By Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist (Gulf & MENA), ForexTime
Investors and traders were cautiously awaiting the market reaction to the violent protests in the US, as clashes between protesters and police spread out across American cities following the killing of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis police.
US stocks futures indices initially declined at the open with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling more than 200 points, but it did not take long to recover with all major indices back into positive territory.
While riots and violent protests may harm economic activity, especially given that many states have just begun unlocking their economies, investors do not seem to be concerned at this stage and believe the impact is insignificant on their portfolios. However, if protests begin to develop further and spiral out of control potentially leading to viral transmission of Covid-19, then we may see a different reaction in markets.
Upbeat economic data from China and no specific new measures against Hong Kong from Trump’s administration on Friday also helped set the positive mood in Asia. Despite China’s factory activity growing less than anticipated, it remained in positive territory at 50.6, with services and construction activity appearing to be strong enough to boost confidence in the world’s second largest economy. Non-manufacturing PMI rose to 53.6 in May, up slightly from April’s reading of 53.2 and construction activity rose 1.1 points to 60.8 in May from the previous month.
Asian stocks rallied across the board early Monday, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index leading the gains and surging more than 3%. MSCI Asia ex-Japan index jumped more than 2% supported by a 2.5% rally in Shenzhen stocks, while Australia’s ASX and South Korea’s Kospi were more than 1% higher.
Strong gains were not just limited to equities. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar is the best performing G10 currency today, surging more than 1.2% against the greenback to a three-month high of 0.6756. The price of iron ore, which hit a record high today, is also another factor helping the surge in the Aussie.
If markets are right in their assessment of the global economy and the worst is truly behind us, we may see further gains in commodity currencies and continued selling in the US dollar. Investors will need to keep a close eye on how the US protests develop over the coming days and whether they become more violent, leading to a reconsideration of the impact on economic activity.
The other two big events this week are Thursday’s ECB meeting and Friday’s US employment data. After the ECB projected an expected contraction of 5–12% in 2020, the key question is whether they will extend the asset purchase program and if so by how much, with consensus expecting an expansion by €500bn into June 2021. This meeting will further help investors assess their decisions in adding risk assets to their portfolios. Meanwhile in the US, the unemployment rate is expected to jump to near 20%, with 8 million additional jobs being lost. However, it is not the absolute figure that matters now, but the rate of change and I think at this stage, the initial jobless claims figures provides a better indication.
Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
Early in the summer of 2020, the British Pound is slowly growing against the USD, which is quite good after a depressing previous week. At the beginning of June, GBP/USD is mostly trading at 1.2403.
The Brexit negotiators got into another “ambush”, where their dialog stopped. The United Kingdom earlier announced that in order to agree on the trade deal with the European Union, the parties had to resolve fundamental contradictions. In June, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will personally chair the talks and one can be absolutely sure that they will be more aggressive and energetic.
London insists that all topical issues must be decided during the transition period, because the extension of the period will impose additional obligations on the United Kingdom, including financial.
As we can see in the H4 chart, GBP/USD is forming the structure of the fifth ascending wave towards 1.2450. Possibly, after reaching this level, the pair may correct towards 1.2262 and then grow towards 1.2360, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If later the price breaks the range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards to reach 1.2200; if to the upside – start another growth with the target at 1.2490. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving inside the histogram area, which implies further growth. Only after the line leaves the area, one may consider a new correction on the price chart.
In the H1 chart, GBP/USD also continues forming the fifth ascending wave. By now, it has reached the short-term target of this wave at 1.2400. Possibly, the pair may correct towards 1.2325 and then grow to complete the wave at 1.2450. After that, the instrument may resume falling to return to 1.2325. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is falling to break 50. After that, the line may continue moving to reach 20 and then start a new rising movement towards 80.
Disclaimer
Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
Markets kicked off the new month in mixed fashion, as protests in major US cities over the weekend threaten the nascent post-pandemic recovery in the world’s largest economy. The outbreak of violence stateside adds another layer of uncertainty to global investors who are already contending with the risk of heightening US-China tensions. These downside risks are preventing riskier assets from going off on a rally, as investors curtail their optimism that the worst of the global pandemic is now behind us.
Asian stock and currency markets are a sea of green on Monday, while Dow futures erased earlier losses in a sign of resilient risk appetite. The gains in Asian equities were led by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, which climbed 2.5 percent at the open after US President Donald Trump stopped short of imposing fresh sanctions over China.
Gold keeps upward trend intact
However, there remains a prevailing sense of caution, with Gold sticking to its upward trend, having registered higher highs and higher lows on the hourly charts since May 27. However, Bullion’s advance is being resisted for the time being at the $1740 psychological line, as was the case on May 22. However, should the upward momentum continue, driven by risk aversion, then a meaningful breach above $1740 appears inevitable with a path towards $1765 then in its sights.
Oil traders await OPEC+ meeting
Another major commodity is also showing a tinge of restraint, with Brent Oil hovering around the mid-$37 range at the time of writing. Brent futures are holding on to most of their 33.66 percent gain in May, its first monthly advance so far this year, as investors assess the next direction for Oil prices.
Should the US protests persist and serve as a drag on economic activity, that could weigh on demand for the commodity. However, with more of the world reopening, coupled with reports that OPEC+ could move its meeting earlier to June 4 and extend their production cuts, such factors could translate into more lift for Oil prices.
Until there is some much-needed clarity, investor sentiment is expected to continue blowing hot and cold, which is lending to the current contrasts across the various asset classes.
Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
Global equities advance today despite escalating US-China tensions as economies reopen all over world. Investors’ risk appetite was buoyed Friday by President Trump’s announcement he would quit World Health Organization and revoke Hong Kong’s economic privileges, but abstained from imposing new tariffs on China.
Forex news
Currency Pair
Change
EUR USD
+0.19%
GBP USD
+0.97%
USD JPY
-0.17%
The Dollar weakening is accelerating today . The live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, lost 0.15% Friday as Fed chair Powell said risks to growth and inflation remain tilted to the downside. GBP/USD and EUR/USD continued climbing Friday and are higher currently. USD/JPY joined AUD/USD’s continued climbing on Friday but has reversed lower currently after news Japanese firms raised spending on plant and equipment in the first quarter. Australian dollar’s climb against the dollar is intact.
Stock Market news
Indices
Change
Dow Jones Index
-0.53%
Nikkei Index
+0.95%
Australian Stock Index
+1.51%
US equity markets are rising today after ending mixed on Friday. Few companies are scheduled to report quarterly results today including UnitedHealth. Stock indexes in US ended mixed on Friday while recording solid weekly gains: the three main US stock indexes recorded daily returns ranging from -0.06% to +1.3% while booking weekly gains ranging from 1.8% to 3.8%. European stock indexes are rising currently after a pullback on Friday after European Union Trade Commissioner told Thursday that the bloc was willing to move forward when Brexit negotiations with the UK resume next week. Asian indexes are rising today led by with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index which jumped 3.4%. Mainland Chinese stocks are higher after China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index and the private Caixin China manufacturing purchasing managers index both showed factory activity still expanding in May.
Commodity Market news
Commodities
Change
Brent Crude Oil
+0.51%
WTI Crude
+0.15%
Brent is extending gains today. Oil prices ended higher last session as President Trump did not withdraw from the US-China phase one trade deal despite rising tensions. Prices rose after Baker Hughes report on Friday that the number of active US rigs drilling for oil dropped by 15 to 222 last week, the eleventh consecutive drop in a row. The US oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures ended higher Friday: July WTI rose 5.3% but is down currently. August Brent crude closed 5% higher at $37.84 a barrel on Friday.
Gold Market News
Metals
Change
Gold
+0.35%
Gold prices are retracing lower today. August gold gained 1.4% to $1751.70 an ounce on Friday.
