InvestMacro

By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst, ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

By TheTechnicalTraders 

– Being a technical trader means we attempt to identify opportunities in and market, symbol, or sector based on technical indicators, price patterns, advanced price theory/modeling, and much more.  We don’t particularly care if the opportunity is a bullish breakout rally or a bearish breakdown selloff, we simply want to find the “setups” that create this opportunity because that is our “sweet spot”.  That is where the technical trader lives for the excitement of being able to find these technical setups and potential trade them for profits/success.

AMD Cup & Handle/Pennant Daily Chart

Let me teach you about two price patterns that are currently setting up in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) where we can attempt to illustrate how a combination of technical triggers may align to present a very clear opportunity for technical traders.

This chart highlights a Cup & Handle pattern and a Bullish Pennant/Flag pattern.  Ideally, the combination of these two patterns would suggest a higher probability of an upside bullish breakout rally beginning near the apex of the Pennant formation. Yet, Pennant formations, and other types of technical patterns, can often present a “Washout sell-off in price” near the apex (or breakout area) as a means of shaking out stops before entering the next leg of the trend.

The “Washout” move happens as price tightens into a narrowing price channel and nears the end of a Pennant/Flag formation pattern. This typically results in a broader price move against the predicted technical pattern trend, in this case, down.  What happens is that traders tend to set stop levels just outside the tightening price channels as a means to protect against a price breakdown or rally against their position.  These stop orders present very real volatility targets when price begins the Apex breakout/breakdown event.  The price will usually rotate against the primary technical trend for a short period of time, taking out many stops in the process, then stall and begin to move in the direction of the technical pattern predicted trend, which would be a rally towards $72.

In this case with AMD, the Apex breakout move (to the upside) may be preceded by a price breakdown move near, or below, the $48 to $49 level – this is the “washout” move.  We’ve highlighted what we believe is the lower technical support level in AMD near $44.  This would represent a moderately deep downside price “washout” target level for skilled technical traders.  After this potential washout trend completes, a broader upside price trend usually sets us prompting a rally towards the original Pennant/Flag targets and likely completing the Cup & Handle pattern breakout.

The combination of the Cup & Handle pattern with the Bullish Pennant price pattern in AMD presents a very real opportunity for skilled technical traders.  If your risk tolerance for the trade is capable of riding out the potential “washout low”, then you may consider setting your long entry trades just below the $48 to $50 levels as we near the true Apex event of this trade setup.  There is no guarantee that the washout event will move down to the lower $44 support level – so consider that level a deeper price support level representing a deeper downside price washout.

Ideally, the pending Apex event of the Cup & Handle pattern and the Pennant pattern will result in a moderate 8% to 15% price washout move before the upside price trend initiates.  This suggests that the washout rotation may end near $48 or $49, where price may find support, then begin to rally higher.  The Breakdown Support level on this chart should be considered a “failure level” for this bullish price pattern.  If the price moves below that level when it initiates the Apex volatility, then it is very likely that support has broken down and the predicted upside price trend has failed.

This is how technical traders approach many types of technical price triggers.  We have an expected outcome for price and trends.  We understand the volatility factors related to the trade triggers and we attempt to identify risk factors and profit capabilities before we execute any trades.  If these parameters for our traders are adequate, then we may decide to execute the trade attempting to capture the profits.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

Get ready, this AMD trade setup is nearing the Apex moment and our research team believes a $48 to $50 entry price range is an adequate “washout” range with minor risk factors.  Upside price targets should start near $61.50 and $69.  If you understand how to execute the trade properly, we’ve just delivered a complete blueprint for a potential Apex Breakout trade in AMD using simple technical analysis. This is the basic view of what we offer the active followers of our swing trade alert newsletter. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth one chart pattern at a time.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. Make 2020 and beyond incredibly profitable by following my analysis and trade alerts.

