Month: April 2009

By Fast Brokers

The EUR/USD is strengthening after yesterday’s large losses in the wake of a better than expected trade balance number out of Germany coupled with encouraging German factory orders data.  Germany’s trade balance seems to be bottoming out, indicating stabilization in its export industry.  Though Germany’s factory orders data came in below analyst expectations, the number shows a vast improvement from 2009’s previous releases.  Germany and France are the heavy-weights in the EU economically, so signs of improvement in German production is welcoming news for a beleaguered EUR/USD.  The EUR/USD has caught the brunt of the pullback in U.S. equities since Trichet and the ECB offered little certainty concerning future monetary policy shocks.  The positive data is allowing the EUR/USD to rally from oversold conditions as the S&P futures find strength in their key psychological 800 level.  Consequently, the currency pair has managed to stay above March 30 lows and is propelling from our 1st tier uptrend line.  As a result, the uptrend has been saved, for now.  We could see a nice pop in the EUR/USD as our trend lines collide, signifying the uncertainty prevalent in the marketplace.  However, the currency pair may wait for U.S. equities to commit to an uptrend or crash back into their downtrend before it makes another real directional move.  The heightened volatility we are witnessing stems from the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing announcement, and we don’t expect the wild ride to slow any time soon.  Fundamentally, we maintain our supports of 1.3223, 1.3192, 1.3162, 1.3126 and 1.3088.  To the topside, we hold our resistances of 1.3271, 1.3323, 1.3351, 1.3375 and 1.3413.  The 1.35 area acts a psychological barrier again with 1.30 serving as a key psychological cushion.  The EUR/USD is currently exchanging at 1.3245.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers

The Cable continues to show relative strength on the back of surprisingly positive data surfacing from Britain over the past couple weeks.  The GBP/USD kept its cool yesterday despite the broad selloff in U.S. equities and the Cable is running with the EUR/USD and U.S. equities Wednesday morning.  We expect to see the Cable’s strength continue as long as Britain’s data outperforms and its major financial institutions stay out of the headlines.  If U.S. equities and the EUR/USD head north today, the GBP/USD should follow.  On the other hand, if U.S. equities selloff again, we may see the Cable hold up once more.  However, we can’t forget the importance of the financial industry to Britain’s economy.  Therefore, if U.S. banks hit another roadblock, the GBP/USD may have no choice but to head lower.  Speculation set aside, the Cable is in great shape for the time being.  It sits comfortably above our 1st tie uptrend line with no downtrend line in sight.  On the other hand, the failure of the GBP/USD to eclipse February highs and 1.50 is a cause for concern, and we’ll keep this in mind.  If the Cable can climb back above March highs today we could see a nice short-term pop.  Even though Britain is quite on the news front today, the Pound could come alive tomorrow with a PPI release coupled with a BOE rate decision.  Analysts are expecting the BOE to hold the benchmark rate at .50%.  Fundamentally, we maintain resistance of 1.4730 with additional resistances hanging at 1.4770, 1.4834, 1.4883 and 1.4946.  The 1.50 level serves as a key psychological barrier while the 1.45 area acts as a psychological cushion. To the downside, we hold our supports of 1.4676, 1.4612, 1.4571, 1.4538 and 1.4484.   The GBP/USD is currently exchanging at 1.4702.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers

The USD/JPY is wrestling with the almighty 100 level again today after briefly dropping below.  The USD/JPY strengthened slightly after Japan released a better than excepted trade balance.  However, the optimism is faint since a record decline in imports is responsible for the improvement.  Therefore, consumers are tightening their budgets as the economic downturn picks up steam.  Japan continues to be the hardest hit in the global economic crisis.  Export demand has been cut in half with consumers world-wide losing their taste for durable goods.  Though the recent rally in the USD/JPY does provide some relief for the Japanese economy, the currency pair is still trading 20% below June 2007 levels.  However, a stabilizing American economy could help push the USD/JPY higher since the currency pair is being valued by the comparative performance of both economies.  That being said, the USD/JPY has three more downtrend lines to push through before it can yield substantial gains.  100 will continue to be a battle zone as U.S. equities struggle with their own demons.  If U.S. equities make another leg down, we would not be surprised to see the USD/JPY follow suit.  Japan will release Core Machinery Orders tonight.  The data is forward looking since corporate capital expenditure normally signifies expansion.  Analysts are expecting a decline of -6.8%.  Fundamentally, our 100.28 support turns resistance while we maintain our resistances of 100.71, 101.44, 101.98, and 102.50.  To the downside, we hold our supports of 99.79, 99.06, 98.16, and 97.59 with fresh bottom-end resting at 97.11.  The USD/JPY is currently exchanging at 99.99.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

