Our opinion of Gold hasn’t changed over the last week of trading – despite the weak weekly close, and the massive surprise from the US labour market last Friday.
As a result, the yellow metal dropped below 1,700 USD and went for an attack of the region around 1,660 USD. Still, we remain mid-term clearly bullish for Gold.
One potential reason for the ‘big’ NFP number is how jobs were calculated and thanks to the massive PPP loan/grants, numbers beat expectations as they did, even though critics will certainly argue that PPP funded jobs should not be counted as “jobs added” to the private sector data.
In addition to that, the BLS already stated in their statement that […]there was also a large number of workers who were classified as employed but absent from work.[…] and that […]if the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to “other reasons” (…), the overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported[…]
However, technically the bearish divergence in the RSI(14) on a daily time-frame plays out now, resulting in a test of the short-term trend-support around 1,660 USD.
Still, as long as we don’t get to see a sustainable break lower, our take for the yellow metal stays clearly bullish and we expect rather than later a stint to the all-time high of around 1,920 USD.
One potential driver for such a move could be a sustainable drop in 10-year US Treasury yields below 0.60% which seems, in our opinion, only a question of time.
The reason here can be found in our expectation of a further “liquidity boost” from the Fed which has pushed its balance sheet above the 7 trillion mark last week and should rather sooner than later result in a further drop in US yields, probably initiated by today’s Fed rate decision at 6pm GMT:
Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between March 11, 2019, to June 9, 2020). Accessed: June 9, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.
In 2015, the value of Gold fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, in 2019, it increased by 18.9%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 28%.
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Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the greenback against major has tumbled to levels not seen three months below 96.30. With prices trading below the 20 Simple Moving Average and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence crossing to the downside, the DXY remains in a downtrend on the daily charts. The technicals are bearish and a solid daily close below 96.25 may inspire a decline towards 95.00. Should 96.25 prove to be reliable support, prices may rebound back towards 97.15 and 97.80.
Economic data from Europe, especially Germany continues to paint a gloomy picture while questions linger over the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal tools against the coronavirus menace. Over the past few days, a vulnerable Dollar has offered the Euro support, but for how long?
Focusing on the technical picture, the EURUSD remains bullish on the daily charts thanks to Dollar weakness. The currency pair is trading above the 20 Simple Moving Average while the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1.1360 may open a clean path towards 1.1450. Should 1.1280 prove to be unreliable support, the EURUSD may sink back towards 1.1200 and 1.1150 respectively.
It is becoming clear that the Japanese Yen remains in bid despite the “risk-on” sentiment with global growth fears and trade tensions stimulating appetite for safe-haven assets. A weakening Dollar is also playing a role in the USDJPY’s descent. The downside is building momentum with a breakdown below 107.00 opening a path towards 105.90.
USDCAD sinks deeper into the abyss
This currency pair is under intense pressure on the daily charts. There have been consistently lower lows and lower highs while the MACD trades to the downside. Sustained weakness below 1.3500 may encourage a decline towards 1.3300.
EURGBP breakout in play
A picture is worth a thousand words.
The EURGBP is slowly approaching the 0.8850 support level. A breakdown below this point may invite a decline towards 0.8700 which is 150 pips away. If 0.8850 proves to be reliable support, prices may rebound back towards 0.9000.
Commodity spotlight – Gold
Where Gold concludes this week will be heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve meeting and Dollar’s valuation.
Intraday bulls may have a chance to push the metal higher if an hourly close above $1720 is achieved today. A breakout above this point could inspire a move towards $1747.
If $1720 proves too much for buyers to handle, prices retrace back to $1670.
Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
Japan’s GDP for the 1st quarter improved slightly in the final reading
The fall of XAGJPY on the chart means that the yen is “stronger” than silver. At present, both silver (as a precious metal) and the Japanese yen are regarded by market participants as protective assets against a possible recession in the global economy. In particular, World Bank warns of such risks in its review. According to it, the global GDP by the end of 2020 may fall by 5.2% due to the Covid-19 pandemic. This will be the first time since 1960, when World Bank’s research began to be published. At the same time, the overall GDP of developed countries may collapse by 7%, and that of developing countries – by 2.5%. Against this pessimistic backdrop, Japan’s economic performance is not so bad yet. Japan’s GDP in the first quarter of 2020 in the final reading fell by only 2.2% in annual terms. The first edition of GDP was worse, since its decline was estimated at 3.4%. Sustainable economies typically support exchange rates. Silver, in turn, may be less attractive than gold. Global industry accounts for up to 40% of silver demand, which, like GDP, may be in stagnation due to the coronavirus. In contrast, gold is much more widely used for investment. Note that the outcome of the Fed’s 10 June meeting may have a significant impact on the dynamics of precious metals.
Equities are taking stock ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision due later Wednesday. Asian stocks are mixed after Wall Street’s retreat overnight, although US futures are showing gains at the time of writing.
The Nasdaq 100 however breached the 10,000 mark for a historic first, as the top 20 Nasdaq stocks such as Amazon, Apple and Microsoft continue to lead gains and take a larger share of the benchmark.
