Bank of Canada lowers interest rate by 25 basis points. Canadian Dollar falls in Forex Trading.

The Bank of Canada announced today that it had lowered its interest rate by 25 basis points from 0.50 percent to 0.25 percent and may hold the rate there for over a year. Today’s rate cut was unexpected as market forecasts were predicting the BOC was going to hold the rate steady. The BOC has now lowered the interest rate by 425 basis 250150blueglobe3points since December 2007 to its present record low level.  The BOC said that the interest rate may stay at 0.25 percent until the end of the second quarter of 2010 depending on the outlook for inflation as the BOC targets 2 percent inflation.

The BOC statement commented on the Canadian economic situation saying, “the recession in Canada will be deeper than anticipated, with the economy projected to contract by 3.0 per cent in 2009. The Bank now expects the recovery to be delayed until the fourth quarter and to be more gradual.”

The statement also said that the Bank is projecting GDP growth rates of 2.5 percent in 2010 and 4.7 percent in 2011 and that core inflation should fall in line with the 2 percent target by the third quarter of 2011.

Read the full BOC statement here.  The next BOC rate decision is scheduled for June 4th.

Canadian Dollar loses ground in Forex Trading.

The Canadian “loonie” dollar lost ground today in the forex market after the unexpected rate reduction announcement. The U.S. dollar has advanced against the Canadian loonie as the USD/CAD gained from its 1.2376 opening at 00:00GMT to trading at 1.2395 at 11:35am EST in the US session according to currency data from Oanda. The USD/CAD reached an intraday high of 1.2505 before retreating lower.

The euro has also gained against the loonie as the EUR/CAD trades at the 1.6073 level after opening the day at 1.6012 and reached an intraday high of 1.6161.  The loonie has managed to shed early losses versus the Japanese yen to trade higher today as the CAD/JPY has edged up to the 79.48 yen per loonie level after opening at 79.38.

The British pound has gained versus the loonie as the GBP/CAD has climbed to the 1.8154 level after opening at 1.7997.

The Australian dollar is higher against the loonie as the AUD/CAD pair trades at 0.8779 from today’s opening rate of 0.8684 while the New Zealand dollar has also advanced as the NZD/CAD trades at 0.6956 from 0.6876 earlier today.

AUD/CAD Chart – The AUD/CAD advancing higher today in forex trading after falling yesterday(30-min. Chart).

Forex Chart
Forex Chart

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 4.21.09

By Fast Brokers

The EUR/USD rallied earlier today, resulting in some consolidation following the large selloff.  The strength in the EUR/USD came in reaction to better than expected consumer sentiment data in both Germany and the EU as a whole.  However, the rally is losing steam already as the currency pair gives into U.S. equities.  Earnings are flooding the U.S. market before the bell, and the results are negative for the most part.  Therefore, it seems the positive consumer sentiment numbers won’t be game changing for the EUR/USD.  Investors are more focused on future ECB policy with public discord among its members.  Additionally, if U.S. equities lose their footing, investors will likely attach the EUR/USD to the S&P futures since investors believe whatever happens in the U.S. will bleed over into the EU economy due to tight economic coupling.  The EUR/USD has already dropped through some key fundamental safety nets.  The currency pair is turning its back on the highly psychological 1.30 level, a large victory for the downtrend.  However, as we described in our previous posts, the EUR/USD has some solid supports built up from the condensed trading ranges between February and March.  Therefore, even if the near-term selloff should continue, there should be intense battlegrounds from 1.25-1.28.  The EUR/USD has found support in our previous 1st tier uptrend line and we created a new 1st tier to show the next uptrend cushion.  We maintain our negative stance on the EUR/USD for the time being since the S&P futures look like they have more room to give to the downside.  However, the EUR/USD could experience relative strength if U.S. equities proceed to selloff due to the better expected consumer sentiment data.  Fundamentally, we maintain our supports of 1.2919, 1.2876, 1.2833, and 1.2800 with fresh bottom-end of 1.2756.  To the topside, our 1.2953 support turns resistance while we hold our resistances of 1.3017, 1.3050, 1.3091, and 1.3126.  The 1.30 area still serves as a psychological barrier with 1.25 becoming a key psychological cushion.  The EUR/USD is currently exchanging at 1.2927.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 4.21.09