Source: ForexYard

The European single currency came crashing on Tuesday after data showed the Euro-Zone economy recorded its deepest ever quarterly fall in the 4-quarter of 2008. As a result, the currency market moved back to the U.S currency after optimism regarding the European economy faded. The USD which is seen as a safer bet than others currencies in times of market stress will likely keep drawing demand as investors stay away from riskier assets.

Economic News

USD – USD Regains Lost Momentum from Under-Performing Stock Market

The USD has begun a moderate rally these past two days, starting from as high as 1.3575 against the EUR, the greenback is now trading near the 1.3175 price level. An even sharper price rally began this morning during the early trading hours when the release of poor stock data emerged from Wall Street. The negative economic outlook for first quarter stock performance has many traders returning to their safe-haven investments – namely, the U.S. Dollar.

After witnessing a sharp 70 point drop, the EUR/USD began to stabilize while maintaining its downward posture. Against the GBP, the greenback made similar gains, rising from 1.4950 yesterday to as high as 1.4682 in today’s early hours. Surprisingly, the USD saw no significant change in value versus the Japanese Yen, which may lend strength to the notion that the JPY is also being picked up as a potential safe-haven. So long as stocks and other equities continue to under-perform, due to the weakening global economy and rising metal prices, the USD may regain its recently diminished safe-haven status and return to levels not seen in over two weeks, perhaps to the 1.3000 price by the day’s end.

Looking over the economic calendar may lend some insight into how the USD will perform through the second half of this week. The ever-increasingly important report on Crude Oil Inventories is due to be released later today. If inventories continue growing it could signal a further lack of real growth in the economy and continue to push the USD higher throughout its pairs and crosses. On Thursday, of course, we will also see two highly important data releases: the US Trade Balance report and unemployment figures. Both are due to be released tomorrow at 12:30 GMT and will likely carry a heavy impact on the value of the Dollar.

EUR – EUR’s Recent Depreciation May Not End This Week

The EUR has apparently taken a hit from the recent rally in the U.S. Dollar, and not just against the USD. Dropping against all of its major currency rivals, the EUR is poised to suffer a significant loss through the rest of the trading week. Trading as high as 1.3575 against the USD this week, the EUR is currently losing momentum and may continue to drop from its current location to as low as 1.3000. The 16-nation currency is witnessing similar losses to the GBP and JPY as well.

Many analysts claim that the Euro-Zone’s primary currency is losing strength not because of an inherent weakness, but because the recent price rally was dependent on a resurgent stock market. As stocks and various other equities have experienced a sharp depreciation this week, the EUR’s rally has begun to implode in on itself. Unless stocks begin to rebound once more, the EUR will likely continue its depreciation as other currencies, such as the USD and JPY, regain their safe-haven trading status.

As negative data continues to emanate from the Euro-Zone’s regional economy, this consequential weakness for the EUR is apparently going to continue growing as well. The rest of this week’s economic news doesn’t appear to be offering any significant level of support either. With very few economic indicators being released during the second half of this week, there doesn’t appear to be much in the way of stopping this downward momentum in the various EUR trading pairs.

JPY – JPY Pares Losses and Stabilizes as it Regains Trader Confidence

Somewhat surprising for the market this week is a sudden resurgence of support for the JPY. While continuously losing ground to all of its currency rivals in recent days, the Yen now appears to be regaining a portion of its previous safe-haven strength. As world stock markets released poor 1st quarter data, the USD witnessed a sharp appreciation against all of its currency rivals, except for the JPY. Two of the possible explanations are either that the JPY was unaffected by a rallying USD, which seems unlikely, or the Yen also received a small boost from the search for safe-haven investments.