Global stocks have added US$ 22 trillion to its market cap since hitting a four-year low on March 24, with the unprecedented amounts of monetary policy support making its way into the financial markets. With equity investors evidently taking stock ahead of the FOMC meeting, investors will be wondering if the Fed will give stocks fresh reasons to continue its seemingly relentless climb.
Although the FOMC is unlikely to alter any of its policy settings this week, with US interest rates already near zero, Fed chair Jerome Powell may provide clues on the outlook for US monetary policy and the central bank’s lending programmes to help American businesses weather the challenges ahead. The central bank is expected to reiterate its pledge to continue supporting the US economy in this post-lockdown era, and such dovish tones should provide the platform for further gains in stock markets.
Global investors will also be eyeing the Fed’s targets for growth and employment, in light of last Friday’s positively shocking US May non-farm payrolls report. However, Powell isn’t expected to get carried away by that one single print, but stick to his cautionary tone over the trajectory for growth and employment. At least the weaker Greenback can help alleviate the pressures on the world’s largest economy, with the Dollar index now drawing much closer to that 96 psychological level after weakening almost every day since May 25.
Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
Smaller than estimated euro-zone GDP contraction bullish for EURUSD
Euro-zone Q1 GDP contraction was revised downward: euro-zone economy shrank by 3.6% on quarter in the first three months of 2020, after a second estimate of a 3.8% contraction and following a 0.1% Q4 growth. This is bullish for EURUSD.
Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, discuss movements in the gold markets since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.
In mid-January, 2020, COMEX open interest (OI) set a new record of nearly 800,000 contracts. Swap dealers as usual supplied the market by going short 205,679 contracts on January 14, also a record. They probably expected to reduce their risk by purchasing physical at spot to but along came COVID-19 and spot physical supply was suddenly not readily available as refiners and shippers abruptly shut down.
The shorts attempted to shake the market to get back on side. OI fell to 650,000 contracts but this did not dent the price. A second push took OI down to 550,000, temporarily dropping the gold price to $1470 on March 19. OI continued to fall, but the gold price did not follow as it usually does, recovering sharply to higher highs in mid-April as speculators themselves had decided to offset the undersupplied spot physical market by the unusual practice of purchasing on COMEX for delivery.
The Swaps have not managed to square their net shorts, which on May 26 were 182,864, only 25,815 less than on January 14. In other words, with open interest down 40%, the Swaps have only reduced their net exposure by 12.4%. Scotia Mocatta was an obvious casualty which we know about because it was owned by a public bank. The pressure continues. This week 45,259 June contracts stood for delivery, amounting to 140.8 tonnes of gold.
American money managers and individuals are apparently using COMEX to take physical delivery and being in a hurry, they were willing to overpay to do so because of the COVID-19 temporary shortage in the physical spot market. Meanwhile, global gold ETFs are setting new records for their physical holdings every week, reaching 3,510 tonnes this week, up 1,110 tonnes or more than 46% since the start of the year. The squeeze seems to be on.
The gold price took a hit this week as those who bought it against the possibility of a global economic collapse were quick to sell when the amusingly inaccurate U.S. jobs report on Friday seemed to signal that better days were just around the corner. Non-workers on payroll thanks to the Payroll Protection Program were not counted as unemployed. A temporary miscalculation we are sure. But the end of the world was not, in our view, the reason to own gold in the first place. The unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus designed to prevent Armageddon is and the consequences of those efforts lie dead ahead, in our view.
This article is the collaboration of Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, and reflects the thinking that has helped make them successful gold investors. Rudi is the current Chairman and CEO of Seabridge and Jim is one of its largest shareholders.
Disclaimer: The authors are not registered or accredited as investment advisors. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed reliable but is not necessarily complete and accuracy is not guaranteed. Any securities mentioned on this site are not to be construed as investment or trading recommendations specifically for you. You must consult your own advisor for investment or trading advice. This article is for informational purposes only.
Disclosures: 1) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The authors are wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not involved in any aspect of the content preparation. The authors were not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the authors to publish or syndicate this article. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy. 2) Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony: we, or members of our immediate household or family, own shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: Seabridge Gold. We personally are, or members of our immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: Seabridge Gold. 3) Seabridge Gold is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. 4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports. 5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.
Greg Johnson, chairman and CEO of Metallic Minerals, talks with Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable, about the company’s drill results, as high as 7,459 g/t silver, at the Keno Silver Project in the Yukon.
Maurice Jackson: Joining us for our conversation today is Greg Johnson, of the Metallic Group of Companies. here to discuss some exciting updates that are occurring simultaneously as each member company respectively continues to demonstrate their proof of concept, and also to discuss exciting recent results in developments with Metallic Minerals Corp. (MMG:TSX.V; MMNGF:OTCMKTS), specifically. Mr. Johnson, for someone new to the Metallic Group of Companies, please introduce us, and share the opportunities they present for shareholders.