Note: This overview has an informative and tutorial character and is published for free. All the data, included in the overview, are received from public sources, recognized as more or less reliable. Moreover, there is no guarantee that the indicated information is full and precise. Overviews are not updated. The whole information in each overview, including opinion, indicators, charts and anything else, is provided only for familiarization purposes and is not financial advice or а recommendation. The whole text and its any part, as well as the charts cannot be considered as an offer to make a deal with any asset. IFC Markets and its employees under any circumstances are not liable for any action taken by someone else during or after reading the overview.
By The Gold Report – In conversation with Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable, Jayant Bhandari of Capitalism and Morality offers his take on what the post-COVID-19 world will look like.
Maurice Jackson: Joining us for a conversation is Jayant Bhandari, the founder of Capitalism & Morality, and a highly sought-out advisor to institutional investors.
Jayant, there are a lot of mixed, contentious emotions regarding COVID-19. Irrespective of one’s position, it’s incumbent for us all to prepare for how the world will function going forward. Let’s discover which parts of the world, and how readers may thrive in a post coronavirus world.
Sir, you recently wrote a musing entitled “What the Post Coronavirus World Looks Like.” In this piece, you outlined a number of distinctions that may create a great divide between East Asia, the West and Third World countries. From a 30,000-foot perspective, who do you see coming out as the winners, when and if the world returns to some aspect of normalcy, and why?
Jayant Bhandari: Readers really need to keep emotions out of business. We have to be attached to objectivity to be able to understand what is the right action to take. In my view, from what I have seen happening, East Asia will emerge out as among the most successful places in the world after COVID-19 is over.
In fact, East Asia is already emerging. You can see that in Taiwanthere were virtually no cases and they cleaned up the place very quickly. Pretty much the same happened with South Korea, Japan and Singapore. Hong Kong suffered a bit, but they took very strong, good, quick actions and got mostly rid of the virus, or at least brought it under control in a way that it does not affect their economy.
China has also managed to clean up the virus to a very large extent. Now, I am [not] concerning myself about the culpability that China [has] with the virus, I’m just talking about the economy. These countries will emerge successful from the virus.
I love China for its people and for the changes China has been going through. What I might not have always an appreciation or respect for is the Chinese government. I think China will emerge perfectly fine. The investment world can no longer ignore China, as it is the fastest growing major economy in the world.
I am very keen on investing in East Asia because I see very limited downside risk and a lot of upside, due in part because a lot of share prices, along with commodity prices, have suffered because investors have lowered their expectations, particularly of the growth in China, which I think is wrong.
China will continue to grow. It will suffer for a few more months but it will emerge out successful. On the other hand, the Western countries are countries that are rooted to the concepts of liberty and Christianity. And that is why the Western countries have such a strong moral framework. In fact, East Asia is successful to the extent that it feeds off the moral and rational fabric that the Western countries have put together.
Maurice Jackson: How about the Third World?
Jayant Bhandari: Unfortunately, five out of the 7.5 billion humans live in Third World countries, which are Africa, the Middle East, the Indian subcontinent and Latin America. And these countries, I think, are rapidly on the path to implosion.
But also, because the Third World has horrible government leadership, one can see chaos emerging everywhere in the Third World. I am afraid and confident that Malthus and Darwin will wake up and walk hand in hand to remove millions of people in the Third World. And I’m absolutely sure that will happen within the next few years, if it has already not started. So my biggest fear is, what is going to happen to the 5 billion people that are in the Third World. I expect there will be a massive humanitarian crisis, never seen in human history.
Maurice Jackson: Jayant, for someone new to our conversation, what is the distinction between Third World economies and emerging economies?
Jayant Bhandari: There is nothing like emerging markets. There’s only one emerging market, which is China. The understanding of China in the Western world is very negative. And that is primarily because of the way China is portrayed in the West. Thirty years ago, China once was compared with Uganda and Tanzania or Rwanda. Today, China is consistently compared with the U.S., which is where fallacy lies. You have changed the yardstick on how you understand and measure China. China was a Third World country, and China has emerged very, very rapidly in the last three decades. China is still not the U.S.; China will not be the U.S. for the next 30 or 50 or maybe 80 years.
However, China is a rapidly growing economically. And more importantly, it is a society that is on a positive path, politically, socially and culturally. And all I care about is whether they are improving or they are not improving. And China is improving, hence I call China an emerging market.
The rest of the Third World countries have faced continual degradation since the time European powers stopped running them. Now, we don’t necessarily see it that way because in the last 30 to 40 years, economies of the Third WorldLatin America, Africa, and India and Pakistan and the Middle Eastwere growing very rapidly.
Oil prices were booming in the ’70s, ’80s, ’90s, and until recently, actually, Latin America benefited hugely from export of natural resources, and so was the case with Africa. And the Indian subcontinent benefited hugely from free import of Western technology. So these were all dependent on external benefits coming for free to these countries.
And those benefits disappeared about 10 years back. The Third World economies have been stagnating for most of this decade. Third World countries, institutionally, have been falling apart consistently since the time European powers gave up leadership of these countries.
And that degradation of institutions of the Third World will start to emerge and become increasingly visible going forward. But I think COVID-19 has been a catalyst. It has actually rapidly changed the curve and it has added a very high influencing factor to destroy the Third World.
So these five billion people are destroying themselves very rapidly right now. And I don’t think there’s much time left for these Third World countries to fall apart and implode.
Maurice Jackson: Jayant, as you were speaking, my mind was reflecting on a conversation we had about two years ago, where you made the distinction on the Third World economies [of] how the individuals there still do not understand the concept of the wheel as they carry items on their head. And also you had shared that they still do not have lead piping, which was introduced over 2,000 years ago by the Romans.
Jayant Bhandari: The reality is that, one can go and travel Third World countriesand by the way, today I am in Indiaand in India you will see something very funny consistently, particularly if you pay attention. Girls and women, girls in school uniforms, girls who are educated, so-called educated, carry pots of water on their head.
Now you have to understand that, despite that they have been so-called educated, they don’t really get the concept of wheel. They can draw a wheel, they can see a wheel but they don’t really understand how to use [it], put that wheel into action, how to use that wheel to improve their lives.
And that is why technology might be in front of them, smartphones might be in front of them, but they dont understand the utility the wheel will perform in their lives.
And that is where the biggest problem in the Third World isthe education received, combined with prosperity and technology, isn’t helping these people. . .these are virtues [that] have become vices and the tools for these societies to impose their tribal world views on other people.
Maurice Jackson: In my experience, far too often investors/speculators are only bean counters, and they only look at the numbers. And oftentimes these individuals overlook the significant role that the intangibles and other mitigating factors play in their investment pieces. How do cultures and value systems fit into the narrative?
Jayant Bhandari: Most of the world outside the Western society was tribal. We were living like animals before the Western people started exporting their culture, religion and technology to the Third World. So now, yes, I can always pinpoint and find deficiency in the Western society and how they might have exploited let’s say, the natural resources of Africa.
But Africans did not even know that there was copper to be found in that rock, they had no such concept. They did not have the concept of tools, they did not really have the concept of written language. Nothing is perfect, Maurice, so we can still isolate some of the bad things European did, and I acknowledge that they did a lot of bad things, but overall the influence of the Western society on the Third World was massively positive. It converted what were, actually, people who were behaving like animals, because they did not really have a civilization. There were no institutions or a structure in these societies.
Europeans brought in the concept of civilization to these societies in the Third World. So, that is the importance of culture. Culture enables two important things, it enables accumulation of capital, and it enables accumulation of knowledge and information. And both of these things are the legs on which civilizations stands. And without which, you can’t have capital, you can’t have companies, you can’t have progress either intellectual or capital.
And if you don’t have those cultural bases, everything that Europeans left in the Third World countries will fall apartand you can actually go to the institutions and buildings throughout the Third World they’re always falling apart. You can give them the best airports and the best railway station, and within six months you will see paints peeling off, bricks coming out of the walls, no electricity. Fundamentally, that is where culture is very important. Things tend to fall apart if you don’t have the right culture, conducive to capitalism, conducive to civilization, conducive to accumulation of capital and conducive to accumulation of information, knowledge and philosophy.
Maurice Jackson: Weve covered the East Asia and the Third World, how about the West?