The island currency experienced a roughly 50 point increase against all of its major pairs and crosses, save the USD, which is currently trading at 99.70. With very little information being released regarding the Japanese economy this week, the news events surrounding world stock markets as well as the U.S. Dollar are likely going to lead the market through Friday and into next week. Because of the deterioration of world stock markets, there is a distinct possibility that low-yielding, safe-haven currencies, such as the USD and JPY, are going to begin regaining some of their recent losses through next week.

OIL – Demand for Crude Oil Continues to Fall; As Does its Price

It appears that the recent steps taken by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase the price of Crude Oil have begun to lose their momentum. After 4 consecutive days of losing value, the price of Crude Oil currently sits just below $48 a barrel and could retain this downward momentum. As economic growth continues to provide data which indicates a further slump in demand, and as the USD rallies from poor stock market data, Crude Oil may devalue even further through to next week.

As U.S. Crude Oil inventories have illustrated these past weeks, demand for this commodity has witnessed a solid deterioration. This inventories report, which is due to be released at 14:30 GMT today, may indeed indicate that demand has continued to fall and traders could be seeing a decreasing price of Crude Oil through Friday and into next week. A price of $46 may be seen by the week’s end.

Technical News

EUR/USD

There is a very distinct bearish channel forming on the hourly chart, as the pair is now floating in its lower section. In addition, all oscillators on the 4-hour chart are pointing down, suggesting that the downtrend might extend. Going short might be the right strategy today

GBP/USD

It seems that the Cable has limited its bullish correction after peaking at the 1.4941 level. And now, a bearish cross on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic indicates that the general downtrend might extend. Going short seems to be the preferable choice today

USD/JPY

The daily chart shows that the pair is currently range-trading within a restricted price range. However, as the RSI on the daily chart has dropped beneath the 70 line, it appears that bearish momentum might be arising. Going short with tight stops could be the right choice today.

USD/CHF

Ever since bottoming at the 1.1253 level, the pair has entered a very strong bullish trend and is currently traded around the 1.1490 level. And now, a flag formation on the 4-hour chart suggests that the bullish move has more room to go.

The Wild Card – GOLD

Gold prices are in the midst of a very strong downtrend, and an ounce of gold is currently traded for about $887. The daily chart shows that the current price has dropped beneath the Bollinger Bands’ lower border, indicating that the bearish move is still quite strong. This might be a good opportunity for forex traders to join a very popular trend.

Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

BY GCI Fx Research

€

The euro came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3225 level and was capped around the US$ 1.3420 level.  U.K. newspaper The Times reported the International Monetary Fund may forecast that banks’ toxic debts could reach US$ 4 trillion globally.  European Central Bank member Stark critically said the Group of Twenty’s decision to increase the usage of Special Drawing Rights is like “creating helicopter money for the globe.” The ECB reiterate it is not changing its requirements for countries to start using the euro, contrary to an International Monetary Fund report that calls for changes that would allow Central and Eastern European countries to qualify for euro usage under different terms.  A compromise being discussed may allow Central and Eastern European countries’ bonds to be accepted as collateral by the ECB in exchange for euro liquidity.  Data released in the eurozone today saw Q4 2008 gross domestic product downwardly revised to -1.6% from the previous reading of -1.5%.  A joint survey from Germany’s Ifo and France’s INSEE said the eurozone economy could contract 1.9% q/q in Q1 2009.  In U.S. news, Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes will be released tomorrow. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3100 figure.

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥99.85 level and was capped around the ¥101.10 level.  Bank of Japan’s Policy Board voted unanimously to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.1% so that the efficacy of previous monetary easing measures can be evaluated.  The central bank also kept its economic assessment unchanged for the month of April, repeating its statement that the economy “has deteriorated significantly” due to a “worsening in corporate profits and weakening domestic demand.”  Dealers are also awaiting details of the government’s proposed US$ 100 billion stimulus package that will be announced on Friday.  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.28% to close at ¥8,832.85.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥132.20 level and was capped around the ¥135.55 level.  The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥145.80 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥87.05 level.  The Chinese yuan depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8361 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8343.