Greg Johnson: Well, we have had the opportunity over the last couple of years, Maurice, to bring together a group of very experienced explorationists, recognizing that we’ve had this bear market cycle and that we were going through a consolidation period, and to build on the experiences that we had in the past that were so successful. Myself, I’m one of the original co-founders at NovaGold, and many of the people with me in the Metallic Group are NovaGold alumni who were involved in the acquisitions and expansion of those assets. We also have some great people from Ivanhoe, Stillwater Mining and GoldFieldsits a terrific team that’s got a long track record of successful exploration.
We stood back and said, okay, the last cycle that ran from 2000 to 2011 at the peak, and then we’ve gone through a bear market from 2011 to around early 2016, and now we’ve been building a base for the last several years. It looks like to us, and to many analysts in the sector, that we’re now just in the beginning phases of what could turn into the next multi-year metals bull market.
So, collectively we considered what were the key elements at NovaGold that stood out and allowed us to create so much value. And, Maurice, those included the fact that we had come through a bear market, that we had a highly experienced team in place, and that we had positioned that group into assets that had the potential to be tier 1 assets at the bottom of the metal price cycle. Basically, we were ready to move on them as the cycle started to take off in 2001 and that was just a tremendous period of value creation.
In the Metallic Group, what we’ve done this time, looking around at the available opportunities, the things that have come to the fore have been not large greenfields assets in very remote locations, but in this cycle, what we’ve been focusing on are these opportunities in brownfields districts; districts where you already have producing mines, you already have the infrastructure, you already have a mill and power and all those things that make project development straightforward and lower cost. We’ve been able to go after assets that had they been controlled by majors they would’ve already acquired all the ground in the district around them. Because these were smaller companies, there were district-scale land positions around these producing assets that we were able to pick upoften requiring several acquisitionsand in which we saw the potential for tier 1 assets, with the application of some new exploration models and new technologies.
We were able to do this at the bottom of the metal price cycle, so in that way very similar to NovaGold, and with these assets now in place in the three Metallic Group companies, we think we are uniquely positioned to be able to advance these assets in gold and silver, with Metallic Minerals; in platinum group metals and battery metals with Group Ten Metals Inc. (PGE:TSX.V; PGEZF:OTCQB; 5D32:FSE); and in copper and gold with the newest company in our group, Granite Creek Copper Ltd. (GCX:TSX.V).
Maurice Jackson: You say that conservatively, but if one looks at the business acumen for anyone listening to our conversation right now, the commanding land packages that you have, they are remarkable, and it just goes to show that the combination of these synergies with proven professionals within the Metallic Group of Companies, with key acquisitions during the low part of a metal price cycle, the opportunity to maximize shareholder returns is just brilliant. The probability is certainly increased with your management team, here. Mr. Johnson, can you provide us with some examples of how these opportunities came together and what distinguishes the Metallic Group of Companies from their peers?
Greg Johnson: As I indicated, many of the people involved in the group were part of the original NovaGold team and, so, we looked back on that experience and identified the factors that made a difference in terms of that tremendous value creation. I’ll just take just a second, Maurice, to walk through the NovaGold assets and the history there just a little bit, and then we’ll touch a bit on how we’re applying a similar approach in terms of strategy with the Metallic Group.
In those early days at NovaGold, it may be hard to believe when you look at a company today that has a US$3.5 billion market cap, but it was the same size in 2001 as Metallic Minerals, Group Ten, or Granite Creek are today. But, we were positioned in that bear market cycle, very similar to today, to be able to go after the Donlin Gold asset which, today, is a 50/50 partnership with Barrick and NovaGold. We picked that asset up at the bottom of the gold market cycle in 2001 and, over the next several years, saw a massive, fourfold expansion of that resource base to some 40 million ounces of reserves and just huge value creation during that period because all the ingredients were in place. We were in the right part of the market cycle, we had the right team in place, and we had an asset that was big enough to be of interest to the major mining companies and, therefore, the market paid attention. And so, over those next couple of years, we just saw tremendous new interest come in.
The second asset that we identified was the Galore Creek copper-gold-silver asset. We picked this up at the bottom of the copper market cycle in 2003 from Rio Tinto. Today, that’s 50/50 owned by Newmont and Teck; it’s in the final permitting and construction phases. When you look at the value of their purchase plus the money invested in that asset, it’s over a billion-dollar asset. So again, illustrating from those humble beginnings the kind of value creation that’s possible.
The third opportunity that came along in the NovaGold history was the Ambler asset, now in Trilogy Metals, which was a spinout out of NovaGold, originally called NovaCopper. We picked that up at the bottom of the zinc market cycle, expanded the resource significantly, advanced that through the various engineering phases, just like the other two, to de-risk it and create value. And today, Trilogy alone has a US$300 million market cap. When you look at the commitments by its partner, South32, they’re going to spend another $150 to $200 million. So, another half a billion dollars in value and it again illustrates how much value can be created in these situations.
