Global stocks are gaining today after a stronger than expected US jobs report Thursday. US markets ended marginally higher yesterday after Labor Department data showed that the US added back 4.8 million jobs in June.
Forex news
Currency Pair
Change
EUR USD
-0.91%
GBP USD
+1.61%
USD JPY
-0.05%
The Dollar strengthening has halted today with US financial markets closed to observe the July Fourth holiday which falls on Saturday this year. The live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, added 0.1% Thursday as US Labor Department data showed that the US added back 4.8 million jobs in June when a gain of 3.7 million jobs was expected. Both GBP/USD and EUR/USD reversed their climbing yesterday despite Eurostat unemployment ticked up to 7.4% in May instead of forecast 7.6% from 7.3% in April. USD/JPY’s joined AUD/USD’s continued climbing yesterday with both yen and Australian dollar higher currently against the greenback.
Stock Market news
Indices
Change
Dow Jones Index
+0.12%
GB 100 Index
+0.37%
Nikkei Index
-1.55%
Hang Seng Index
+0.06%
Futures on three main US stock indexes are edging higher currently after a nudge higher Thursday. The three main US stock indexes recorded gains ranging from 0.4% to 0.5% as data showed new applications for jobless benefits continued to slow, falling to 1.43 million in the seven days ended June 27 from 1.48 million in the prior week. European stock indexes are extending gains today after ending solidly higher Thursday led by banking stocks. Asian indexes are all higher today led by Shanghai Composite .
Commodity Market news
Commodities
Change
WTI Crude
+0.65%
Brent Crude Oil
-0.12%
Brent is edging lower today. Oil prices advanced for a second session yesterday buoyed by better than expected US job growth in June. The US oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures ended solidly higher yesterday: August WTI rose 2.1% but is lower currently. August Brent crude closed 2.6% higher at $43.14 a barrel on Thursday.
Gold Market News
Metals
Change
Silver
+0.02%
Gold prices are edging lower today . August gold added 0.6% to $1790 an ounce on Thursday.
Note: This overview has an informative and tutorial character and is published for free. All the data, included in the overview, are received from public sources, recognized as more or less reliable. Moreover, there is no guarantee that the indicated information is full and precise. Overviews are not updated. The whole information in each overview, including opinion, indicators, charts and anything else, is provided only for familiarization purposes and is not financial advice or а recommendation. The whole text and its any part, as well as the charts cannot be considered as an offer to make a deal with any asset. IFC Markets and its employees under any circumstances are not liable for any action taken by someone else during or after reading the overview.
EURUSD is forming another descending wave. Possibly, today the pair may break 1.1222 and then continue falling with the short-term target at 1.1180. After that, the instrument may correct to test 1.1222 from below and then start another decline to reach 1.1144.
GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
GBPUSD is forming another descending wave towards 1.2410. Possibly, the pair may correct towards 1.2466 and then resume trading downwards to break 1.2363 and then continue falling inside the downtrend with the target at 1.2317.
USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”
USDRUB is still trading downwards to reach 69.96. After that, the instrument may resume growing towards 70.50, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 72.00; if to the downside at 0.9490 – resume trading inside the downtrend to reach 68.00.
USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”
USDJPY is consolidating around 107.46 without any particular direction. If later the price breaks this range to the upside at 107.75, the market may start a new growth with the target at 108.20; if to the downside at 107.20 – resume trading downwards to reach 106.60.
USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”
USDCHF is forming another ascending wave towards 0.9494. After that, the instrument may correct to reach 0.9455 and then resume trading upwards with the predicted target at 0.9555.
AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”
AUDUSD is still consolidating around 0.6902. If later the price breaks this range to the upside at 0.6940, the market may form another ascending structure with the target at 0.6990 or even 0.7000; if to the downside at 0.6900 – resume trading downwards to reach 0.6880 or even 0.6788.
BRENT
Brent is forming one more ascending wave towards 43.40. Later, the market may fall to reach 42.40 and then start another growth to return to 43.40 or even continue the uptrend with the target at 45.20.
XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”
Gold is still consolidating around 1770.00. Today, the pair may test 1768.20 from above and then resume trading upwards to reach 1793.00 or even 1800.00.
BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”
After finishing the descending impulse at 9000.00, BTCUSD is consolidating above this level. Possibly, the pair may fall towards 8700.00 and then start a new correction to reach 9200.00. Later, the market may continue trading downwards with the target at 8000.00.
S&P 500
After completing the ascending wave at 3160.6, the Index is expected to correct towards 3076.0. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards with the target at 3125.0.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
In the H4 chart, after reaching 23.6% fibo, Bitcoin has rebounded from it. In the future, the pair may continue falling towards 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 7907.00 and 7150.00 respectively. However, the correction that has been taking place for more than a month creates an impression that bulls are saving strengths before pushing the price towards the high at 10368.40 and then the fractal high at 10505.60..
As we can see in the H1 chart, the divergence on MACD has finished the local rising movement; tight now, the pair is forming a new descending impulse towards the low at 8814.20. after breaking it, the instrument may continue falling to reach the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 8628.10 and 8514.10 respectively. The resistance is the high at 9301.40.
ETHUSD, “Ethereum vs. US Dollar”
As we can see in the H4 chart, Ethereum is still correcting to the downside and has already tested 23.6% fibo at 214.90. A local rebound may be just a correction to the upside. Later, the pair may continue trading downwards to reach 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 191.00 and 171.60 respectively. The resistance remains at the high at 253.47.
The H1 chart shows a more detailed structure of the current ascending correction, which has already reached 50l.0% fibo and may yet continue towards 61.8% fibo at 236.35. If the price breaks the low at 215.90, the instrument may complete the correction and resume the mid-term downtrend.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
An ambiguous technical pattern has been developed on the EUR/USD currency pair. The United States published a rather optimistic report on the US labor market for June. The number of jobs in the country increased by 4.8 million. The unemployment rate fell to 11.1% from 13.3%. At the same time, the dollar index has kept current highs. Investors are concerned about the start of a new wave of the coronavirus epidemic. The United States reported more than 55K new cases of COVID-19 yesterday, having set a world record. Currently, the EUR/USD quotes are consolidating in the range of 1.1215-1.1250, respectively. We recommend opening positions from these marks.
News feed for 2020.07.03:
Today, the publication of important economic releases is not planned. US financial markets will be closed due to the holiday.
Indicators do not send accurate signals: 50 MA has crossed 100 MA.
The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, indicating a bearish sentiment.
Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which gives a signal to buy EUR/USD.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.1215, 1.1190, 1.1170
Resistance levels: 1.1250, 1.1285, 1.1310
If the price fixes below 1.1215, the EUR/USD quotes are expected to fall. The movement is tending to 1.1190-1.1170.
An alternative could be the growth of the EUR/USD currency pair to 1.1280-1.1300.
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.24652
Open: 1.24640
% chg. over the last day: -0.01
Day’s range: 1.24379 – 1.24866
52 wk range: 1.1466 – 1.3516
The GBP/USD currency pair has stabilized after a prolonged rally. The pound sterling is currently consolidating. GBP/USD quotes are testing local support and resistance levels: 1.2450 and 1.2490, respectively. In the near future, a technical correction is possible. The growing risks of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic put pressure on risky assets. Positions should be opened from key levels.
In June, the composite index of business activity in the UK significantly accelerated from 30.0 to 47.7.
Indicators do not send accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA.
The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.
Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.2450, 1.2400, 1.2360
Resistance levels: 1.2490, 1.2530
If the price fixes below 1.2450, a correction of the GBP/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to the round level of 1.2400.
An alternative could be the growth of the GBP/USD currency pair to 1.2530-1.2560.
The USD/CAD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.35825
Open: 1.35671
% chg. over the last day: -0.17
Day’s range: 1.35533 – 1.35755
52 wk range: 1.2949 – 1.4668
The USD/CAD currency pair is in a sideways trend. The technical pattern is ambiguous. Participants in financial markets evaluate the US labor market report for June. The local support and resistance levels are 1.3550 and 1.3585, respectively. We recommend paying attention to the dynamics of “black gold” prices. Positions must be opened from key levels.
The news feed on the Canadian economy is calm.
Indicators do not send accurate signals: the price is consolidating near 50 MA.
The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, indicating a bearish sentiment.
Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which gives a signal to buy USD/CAD.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.3550, 1.3525, 1.3490
Resistance levels: 1.3585, 1.3615
If the price fixes below 1.3550, USD/CAD is expected to fall. The movement is tending to 1.3525-1.3500.