₤

The British pound came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.4580 level and was capped around the $1.4775 level.  Data released in the U.K. saw February manufacturing output decline for the twelfth consecutive month, off 0.9% m/m and 13.8% y/y.  Also, February industrial production was off 1% m/m and 12.5% y/y.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4515 level.  The euro came off vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.8990 level and was capped around the ₤0.9115 level.

Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

The Reserve Bank of Australia announced that it had reduced its interest rate to its lowest standing since 1960 at 3.00 percent today. The RBA had held the 3.25 percent cash rate steady at its last meeting in March after slashing the rate by 100 basis points in each of its meetings in December and February.  The RBA has now slashed the interest rate by 425 basis points since September when the rate was 7.25 percent. Today’s rate cut was expected by the markets with most expectations of between a 25 point and 50 point reduction.

Glenn Stevens, RBA Governor of Monetary Policy, commented on the Australian economy in the report, “The Australian economy is contracting, though by less than those of its trading partners. Capacity utilisation has fallen from its peak, and will decline further over the rest of the year. With demand for labour weakening, growth in labour costs will probably also fall.  Hence inflation over the medium term is likely to be lower than it has been over the past two years.”

Australian dollar mostly higher in Currency Trading.

The Australian dollar has been gaining ground in currency trading against most of the major currencies today after the rate announcement. The Australian dollar has advanced versus the U.S. dollar to 0.7120 AUD per USD in the US at 3:36pm EST after opening at the exchange rate this morning of 0.7096(00:00 GMT).

The Aussie dollar has increased versus the Japanese yen with the AUD/JPY trading at 71.51 from today’s opening exchange rate of approximately 71.27 yen per aussie. The euro has also fallen versus the aussie today and the EUR/AUD trades at 1.8636 aussie per euro after opening the day at approximately 1.8831.

The aussie dollar has also advanced against the New Zealand kiwi as the AUD/NZD trades at 1.2386 kiwi per aussie after opening the day at at 1.2193. Meanwhile, against the Canadian dollar, the aussie has decreased from the 0.8822 opening rate to trading at 0.8807 later in the North American trading session.

AUD/NZD Chart – The Australian Dollar has advanced almost 200 pips today against the New Zealand Dollar in Forex Trading.

By Adam Hewison

This week, I want to share with you a chart pattern that the pro’s use everyday to great effect. The chart pattern we will be looking at, is one of my favorites as it has a high reliability factor.

The chart pattern in this short video is well known inside the professional trading community. However, outside of the pro circle it seems to be shrouded in mystery.

In this new 3 minute video, I peel away the layers of mystery and show you step-by-step how you can personally benefit from this chart pattern that occurs in all time frames.

What’s amazing to me about this chart pattern, is the fact that after over 3 decades of real world trading, it continues to repeat itself.

See the Video Here.

With that fact on our side, I think it’s a safe bet that this chart pattern is likely stick around for the next generation of traders.