Jayant Bhandari: I’m quite a lover of the Western society and civilization. Western civilization of course, could not heavy-handedly control its people. The West, I think, will emerge fine, at least from the virus. There are other problems in the West today, but West will emerge out fine. But remember that the population of the Western society and Eastern society combined, is only about 2.5 billion people.
Maurice Jackson: What are some key distinctions that are creating the demise of the West?
Jayant Bhandari: Statistically, the biggest problem has been that people of non-European origin and that is statistically, and we can go into the depths of why this has been the casebut statistically, people of non-European origin, particularly females, and colored, and Black people, Hispanic people, they tend to vote for a nanny state.
They tend to vote for a big government, and that goes against the Christian values that were the basis of Western civilization. That goes against liberty and goes against the culture of self-respect and self-responsibility. Western societies that are leaning more and more to the left have embraced whining and grievances and dependency that has taken hold increasingly among the underclass in the Western society.
Now, here is the problem, Mauriceand again, I’m talking statisticallyvery rapidly 50% of the U.S. is becoming people from non-European origin. And they, as a result, have a very high democratic influence on who runs America. And unfortunately, as I just said, they tend to vote for a nanny government, they tend to vote for the Democratic Party, the leftist people.
And as a result, Western society, particularly the U.S., will very rapidly become a leftist society once Trump is gone.
Maurice Jackson: My wife and I are both immigrants. And it’s funny how the family members and friends that we have that lean to the left, their vocabulary is completely different than our vocabulary. We’re proud Libertarians and Christians, but their vocabulary on the left is, when am I getting my check?
And they’re bragging about receiving something for nothing and not realizing the long-term consequences on future generations. And unfortunately, they’re going to be rewarded again for doing nothing in the near future. And one might say to themselves: “Well, I can’t work. How can I do something?” The reality is, your creative juices should be flowing right now.
And we should be trying to create utility, because trust me, there’s something that you can do that can benefit others and benefit you financially in a constructive way. And only in the United States, and this another discussion my wife and I were having again, prior to this interview, will you see someone that is obese, meaning they consume more calories than they burn, begging for food.
Jayant Bhandari: And I feel these people should be ashamed. And I know there are people with disabilities or people who have a natural reason to be obese, unfit or being unable to work. But a lot of people like me, and that includes me, my partner, a lot of friends I have known in America, they came to America without any money.
They came almost with their clothes on and nothing much else. And that’s what happened with me. And America is such a generous society, America is so open-minded, it enables people to become rich very quickly. And all the people I have known who immigrated to America or moved to America to work, very soon had their own houses and started driving cars, had decent jobs.
And they had jobs which they enjoyed and jobs where they were respected. So any American who failed to make a good life on his own and instilled in his children a culture of grievances and whining is such a loser. And I feel so envious for him because, were I given his place, I would not have lost a couple of decades of my life trying to find my way to reach the West, which they did not have to worry about, and they still missed that boat.
Maurice Jackson: Prior to our interview, you made a statement that I thought was really profound. And you stated, “When you change your heroes, you change your behavior.” There’s so much truth in that statement. Can you expand on that for us?
Jayant Bhandari: What has happenedand we were talking about, of course, before we started recording [was] about colored people, and that applies to both of our communitiesthe colored people have developed this concept of grievances and the concept of whining and getting free stuff. And one of the big reasons is that, colored people have started to look up to people who advocate giving out free stuff.
Their heroes are people like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, or a couple of other very ultra-leftist politicians that have become very visible in the U.S. political space recently. If I wanted to have a colored person as my hero, and I don’t need a colored person as my hero, my heroes are people like Doug Casey, Rick Rule. . .Adrian Day, these are the people I look up to. And I have Bob Moriarty. . .a lot of them are white people. I am a racially blind, I don’t care about their color. What I care about is whether they are rational, enlightened, good people. And I want to follow them and I want to learn as much as possible from them.
And Stephen Cox is another one of the great people I have got to know for the last 15 years. So, I can name people and a lot of those are white people, and I don’t care which society they come from, which racial group they come from.
And before you started recording, we’re talking about a writer known as Booker T. Washington. And everyone should read his book called “Up from Slavery;” it’s a beautiful book. Booker T. lived during the Civil War time and his book is about developing a concept of self-responsibility, a concept of being proud among the black communities. And he actually achieved a lot; he earned respect of white people, he earned respect of white people within and around his community.
And eventually he even tried to help the underclass Europeans living around him. And that is the kind of hero [I would have], if I really wanted to have a black hero. And again, for me it does not matter, he is my hero because he was a great guy. So everyone should read his book, “Up from Slavery,” and the name of the writer is Booker T. Washington.
Maurice Jackson: Speaking of Booker T. Washington, I like to share an intellectual exercise I’ve been conducting probably now for 10 years. And I know that our Silver Stackers will appreciate this. Whenever I’m at a social event, I ask the following question: “Do you believe that President Obama should be the first African American on a coin?”
And I ask this making sure that there is always a black person and a white person. And in my experience in the 10 years, it’s been a resounding yes, by the black, and a resounding no, by the white. And you could see the their nonverbals change. I don’t care if we were talking about angels and the color pink was all around us, there’s some tension in the air. And I share with them, your opinions have no bearing on the outcome of the correct answer. I reach into my pocket and I grab a 50-cent piece minted in 1946: it has Booker T. Washington on it.
This is a 90% silver coin, no different than a Kennedy 50-cent piece. And I share with them that, no matter how passionate you feel about it, it’s already been done. And the reason it was done was to stop the spread of communism in the African American community. And by the way, Booker T. Washington was also on the second coin minted with an African American by the name of George Washington Carver, again a 50-cent piece, 90% silver.
But I also share with them that I was not born a U.S. citizen, so English is not my first language. But I do know that President Obama was biracial, just like I am. So therefore, he could never be the first African American minted on a coin.
Jayant Bhandari: And Maurice, this is so sad that, despite that he was actually a very popular guy, he’s no longer remembered, at least it seems no longer remembered by the black community and the rest of the American people. And he should be one of our heroes, but carry on.
Maurice Jackson: Which is really unfortunate because the left was inspired and influenced by a gentleman who was the nemesis of Booker T. Washington, and that will be W. E. B. Du Bois. He was the founder of the NAACP. What a lot of people in the black community don’t realize about W. E. B. Du Bois was that he was also a communist.
So both of them realized there were wrongs done by slavery, but took two completely juxtaposed positions. And one has been embraced by the black community, and it was the influence, again, of W. E. B. Du Bois. But to me, my hero is Booker T. Washington.
All right, let’s get back on track here. You referenced in your musing, the need for order. Can you expand on that for us? And is that the same as being controlled by Big Brother?
Jayant Bhandari: Well, the last thing you want to have is order brought in by the Big Brother, because the moment you have top-down order, there might be order, but the problem is, there will be huge systemic risks because of two reasons.
Firstly, the guy at the very top does not really understand what is happening at the ground level, so he does not really know what is happening at the ground level and cannot really define policies to keep order in the society.
Also, at the same time, people in such a society act like children because they have someone else always telling them how to live. As a result, the combination of these two things create a very infantile society where people have no sense of responsibility.
And as a result, this creates a massive systemic risk in the society. So, what I don’t want is top-down order, what I want is bottom-up order, an order within an individual. And within an individual requires, for a lack of word, domesticating that individual. Making that person understand the concept of civilization.
And that was an order that was brought in by among many other things, Christianity. I am an atheist, but I truly understand the huge value Christianity provides as one of the most important legs for the Western society.
So, it is a self-imposed order that you accept. You accept the concept of integrity, you accept respect for other people, you accept doing charity for the people who need to be helped, and these are the concepts which are uniquely Christian.
So this is the kind of order that I’m interested in, a bottom-up order where an individual is self-responsible, he does not have the culture of whining and grievances, and he does not impose himself on other people. So that is what I am referring to when I state “the need for order.”
Maurice Jackson: If East Asia looks to be the primary beneficiary of a post-COVID-19 era, how can someone [reading] benefit financially?