By Fast Brokers

The Cable’s intraday rally is fading with U.S. corporate earnings disappointing investors.  The positive correlation with U.S. equities is back in action so the S&P futures should be watched closely.  The Cable is experiencing a little strength since Britain’s CPI came in line with analyst expectations.  However, although the CPI number met expectations, it was not positive by any accounts.  Britain’s CPI has dipped below 3% for the first time since May 2008 and the trend is clearly downward sloping.  Dropping consumer prices raises the fear of inflation, which has been picking up in the U.S. and EU as well.  Declining prices erode the profit margins, and ultimately result in higher unemployment if the prices fall to a level that significantly impacts sustainability of a particular company.  Today’s earnings report from Tesco, Europe’s second largest retailer, reflects the toll declining consumption and lower prices are having on companies.  Tesco released its weakest earnings in 15 years, and confirmed the use of lower prices in an effort to attract cash-strapped consumers.  Today’s events take the wind out of the Cable’s sails, contradicting the recovery in economic data we saw earlier this month.  However, as with the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD has several foreseeable uptrend supports to the downside, making the path lower layered with obstacles.  Although the Cable dipped below our 2nd tier uptrend line, the currency pair is battling back above as we speak.  The more significant fundamental development made yesterday was a decline below the psychological 1.45 level.  Even though the GBP/USD recovered quickly, the level has been breached, setting the plate for another near-term selloff.  Our 1st tier downtrend line and 2nd tier uptrend line will reach an inflection point soon, meaning we could see high volatility throughout the rest of the week.  Investors will be eager to see Britain’s Claimant Count Change release tomorrow.  Fundamentally, we maintain resistances of 1.4579, 1.4612, 1.4677, 1.4730, and 1.4770.  The 1.50 level remains a key psychological barrier while 1.45 serves as a psychological cushion.  To the downside, we hold supports of 1.4532, 1.4478, 1.4438, 1.4391, and 1.4362.   The GBP/USD is currently exchanging at 1.4555.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

USD/JPY Daily Commentary or 4.21.09

By Fast Brokers

The USD/JPY has slid below our 1st tier uptrend line as 100 slowly fades into the distance.  The USD/JPY will need to rebound soon if it wants to hold onto the uptrend, or the currency pair may bow to its deadly downtrend due to its complacency.  A decisive move could come in the next 24 hours with Japan releasing its Trade Balance amid a sea of earnings from U.S. corporations.  The long-awaited battle with 100 has surely been drawn out, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see volatility spring to life any day now.  That being said, the uptrend is holding on by a thread, reflecting the fragility of the moment.  The USD/JPY should ultimately succumb to its positive correlation with U.S. equities.  Investors may return to the Yen as a safe haven if a second wave of the economic crisis hits the shores of America.  The fundamentals of the S&P futures aren’t encouraging as far its uptrend is concerned, meaning that a return to the downtrend for the USD/JPY could be imminent.  Fundamentally, we hold our resistances of 99.06, 99.79, 100.28, 100.71, and 101.44.  To the downside, we maintain our supports of 98.16, 97.59, 97.11, 96.33, and 95.55.  The USD/JPY is currently exchanging at 98.10.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

Recession Fears Reignite Safe Haven Buying

Source: ForexYard

Drops in U.S. equity markets rattled investors as both the Dollar and the Yen benefited from traders unwilling to take on further risks. The price of Crude Oil also plunged due to further signs the U.S. economy has yet to turn the corner.

Economic News

USD – Drop in Equities Leads to a Higher Dollar

The Dollar continued its bullish run yesterday, appreciating for the 6th day in a row against the EUR as the pair reached a one-month low. Driving the Dollar’s gains were losses in U.S. equity markets which were sparked by renewed banking fears and worries of a delayed U.S. economic recovery. At the end of the day Monday, the EUR was at $1.2907 from 1.3008. The British Pound was at $1.4482 from 1.4470

The greenback appreciated during most of the day’s trading, but the gains accelerated after first quarter earnings reported from Bank of America sparked renewed tension in the banking sector. Heavy losses were seen in U.S. equity markets as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.56%. This prompted traders to move from positions of higher yielding currencies to more safe-haven bets such as the U.S. Dollar and the Japanese Yen.