In the Metallic Group today, many of the people involved were part of the team responsible for those NovaGold acquisitions and the expansion and de-risking of those assets, and what we’ve done here in this cycle is to go after four unique opportunities. The first one, in the second half of 2016, was Metallic Minerals’ acquisition of the eastern half of the Keno Hill Silver District, one of the world’s highest-grade silver camps in the Yukon Territory. We picked up and consolidated that portion of the district and the targets that we’re looking at here are similar to recent Alexco discoveries: effectively, 50 million ounce plus high-grade silver deposits. We see the potential to create similar value to the operating company Alexco, next door, which currently has about a $400 million market cap whereas, at the peak of the last cycle, Maurice, they were a billion-dollar company.
The second opportunity that came into the Metallic Group was the lower Stillwater Complex in Montana. We picked up this asset in 2017, at the bottom of the platinum group metal and nickel prices, recognizing the potential that it could host disseminated bulk tonnage, nickel, copper, platinum group element deposits, similar to what are being worked in South Africa by Ivanhoe and Anglo, in some of what are the most profitable platinum mines or projects in the world. Just a few months after we announced that acquisition, Sibanye acquired Stillwater Mines, a company similar in size to Alexco, for $2.2 billion, for their two adjacent mines and they’ve since developed a third. So those developments have daylighted and crystallized the potenteial value that we recognized as well.
The third opportunity came in 2018 with the Stu copper-gold project for Granite Creek. This is in the Carmacks-Minto copper belt in the Yukon and was initially discovered by Alexco’s predecessor, United Keno Hill Mines, but later developed by Capstone Mining. At one time, the Minto mine was the highest-grade open-pit copper mine in the world. We see the potential here, a piece of property that’s been really off the market for more than 50 years, but has the same geologic characteristics as the Minto mine. And we see the opportunity here for a billion-pound copper system, similar to what’s already been produced at Minto, that would come along with very significant gold and silver credits. So, what’s our target for value? We think you could create a Minto/Capstone type market value with further exploration there. Pretty exciting.
The fourth, and most recent, opportunity that came into the group was the La Plata asset and this one is, again, quite interesting. It’s kind of a hybrid between a Keno Hill silver district with high-grade silver and gold and at the center of the district is a precious metals-rich porphyry system very similar to Galore Creek, which our team was part of the key expansion and advancement of. So, this is a great fit for our team’s expertise. What we see here is a combination of significant silver and gold, precious metal systems and, potentially, a bulk tonnage type system at the center, based on historical drilling work by Rio Tinto and Freeport in the district. We’re excited to see this asset move forward and, again, a benchmark for value might be Alexco/Galore Creek.
We’ve assembled what we believe are assets that have the potential to become tier 1 assets for the majors into the portfolio of each of these individual Metallic Group companies with their respective focus in silver and gold, platinum group metals and nickel, and copper-gold. In addition, we are keeping the overhead low between the three companies, with a shared office, back-office team, CFO and dedicated technical teams for each of these metal types, as well as significant management expertise in project financing. So, we think this is a fairly unique situation. There are other groups of companies, but we believe the Metallic Group’s experience in value creation and application of a common business strategy toward the acquisitions and advancement of these assets in these proven productive districts has the potential to deliver superior returns for investors. We’re excited to be taking these projects forward in each of the three Metallic Group companies.
Maurice Jackson: You provided some historical context about the market timing for NovaGold, let’s see how that fits into the narrative here because things have been basically a roller coaster since the early part of 2016 when we had a significant run that fizzled out only to resume a couple of years later. And now, here we are in 2020 where we are in these uncharted and unprecedented times. Greg, where do you see the metals markets going, for base and precious metals, respectively?
Greg Johnson: That’s a really interesting question. Let’s bring in a couple of charts here to illustrate; there’s a great chart that was put together by the Incrementum Group that does an excellent job of illustrating these long-term commodity cycles and where we are today. In this chart, they’ve taken the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index and they’ve divided it by the S&P 500 to give you a reference for a relative value between commodities and the broad market equities. What this chart does a great job of showing is that, since 1970, we’ve had three major commodity cycles, with the most recent one starting with the 19992001 bear market, peaking in the 20092011 period, and culminating in a bear market that we believe is just wrapping up now. It shows that those cycles are decade-long in length and that, even before the market crash or instability that we saw back here just recently in March, commodities with this benchmark were at one of the lowest real prices in decades.
So, the adage is, of course, if you’re going to do well, you want to buy low and sell high. Well, we have good indications that, very similar to 1999 and 2001, we’re at the beginnings of a multi-year bull market. We are certainly nowhere near a top for commodities and mining, with precious metals, in particular, we are in a pretty unique position; a position that you only see once every decade or so, in terms of value. I think there’s a tremendous opportunity here with what’s happening with central banks, and probably what’s going to happen to stimulate the global economies, and that we’re going to move toward even greater fiscal stimulation that’s likely to include infrastructure development. This is going to be good for metals, starting with precious metals and later to move into the base metals.
And, Maurice, if we drill down in more detail with this last cyclelet’s take 1995 to presentwe saw a trough period in the commodity sector in 19992001. Of course, your listeners will recall that was the dot-com bubble when those equities were very highly valued and, of course, mining shares and commodities were out of favor. What you can see in the second, more detailed chart, is that this breaks out that Goldman Sachs Commodity Index into its three main components: energy is shown in orange, base metals in green, and the precious metals in purple. So, you can see that the exact timing of the lows and highs aren’t exactly the same for each. There are some differences there but, in general, they troughed in the 19992001 period. They peaked in the mid to late 2000s and they all rolled over together in a bear market that many analysts say saw the first bottoming in late 2015, early 2016. It’s been moving laterally since then.
