Hungary’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time in four years, surprising analysts who had expected the rate to be kept steady. The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) cut its central bank base rate by 15 basis points to 0.75 percent as of June 24, the central bank said in a brief statement prior to its monetary policy statement. The last time the central bank cut its base rate was in May 2016 when it was also cut by 15 basis points. NBH left its other main rates unchanged, including the overnight deposit rate at minus 0.05 percent, and the overnight and one-week collateralised loan rates at 1.85 percent, respectively.
USDJPY is trading at 107.17; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 107.00 and then resume moving upwards to reach 107.75. Another signal is favor of further uptrend will be a rebound from the upside border of the Triangle pattern. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 106.55. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 105.65.
XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”
XAUUSD is trading at 1751.00; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1745.00 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1780.00. Another signal in favor of further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1730.00. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1695.00.
USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”
USDRUB is trading at 69.24; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 69.35 and then resume moving downwards to reach 67.65. Another signal in favor of further downtrend will be a rebound from the upside border of the Triangle pattern. However, the bearish scenario may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 70.05. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 71.10. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the Triangle’s downside border and fix below 68.95.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
After years of rumours, it’s now official: Apple is breaking up with Intel.
At its Worldwide Developers Conference 2020, which kicked off on Monday, Apple announced plans to sell Mac computers using its own processors beginning this year, moving away from Intel’s chips. The news sent Apple to a new all-time high with a year-to-date climb that has now exceeded 22 percent.
Intel’s stock still managed to track broader gains in US stock markets, although it remains some 13 percent below its year-to-date high.
The breakup of the 15-year relationship however carries more symbolic value than financial pain.
In its 2019 financial year, Mac computers accounted for less than 10 percent of Apple’s total revenue. Over the prior three financial years (FY 2016-2018), fewer than 20 million MAC computers were sold per FY, which is less than half of the total number of iPads sold. iPhones remain the company’s primary hardware product, making up about 77 percent of total units sold, while accounting for more than half of total revenue according to Bloomberg data. Meanwhile, it’s estimated that the Mac line of computers accounts for less than five percent of Intel’s annual revenue.
While this latest move appears to be chipping away at Intel’s position as the world’s largest chipmaker, Apple’s own position is also being challenged.
The Cupertino-based company is facing a backlash from third-party developers who will play a crucial role in ensuring that apps can still function well on the new Macs that are set to be powered by Apple’s own processors by year-end. Apple however appears to have extended an olive branch to the developer community on Monday by allowing them to challenge App store policies.
At the same time, US and European regulators are scrutinising Apple’s policies over its App Store, which contributed about 18 percent of Apple’s total revenue in the 2019 fiscal year, a figure which exceeded US$ 46 billion. The iPhone maker is also still contending with the ill effects of the coronavirus pandemic. Just last week, Apple announced that it will reclose 11 stores in Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, and South Carolina amid a resurgence in Covid-19 cases. While the immediate impact appears minor for the time being, a larger wave of US lockdowns could erode Apple’s sales, considering its reliance on hardware sales.
Even when faced against such headwinds, markets are still holding up Apple as the world’s most valuable company, with a market cap of US$1.555 trillion. Given the grip it has over its software and hardware ecosystems, Apple’s shares are expected to ride out potential valleys to come and climb onto loftier peaks.
Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming a Shooting Star pattern close to the resistance level, EURUSD is expected to start reversing. The downside target remains at 1.1155. At the same time, there is another scenario, which implies that the price may continue trading upwards without testing the support level at 1.1155.
USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”
As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY is still trading not far from the support area and forming reversal patterns, such as Hammer. At the moment, the pair is reversing. The current situation implies that the market may resume the ascending tendency towards 107.65. Still, there is an opposite scenario, which says that the instrument may break the support area and continue trading downwards to reach 106.45.
EURGBP, “Euro vs. Great Britain Pound”
As we can see in the H4 chart, after testing the resistance level and forming a Harami pattern, EURGBP has reversed; right now, it is trading upwards. The upside target is at 0.9095. After that, the instrument may continue the ascending tendency. However, there might be another scenario according to which the instrument may fall and return to 0.9000.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
Gold prices have been trading within a well-defined $100 range over the past two months. Gold’s chart shows strong support at $1,675/oz and a zone of resistance at $1,750-$1,775.
A breakout above the trading range could quickly send gold prices to $1,900/oz – where they would challenge their former all-time highs set in 2011.
Seasonally, the month of June tends to be weak.
It wouldn’t be surprising if short sellers in the futures market managed to drive prices back down toward the bottom of the range one more time.
That said, gold prices are closer to breaking out than breaking down from this high-level consolidation. And given that this year has been extraordinarily atypical for all markets, we wouldn’t necessarily expect typical summer doldrums to afflict precious metals.
Silver has support at $17.00/oz and overhead resistance at $19.00. Silver prices ran up to the $19.00 level in late February (just before the crash) and did so again at the end of May.
A breakout above $19.00 and then above $20.00 would finally put silver on the map of mainstream investors – especially since it would likely coincide with record-high gold prices.