The losses seen in the Dollar as the Fed unveiled its quantitative easing program have been erased as the Dollar experiences another bullish run under a period of less risk taking. Higher equity losses have reduced trader’s appetite for riskier currencies, lending strength to the Dollar. This trend could see its first reversal today as Treasury Secretary Geithner is scheduled to speak at 2:00pm GMT. Testimony from Geithner often leads to periods of high volatility in the forex market. The EUR/USD could strengthen above the 1.3000 mark again later today after his speech.

EUR – EUR Continues to Decline Against the Pound and Dollar

The EUR continues to weaken amid further loses in equity markets and reduced risk levels in the currency market. The EUR/USD has now shed all of its gains since the U.S. Federal Reserve began its program of quantitative easing 1-month ago. Some market analysts believe the depreciation of the EUR coincides with the strengthening of the corporate bond market that also occurred three weeks ago. For the past three weeks the EUR has shed 4% against the Dollar and 2% against the GBP.

This losing trend for the EUR versus the Pound could continue today as key economic data is due to be released from both the Euro-Zone and Britain. German ZEW Economic Sentiment is forecasted to make a large improvement from the previous reading while important inflation data will be eyed from England. Yearly CPI is measured against the target rate of inflation set by the Bank of England (BoE). The BoE appears to be ahead of the curve in setting monetary policy. The inflation numbers may come in line and help to strengthen the Pound today, perhaps to the 0.8825 level.

JPY – Less Risk Taking Helps the Yen Rise Across the Board

The Japanese Yen was a big benefactor from yesterday’s flight to safety as the JPY made considerable gains against its major crosses. Declines in U.S. equities had traders scrambling to readjust their positions as market participants sold higher yielding currencies for the safety of the Japanese Yen. This sank the USD/JPY to 97.78 from 99.30. The GBP/JPY fell to 141.64 from 146.69. The EUR/JPY also dropped to 126.21 from 129.29.

Two scenarios could play out in the trading of the Yen today. If declines in equity markets continue for the second day in a row, these may again lower trader’s appetite for riskier currencies and boost the Yen. However, yesterday’s gains may be short lived due to the release of the Japanese Trade Balance. This economic indicator may show worse than expected results as the Japanese export industry has been severely hurt during the economic recession. Past indicators have shown export numbers dropping dramatically. This has the potential to weaken the Yen in the short term horizon.

Oil – Oil Plunges on Renewed Economic Concerns

The price of Crude Oil plunged today on fears of a deepening economic recession in the U.S. The dramatic sell-off occurred after the release of first quarter earnings from Bank of America. The day ended with the price of Crude Oil trading at $48.64. This was 7% lower than today’s opening price.

The sell-off was very characteristic of traders fleeing riskier investments for those that are considered safe havens. Currencies such as the Dollar, the Japanese Yen, and commodities such as Gold and Silver experienced sharp appreciation yesterday. Such a sharp drop in price may have left Crude Oil in an oversold position. The $50 mark may leave some room for profits in Oil trading.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-sold territory on the daily chart’s RSI indicating an upward correction may be imminent. The upward direction on the 4-hour chart’s Momentum oscillator also supports this notion. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

GBP/USD

The hourly chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, the 4 hour chart’s RSI is already floating in the over-sold territory, suggesting an upward correction may be imminent. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

USD/JPY

The typical range trading on the hourly chart continues. The daily chart Slow Stochastic is floating in neutral territory. However, the pair currently sits near the bottom border of the 4 hour chart’s RSI, suggesting an upward correction may be imminent. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

USD/CHF

There is a fresh bearish cross forming on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic indicating a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. The downward direction on the 4-hour chart’s Momentum oscillator also supports this notion. When the downward breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

The Wild Card – Crude Oil

Oil prices have dropped significantly yesterday and peaked at $ 48.60 per barrel. However, on the 4 hour chart RSI is floating in an oversold territory suggests that a bullish correction is impending. This might be a great opportunity for forex traders to enter the trend at a very early stage.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)