The precious metals now indicate that we are in the early stages of building on a new, likely multi-year cycle. We think there’s a lot of similarities with that prior major cycle where we are just coming out of a bear market, experiencing undervaluation, underinvestment in the precious metals and mining sector in general, and that things are getting started with the precious metals as the lead once again. With base metals, there’s probably going to be a bit of a lag, but we think that the likelihood is that they’re going to kick in as well. Investors have one of these opportunities currently in the sector to be getting in at what may be one of those rare situations that only come along every decade or so.
Maurice Jackson: The market conditions are shaping up to what may be one of those historical opportunities and, given what you shared, a lot of these stocks are still massively discounted, despite the moves we’ve seen so far, year to date. Let’s discuss the value proposition before us in small-cap exploration/development shares and, in particular, the Metallic Group of Companies.
Greg Johnson: I think you raise a good point. I mean, oftentimes, investors recognize that historically the small-cap shares can have much greater leverage and greater gains and if we look specifically in the mining space, we’ve got this chart here that illustrates large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap mining. Since the peak of the last cycle in 2011, we’ve used the GDX for the large-cap shares, the GDXJ, which is $400 million market cap and higher, for the mid-cap, and then the Toronto Venture index, as an index reference for the small and micro-cap companies. What we can see is that we’ve been going sideways since 2016, coming out of that bear market and that, even with the recent market turbulence, the large-cap shares, as they’ve been showing free cash flow, growth in earnings and potentially expanded dividends, are starting to attract new investment.
We can see that the GDX has now surpassed its values from late last year. The GDXJ has gotten to the same level and is starting to break out again. It’s early days on the small-cap names and they’re just beginning to rebound, as well. But if we look back historically, the mid-caps on a percentage basis are likely to surpass the large caps. The micro-cap, small-cap names, just to get back to their previous bull market ranges, may need to see many multiples of current prices and we would anticipate that, as this market matures, more interest will flow into those smaller-cap names. If you take an example of Barrick or Newmont, could they double or triple from here? Sure, that’s possible. Are they going to go up to five or tenfold? Probably not likely. But these smaller-cap names, because of their heavily discounted values that they were trading at and their potential through exploration, these names have much more leverage and could result in turbocharging peoples’ portfolio, if they’ve selected high-quality names.
Maurice Jackson: Let’s do a compare and contrast, if we could, with NovaGold and the gains they delivered to shareholders versus their peers.
Greg Johnson: Sure. Looking back at that past cycle, if we look at the metals themselves in that period from 2001 to the first half of 2007, the metal prices for gold and copper went up three- to six-fold. The large-cap ETF, like the GDX or XAU, went up tenfold, but, because of the resource definition, expansion, and de-risking that you saw in NovaGold, the returns for early investors were as high as a 100X. So that was ten times the performance of those broad indices in that situation. We’re not arguing today that we’re looking at another NovaGold necessarily, but it illustrates the kind of leverage that that kind of pre-production company can deliver in the right market conditions, with the right asset and the right team.
Maurice Jackson: One of the many shared virtues, and a common theme, of the Metallic Group of Companies is that they provide speculators exposure to different commodities, all located in North America, in prolific high-grade mining jurisdictions. All three have the objective to table a maiden 43-101 resource in the next 12 to 24 months. All three are planning to drill this year and all three have key news flow expected. Talk to us about these exciting times.
Greg Johnson: We’re already starting to see investors who haven’t been looking at the mining space for five, sometimes ten years, coming back and recognizing the caliber of these assets in the Metallic Group companies, the potential, the background of the team and the track record of success. And so, it is exciting times for shareholders of the companies and, I think, for investors who are maybe just now looking at the exploration and development space.
Maurice Jackson: Let’s move to Metallic Minerals, the first company in the group, which was launched in mid-2016 with the initial acquisition of your high-grade, or should I say ultra-high-grade, silver project. Since then, you’ve added a second very high-quality asset in Colorado. Now, one company with two very exciting projects both with very promising potential. Take us to the Yukon first and share the recent developments at the Keno Hill Silver Project.
Greg Johnson: The Keno Hill Silver District is one of the highest-grade silver districts in the world. It’s had this tremendous history of nearly 300 million ounces of past production and current resources. You’ve got the recent discoveries by Alexco Resources in the district that have demonstrated the potential for new discoveries. Metallic has built, over the last several years, the second-largest land position in the district, consolidating that land alongside Alexco and, recently, we have been announcing some of our advancements as we’ve prioritized the targets, moved several into advanced stage development, and identified discoveries of large-scale earlier stage targets that we’re advancing in parallel.
Maurice Jackson: Mr. Johnson, Metallic Minerals caught speculators’ attention last week with its press release discussing new modeling along with an extended channel sample coming in at over 7,000 grams per tonne silver. Put that into some kind of context for us.