Get my Active ETF Swing Trading Newsletter or if you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Passive Long-Term ETF Investing Signals which we are about to issue a new signal for subscribers.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

By Elliott Wave International

– Here’s an update on the trend of 30-year U.S. Treasuries since the historic early March price moves

Back in early March, the behavior of the bond market was reminiscent of what unfolded during the depths of the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

Prices and yields were making major moves in a short period of time.

On March 5, the U.S. Treasury long bond closed at 173^30.0. The very next day, on March 6, the long bond rallied to 180^19.0, a whopping 6+point move, reaching a new all-time high.

But the rally had more to go.

On March 9, Elliott Wave International’s U.S Short Term Update, a publication which provides near-term forecasts for major U.S. financial markets three times a week, showed this chart and said:

The moves in bond prices and yields are historic. The yield on 30-year US T-bonds dropped to 0.6987% intraday. At the close, 30-year yields barely had a 1% handle. The [U.S. Treasury long bond] spiked to 191^22.0 and the DSI Indicator (trade-futures.com) is at 98% bond bulls. Prices surged through the … trendline but then pulled back to close right on it. Might this be the point of upward exhaustion? In just two days, prices have rallied 21 points. Junk-to-U.S. treasury spreads have surged to 550 basis points, the widest since July 2016.

As it turned out, on that very day, U.S. long bond prices did reach “the point of upward exhaustion.”

Here’s what’s happened since. This chart is from the June 5 U.S. Short Term Update, which noted that March 9 high and said:

[U.S. Treasury long bond futures] are working their way down. … Market moves are never a straight line, but the decline is developing impulsively.

Many investors “diversify” into bonds to shield themselves from the volatility of the stock market.

However, market participants can lose just as big in the bond market.

The U.S. Short Term Update identifies price targets, which are in accordance with the long bond’s Elliott wave structure.

As Frost & Prechter’s Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior notes:

It is our practice to try to determine in advance where the next move will likely take the market. One advantage of setting a target is that it gives a sort of backdrop against which to monitor the market’s actual path.

The Wave Principle can be applied to bonds, as well as stocks, gold, currencies and other widely traded markets.

If you’d like to learn more about the Wave Principle, you can access the online version of Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, free.

All that’s required is a free Club EWI membership. Club EWI is the largest Elliott wave educational community in the world.

Follow this link to get started: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, free access.

By Orbex

NZDUSD has been shedding some of its recent gains over the last couple of weeks as risk sentiment has cooled off. This mostly has to do with external factors.

While news from New Zealand has been positive on the COVID front, the rise in cases in other parts of the world has made investors nervous.

After all the rate cuts during the pandemic, the difference in real rates between New Zealand and the US has returned to stability. In previous cycles of QE, investors found NZD a haven in their search for yields.

But not this time around, with near-zero rates. The question now is how long this will continue.

The Monetary Situation

Many analysts expect that the current RBNZ policy won’t be enough to jump-start the now open economy, and more easing will be required.

There is special emphasis on the deterioration in the housing market, which is suffering due to a lack of foreign investment, as travel is still restricted to the islands.

There is an expectation that Governor Orr will be downbeat and cautious during the press conference following the decision, in line with most central banks.

We still don’t have June data, and the idea is that the RBNZ will wait until there is more solid information on how the recovery is evolving before changing policy.

Speaking of Policy Changes…

The two options under debate are:

1. Negative rates

Orr has hinted at negative rates in the past. However, there is pretty strong opposition to them by the shadow board. A recent survey conducted by Reuters found that most financial institutions widely rejected them.

2. Increasing asset purchases

This is, by far, the favored option. At the last meeting, they nearly doubled the size of what’s known as the LSAP to NZD60B.

The Expectations

There is a strong consensus that no major changes in policy are expected this time around. The focus is on the tone of the press conference later in the day.

Of the surveyed economists, only one expects a rate cut at the next meeting. But the number jumps to around a third of economists expecting a negative rate within the next year.

Markets have priced in the consensus, with the expectation of a pessimistic press conference.