Jayant Bhandari: There are a lot of emotions in the market, which means there’s a huge amount of volatility in the market. If you understand what that volatility means and how you can exploit that volatility, you can actually buy something when it is very inexpensive and get an extra upside from that huge volatility.
So that is where East Asia comes into the picture. A lot of East Asian stocks have suffered. Now there is, of course, a problem: you have to be very nuanced in your thinking because you don’t know what bank balance sheets will look like. You don’t know how easy it will be for Chinese clothes manufacturers to be able to export to the U.S. in the near future.
Therefore, readers have to be aware of some of those things, but this volatility, this fall in the stock prices, actually might be beneficial for readers in getting an extra upside. Readers have to remember that a lot of these stocks have bounced back over the last month. If I had to buy something, I would just want to keep an eye on good companies and wait for another fall in the stock prices to exploit that volatility again.
Maurice Jackson: Many of our audience members are active participants in resource stocks. Sir, how will the resource space respond for investors in a post-coronavirus world?
Jayant Bhandari: It’s very interesting question, because I just told you for now, it is difficult to know what a bank balance sheet or exporter balance sheet will look like, because we don’t know what the trade situation between China and U.S. will be like in moving forward. Therefore, the more upstream you go, in terms of what a company makes, the better it will be for you, because the more you are closer to commodities, the better your understanding of the cost and revenue is.
For example, speculators know exactly what the revenue will be for oil, gas, mining companies, base metals, gold and silver, to include what your production would be and what your costs would be because you know what costs go into these industries. As a result, the more upstream you are, the better off you will be in valuing these companies.
And you can hedge yourself; you can play with the futures. I don’t always advocate investing in mining companies, but I think commodity businesses are going to be at a huge advantage because you are much better able to value these companies in the current scenario.
Maurice Jackson: Jayant, you’re a highly regarded name in the natural resource space as you consult with institutional investors on unique value propositions. Can you share some golden nuggets that you see as buying opportunities right now?
Jayant Bhandari: Sure. Just be mindful of the fact that some of these stocks have gone up over the last three weeks or so, and I would not be surprised if they fall. I would only give limit orders and I would give stink orders actually, just to get as much benefit from volatility, which I think will continue to happen over the next few months.
One is Anaconda Mining Inc. (ANX:TSX). They came out with a good quarterly, it’s trading around $0.25/share. I wouldn’t bid for it at higher than that. I think it’s a good company based in Canada, which in my view is a safe jurisdiction. And from what I know the mine continues to run and continues to spit out a good cash flow.
Another company, O3 Mining Inc. (OIII:TSX.V), [is] a company I’ve mentioned to you a few times. It has gone up quite a bit from $1.10 to $2.50/share recently. But I still think it has a very good upside, I would bid for it around $2 or less, to see if I can get that company.
There’s another company called Mirasol Resources Ltd. (MRZ:TSX.V), which Is trading around $0.40/share. I would wait for it to fall to maybe about $0.35. I know there are a lot of sellers because this company has everything in Latin America. But if you buy it below $0.35, you will be buying it for cash value.
Maurice Jackson: It goes without saying, you’re also the most respected name when it comes to arbitrage opportunities. I still remember your call on Sunridge Gold, that went up over 600% in less than three months. Do you have any arbitrage opportunities to share with us?
Jayant Bhandari: Absolutely, and arbitrage opportunities are some of the most basic ways to make money. We should just keep ourselves limited to what we understand, so arbitrage requires very simple math.
Tethyan Resource Corp. (TETH:TSX.V), situated in Canada, is being acquired by an Australian company. So if you buy Tethyan, which offers you about 20% arbitrage upside at the current price of CA$0.15, you not only have an arbitrage opportunity, but the company that is acquiring it actually is a very well-run company from what I know, and it actually has a very good upside as well. So, have look at Tethyan Resource.
But remember that these shares will convert into Australian or London stocks after the merger is over. So you should have an account with a brokerage like Interactive Brokers, where your shares can automatically convert to ASX or London-based stocks without a fee. And you can then sell those stocks at a reasonable commission, not at a very high commission, if you hold this company and, let’s say, use TD or Scotiabank.
Maurice Jackson: Moving on to physical precious metals, from a scale of one to 10, and 10 meaning the highest, what number would you assign to owning physical precious metals right now?
Jayant Bhandari: As I said just a while back, Maurice, [for] mining and commodity businesses, the more upstream you are, the safer you are in terms of valuation because you know what is going in and what is coming out much better than when you get into very complex businesses, let’s say like Apple cell phones, or banks, or clothes manufacturers, because you don’t really understand what costs and revenue will look like, and whether you can sell or not.
So the more upstream you are, the better off you are. And hence mining and commodity businesses are very good for me. But also, if you can actually own commodities, you are even better grounded to valuation, solid valuation. And that is where I think it’s extremely important to own a good part of your net worth, let’s say 10 to 20%, in precious metals.
Now the easiest precious metals to own are gold, silver, platinum and palladium. And if I could buy these when the prices are good, I would certainly want to accumulate more of these. I would assign a big 10, that investor should own physical precious metals.
Maurice Jackson: What financial words of wisdom would you like to impart for someone that does not own precious metals?
Jayant Bhandari: So, the more downstream you go, Maurice, the more you are in abstraction for now, because the economic structure of the world is going to change and has already changed. Now this is not necessarily because of COVID-19, it is more because of some of the crazyand I would say, stupiddecisions several governments have taken.
This has created an economic chaos around the world. And the more grounded you are to value in these days, the better off you will be. At least you will get a peaceful sleep. And also you are more likely to protect your savings. Maybe you won’t make a lot of money but my guess is that, you will actually make money in gold and silver.
So yes, it’s extremely important to be invested in physical precious metals. But also, if you understand more of downstream businesses like banks or clothes manufacturers, then go for it. I invest in Singapore, Hong Kong and China, and I know the risks I’m taking. So I will continue to invest in them.
But if you don’t know a lot about investing, then precious metals and commodities is actually an extremely safe way to protect your savings. Precious metals are actually, across the board, very safe ways to protect your savings. And because they’re safe ways, a lot of people will be buying these in the near future, so investors should take advantage of the low prices and start buying now!
Maurice Jackson: And if readers are looking to purchase physical precious metals be sure to contact me. I’m a proud licensed representative for Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments.
Now let’s discuss a topic that is germane to all of the aforementioned, yet never discussed, it seems, on any other financial platform, and that is philosophy. Mr. Bhandari how does philosophy fit into today’s discussion?
Jayant Bhandari: For me, the most important thing is the foundation. And the foundation is, why we have a civilization, why we are no longer animals, is because of culture, because we are able to think for the future, we can accumulate knowledge and information, we can plan for tomorrow. And as a result, philosophy is very important, because philosophy and reasoning allows us to add value as we go forward.
So, for me, that is the cornerstone, that is the foundation of everything. Some people tell me that I should focus on investing and not worry about philosophy. But for me, what is not seen, what is the foundation, is the most important.
Maurice Jackson: Sir, you are the founder of a philosophical form focused on reason, argumentation and liberty. Please introduce us to Capitalism & Morality.
Jayant Bhandari: I have been running this seminar in Vancouver, Canada, for the last 10, 11 years now. This is a one-day philosophy seminar in which people like Doug Casey, Adrian Day, Rick Rule, Jeff Dice, Walter Block [speak]; a lot of these people have spoken in the past and they continue to come in and speak in that seminar.
It is a very enlightening seminar in my view; I do it every summer. The next one will be on July 25, 2020, in downtown Vancouver, subject, of course, to the fact that people, by that time, are allowed to travel between the U.S. and Canada.
Maurice Jackson: In closing, sir, what keeps you up at night that we don’t know about?
Jayant Bhandari: Well, right now Maurice, I am stuck in India. And I’ve been here for the last two months because of an atrocious lockdown that Narendra Modi has enforced in this country. It has created a massive humanitarian crisis, which I think will lead to deaths of millions of people. And it will probably create a massive amount of chaos in this country.