Greg Johnson: That was an exciting news release on our Western Keno targets, including Formo, which is an area that had an historical open-pit mine at surface, is right on the highway and features several levels of exploration/development. Those channel samples on those three levels basically illustrate that we have silver grades of over 1,000 grams per ton, which are very significant grades for any silver deposit, and that we have several shoots that are open at depth and are on-trend with some of the biggest producers in the district. We’re going to be announcing additional results on some of the other target areas, including the expansion work on the East Keno targets where we’ve defined another 10 multi-kilometer targets. So it is an exciting time for the company, and particularly for the Keno Silver Project.
Maurice Jackson: Your neighbor in the Keno Hill District, Alexco Resources, it looks like it is going to be restarting production soon. Where does Keno Hill fit into the global silver picture in terms of silver grade, production, and potential?
Greg Johnson: We understand that Alexco is waiting for that final permit to restart production and that could land at any time. We point to the tremendous geologic work that it has done over the last several years: it built nearly a hundred million ounce resource and demonstrated that this historical district has a lot more to be discovered. Geologically, one of the closest analogs to the Keno district is the Coeur d’Alene Silver District in Idaho. A lot of your listeners might be familiar with Coeur d’Alene as several major silver focused mining companies come from there, including Coeur and Hecla. That district has produced over a billion ounces of silver from similar type high-grade vein systems to Keno Hill. They are mining at three kilometers depth in the Coeur d’Alene district. The deepest mine in Keno Hill is just 300 meters depth, so we are really just getting started there.
Last year, Alexco drilled some of the deepest holes in the district, at 400 meters, and then a couple of test holes at 500 and 600 meters which showed that mineralization keeps going. We would anticipate, as a similar system, that with further exploration it’s going to continue to depth. We see Keno Hill as lining up with some of those major silver districts of the world, like Coeur d’Alene or some of the well-known ones in Mexico and South America and that it’s just underexplored for its potential. With our recent acquisitions and consolidation alongside Alexco, we’re very bullish on the opportunity there.
Maurice Jackson: What is on the deck for the Keno Project over the next three to six months?
Greg Johnson: As we speak, we are mobilizing our teams to the sites and we’re going to be kicking off activities. We’ll be drilling both on the advanced-stage targets at Keno as well as doing refinement test work, including geophysics, on some of the early-stage targets in anticipation of also drilling some of those early-stage targets. So, it’s going to be an exciting field program. We’ve got a series of news events that are in progress for Keno Hill and we look forward to updating our shareholders and the market on that news.
Maurice Jackson: Moving south, Metallic Minerals made a strategic acquisition last fall in the southwestern United States with the La Plata Project. What developments are going on there right now?
Greg Johnson: We are quite excited about La Plata. It shares many similarities with Keno Hill as a historical high-grade silver and gold producing district. It also has many similarities with NovaGold’s former Galore Creek project. And so, as a high precious metals porphyry system, we’re excited about the combined potential of those high-grade precious metal targets, as well as those bulk tonnage copper silver gold targets. The district hasn’t seen exploration since the 1970s. It was held by Freeport up until the market low for copper in 2002 when the two parties that we acquired it from signed the agreement to purchase it at the bottom of the metal price cycle. And so, we are the first company to do modern systematic exploration at La Plata and we see a tremendous opportunity there to build on and to add value.
Maurice Jackson: Truly impressive to see an opportunity like La Plata, in terms of exploration potential and great infrastructure. This seems like the perfect fit for Metallic Minerals. Please take us through the next steps as far as the La Plata project and what you have in store for us.
Greg Johnson: Shortly after the acquisition, which we announced last October, we kicked off district-wide surface sampling and remote sensing studies. This winter, we’ve been doing block modeling on the drilling and our recent sampling and we expect to be able to deliver the results from that soon. But, I can say we’re already seeing a multi-kilometer scale system. We see significant precious metals enrichment in the district around the porphyry system itself. The modeling work that we’re doing on the drilling and surface sampling above the porphyry system suggests we’ve got something quite special here and we’re excited to be applying some of the same tools that have been so successful at Keno Hill on the La Plata project.
Maurice Jackson: Switching gears, Mr. Johnson, please share the current capital structure from Metallic Minerals.
Greg Johnson: We have about a hundred million shares outstanding and have about $3 million in the bank, with no debt, so we are in good shape to be able to complete the next major milestones on the company without needing to raise additional capital. We have the luxury that, if the market continues to be robust and we want to accelerate our activities, we could take in additional funds but we’re well positioned to do what we need to do on these projects, with the objective of being able to move toward first resources over the next year. I’m quite excited about that position.
Maurice Jackson: What would you like to say to current and prospective shareholders regarding the opportunity that is before us right now?
Greg Johnson: I think when we look at the sector, this is an exciting time for investors who are just starting to look at the mining space or maybe who have been in the mining space in the past, especially when looking at some of the high-quality exploration/development-stage names. These companies are still vastly undervalued, coming out of a nine-plus year bear market. We believe, based on the analysts that we follow, that the pathway ahead is leading into a multi-year bull market very similar to that following the 19992001 low. And that this, therefore, is a real opportunity for investors to get exposure to the sector and mainly, exposure to the better quality names, like Metallic Minerals.