In the unlikely case that Orr shows optimism about the economic recovery, then the NZD could get some extra support since that would catch pretty much all market makers by surprise.

Otherwise, we expect the event to not influence the trajectory of the NZD in the immediate term.

By Orbex

By Money Metals News Service

There’s still time to contribute to your IRA – and fund it with physical precious metals! If you haven’t maxed out your retirement accounts for 2019, you can still do so through the extended tax filing deadline of July 15th.

IRA contribution limits for 2019 are $6,000 for individuals ($7,000 if you’re age 50 or older). For 2020, the limits are the same.

Also for 2020, there is no longer any age restriction on contributions to traditional or Roth IRAs – meaning those over age 70 ½ can now keep building up their retirement savings on a tax-advantaged basis.

You can choose to hold gold, silver, platinum, and/or palladium bullion coins, bars, and rounds, subject to certain IRS requirements, inside an IRA. By holding precious metals within an IRA, you can defer taxes on transactions done within the IRA.

At some point you may want to switch your silver for gold, platinum, or palladium… or for conventional financial assets. You can execute any such trades within an IRA and avoid taxes.

The IRS does require that bullion products meet a certain purity standard. As a general rule, non-pure gold, silver, platinum, and palladium bullion items will be prohibited for ownership inside a precious metals IRA.

The exception to this IRA purity rule is the American Gold Eagle. Even though the Eagle is only 22k (and therefore isn’t pure), it has been given a special exemption since it is the flagship gold bullion product minted by the U.S. government.

For more information on how to open a precious metals IRA and fund it with approved coins, rounds, or bars available from Money Metals Exchange, see our comprehensive guide: Secure Your Retirement with a Self-Directed Gold IRA.

Or call one of our IRA specialists today at 1-800-800-1865 to get started on the road to tax-advantaged precious metals ownership.

The Money Metals News Service provides market news and crisp commentary for investors following the precious metals markets.

By The Life Science Report

Source: Streetwise Reports   06/19/2020

Ampio Pharmaceuticals’ shares traded higher after the company reported that the FDA cleared the firm to proceed with human trials of its Investigative New Drug application for intravenous AmpionTM for treatment in COVID-19 affected patients on supplemental oxygen.

Biopharmaceutical company Ampio Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AMPE:NYSE.American), which is engaged in advancing immunology-based therapies for prevalent inflammatory conditions including developing therapies for patients infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19), today announced that “The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) completed its review of the Company’s Investigative New Drug (IND) application for intravenous (IV) Ampion^TM treatment for COVID-19 affected patients and has cleared the company to proceed with human trials.”

The firm advised that it will be starting a Phase 1 clinical study to evaluate IV Ampion as a treatment for COVID-19 patients on supplemental oxygen. The company advised that “the need for supplemental oxygen in COVID-19 patients is indicative of an inflammatory process in the lungs and that as an immunomodulatory anti-inflammatory agent, Ampion may be effective in interrupting the inflammatory cascade associated with COVID-19 and improving the clinical course and outcome of patients.”

The company further explained that “years of extensive in-vitro studies on cell cultures have confirmed that the mechanism of action of Ampion may be suitable for the treatment of inflammatory conditions, such as acute respiratory distress syndrome and the cytokine storm, associated with COVID-19.”

Ampio Pharmaceuticals is a development stage biopharmaceutical company headquartered in Englewood, Colo. The firm concentrates it efforts mostly on developing its Ampion product candidate to address the treatment of prevalent inflammatory conditions for which currently there are limited treatment options. The company stated that “its lead drug, Ampion, is backed by an extensive patent portfolio with intellectual property protection extending through 2032, and will be eligible for 12-year FDA market exclusivity upon approval as a novel biologic under the biologics price competition and innovation act.” In addition to treating inflammatory conditions, the company states on its website that it is also developing compounds to address several other areas of significant unmet medical needs in the areas of osteoarthritis and diabetic macular edema.