An alternative could be the growth of the USD/CAD currency pair to 1.3615-1.3640.
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 107.420
Open: 107.482
% chg. over the last day: +0.02
Day’s range: 107.435 – 107.567
52 wk range: 101.19 – 112.41
The USD/JPY currency pair is still consolidating. Unidirectional trends are not observed. Participants in financial markets expect additional drivers. The local support and resistance levels are 107.35 and 107.65, respectively. Demand for the “safe haven” currencies is high again. We recommend paying attention to the dynamics of yield on US government bonds. Positions must be opened from key levels.
The publication of important economic reports from Japan is not planned.
Indicators do not send accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA.
The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.
Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 107.35, 107.05, 106.80
Resistance levels: 107.65, 107.85, 108.10
If the price fixes below 107.35, USD/JPY is expected to fall. The movement is tending to 107.00-106.70.
An alternative could be the growth of the USD/JPY currency pair to 107.90-108.10.
Lower cotton supply estimate bullish for #C-COTTON
The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) June acreage report on Tuesday showed a planted area estimate of 12.2 million acres for all cotton in 2020, down 11% from last year. And traders are closely watching for weather updates as Texas, the highest cotton-producing state, continues to be hot and dry. Lower supply estimates are bullish for cotton price. On the other hand improving weather in US cotton growing states is a downside risk for cotton.
For the weekly close, global financial markets and Forex could see subdued volatility. This is mainly due to the shortened US trading hours coming from the US Independence Day on Saturday, July 4 (for a change in trading hours please check here).
Still, the fundamental and the technical picture in the EUR/USD is very interesting for the days ahead: the EUR/USD kept on stabilizing against the region around 1.1180/1200 for a potential long trigger, especially with the focus on 10-year US Treasury yields and the region around 0.60%.
A break below that level will likely result in the yield differential between European and US yields continuing to narrow, favouring gains in the EUR/USD, activating 1.1400/1450 as a target on the upside.
But, while we are very sceptical in regards to the US dollar and expect the USD to depreciate, not only driven by a drop in US yields but also in response to the Fed continuing with their US Treasury purchases. There are also some downside risks in the EUR/USD, at least in the short-term:
While we could see global central banks winding down outstanding USD liquidity swap lines over the last few weeks (resulting in a declining Fed balance sheet), we could imagine this situation to tense up again in the near-term, which could see the US dollar gain and push the EUR/USD lower.
Our technical line in the sand here can be found around 1.1150, a break lower activates 1.1000 on the downside:
Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on EUR/USD Daily chart (between May 3, 2019, to July 2, 2020). Accessed: July 2, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.
In 2015, the value of the EUR/USD fell by 10.2%, in 2016, it fell by 3.2%, in 2017, it increased by 13.92%, 2018, it fell by 4.4%, 2019, it fell by 2.2%, meaning that after five years, it was down by 7.3%.
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The Pound has seen a slight lift and is holding steady in the run up to the so-called ‘Super Saturday’ – as pubs, restaurants, and hotels reopen on July 4 after spending the past three months on lockdown. Sterling has been the third best performer among G10 currencies so far this month, gaining 0.56 percent against the US Dollar since Tuesday. The recent gains has set GBPUSD’s 50-day simple moving average on a possible course of convergence with its 100-day SMA.
The move is eagerly anticipated by the services sector, with an estimated 960,000 hospitality staff set to return to work over the course of July and give the UK economy a much-needed boost. ‘Super Saturday’ should bolster the domestic economy’s chances of a recovery, aided further by the 107 billion Pounds worth of stimulus measures already announced by the government.
However, if the lessons of some US states are anything to go by, a hasty reopening that results in a resurgence of coronavirus cases in the country could force businesses to shut down once more and layoff more workers. The city of Leicester had to reimpose lockdown restrictions this week after a spike in cases, with the pandemic having claimed over 43,000 lives across the country.
Such an event would be a major setback for the UK economy, and by extension, for Sterling as well, snuffing out the green shoots of demand recovery as seen in May’s better-than-expected retail sales data. It also remains to be seen whether consumer sentiment can hold up, at least enough for UK households to part with some of the record deposits that they made in May, amounting to 25.6 billion Pounds.