Silver is still barely off its lows. If you look at the relative value of silver to gold, we recently saw that silver to gold ratio spike to over 120 ounces of silver per ounce of gold. Historically, the silver-gold ratio has been more like 50 to 1. So silver is vastly undervalued relative to gold and we don’t think gold is overvalued. We think gold is going to continue building on what have been higher highs and higher lows, but we believe there’s the opportunity that silver could significantly outperform gold as it starts to catch up, as it has done in other cycles.
Maurice Jackson: You and I were having a discussion about “silver stackers,” those that advocate strong positions in physical bullion, and I shared that, at the intermediary level, you would only have the physical bullion. At the advanced level, is when you take a look at companies that have a proven pedigree of success with a track record, like Metallic Minerals, that are silver focused. So again, for someone who’s a silver stacker, we encourage you to take a look at the following links, that are in the description box below, for both the Metallic Group of Companies and Metallic Minerals.
Mr. Johnson, thank you for coming on the program today. It’s been a real pleasure, sir.
Greg Johnson: Thank you very much, Maurice. It’s been great to talk with you again, and I look forward to hearing from you again, and perhaps from some of your listeners.
Maurice Jackson: All the best to you, sir.
For direct inquiries on the Metallic Group of Companies, please contact Chris Ackerman at 604-629-7800 ext. 1 or you may email: [email protected].
And as a reminder, I’m a licensed representative for Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments, where we provide a number of options to expand your precious metals portfolio from physical delivery, off-shore depositories, and precious metal IRAs. Call me directly at 855-505-1900. That number again is 855-505-1900. Or, you may email, [email protected].
And finally, please subscribe to provenandprobable.com, where we provide mining insights and bullion sales.
Disclosure: 1) Maurice Jackson: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: Metallic Minerals, Granite Creek Copper, Group Ten Metals. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this article: Metallic Minerals, Granite Creek Copper and Group Ten Metals are sponsors of Proven and Probable. Proven and Probable disclosures are listed below. 2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: Group Ten Metals, Granite Creek Copper and Metallic Minerals. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. As of the date of this article, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports has a consulting relationship with Group Ten Metals, Granite Creek Copper and Metallic Minerals. Please click here for more information. 3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy. 4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports. 5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own shares of Group Ten Metals, Granite Creek Copper, Metallic Minerals and Newmont Corp., companies mentioned in this article.
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Technical analyst Clive Maund charts the cannabis company and explains why he calls it an “immediate strong buy.”
Further to its being recommended a few days back for an upside breakout from the current bull Pennant pattern leading to another sharp upleg, this brief update is to point out that the pattern in Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB:NYSE; ACB:TSX) looks even more bullish now with a continued steady volume dieback, so that at the time of writing only about 3 million shares have been traded so far today compared with over 100 million in one day when it blasted higher in the middle of May. The volume pattern looks very bullish indeed and is consistent with a bull Pennant completing, and volume is now so light relatively speaking that an upside breakout looks imminent.
Aurora Cannabis is therefore rated AN IMMEDIATE STRONG BUY for another sharp upleg that is expected to commence very soon.
Another upleg in this large cannabis stock should have a positive effect on many stocks across the sector, including Icanic Brands that we went for a day later than Aurora.
Aurora Cannabis Inc., ACB, ACB.TSX, trading at $14.27, C$19.20 on 4th June 2020.
Originally posted on CliveMaund.com at 2.05 pm EDT on 4th June 2020.
Clive Maund has been president of www.clivemaund.com, a successful resource sector website, since its inception in 2003. He has 30 years’ experience in technical analysis and has worked for banks, commodity brokers and stockbrokers in the City of London. He holds a Diploma in Technical Analysis from the UK Society of Technical Analysts.
Disclosure: 1) Clive Maund: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: None. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this article: None. CliveMaund.com disclosures below. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector. 2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. 3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy. 4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports. 5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.
Charts provided by the author.
CliveMaund.com Disclosure: The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.
If Americans thought the U.S. Government would be in serious trouble as its ability to service its ballooning debt would become unmanageable, guess again. After the U.S. Government added nearly $3 trillion more debt in just the past eight months (fiscal year), the interest paid on the public debt actually declined versus last year.
According to TreasuryDirect.gov, the U.S. public debt increased from $22.8 trillion to $25.7 trillion during fiscal 2020 (October to May). Thus, total U.S. federal debt has increased by nearly $3 trillion in eight months compared to $1.2 trillion last year… for the entire year!! So, with $3 trillion more debt on the U.S. Government’s balance sheet, you would think the interest expense would have also increased.
NOPE… the U.S. Government paid $337 billion of interest expense so far this year (Oct-May) compared to $354 billion during the same period last year:
How did the U.S. Government get away with paying less interest expense on $3 trillion more debt?? The U.S. Government was able to lower its interest expense because the interest rate on the debt declined significantly over the past 12 months. The average interest rate on U.S. public debt in May 2019 was 2.50% compared to 1.84% in May 2020, highlighted in (YELLOW).