With silver being more affordable to retail buyers of limited means, and more vulnerable to supply shortfalls, we expect it will outperform gold during the coming public participation upleg.
The Money Metals News Service provides market news and crisp commentary for investors following the precious metals markets.
EUR/USD quotes have been growing. During yesterday’s and today’s trading sessions, the single currency added more than 100 points. The trading instrument has reached a round level of 1.1300. The 1.1255 mark is already a “mirror” support. The White House announced the development of a new $1 trillion stimulus package. We expect the release of important statistics from Germany, the Eurozone and the US. The technical pattern signals the further growth of the EUR/USD currency pair. Positions should be opened from key levels.
The Economic News Feed for 2020.06.23:
– Indicators on economic activity in Germany and the Eurozone at 10:30 (GMT+3:00) and 11:00 (GMT+3:00);
– New home sales in the US at 17:00 (GMT+3:00).
Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed 100 MA.
The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and continues to rise, which indicates further growth of the EUR/USD currency pair.
Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.1255, 1.1220, 1.1170
Resistance levels: 1.1300, 1.1350
If the price fixes above 1.1300, further growth of EUR/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.1340-1.1360.
An alternative could be a decrease in the EUR/USD currency pair to 1.1220-1.1190.
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.23435
Open: 1.24582
% chg. over the last day: +0.95
Day’s range: 1.24361 – 1.25068
52 wk range: 1.1466 – 1.3516
The British pound has started recovering against the greenback. GBP/USD quotes have updated local highs. The trading instrument is currently consolidating. The local support and resistance levels are 1.2435 and 1.2510, respectively. The demand for risky assets has resumed. The GBP/USD currency pair has the potential for further growth. We expect important economic releases from the UK. Positions should be opened from key levels.
At 11:30 (GMT+3:00), a number of indicators on economic activity will be published in the UK.
Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has fixed between 50 MA and 100 MA.
The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy GBP/USD.
Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which also indicates the bullish sentiment.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.2435, 1.2370, 1.2335
Resistance levels: 1.2510, 1.2565, 1.2650
If the price fixes above 1.2510, further growth of GBP/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.2560-1.2600.
An alternative could be a decrease in the GBP/USD currency pair to 1.2370-1.2340.
The USD/CAD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.36128
Open: 1.35198
% chg. over the last day: -0.71
Day’s range: 1.35004 – 1.35417
52 wk range: 1.2949 – 1.4668
The USD/CAD currency pair is still being traded in a prolonged flat. There is no defined trend. At the moment, the key support and resistance levels are 1.3500 and 1.3560, respectively. USD/CAD quotes are tending to decline. We recommend paying attention to the dynamics of “black gold” prices. Positions should be opened from key levels.
The news feed on Canada’s economy is calm.
Indicators do not give accurate signals: 50 MA has crossed 100 MA.
The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, which indicates the development of bearish sentiment.
Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which gives a signal to sell USD/CAD.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.3500, 1.3455, 1.3400
Resistance levels: 1.3560, 1.3620, 1.3680
If the price fixes below 1.3500, a drop in USD/CAD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.3460-1.3430.
An alternative could be the growth of the USD/CAD currency pair to 1.3600-1.3640.
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 106.775
Open: 106.882
% chg. over the last day: +0.05
Day’s range: 106.739 – 107.221
52 wk range: 101.19 – 112.41
The USD/JPY currency pair has been growing. The trading instrument has updated local highs. At the moment, USD/JPY quotes are consolidating near the resistance of 107.20. The round level of 107.00 is the nearest support. A trading instrument has the potential for further growth. Today we recommend paying attention to economic reports, as well as the dynamics of US government bonds yield. Positions should be opened from key levels.
The news feed on Japan’s economy is calm.
Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed 100 MA.
The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, indicating the bullish sentiment.
Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which gives a signal to sell USD/JPY.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 107.00, 106.75, 106.65
Resistance levels: 107.20, 107.45, 107.65
If the price fixes above 107.20, further growth of USD/JPY quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 107.40-107.60.
An alternative could be a decrease in the USD/JPY currency pair to 106.80-106.60.
The Brazilian real in 2 days strengthened by more than 3% against the US dollar. Such a tendency may contribute to a decline in coffee exports from Brazil. So far, the surge in coffee quotes looks speculative. Their further increase is possible if drought intensifies in the Brazilian coffee-producing region of Minas Gerais. Recall that the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts an increase in world coffee production in the 2020/21 agricultural season to a record 176.1 million of 60 kg bags, which is 9.1 million more than in the previous season. Of this, an increase of 6.8 million bags, according to the USDA, should be provided by Brazil alone. Accordingly, the weather in this country may affect coffee quotes. The decrease in the estimates of the USDA and International Coffee Organization (ICO) of world coffee production and export in the 2019/20 season may be another positive factor. According to the ICO, the global coffee export from October 2019 to April 2020 already decreased by 3.8% to 72.8 million bags, compared to the same period in the previous season (2018/19).
Over the past few hours, risk sentiment has swung between two extremes thanks to conflicting statements from the White House over the US-China trade deal.