And as I said earlier, there will very likely be no recovery in the foreseeable future. India will implode and fall apart; disease and a virus will have a field day in this country. I feel very bad about what I’m seeing with my eyes. Unfortunately, I feel sad for the people who are suffering because of horrible leadership that exists in India, including the Third World.
Maurice Jackson: Mr. Bhandari, last question: What did I forget to ask?
Jayant Bhandari: Well, I think we have talked about a lot of things. Maurice, I still hope I can run my seminar on July 25, 2020, in Vancouver, subject to the fact that travel between the U.S. and Canada opens up.
Maurice Jackson: Jayant, for someone listening that wants to learn more about your work in Capitalism & Morality, please share the website address.
Jayant Bhandari: [Go to] www.jayantbhandari.com, and go to a tab called Capitalism & Morality, where [you] can watch speeches of the last 10, 11 years. And you can also register for this year’s seminar.
Maurice Jackson: Before you make your next bullion purchase, make sure you call me. I’m a licensed representative for Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments. We provide a number of options to expand your precious metals portfolio from physical delivery, offshore depositories and precious metal IRAs.
Call me directly at (855) 505-1900 or you may e-mail [email protected]. Last but not least, please subscribe to www.provenandprobable.com for mining insights and bullion sales. Jayant Bhandari, thank you for joining us today on Proven and Probable.
Maurice Jackson is the founder of Proven and Probable, a site that aims to enrich its subscribers through education in precious metals and junior mining companies that will enrich the world.
Disclosure: 1) Maurice Jackson: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: None. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this article: None. Proven and Probable disclosures are listed below. 2) Jayant Bhandari: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: Anaconda Mining, O3 Mining, Mirasol Resources, Tethyan Resource. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this article: None. 3) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. 4) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy. 5) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports. 6) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own shares of XXXXXX, a company mentioned in this article.
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Technical analyst Clive Maund charts Black Tusk Resources and explains why he sees it as an “immediate strong speculative buy.”
If you are one of those people who likes to show up at a lavish party right at the starting bell, after weeks or even months of arduous preparation (by others) then this stock is for you. This is one of the most powerfully bullish setups I have seen for a long time and the great news is that the price hasn’t started moving yet, but all the technical indications are that it is about to.
On its latest 3-year chart we can see that after hitting a peak in 2018, Black Tusk Resources Inc. (TUSK:CSE; BTKRF:OTCMKTS; 0NB:FSE) has been in a persistent downtrend that continued through all of last year with the result that at its lows of last October and December it was priced at just 3 cents, or one-ninth of its price at its highs. Even now, after recovering somewhat in a Triangular base pattern, it is still just a little over one-sixth of its price at its highs. Just going on price alone it looks like the upper boundary of the downtrend shown could force it into another downleg, and while anything is possible, the volume pattern and volume indicators powerfully suggest that instead we are about to see a decisive breakout to the upside. There has been persistent heavy upside volume throughout most of April and this month which we can reasonably presume has cleared out most of the bears, and it has driven volume indicators strongly higher, especially the most important Accumulation line. This is clearly determined accumulation or mopping up of stock by those “in the know” ahead of a breakout and sizeable advance. Before leaving this chart we can observe a first target for the advance, which will be the quite heavy resistance in the 12 cent area, which will probably force a period of consolidation before further gains are made.
On the 6-month chart we can clearly see why the situation is becoming so explosively bullish, for we can see that the price and its moving averages are converging at a time when the base Triangle is closing up. This means that the time of breakout is at hand and it must occur soon.
The conclusion to all this must be that Black Tusk is an immediate strong speculative buy (speculative because it is a low priced explorer). However, note that volumes are painfully thin on the US OTC market, so it is better if possible to buy it on the Canadian market. You can buy it on the OTC market as volumes should improve going forward, but be sure to place a limit order to avoid being fleeced by the market makers. There are a very reasonable 46.6 million shares in issue.
Black Tusk Resources, TUSK.CSE, BTKRF on OTC, closed at C$0.05, $0.034 on 27th May 20.
Originally posted on CliveMaund.com at 9.27 am EDT on 28th May 2020.
Clive Maund has been president of www.clivemaund.com, a successful resource sector website, since its inception in 2003. He has 30 years’ experience in technical analysis and has worked for banks, commodity brokers and stockbrokers in the City of London. He holds a Diploma in Technical Analysis from the UK Society of Technical Analysts.
Disclosure: 1) Clive Maund: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: None. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this article: None. CliveMaund.com disclosures below. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector. 2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. As of the date of this article, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports has a consulting relationship with Black Tusk Resources. Please click here for more information. 3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy. 4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports. 5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports (including members of their household) own securities of Black Tusk Resources, a company mentioned in this article.
Charts provided by the author.
CliveMaund.com Disclosure: The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.
This week – May 31 through June 6 – central banks from three countries or jurisdictions are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Australia, Canada and the European Central Bank from the euro area.
Following table includes the name of the country, the date of the next policy decision, the current policy rate, the result of the last policy decision, the change in the policy rate year to date, and the rate one year ago.
The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always accessed by clicking on This Week.
Money manager Adrian Day reviews developments, both positive and not-so-positive, at several companies in his portfolio and he finds that some are cheap enough to buy.
Loews Corp. (L:NYSE, 31.19) is having a rough time, with several of its holdings severely hit by not only Covid restrictions but by broader market conditions as well.
Its struggling, majority-owned Diamond Offshore succumbed to weak oil markets by filing for bankruptcy.
Investment income at its CNA insurance unit declined sharply.
Virtually all its hotels have closed and laid off 90% of staff amid travel restrictions.
All this contributed to a loss for the quarter of $632 million loss, over $400 million of attributable to a no-cash impairment on some of Diamond Offshore’s rigs. And the current quarter won’t be better. It will write down its carrying value on Diamond this quarter. The bankrupt shares are currently trading at 20 cents in the pink sheets, down from $7 a share at the beginning of the year (and over $100 a share before the 2008 credit crisis). Loews’ carrying value at quarter-end of over $1 billion; that will be slashed to about $15 million (in a non-cash loss). Given the bankruptcy, Loews no longer controls Diamond, and so will no longer consolidate Diamond’s earnings.
Some units doing well
CNA’s operations have been strong, driven by lower expenses as well as rate increases. Its business interruption policies do not pay on the virus related closures. But the decline in interest rates will affect its ability to earn on its reserves. Boardwalk Pipelines is doing well, notwithstanding the decline in the weakness in the O&G sector. Its plastic packaging manufacturer, Altium, has benefited from a surge in demand from the retail side during the virus shutdowns. Looking ahead, the hotels should start to come back, though it’s unknown how much demand there will be, especially in the near term.
Lots of cash to see it through
The balance sheet remains rock solid, with over $3 billion in cash and investments held at the parent level (80% of that in cash and equivalents), and no significant calls on cash. Given its emphasis on maintaining liquidity, the company has repurchased no shares since quarter end, after buying back almost 10 million shares during the first quarter.
Loews is undervalued on an asset basis. At quarter end, its book value was $60.28 per share. Even after the expected Diamond write down, BV would be around $53.60. The current market value of Loews’ interest in CNA alone accounts for around 90% of this value. So it is unquestionably undervalued and has a solid balance sheet. Patient investors can buy Loews on any dips.
Near term and longer term growth at Osisko
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd. (OR:TSX; OR:NYSE, US$10.31) reported, with production (Gold Equivalent Ounces, or “GEOs”) slightly less than expected. Although several mines had been hit by government mandated lockdowns, Quebec has now lifted the restrictions and mines are ramping back up to steady production. This includes two mines on which its largest royalties are, Malartic and Éléonore. Together with a third smaller mines, they represent 49% of this year’s analyst estimated GEOs. The company has suspended its 2020 guidance. The Renard diamond mine remains on care and maintenance due to low prices.
Osisko has a respectable balance sheet, with $158 million cash and over $300 million available on its credit line; net debt as of the end of the quarter stood at $265 million. It also has investments in juniors worth $250 million. After quarter end, it raised $85 million from a Quebec investment fund.