However, the biggest factor that pulled down the average interest rates was the change in the rate of U.S. Treasury Bills highlighted in BLUE. The Treasury Bill’s interest rate fell from 2.47% in May 2019 to 0.40% in May 2020. That’s a massive decline in the interest expense paid to Treasury Bill holders.
And, if we look at the next chart, we can see that in May 2020, the outstanding U.S. Treasury Bills, which accounted for $4.6 trillion, was 45% of the $10.2 trillion of Treasury Notes. But, the total interest expense paid during Oct-May from these Bills was only $26 billion (18%) compared to $141 billion paid from the outstanding Treasury Notes. Simply put, with total U.S. Treasury Bills being a little less than half of the Treasury Notes, the interest paid on these Bills was only 18% of the Notes.
Of course, the falling interest rate on the Treasury Bills was partly due to the enormous Stock Market sell-off as investors moved out of stocks and into Treasuries for protection. But, the Treasury Bill interest rate should have bottomed in March to coincide with the bottom in the U.S. stock indexes… CORRECT? NOPE.. again. Here are the Treasury Bill’s interest rates for the past five months:
Treasury Bill’s Interest Rate:
Jan 2020 = 1.68%
Feb 2020 = 1.64%
Mar 2020 = 1.22%
Apr 2020 = 0.60%
May 2020 = 0.40%
With the Dow Jones Index ROARING BACK from a low of 18,200 on March 23rd to a high of 25,750 at the end of May, a staggering 41% increase, wouldn’t the Treasury Bill’s interest rate head back higher??? Yes, it would have if the Federal Reserve wasn’t buying Trillions of U.S. Treasuries. By the Federal Reserve adding Treasuries to its balance sheet, that has kept the Treasury Bill’s interest rate artificially low, thus paying Bondholders less for holding the debt… LOL.
Most Americans have no clue that the U.S. Economy and Financial System are one giant PONZI SCHEME. And, as this Ponzi Scheme grows exponentially larger, the reason to own PHYSICAL PRECIOUS METALS becomes even more important. In the past, if an investor were smart, they would allocate about 5% of their assets to physical gold and silver. Now, it seems prudent that is should be at least 25%.
The Money Metals News Service provides market news and crisp commentary for investors following the precious metals markets.
The precious metals sector is now set up for a correction that could be quite severe, which is evident on the charts, but also made more likely by the fundamentals where we see a return to “risk on” as a result of ongoing massive money injection by the Fed coupled with this being a seasonally weak summer period for the metals ahead of their seasonally strongest time, which runs from late July through September. The return of “risk on” will be greatly encouraged by the stock market breaking out to new highs which will suck money out of the PM sector to be deployed in biotech, blockchain, the FAANGS and the better cannabis stocks, but it should return as the economy gets going again and all the newly created money starts to drive inflation sharply higher.
Starting with gold’s 6-month chart we see that it is weakening following a failed upside breakout from a Symmetrical Triangle, and is it now close to breaking the first line of support shown. Once that fails it is likely to head down to the next support level near to its 200-day moving average.
On gold’s 13-month chart we can see that while gold is firmly in a bull market there is plenty of room for it to react back significantly without breaking down from its uptrend channel.
The 6-month chart for GDX shows it completing what looks like a Head-and-Shoulders top at a quite a high level, and with this morning’s drop it could soon break down from the pattern leading to a potentially steep drop.
On the 13-month chart for GDX we can see that there is plenty of room for it to drop, and the minimum objective in the event of it breaking below nearby support is the support in the $26 zone, and given that once the psychology changes, declines in the sector tend to be self feeding, it could go quite a lot lower than that.
Silver just topped out at the resistance at a line of peaks and looks set to react back at least to the support shown on the 13-month chart, and could easily drop further if that fails.
One silver stock that actually has a strong chart overall that we bought a few weeks ago, Kootenay Silver Inc. (KTN:TSX.V), hit a trendline target as we can see on its 13-month chart and could get dragged down significantly with most other stocks in the sector. So it is thought better to take out now modest profits in this immediately and then wait for the chance to buy it back when the sector correction is thought to have run its course.
The conclusion is that the correct tactics with respect to the precious metals sector are to either step aside, or hedge with either leveraged inverse ETFs such as DUST, or better still Puts in say GLD and GDX, or a combination of the two. The corrective phase will probably be over by early August.
Originally posted on CliveMaund.com at 11.00 am EDT on 5th June 2020.
Clive Maund has been president of www.clivemaund.com, a successful resource sector website, since its inception in 2003. He has 30 years’ experience in technical analysis and has worked for banks, commodity brokers and stockbrokers in the City of London. He holds a Diploma in Technical Analysis from the UK Society of Technical Analysts.
Disclosure: 1) Clive Maund: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: None. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this article: None. CliveMaund.com disclosures below. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector. 2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. 3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy. 4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports. 5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.
Charts provided by the author.
CliveMaund.com Disclosure: The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.