By GCI Fx Research

The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2885 level and was capped around the US$ 1.3060 level.  The common currency moved lower after European Central Bank President Trichet firmly telegraphed next month’s rate probable 25bps rate cut to 1.00% from 1.25%.  He added the ECB “has decided already to embark on non-standard measures to cope with the situation since mid-September 2008.”  Many dealers believe the ECB may enact new quantitative easing policies from next month.  Traders are also talking about the Obama administration’s bank stress tests.  Rumours suggest the results will be released on 4 May and that there will be no major surprises regarding the nineteen largest U.S. banks.  Data released in the U.S. today saw the March index of leading economic indicators decline 0.3%, the ninth consecutive decline.  In eurozone news, German ZEW investor confidence data will be released tomorrow followed by eurozone purchasing management data on Thursday and Friday’s Ifo business sentiment data.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3100 figure.

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥97.80 level and was capped around the ¥99.40 level.  Risk aversion returned to the markets overnight as traders shook off better-than-expected earnings data from U.S. financial giants amid new expectations the Obama administration may convert some of its bank shareholdings to equity rights.  Data released in Japan overnight saw the March leading index decline 0.3%, up from a revised -0.2% print in February.  These data suggest the Japanese economy may weaken in the near term.  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.19% to close at ¥8,924.75.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥126.15 level and was capped around the ¥129.55 level.  The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥141.95 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥83.50 level.  The Chinese yuan depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8301 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8291.

The British pound fell sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.4500 figure and was capped around the $1.4810 level.  Cable came off on expectations that the forthcoming release of the U.K. government’s budget will significantly increase public borrowing. Chancellor of the Exchequer Darling may announce on Wednesday that public sector borrowing is increasing to as much as ₤175 billion in fiscal year 2009-2010.   CBI reported the U.K. economy will contract 3.9% this year and realize growth of just 0.1% in 2010.  Other data saw April Rightmove house prices up 1.8% m/m and decline 7.3% y/y.   Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4350 level.  The euro strengthened vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.8915 level and was supported around the ₤0.8795 level.

Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 4.20.09

By Fast Brokers

The 30 Year T-Bond futures are recovering from Friday’s large selloff that saw new April lows.  The strength in the 30 Year futures comes in reaction to the large selloff taking place on Wall Street today.  However, despite the present pop in the 30 Year futures, they have been exhibiting clear behavior of a downtrend.  Both near-term and medium-term downtrends are in play, as displayed by our 2nd and 3rd tier downtrend lines.  Despite the inherent negativity, the 30 Year futures still have February and March lows to fall back on.  Therefore, a major selloff should be avoided as long as these lows remain intact.  We’re keeping the massive rally of March 18 in the back of our minds.  We were expecting a follow through to the upside, but it hasn’t materialized yet.  The downtrend taking control despite the use of quantitative easing raises a red flag concerning the demand at Treasury auctions.  The use of quantitative easing is unprecedented in the U.S., so we expect odd behavior from the 30 Year and 10 Year futures over the medium-term.  Therefore, the overall correlation with equities isn’t very reliable.  However, the recent performance of the 30 Year futures could be displaying a forewarning message as far as the health of the U.S. economy is concerned.  Fundamentally, we find resistances of 127.28, 127.64, 127.89, 128.31, and 128.73.  To the downside, we hold our supports of 127.04 126.69, 126.27, and 125.90 with fresh bottom-end of 125.5.  The 30 Year T-Bond futures are presently trading at 127 02.5.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 4.20.09