Still, the outlook for the Pound remains mired with downside risks. Besides the threat of a second wave of coronavirus cases, the Brexit saga is plodding along with major differences still evident between UK and EU negotiators. This week’s talks ended a day early, but are set to resume in London as planned next week. As long as the threat of a no-deal Brexit remains on the table, Pound is unlikely to register significant gains against the Dollar. Conversely, a Brexit trade deal that is sealed sometime in Q3 could push GBPUSD back towards 1.30 and return the currency pair to pre-pandemic levels.
Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
The Golden Triangle (GT) of northwestern British Columbia has been one of the best performing mining districts for precious and base metals juniors. Of roughly 30 names I’m tracking, as of the close on June 30, the Top 3 are up an average of +1,536% (!) from their respective 52-week lows. The Top 5 are up an average +1,238%, Top 8; +940%, Top 12; +734% and Top 15; +632%. . .
A name that I’ve written about in the past, Scottie Resources Corp. (SCOT:TSX.V) has gained an impressive +273%, but I believe it has room to run upon further exploration successes this season.
Last year Scottie discovered multiple high-grade surficial targets on its newly acquired Summit Lake claims and had exciting drill results on its Bow and Scottie Gold Mine properties. Bow saw modest drilling, but delivered notable hits like 73.3 g/t Au over 4.3 meters (4.3m), incl. 152.5 g/t over 1.9m, on the Bend Vein, and 7.4 g/t Au over 34.8m, including 14.3 g/t over 14.0m, on the Blueberry Vein. The longest drill hole to date on the Scottie Gold Mine property returned an interval of 7.3 g/t Au over a fairly long 25.0m, including 11.7 g/t over 11.0m.
In 2019 Scottie acquired the 4,877-hectare Summit Lake property, which had been in private hands and barely explored for 20+ years. Grab samples taken by Scottie’s team returned blockbuster grades, including 536 g/t Au, 63 g/t Au, 2,290 g/t Ag and 2,000 g/t Ag. A new discovery at Summit Lake, the Domino zone, had some of the best grab samples and will be a big part of this season’s exploration activities.
Under CEO Brad Rourke, Scottie Resources has grown from about 400 hectares (400 ha) in 2017 to 24,589 ha (nine properties), contained largely in two contiguous blocks. Rourke plans a minimum of 5,000 meters of drilling this summer/fall, and possibly more, if results are strong and weather permits. Management recently attracted Eric Sprott as a cornerstone investor, and is sitting on just over CA$5M in cash.
The company’s valuation is attractive, and right in the sweet spot of GT peers. Companies like Skeena Resources Ltd. (SKE:TSX.V), GT Gold Corp. (GTT:TSX.V), Tudor Gold Inc. (TUD:TSX.V) and Ascot Resources Ltd. (AOT:TSX.V) are much larger. I think these four are potential acquirers of Scottie, especially Pretium Resources Inc. (PVG:TSX; PVG:NYSE) and Ascot, both of whom share borders with Scottie. By the end of next year, management will have the results from two more drill seasons, possibly putting it in position to deliver a maiden mineral resource estimate.
With all of these balls in the air, Mr. Rourke is a very busy man. I caught up with him last week for the following interview.
Peter Epstein: Brad, Scottie Resources owns nine properties covering 24,589 hectares. Eight are split between two contiguous blocks sharing borders with Pretium and Ascot Resources. What can you tell us about these properties?
Brad Rourke: Scottie has been an aggressive consolidator of claims in the GT. We have grown from ~400 hectares in 2017 to nearly 24,600 hectares spread across nine properties today. Based on the nature and locations of the mineralizing systems and major structures, we’re working the nine properties as two larger contiguous blocks, the Scottie Gold Mine and Cambria projects.
The Scottie Gold Mine project includes the Scottie Gold Mine, Bow, Summit Lake and Stock properties. Exploration on this 8,728-hectare block will be focused on high-grade gold mineralization akin to our past-producing operation.
Our second contiguous block is the 14,243-hectare Cambria project. It contains four properties (Black Hills, Ruby Silver, Bitter Creek and Portland), bordered to the east by Ascot Resources’ Red Mountain project, and to the north by Pretium Resources. Crews are currently on-site conducting soil sampling and geologic mapping. The focus at Cambria is more on silver-rich, polymetallic vein systems in the southern portion (Bitter Creek and Black Hills), and high-grade gold in the northern portion.