A wave of risk aversion threatened to engulf financial markets during early trading on Tuesday after White House trade advisor Peter Navarro said that any trade deal with China was “over”. However, President Donald Trump came to the rescue by tweeting that the trade agreement with China is “fully intact”.
Asian shares were thrown on a rollercoaster ride following the trade confusion but the clarification offered by Trump may support European markets ahead of the latest Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) data for France and Germany.
Speaking of the Euro, expect the EURUSD and other crosses to turn volatile ahead of the pending PMIs. As discussed on Monday evening, the currency pair has staged a strong rebound thanks to a weaker Dollar. A disappointing set of data from Europe may weaken buying sentiment towards the Euro, essentially dragging the EURUSD back towards 1.1200. Alternatively, a solid break above 1.1280 could trigger an incline towards 1.1300 in the short term.
Since we are discussing the Euro, keep a close eye on the EURGBP which has broken out the 150 pip range on the daily charts. The daily close above 0.9000 may encourage an incline towards 0.9120 in the short to medium term. Technical indicators like the Moving Average Convergence Divergence and 100 SMA suggest that bulls remain in a position of power. Should 0.9000 prove to be unreliable support, prices may sink back towards 0.8800.
Commodity spotlight – Oil
Oil gained over 10% last week despite the rising coronavirus cases in China and the United States.
Prices seem to be rising higher on-demand optimism and commitment by OPEC+ to rebalance Oil markets, especially members who overproduced in April. Regardless of the current gains, the path of least resistance remains south. With the core fundamental themes weighing on market sentiment still present, the current rebound on Oil could be nothing more than a dead cat bounce. Looking at the technical picture, WTI Crude has broken above $40 and may challenge $42 in the short term.
Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
Global markets are in a rebound mode today after US markets recovered most of Friday losses. US equities advanced Monday led by technology shares which actually gained in the aftermath of lockdowns impositions as coronavirus outbreak spread.
Forex news
Currency Pair
Change
EUR USD
-0.44%
GBP USD
+1.93%
USD JPY
+0.17%
The Dollar weakening has halted today . The live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, lost 0.6% Monday after mixed data showing the Chicago Fed’s national activity index recovered in May – indicating expanding economy, while existing home sales fell 9.7% over moth in May. Both GBP/USD and EUR/USD reversed their sliding Monday as euro-zone’s consumer confidence index recovery in June indicated continued consumer confidence recovery. Euro is higher currently against the dollar while Pound is down. Both USD/JPY and AUD/USD reversed their sliding yesterday with both yen and Australian dollar lower against the greenback currently.
Stock Market news
Indices
Change
Dow Jones Index
+0.29%
Nikkei Index
+0.51%
Hang Seng Index
+1.8%
Futures on three main US stock indexes are higher currently as they recovered from earlier losses following President Trump’s trade adviser comment China trade deal was ‘over’. Stock indexes in US rebounded Monday: the three main US stock indexes posted gains ranging from 0.6% to 1.1%. European stock indexes are rising currently after a pullback on Monday led by food and telecom shares. Asian indexes are recovering today led by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index as President Trump tweeted Monday night that the China trade was “fully intact” after a comment by his trade adviser that China trade deal was ‘over.’
Commodity Market news
Commodities
Change
Brent Crude Oil
+0.37%
WTI Crude
+0.81%
Brent is edging lower today. Oil prices ended higher on Monday against the background of signs of improving global oil demand as economies reopened. The US oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 1.8% Monday. August Brent crude climbed 2.1% to $43.08 a barrel on Monday.
Gold Market News
Metals
Change
Gold
-0.02%
Gold prices are retracing lower today. August gold gained 0.8% to $1766.40 an ounce on Monday.
Note: This overview has an informative and tutorial character and is published for free. All the data, included in the overview, are received from public sources, recognized as more or less reliable. Moreover, there is no guarantee that the indicated information is full and precise. Overviews are not updated. The whole information in each overview, including opinion, indicators, charts and anything else, is provided only for familiarization purposes and is not financial advice or а recommendation. The whole text and its any part, as well as the charts cannot be considered as an offer to make a deal with any asset. IFC Markets and its employees under any circumstances are not liable for any action taken by someone else during or after reading the overview.
Paraguay’s central bank lowered its monetary policy rate for the fifth time this year, saying it considers a more accommodative policy appropriate to support a gradual recovery of domestic demand and ensure inflation converges to its target of 4.0 percent. The Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP) cut its policy rate by another 50 basis points to 0.75 percent and has now cut it by 325 points this year following three cuts in March and one in April. BCP added the decision by its monetary policy committee was unanimous. Internationally, data show a greater than expected negative impact on activity from the quarantine imposed to curb the spread of the Covid-19 virus and the forecast for the regional economy is also showing reduced growth, BCP said. The domestic economy showed a “significant drop” in April and a smaller contraction in May while inflation, both headline and underlying measures, remain on a downward trajectory, the central bank said. Weaker domestic demand and the prospect of further economic deterioration of the economy of Paraguay’s trading partners indicate limited inflationary pressures in coming months, it added. Paraguay’s headline inflation rate fell to 0.7 percent in May from 2.0 percent in April.