Ampio Pharmaceuticals has a market capitalization of around $94.0 million with approximately 164.9 million shares outstanding and a short interest of about 7.7%. AMPE shares opened 40% higher today at $0.81 (+$0.57, +42.11%) over yesterday’s $0.57 closing price. The stock has traded today between $0.6062 and $0.85 per share and is currently trading at $0.6339 (+$0.0639, +11.21%).

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Disclosure:
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By IFCMarkets

Euro-zone’s manufacturing sector decline slowing bullish for EURUSD

Euro-zone’s service sector contraction slowed for second month in June: the flash manufacturing PMI rose to 46.9 from 39.4 in May, when an increase to 43.9 was expected. This is bullish for EURUSD.

Summary of technical analysis

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

By Orbex

The US equities market rebounded firmly on Monday and shook off the losses suffered on Friday as sentiment soured into the end of the week.

Late last week, US tech giant Apple announced its plans to temporarily close 11 of its sites across four US states. This was in response to the recent rise in COVID-19 cases in the states in question. The news saw equities being heavily sold on Friday.

Risk sentiment had already been diluted across the week due to the increase in cases, prompting concerns that the US is on the verge of a second outbreak of the virus.

Kudlow Downplays “Second Wave” Concerns

However, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow was quick to dismiss the idea of a second wave. Speaking with CNBC on Monday, Kudlow said:

“There is no second wave coming. It’s just hot spots. They send in CDC teams, we’ve got the testing procedures, we’ve got the diagnostics, we’ve got the PPE. And so I really think it’s a pretty good situation. Actually, I think nationwide the positivity rate is still quite low, well under 10%.”

Kudlow’s comments echo those made by Donald Trump in recent days. Trump has explained the spike in cases as merely being the function of a significant increase in testing. He claimed that if testing was reduced, the number of new cases confirmed would be also.

Certain parts of the US have recorded a steady increase in cases over recent weeks amidst the ongoing reopening. This has fuelled fears that the virus is undergoing a second-wave. However, some experts have suggested that the data reflects an incomplete first wave in some areas, rather than a fresh outbreak.

Despite attempts by those in the US administration to downplay the data, the World Health Organisation has been clear in its warnings.

The WHO says the virus is now entering a “new and dangerous phase” with outbreaks in parts of the world previously untouched and fresh outbreaks occurring in areas where lockdown measures have been eased.

Further Fiscal Stimulus “Highly Likely”

Ludlow’s comments were broadly risk-positive. Equities went on to end the day firmly in the green as Kudlow opined that a further fiscal package from the government is “highly likely”.

Responding to questions about the possible contents of such a package, Kudlow stated:

“Things the president has talked about publicly. He has talked about a payroll tax holiday for the workforce, he’s occasionally talked about capital gains tax relief. He wants to help out with some form of tax relief. Restaurants, entertainment, athletic contests, things of that sort. We want to help out the tourism business, which has been hurt very badly. We also want to reward people who are reemploying, who are going back to work.”

S&P Fighting to Regain Bullish Momentum

Following the failure at the 3220.75 level and the break back under the bullish trend-line from year to date lows, the SPX500 has retested the underside of the broken trend line. This is holding as resistance for now.

Supported by a more recent bullish trend line, price is holding above the 3029.50 support for now, keeping focus on further upside. A break 3112.75 will open up a retest of the broken bullish trend line and higher resistance at the 3220.75 level.

By Orbex

By Orbex

Euro Rebounds, But Can It Break The Technical Resistance?

The euro is up over 0.75% on the day on Monday. The gains came steadily during the course of the day.

The currency pair is attempting to rise to a three day high, but a lot will depend on how prices close towards the end.

For the moment, the EURUSD will be struggling near the resistance level of 1.1256. A breakout above this level could potentially send the common currency higher.

However, if the EURUSD fails near this technical resistance, we expect the recent declines to resume.

Of course, a lot will depend on whether price can break past the previous lows at 1.1170 in order for a move to the lower support area at 1.1132.