Approach means more risk but also potential
Osisko’s “hybrid” approach to the royalty model unquestionably adds risk. At the same time, the profile of its revenue generating assets is reasonably low risk, consisting primarily of royalties (not streams), with over 80% in gold, on primary gold mines (not by-products), mostly in Canada, and with a 91% cash margin. Given the recent stock price rally back to February highs, we are not chasing stocks here. But we would be buyers again on a pullback; Osisko has strong upside, if not imminent, from a resumption of Renard, and advancement of projects held by its so-called incubator companies, notably O3’s Windfall.
Positioned for post-Covid
Kingsmen Creatives Ltd. (KMEN:SI, 0.199 x 0.23) has been hurt as Covid restrictions have postponed new jobs from retail and corporate build-outs to attractions and events. Some of these segments, such as retail, were already sluggish, while office real estate may take a longer-term hit from the lockdown.
But Kingsmen will rebound, we believe. Focused on design and creativity, it has proven itself to be nimble, with new investments in branded experiential attractions. There have been three so far, with partners including Hasbro and Animal Planet. This could be a very strong growth segment in the years ahead. Exhibitions and attractions, where revenue grew by 7% last year, but has been hit by the shutdown, could also come back strongly.
The planned investments in the new attractions, as well as the reduction in other areas, hurt revenue last year and will again in the first half of this year. But we think Kingsmen is very cheap here with solid growth potential over the next couple of years. We would use a limit of S$0.21 at present. It’s a buy.
Lower guidance but strong balance sheet
Newmont Corp. (NEM:NYSE, 63.01) said 90% of its production was back on line, though ramp up to prior levels was still underway at some mines. Overall, guidance for this year was reduced slightly to 6 million ounces with costs raised slightly to $775. The balance sheet remains strong, with cash of $3.7 billion, and net debt of $2.4 billion, down from $3.9 billion at year-end 2019 due to several asset sales. It also repurchased $321 million of shares during the first quarter. This coming quarter, with mine shutdowns and ramp ups, is expected to be its weakest quarter of the year. We are holding.
Yamana continues to improve, but investors remain cautious
Yamana Gold Inc. (YRI:TSX; AUY:NYSE; YAU:LSE, US$5.25) has a stronger-than-expected quarter with cash flow and earnings higher than analyst estimates, as it drives down costs and strengthens the balance sheet. The company raised the dividend by 25%.
The balance sheet continues to strengthen, reducing debt during the first quarter by $20 million. After quarter end, Yamana sold some of the shares it holds in Equinox for $120 million. If all the proceeds went to debt repayment, net debt would be around $780 million. It is on track to achieve, by year end, its target of net debt to EBITDA of less than 1 times.
Yamana’s valuation is at the lower end for larger mining companies. We could see a valuation re-rating if the company continue to strengthen the balance sheet, achieve consistent operations, including successful ramp-ups at mine expansions, and have success at the brownfield exploration around five existing mines. However, because of its history of mis-steps, we are holding.
TOP BUYS this week in addition to those discussed above include Midland Exploration Inc. (MD:TSX.V, 0.80). Most markets and sectors, including gold stocks and BDCs, have moved too far too fast in the current environment to be buying.
Originally posted on May 25, 2020.
Adrian Day, London-born and a graduate of the London School of Economics, heads the money management firm Adrian Day Asset Management, where he manages discretionary accounts in both global and resource areas. Day is also sub-adviser to the EuroPacific Gold Fund (EPGFX). His latest book is “Investing in Resources: How to Profit from the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks.”
Disclosure: 1) Adrian Day: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of the following companies mentioned in this article: Midland Exploration. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this article: None. Funds controlled by Adrian Day Asset Management hold shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: All. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector. 2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. 3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy. 4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports. 5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Midland Exploration, Newmont and Osisko Gold Royalties, companies mentioned in this article.
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up Gerald Celente of the Trends Journal joins me for an explosive interview on a range of topics, including the massive government failures in handling the COVID-19 outbreak, some alarming statistics about the virus that the legacy media are ignoring, and offers some incredibly valuable advice on what people should be doing to prepare for what he calls the greatest depression. So, stick around for my conversation with Gerald Celente, coming up after this week’s market update. Let me warn you though, this interview is NOT for the faint of heart.
Precious metals markets are trading mixed this week. Despite a significant drop in the U.S. Dollar Index which might have served as a catalyst for a big breakout week for gold and silver – futures traders had other ideas and kept metals prices relatively capped through Thursday. Today, however, we’re seeing a nice month-end rally in gold and silver prices.
For the week, spot gold is essentially flat to trade at $1,743 an ounce. Silver, meanwhile, sports a weekly gain of 3.7% to come in at $17.93 per ounce.
Silver’s outperformance brings the gold:silver ratio back below 100 after reaching historically high levels from the panicked market conditions of March. Although the ratio itself doesn’t trade on any exchange, some metals traders do try to profit off trends in the ratio by going long one metal and short the other. Long-term bullion investors also use the ratio as a measure of relative value when deciding whether to favor gold or silver in new purchases.
Right now, in terms of both relative value and near-term momentum, silver has the edge over gold. Although anything is possible near-term, including another spike higher in the gold:silver ratio, any reading in the 100s would represent an historically rare opportunity to nab some silver on the cheap. Even in the 90s, silver is still an extraordinary bargain, relatively speaking, given that the ratio traded in the 30s as recently as 2011.
Also looking cheap on a historic basis is platinum. Since 2008, platinum has gone from commanding more than double the gold price to less than half. Like silver, platinum has gained some ground in recent weeks. It is unchanged for this week, though, and currently trades at $846 an ounce.
And finally, palladium prices currently come in at $1,992, down 4.0% since last Friday’s close.
Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic and the global economic lockdowns that followed have brought out the best in some… and the worst in others.
Some scam artists have cruelly used the crisis as an opportunity to prey on the hopes and fears of vulnerable people. Whether it’s peddling fraudulent coronavirus charities or fake cures for the disease, sham investment opportunities or counterfeit medical masks, crooks are finding creative ways of cashing in.
We’ve even seen increases in some types of fraud in the precious metals markets. For example, counterfeit coins are showing up in more places.
The Anti-Counterfeiting Educational Foundation warned this week that fraudulent advertisements for gold and silver coins are appearing on Facebook.
Some of the scam offers are for supposed numismatic coins that are placed in plastic capsules with phony certifications that appear to come from genuine coin grading services. Slabbing a coin with a doctored grade can potentially add hundreds or even thousands of dollars in artificial value.
The good news is that these sorts of fraud schemes can’t be pulled off on bullion investors who stick to common coins, rounds, and bars that are priced mainly on their metal content and not on their supposed rarity or collectible value or their fancy certifications.
Even genuine numismatic coins can be ridiculously overpriced and overhyped by dealers. Some have faced prosecution for consumer fraud in recent years, and other sketchy operators in this space have ramped up their advertising during the pandemic to try to lure people who want the protection of bullion into the weeds of high-priced and illiquid collectible products.
Sticking to low-premium bullion items is the first and most important way to avoid being scammed in the precious metals market. Always keep your eye on the actual melt value of the precious metal contained in the item you are buying. But even if you stay in in the realm of honest money, there are scams to be aware of.
According to the Anti-Counterfeiting Educational Foundation, as well as our own research, there are many fake one-ounce silver American Eagles being peddled in online marketplaces. The fakes are composed of cheaper base metals, often without any disclosure.
It may seem hard to believe that fraudsters would go to the trouble of creating realistic-looking phony silver coins given that they will sell for only a small fraction of what counterfeit gold or numismatic coins can garner. But perhaps they are exploiting the fact that bullion buyers tend to be less careful and less suspicious when shopping for silver.
You should never have to wonder whether what you’re buying is the real deal. That means never buying from disreputable or unknown sources. Naturally, illicit operators will try to tempt you away from what good sense dictates by offering what appears to be an unbeatable deal.