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator of MarketClub.com

By Fast Brokers

The EUR/USD topped out at our 3rd tier uptrend line yesterday and is contracting quickly as U.S. equities look to open sharply lower for the second straight session.  Lacking economically fundamental reasons for dropping, the EUR/USD is reacting to psychological blows dealt by George Soros and the IMF.  Yesterday Soros reiterated his skepticism regarding the solvency of U.S. banks, and the IMF is rumored to announce it predicts that U.S. financials are exposed to over $3 trillion worth of toxic assets.  Additionally, the EUR/USD was already in a comparatively weak position against the Dollar as compared to most other major pairs due to the uncertainty regarding future ECB monetary policy.  The ECB is maintaining a loose policy stance by leaving the door open to possible currency intervention and quantitative easing if the economic environment should darken.  These factors combined are leaving the early April rally with a question mark as opposed to an exclamation point.  The EUR/USD failed to breach March highs and the currency pair has tumbled back below the psychological 1.35 mark.  The EUR/USD fell beneath our 1st tier downtrend line in the process.  On the bright side, the 1st tier uptrend line is alive, and April lows are intact.  However, the EUR/USD is suddenly throwing the whole idea of a lasting uptrend into doubt.  Therefore, the possibility remains that the economic storm returns and investors run to the Dollar for safety.  As a result, the uptrend and downtrends are squaring off once again with all eyes on the financial sector.  The chips remains in the corner for the uptrend for now since the reasons for the present pullback are psychologically motivated.  We won’t see any economic data from either the EU or the U.S. until tomorrow as focus shifts towards corporate earnings.  Fundamentally, we find supports of 1.3223, 1.3192, 1.3162, 1.3126 and 1.3088.  To the topside, we see resistances of 1.3271, 1.3323, 1.3351, 1.3375 and 1.3413.  The 1.35 area becomes a psychological barrier again with 1.30 serving as a key psychological cushion.  The EUR/USD is currently exchanging at 1.3271.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers

The Cable followed U.S. equities and the Euro lower yesterday and investor uncertainty returned concerning the state of financials.  However, the downward movements of the GBP/USD remain less exaggerated than the EUR/USD due to the consistent improvement in British economic data.  Today’s manufacturing and industrial production numbers reiterated this trend, as both came in encouragingly above analyst expectations.  Once again the relative strength of the Pound is revealed in the weakness of the EUR/GBP.  It appears as if the EUR/GBP could make a large leg down as the currency pair tests April lows and the psychological .90 level.  Consequently, the Cable sits comfortably above our 1st tier uptrend line and its psychological level of 1.45.  However, we must insert a note of caution.  The GBP/USD failed to breach February highs.  Hence, even though the uptrend is intact, this missed opportunity leaves open the door for the possibility of a retracement into its depressing medium-term downtrend.  Ultimately, the trend of the GBP/USD will rely on the performance of U.S. financials.  The financial industry comprises a large portion of Britain’s GDP.  Therefore, if U.S. banks do in fact encounter a new wave of troubles, British financials would be inextricably impacted and the Cable would have no choice to follow U.S. equities lower.  However, throwing caution to the wind, the uptrend is alive and well and the stance remains to the upside in both the GBP/USD and EUR/USD until we receive some game changing, economically fundamental events.  Fundamentally, we find resistance of 1.4730 with additional resistances hanging at 1.4770, 1.4834, 1.4883 and 1.4946.  The 1.50 level serves as a key psychological barrier while the 1.45 area acts as a psychological cushion. To the downside, we see supports of 1.4676, 1.4612, 1.4571, 1.4538 and 1.4484.   The GBP/USD is currently exchanging at 1.4702.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers

The USD/JPY topped out yesterday and is reencountering the key 100 level as we anticipated.  100 is such a critical psychological hurdle that it’s no surprise the currency pair is hesitating to leave it behind.  The BOJ kept its benchmark rate at 0.1% today with little to no wiggle room monetarily.  However, the BOJ announced the initiation of new, vague quantitative easing tactics to try and liquefy the Yen.  The announcement is having an inconsequential impact on the USD/JPY and its path is still highly reliant on the performance of the two economies.  The USD/JPY is sticking above 100 and March highs for now, a positive sign for the uptrend.  However, if U.S. equities should crumble under the pressure of financials, then the USD/JPY should reluctantly exercise its positive correlation with the S&P futures and follow suit.  That being said, the fresh near-term uptrend remains intact for now as the trends approach a face-off.  Though the U.S. won’t release any significant data, Japan will announce its Current Account late Tuesday and the BOJ Monthly Report Wednesday morning, giving investors a bird’s eye view of the economic data guiding the decisions of the BOJ.  Fundamentally, we find resistances of 100.71, 101.44, 101.98, 102.50, and 103.10.  To the downside, we see supports of 100.28, 99.79, 99.06, 98.16, and 97.59.  The USD/JPY is currently exchanging at 100.33.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.