GBPUSD Rebounds As Support Level Holds, For Now

The British pound sterling is up around 0.83% intraday.

This comes after prices briefly slipped below the support level near 1.2368.

A quick turnaround from this support level is pushing prices higher. At the current pace, the GBPUSD will likely rise to test the technical level of 1.2516.

A breakout above this level will likely see further gains coming in the currency pair. Following this, we then see the next resistance level near 1.2646 being tested.

In the near term, the currency pair might settle into a sideways range. We expect price action to consolidate within 1.2516 and 1.2368 level in case of a failure to breakout above the technical resistance.

Crude Oil Makes Another Attempt To Breakout Above 40

Oil prices are back near the key technical resistance level of 40.00.

Following the test of this level on Friday, prices pulled back lower.

However, since the Asian session, oil prices have been trading rather flat near 40.00.

A breakout above this level will open the way for oil prices to test new highs. But given the lack of any fundamentals to give the bullish push, we expect price action to trade flat near 40.00.

This also potentially opens the risk for oil prices to break down lower. There is a good chance that WTI crude oil might slip back to the 37.67 level in order to establish support more firmly.

Gold Pops Higher At The Open, But Momentum Stays Weak

The precious metal gapped higher at the open today in an attempt to break out from the confines of the current highs.

However, after rising to intraday highs of 1762.96, price action is pulling back sharply. This could potentially result in a doji candlestick pattern.

The gains remain limited despite gold prices breaking past the upper end of the range of 1747. Unless support is established at this level, we do not expect to see any strong gains coming its way.

In the event of a breakdown below 1747, we expect the downside to come under pressure, potentially exposing gold to further declines.

By Orbex

By Dan Steinbock

– The Hainan Free Trade Port plan is aligned with China’s new Silk Road initiatives, the Greater Bay Area plan and deeper ties with Southeast Asia. Hong Kong’s real threats are closer and farther.

On June 1, the Chinese government published its Hainan masterplan. It seeks to transform the southernmost province, separated from Guangdong’s Peninsula by the Qiongzhou Strait, into a Free Trade Port (FTP). The plan will turn China’s largest and most populous island to its biggest special economic zone (SEZ).

The initiative stems from the early days of Chinese economic reforms. Following the first special economic zones in Guangdong and the opening of further 14 coastal megacities to overseas investment, the government disclosed its plan to transform Hainan into China’s largest SEZ in 1988.

In the West, Hainan’s long-term plan has been seen as a reaction to recent turmoil in Hong Kong and the Trump administration’s controversial trade war against China.

In reality, Hong Kong’s real threats are elsewhere.

Vital link to ASEAN and 21^st Century

Maritime Silk Road

In Hainan, things began to change in 2009, when the Chinese government began to transform the island into an international tourist destination by the early 2020s. As investment inflows intensified, particularly in real estate, another surge ensued in the early 2010s, when Hainan came to be seen as a frontline to Southeast Asia, and as a vital node in the Maritime Silk Road along the Belt and Road Initiatives.

Due to new protectionism in the West, that role has steadily increased in importance. In early 2020, the rising bilateral trade with ASEAN accounted for 15% of China’s total trade volume, relative to 11% and 14% with the US and EU, respectively.

With its proximity to Southeast Asia, Hainan possesses unique advantages as a future free trade port. With more than 9 million people, it is a fourth more populous than Hong Kong and almost twice as big as Singapore. And by land area – 35,000 km² – it is more than 30 times the size of Hong Kong (and nearly 50 times larger than Singapore). That’s vital for an international trade hub.

According to the four-stage timeline, Hainan should become an operational free trade zone during this year. In 2020-25, Hainan’s free trade port should be in place, with an attractive business environment, improved industrial competitiveness, sound rule and law. In 2025-35, the FTP is expected to mature operationally. And by 2050, Hainan should have established, strong international influence.

The Hainan masterplan seeks to liberalize cross-border flows of trade, investment and capital, and people, transport and data. But its current positioning and industry focus are different from Hong Kong.