The reality is that anyone who wants to sell you gold or silver at prices that are too good to be true is trying to hoodwink you. Either the product isn’t genuine. Or it won’t come at all. Or it’s a bait and switch scheme designed to get you in the door, so-to-speak, so that a salesman can harangue into buying something much pricier.
When it comes to buying physical precious metals, only reputable dealers that specialize in what you actually are interested in owning deserve your business.
We are certainly proud of the reputation we have built over the years at Money Metals Exchange and will continue to work hard to keep it. And you never have to wonder about the authenticity of the products we sell as our rigorous and highly sophisticated testing equipment verifies every piece of metal that passes through our building.
Our reputation is on the line every time we ship out an item — and we guarantee everything as being exactly what we are representing it to be.
In the meantime, we will also continue to keep an eye on shenanigans within our industry and the broader global market for precious metals – and report to you some of the things we are seeing.
Meanwhile, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Justice Department are engaging in investigations into price manipulation and other fraud schemes carried out by traders working for big banks. A handful of institutional futures traders can push paper prices for gold or silver up or down for no real fundamental reason on any given day.
But at the end of the day, long-term investors should ignore the noise and stay focused on the supply and demand fundamentals for gold and silver. As long as you stick to physical metal, the physical fundamentals will ultimately win out.
Well now, without further delay we’ll launch into this week’s exclusive Money Metals interview with the top trends forecaster in the world, and before we do that… a warning: the following interview does contain some strong language. As such, listener discretion is advised.
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back the one and the only Gerald Celente, publisher of the renowned Trends Journal. Mr. Celente has been a regular guest on the Money Metals Podcast over the years and is perhaps the most well-known trends forecaster in the world, and it’s always great to have him on with us.
Gerald, thanks for the time again today and welcome back.
Gerald Celente: Well thanks for having me back again Mike.
Mike Gleason: Gerald, I’d like to start by getting your outlook on what lies ahead for the nation. Some states are easing the lockdown. Other places, such as California, are extending such restrictions. Regardless, there has been economic carnage.
It’s difficult for a lot of us to determine just how bad the damage is. Lots of Americans are receiving more in unemployment benefits than they earned while they were on the job. The equity markets have been rallying relentlessly after getting pummeled back in March, so there seems to be plenty of people who are expecting a quick recovery. We aren’t so sure.
It seems to us a lot of businesses that closed during the quarantine may not reopen and we haven’t even started to see the waves of bankruptcies in restaurants, hotels, airlines and movie theaters that is likely coming, to say nothing about industries such as the shale oil producers, who will likely be going broke. What is your forecast for the U.S. economy in the months ahead?
Gerald Celente: Well, it’s going to go up and down, but the trajectory is going to keep going down. We’re in the early stages of the greatest depression. We’ve got these little jerks, these little slimy morons, these arrogant little boys and girls called governors, mayors, senators, whatever you want to call them, telling us all what to do without any scientific backing behind any of their decisions and nothing more than gross failure.
Here I am in New York, and they got little Andy Cuomo, another arrogant boy born on third base and thought he hit a home run. He’d be a nobody if daddy wasn’t Mario Cuomo, the governor… so arrogant as a daddy’s boy he renames the Tappan Zee Bridge after his daddy, telling us all what to do, and you look at what they’ve done.
Here they’ve closed down New York State, and it has the highest per capita COVID death rates in the world, so it’s a total failure. The people that are dying, all the data in the Trends Journal, and others know it as well, that the majority are elderly people, chronically ill, in nursing homes. Yeah, like in nursing homes, chronically ill… they’re going to be leaving very soon and go on a vacation. They’re on their way out already.
Not that I’m saying this is great, but I’m saying it’s reality. You what the average age, in Italy, the first one to lock down, the death rate? 80 years old. 80 years old, the average death of COVID.
So they close down the global economy. It’s not going to bounce back. Oh, they’re opening up. Oh, yeah, they’re opening up restaurants and you can put your hands behind your back, because that’s the amount of freedom they’ve given you. You’re going to have to be socially distant. You’re going to get served with people wearing masks and rubber gloves. Isn’t that going to be fun? Oh, and by the way, the capacity could be down 75% to 50% in states, 25%. The restaurant business, even in good times, is hardly good.
And then there’s the travel industry. Oh, it’s going to be fun to travel as you get your temperature taken, and then they’re going to pull you aside. What, are they going to arrest you if your temperature is too high? And what if you go on a trip? Oh, if you go on a trip are you going to go to the UK? How about the F-U-C-K? Yeah, how about that one? You get quarantined for two weeks.
This isn’t coming back. We got sick bitches and bastards destroying our lives in front of us and there’s hardly any protests. This isn’t coming back. It’s only going to go down. Look at all the trade shows that have been canceled. Look at all the concerts that have been canceled. Look at how kids aren’t going back to college. Oh, those college towns are going to be booming, huh?
Hey, how about all that commercial real estate out there? We’re going to work from home now. Great. How about all those businesses that are going to survive because people are going to work?
This isn’t coming back, and we’ve been on this from the beginning. I am so sick and tired of hearing people now saying what’s going to happen when they’re swallowing the bullshit that was shoved down their throat from the beginning, the experts of where this is going.
Mike Gleason: Yeah. It obviously seems like the story changes in terms of the impact of COVID-19, in terms of how contagious it is. We get a different story it seems like every couple of weeks, and obviously Americans are unfortunately taking it all in and really have gone to a fear level that we never would have thought we would have seen before.
And on that note, has spending behaviors changed permanently? If so, what does this mean for brick and mortar retail and restaurants? You talked about that, commercial real estate. I mean I’ve seen polls where a meaningful amount of people won’t even think about going to a sporting event, for example, for six months after a vaccine is out.
Gerald Celente: Exactly. I mean you’re nailing it. You’re saying the whole thing. Isn’t that going to be fun to get vaccinated? I’m not going to get vaccinated. Hey, little Andy Cuomo, you want to vaccinate me? Come here and try and stick the vaccine in my arm. No, no, no. Leave your little boys behind, those tough guys that beat up innocent people. Leave them behind and you come here and try to put the vaccine in my arm, and that’s what the people are going to do.
The news is now that Trump is going to end the Afghan war, a 19 year war going on, just like these little slimy murderous pieces of crap start wars with no exit strategy. They started the COVID war with no exit strategy. Politicians are sick people. Poli-tics, got it, many sucking the life out of us. They don’t know anything. They’re morons. They’re arrogant narcissistic freaks. They have no way of getting us out of this, just like they get us into the other wars with no exit strategies, yet people are freaking out. They’re buying the crap.
Again, the data shows who’s dying. It’s the elderly, chronically ill people… diabetics, obesity, lung disease, respiratory ailments, heart problems. Quarantine them.
Hey, how about that place called Japan? You want to see a densely populated city like Tokyo? How many people died in Japan? I think about 640, under 1,000 out of a population of 126,000,000.
Look at the obesity rates in America? Look at the crap people are shoving down their throats as they’re locked in. Weight levels are going way up. Do you want more macaroni and cheese? Don’t forget to go to McDonald’s and get your takeout.
Has anybody talked about building immune systems up and staying healthy? And the facts are there that people that get this that are healthy, it comes and it goes. Again, you’re looking at the numbers. 100,000 dead in America. Yeah? How about the 200,000 that died last year of air pollution related sicknesses? How about the 480,000 that died last year of smoking related disease?
Mike Gleason: There was a lot of outrage in 2008 when Congress bailed out Wall Street. We thought it would get a lot harder for politicians to send trainloads of free money to the most undeserving people in the world, and in a sense maybe that is correct. It isn’t technically Congress that has been bailing out the banks this time. That dirty work has been done by the Fed, which is sending trillions to Wall Street. Jerome Powell and his crew don’t have to bother with any awkward public debate on the merits of their programs.
But we can’t help but be a little disappointed in the level of outrage amongst mainstream America. Granted anyone watching CNBC is probably not going to hear anyone challenge what’s being done, but how do the people in charge keep getting away with this?