By Fast Brokers

The EUR/USD has really deteriorated since Friday after falling below previous April lows.  The EUR/USD fell into a rapid decline from here, and is presently trading back below the highly psychological 1.30 level.  Though 1.30 has been broken, we wouldn’t be surprised to see some support around this area as investors take advantage of oversold conditions and hesitate leaving 1.30 behind.  Serious damage has been inflicted upon the Euro in reaction to dissent among the ECB.  The ECB continues to send mixed messages regarding its future monetary policy and the uncertainty is killing the EUR/USD.  Investors need a unified central back in the face of the global economic crisis.  Discontent among the ECB raises debate concerning whether a benchmark rate below 1% is in the not so distant future.  Though the EU has shown signs of improvement in economic data, economists agree the global economy remains in a fragile state.  If a second wave of crisis should hit, the EU could find itself exposed again to faltering Eastern European economies.  Adding to the downward pressure in the EUR/USD is another positive earnings report from a major U.S. financial, Bank of America.  The weakness in the EU economy relative to the present strength in America’s is appreciating the Dollar across the board.  On a more speculative front, we should consider what the EUR/USD’s freefall implies about U.S. equities.  Since the two have been positive correlating through the economic crisis, does the EUR/USD’s plunge indicate an approaching selloff in the S&P futures?  On an encouraging note for the EUR/USD, the currency pair has a ton of solid support to rely upon after building up a solid base from February through March.  Therefore, although the near-term fundamentals are negative, the EUR/USD has some considerable assistance to the downside to keep the overall uptrend intact.  We adjusted our 1st tier uptrend line to give investors a picture of where the force of the uptrend comes into play next.  Fundamentally, we find supports of 1.2953, 1.2919, 1.2876, 1.2833, and 1.2800.  To the topside, we see resistances of 1.3017, 1.3050, 1.3091, 1.3126, and 1.3162.  The 1.30 area still serves as a psychological cushion but could turn into a barrier shortly.  The EUR/USD is currently exchanging at 1.2967.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 4.20.09

By Fast Brokers

The Cable is getting clobbered after the CBI stated Britain’s economic growth could be worse than forecasted.  Furthermore, the CBI is urging its Chancellor not to commit more funds to economic stimulus and quantitative easing in the upcoming budget.  While one would like to believe the ease of quantitative easing would have a positive impact on the Pound, the opposite is occurring.  The Cable’s contraction in response to the news shows investors believe the CBI’s reluctance to encourage further use of liquidity to fight the economic downturn could do more harm than good to Britain’s economy.  With the BOE’s benchmark rate hovering near zero, the CBI is proposing taking away the only tool left to ease credit markets.  On the other hand, the CBI’s decision could be a sign of confidence that the worst of the economic crisis has been realized.  Like the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD’s uptrend has several foreseeable uptrend lines to prevent a real correction back into its long-term downtrend.  Furthermore, despite a pop in the EUR/GBP, the currency pair still has considerable forces in place towards the downside.  Therefore, the Cable has quite a few fundamental and correlative pieces helping out the bulls.  However, the GBP/USD sent a strong message by falling below our 3rd tier uptrend line and more near-term losses could be realized.  The big question will be whether the recent improvement in Britain’s economic data can continue.  Britain will return to the forefront on Tuesday with the release of CPI and RPI.  Fundamentally, we find resistances of 1.4579, 1.4612, 1.4677, 1.4730, and 1.4770.  The 1.50 level remains a key psychological barrier while 1.45 serves as a psychological cushion.  To the downside, we see supports of 1.4532, 1.4478, 1.4438, 1.4391, and 1.4362.   The GBP/USD is currently exchanging at 1.4573.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 4.20.09

By Fast Brokers

The Yen is strengthening slightly against the Dollar again, but the USD/JPY is presently finding strength in our 1st tier uptrend line.  Weakness in the USD/JPY reflects the selloff taking place on Wall Street premarket Monday morning.  With the bad news from Japan out of the way, the focus turns towards U.S. equities and corporate earnings, so the USD/JPY should exhibit a positive correlation with the S&P futures for the time being.  As we stated previously, the USD/JPY’s uptrend is young and fragile.  Therefore, the uptrend lines for the currency pair to fall back on are few in number.  Hence, despite the Dollar’s recent strength and attack at 100, the uptrend could easily crack should U.S. equities falter.  We’ve got multiple downtrend lines bearing down on price.  Therefore, if the USD/JPY should drop below our 1st tier uptrend and downtrend lines, we could witness a sharp, near-term correction.  On the opposite side of the coin, life remains in the uptrend and a continuation of a path to the upside is certainly possible.  Keep a close eye on this currency as volatility could pick up, particularly to the downside.  Fundamentally, we see resistances of 99.06, 99.79, 100.28, 100.71, and 101.44.  To the downside, we find supports of 98.16, 97.59, 97.11, 96.33, and 95.55.  The USD/JPY is currently exchanging at 98.46.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.