Hainan will play more of a complementary role – not a competitive rivalry – to Hong Kong.

Dark clouds over

Hong Kong’s future

Under the 1992 “US-Hong Kong Special Policy Act” and after the 1997 handover of Hong Kong from Britain to China, Washington has treated the city separately from the mainland in matters of trade exports and economic control.

In the past two decades, there have been periodic attempts by mainly localist and separatist groups in Hong Kong to undermine the status quo. In the West, they are seen as “pro-democracy” groups, whereas China sees them as destabilizing forces, due to their close cooperation with regime-change forces in the US and UK.

These efforts intensified in summer 2019, which saw a violent protest escalation that undermined Hong Kong’s recovery, pushed it to recession even before the pandemic and has contributed to the city’s current, first-ever back-to-back recession.

At the same time, cooperation between some protest leaders and US Congress led to an amendment in the 1992 Act. The 2019 “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act” allows US government to impose sanctions against Chinese and Hong Kong officials and requires US agencies to conduct an annual review to determine whether changes in the US-Hong Kong trade relations are warranted.

In Beijing’s view, such a law would be comparable to a Chinese Act that would allow China to conduct reviews and impose sanctions against US government, state and municipal officials depending on, say, the dire state of race relations in America.

Nonetheless, in late May, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo certified to Congress that Hong Kong no longer enjoys a high degree of autonomy from China. Days later, President Trump announced some sanctions would be placed on Hong Kong.

With these statements, the White House has paved a potential way to bad business, diplomacy, precedent and still another major policy mistake.

How 2019 Act would undermine

American multinationals and Hong Kong

Today, there are some 85,000 US citizens in Hong Kong, which hosts 1,300 US companies with Asian headquarters in the city. If the new 2019 Act is implemented, they could leave for Singapore or elsewhere, which would penalize their cost structure, or relocate to China, which would undermine the White House’s objectives. In both cases, US would lose its bilateral goods and service trade surplus of $34 billion with Hong Kong, which would cost still more US domestic jobs.

The long-term diplomatic impact could be worse. For decades, US presence in Hong Kong has been a major influence channel in East Asia, while US multinationals’ HQs in Hong Kong and their subsidiaries in China have served as vital instruments of increasing bilateral understanding. Yet, the Trump White House seems intent to undermine both.

Since the 2019 Act could derail Hong Kong’s economic and political future, it represents everything but the best interests of the city. That’s perhaps why some leading Hong Kong protesters have recently, but only belatedly, warned about the consequences of the Act that they themselves had made possible.

The Trump White House’s policy mistake could also trigger a process in which Shanghai, thanks to its Free Trade Zone and Lingang New Area, could receive many new US companies, particularly financial giants, that the 2019 Act would force to leave Hong Kong. Since 2009, Shanghai has been transformed into the mainland’s global financial and trade hub. Those steps would certainly be accelerated.

And thanks to the Greater Bay Area initiative – China’s huge Silicon Valley-like region that links Guangdong’s megacities, Hong Kong and Macau – US technology giants could flock to Shenzhen and elsewhere, while those that operate in Southeast Asia or have significant shipping interests could move to Hainan.

The greatest threat

to Hong Kong

Hong Kong’s greatest threat has never been the myth that China would want to turn it into “just another Chinese city.” That’s precisely the one thing China does not want.

Instead, Hong Kong’s greatest risk is irrelevance. If its greatest strengths are undermined, it could become inconsequential as a major global economic hub.

Indeed, if the White House prevents the city from realizing its unique advantages – world-class finance, shipping and trade – Hong Kong would face accelerated decay in the future.

Hainan’s free port is not Hong Kong’s threat. The city’s real risks are closer and farther.

About the Author:

Dr. Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognized strategist of the multipolar world and the founder of Difference Group. He has served at the India, China and America Institute (USA), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see https://www.differencegroup.net

A shorter version of the commentary was released by China Daily on June 19, 2020