Gerald Celente: Just like they’re getting away with the crap that they’re doing to us now. What do you think wars start for? You heil Hitlter, you salute Stalin and you march to Mussolini. People are doing the same thing now. It’s only a small minority that understands what’s going on. It’s criminal what the Federal Reserve is doing, buying junk bonds, pumping trillions of dollars into the repo markets. The whole stock market is a fraud.
And they keep getting away with it because the people don’t know about it and the people don’t care about it. My father, when I used to get upset like I am now, he’d say to me, “Son, take it easy. Stop.” He said, “People have little minds.” So what we’re talking about is the masses with little minds. Just as you march them off to war, they march off to the COVID war. They’ll follow anybody. They don’t know anything that’s going on with the Fed.
The reality is when the equity markets collapse, then people will realize the real dangers of the economic collapse ahead, and that’s why you’re seeing gold prices stabilize about $1,700. Because anybody with a brain bigger than George Bush’s or Andy Cuomo’s or Gruesome Newsom, any of these moron, imbecile, low life pieces of garbage/crap that has destroyed our lives, know it’s a total fraud and the central banks around the world are pumping in trillions of dollars of worthless money.
So people with a half a brain are going into gold and silver and to cryptocurrency. That’s why you’re seeing Bitcoin in the 8,000-9,000 range, because they know the other digital currency, backed by nothing, printed on nothing, and keeps being printed… not even printed, digitized at just a flick of a switch, is a big sham, and at some point this thing is going to collapse real hard.
Mike Gleason: So how does this play out Gerald? There are clearly some major deflationary forces from business failures and debt defaults, and then the frantic money printing that figures to drive a lot of inflation. Talk about this push-pull situation here, and will the trend be inflationary or deflationary in your view. Talk about that.
Gerald Celente: It depends on the country. So, if you’re in Argentina, if you’re in Venezuela, if you’re in Turkey, if you’re in Brazil where your currencies are collapsing and you’re already deep in recession and going in deeper, you’re going to start seeing inflation because your currencies are deflating.
But the United States is staying above inflation because of all the product on line, of all the product that hasn’t been sold, way more supply than demand. That’s why you’re seeing oil prices, as hard as they try to keep pushing them up, and you know, we’re still seeing Brent Crude about $35 a barrel. It’s dollar based, remember. So now if you’re in another country that $35 a barrel is expensive, but in the United States it’s not.
So, it’s not going to bring down the dollar until the crash happens, so as long as the crash doesn’t happen the dollar will stay strong, not because of the value of the dollar… and what are we going to be $4 trillion in debt this year it’s estimated? It’s because the other currencies are so weak.
You’re looking now at the Chinese yuan now at a 12 year low. And that’s very important to mention that by the way, because history is repeating itself. Remember, the yuan now is at a 12 year low, and you know how Trump keeps going on about they’re lowering their currency because they want to export more product.
Currency wars, trade wars, Great Depression, World War II. Currency wars, trade wars, greatest depression, World War III. That’s what’s shaping up. When all else fails, they take you to war. That’s why I am as angry as I am, because I am a futurist. That’s my business. I’ve been at it for 40 years. I don’t brag about my work, but I’ll put my trend forecasting track record up against anybody in the world.
Show me the books you’ve written. Show me your years of magazine publishing. Show me your information and then come and say that you have a better track record than me. And I’m not saying I’m right all the time. I’m human. You’re up and down, but my track record, I’ll put it up against anybody’s.
My concern and anger is these sick bitches and bastards that keep taking us to war, have taken us to the COVID war, which if it keeps going the way it’s going it’s going to launch into World War III.
Mike Gleason: Certainly a scary thought for sure, and yeah, I’ve heard you say that before, when all else fails to take you to war, and then we’d have to plan to watch out for that.
Talk about silver Gerald. We talk a lot about gold with you here on the podcast, but silver seems to have been the forgotten metal as the ratio has steadily been above 100 to one on the gold/silver ratio. So is poor man’s gold down for the count, given the economic headwinds we’re facing that will likely result in less industrial demand for the metal, or is there any hope there for silver? Give us your thoughts on that if you would.
Gerald Celente: Well you’re right about the less industrial need for the metal. And I don’t believe silver is going to start topping higher until gold really starts making a hard run, and I see that hard run when it breaks over $2,000. And my forecast for gold has been solid.
Again, you know what I’ve been saying. You know how bearish I was on gold for a long time, and it was not up until June 6th of last year, just about a year from now, when we came out with the Trend Alert, “The Gold Bull Run Began.” That was June 6th, and gold was $1,332 an ounce.
So when gold breaks over $1,740 and stays there for a few weeks, $1,740, $1,730, $1,780, $1,750, $1,750, $1,730, when it plays in that range for a while, my belief it’ll spike to $2,000 and above. When it gets to $2,000 and above, then silver will start to follow, because people will become very desperate for safe-haven assets, and silver will still be one of them.
Mike Gleason: Yeah, that’s where that substitution effect comes into play, that a lot of people are thinking will help silver eventually, gold leading the way and silver following, and then maybe outperforming once they do finally start to move.
Well, lastly as we begin to wrap up, what is an investor to do here Gerald? I mean there is likely to be some incredible volatile times ahead, and it’s a scary world. So besides signing up with the great folks at the Trends Journal and staying up on the latest trends, give us some thoughts on how folks out there should be approaching these next few years as we begin to close here today.
Gerald Celente: The best thing to do, and I’ve had my ups and downs in life like everybody else has, is to get in the best shape you can… physically, emotionally and spiritually. Double up on everything that you’re doing. It’s really, really important to be in great shape.
I went through something, just about a year ago somebody really screwed me big time, somebody I put my trust in, hundreds of thousands of dollars, and really did a number on me, and I was really, really depressed seeing this happening, pathological liar that I trusted.
And what I kept doing rather than going down is I doubled up on my workouts, doubled up on my diet, doubled up on everything I could to get stronger, and I pushed out of it big time and rose to a higher level. So that’s my suggestion, is to do what you can for yourself to get in the best shape you can, any way you can, because this thing is going down and only the strong will survive.
Mike Gleason: Yeah, very good advice. Well we’ll leave it there for today. Thanks so much for your time again and for your great insights Gerald. Now before we let you go please tell the listeners about the Trends Journal and how they can follow you on a regular basis. Tell them about all that.
Gerald Celente: Well the Trends Journal is a weekly and there’s no other magazine like it. Like I said, if anyone can show me one like it please let me know and I’ll say I’m full of baloney. It’s the only magazine in the world that tells you what’s going on, what it means, and what’s next.
So if you want to stay ahead and prepare for the future, the Trends Journal, TrendsJournal.com. It’s only $129 a year. If you don’t like it there’s a 30-day money back guarantee. You have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Mike Gleason: Well good stuff. Thanks again Gerald. We always enjoy the conversation, and I can’t wait to have you again in the not too distant future as we discuss how this is all going to play out. Take care, stay safe and have a great week, my friend, until next time.
Gerald Celente: You too. Thank you so much.
Mike Gleason: Well that will do for this week. Thanks again to Gerald Celente, publisher of the renowned Trends Journal. For more information, the website again is TrendsJournal.com, be sure to check that out.
And check back here next Friday for our next Weekly Market Wrap Podcast. Until then, this has been Mike Gleason with Money Metals Exchange. Thanks for listening and have a great weekend everybody.
The Money Metals News Service provides market news and crisp commentary for investors following the precious metals markets.
Colombia’s central bank cuts its benchmark interest rate for the third time this year to provide a further boost to the economy as it continues its countercyclical monetary policy stance. The Central Bank of Colombia (BDBR) cut its policy rate by another 50 basis points to 2.75 percent and has now cut it by 150 points this year following cuts in March and April. In a relatively brief statement, the central bank said the decision took into account a continued decline in inflation expectations due to weak demand, downward revisions of domestic and international growth and an improvement in financing conditions. Colombia’s inflation rate fell to 3.5 percent in April from 3.86 percent in March. The central bank said five of its board members agreed on the 50-point rate cut while the other two members voted to reduce the interest rate by 25 points.