for the month.

On an annual basis, Edmonton registered the largest house price decline with a 12.3 percent fall while Saskatoon and Calgary also saw declines of 11.2 percent and 8.7 percent, respectively.  Vancouver’s prices declined by 7.8 percent year-over-year while Victoria house prices fell by 6.6 percent. On the positive side, St. John’s posted an annual increase of 20.8 percent and Regina house prices climbed 12.8 percent from March 2008.  Also showing notable house price increases year-over-year were Quebec with a 8.1 percent gain and Montreal which saw prices advance by 3.5 percent.

Canadian Dollar loses ground in Currency Trading.

The Canadian “loonie” dollar has been losing ground today in the currency trading. The U.S. dollar has advanced against the Canadian loonie as the USD/CAD gained from its 1.1496 opening at 00:00GMT to trading at 1.1645 at 3:48pm EST in the US session according to currency data from Oanda.

The euro has gained against the loonie as the EUR/CAD trades at the 1.5830 level after opening the day at 1.5698.  The loonie has also managed to trade lower versus the Japanese yen today as the CAD/JPY has fallen to the 83.62 yen per loonie level after opening at 85.45.

The British pound has gained versus the loonie as the GBP/CAD has climbed to the 1.7617 level after opening the day at 1.7498.

The Australian dollar is higher against the loonie as the AUD/CAD pair trades at 0.8852 from today’s opening rate of 0.8825 while the New Zealand dollar has also advanced as the NZD/CAD trades at 0.7029 from 0.7012 earlier today.

USD/CAD Chart – The US Dollar advancing higher today in currency trading(15-min. Chart) versus the Canadian Dollar.