The Sulu property is 1.5 kilometers (1.5 km) northwest of Summit Lake and 7 km northeast of the past-producing Granduc Mine. This 1,617-hectare property hosts significant potential for both VMS (volcanogenic massive sulfide) mineralization and high-grade precious metal veins. In 2017, an airborne geophysical survey was flown that produced a number of coincident electromagnetic (EM) and magnetic anomalies, but the work was not followed up on.
Peter Epstein: Please describe the details of your 2020 exploration plans.
Brad Rourke: We are very excited to pick up where we left off, with a fully-funded 5,000-meter drill program on Bow’s Blueberry vein, past-producing Scottie Gold Mine and the Domino zone on the Summit Lake claims. We’re conducting an airborne time domain electromagnetic survey on 5,800 hectares of the Scottie Gold Mine project and structure-focused geological mapping of key showings. We also plan to do detailed IP (induced polarization) surveys of multiple drill targets, explore areas of glacial ablation and other follow-up on high-grade showings from 2019.
Peter Epstein: By market cap, Scottie is the tenth largest pre-production junior in the Golden Triangle. Is Scottie similar to any other peers in the district?
Brad Rourke: We see ourselves enjoying an optimal combination of features. We have high-grade gold, host a past-producing mine [nearly 100k ounces @ 16.2 g/t gold], have road accessible projects, a sizable land package hosting two contiguous blocks, and acquired a nearly 5,000-hectare property that was in private hands for over 20 years. That property, Summit Lake, is untested by drilling.
Peter Epstein: Please tell readers about your flagship Scottie Gold mine property, including recent drill results and plans for 2020.
Brad Rourke: The past-producing Scottie Gold Mine was discovered as veins outcropping at surface. Old-timers chased the vein into the mountain. Historic drilling was done primarily for production; little effort was given to identifying other brownfield targets. When we acquired the property, we took a step back to do modern property-scale exploration.
We tested and confirmed some of our theories by drilling the longest hole ever on the property, and we intersected an interval of 11.7 g/t gold over 11m. The positioning of this hole clearly illustrates that the deposit was neither mined out, nor drilled off. It remains open at depth and along strike. Past drilling delivered some tremendous assays to build on [see results below].
Peter Epstein: Last year’s grab samples on the Summit Lake property included 537.3 g/t Au eq. (gold equivalent) and 63.6 g/t Au eq. in the Domino zone; 34.4 g/t Au eq. in the Kingpin zone; and 29.6 g/t Aueq. in the Mayor zone. Please explain the next steps for Summit Lake.
Brad Rourke: Last season was our first pass on the property. In fact, for much of the program we were the first boots on the ground in 25+ years. Given the significant extent of glacial retreat, our focus was on newly exposed rocks and following up on geophysical anomalies.
What we’re most excited for is to drill the newly discovered Domino structure. It has everything a good target should. Gradeup to 536 g/t gold!size, striking over 700m in length, up to 200m wide, and a comparable mineralized depositthe Scottie Gold Mineon strike 2 km away.
Peter Epstein: Two of the 2019 grab samples at Summit Lake graded 2,000+ g/t silver (~2/3 ounces/t gold eq.). Might silver be a meaningful part of the Summit Lake story?
Brad Rourke: We’re not approaching these projects with a singular focus on commodity or deposit style. Our claims are in geological settings capable of hosting a range of potentially world-class deposits in gold and silver, and in copper and zinc. Examples in the Golden Triangle include VMS (Granduc, Eskay Creek), shear-hosted veins (Scottie Gold Mine), epithermal (Premier, Brucejack), porphyry (KSM), intrusion-related gold (Red Mountain).
Peter Epstein: Last year on the Bow property, Scottie drilled a total of 1,500m and hit 73.3 g/t Au over 4.3m, including 152.5 g/t over 1.9m in the Bend vein, and 7.4 g/t Au over 35m, including 14.3 g/t over 14.0 m in the Blueberry vein. How important is the Bow property to the overall Scottie story?
Brad Rourke: The Bow property is a phenomenal addition to the overall Scottie Gold Mine project, it has exceptional grades at shallow depths and is 100% road accessible. For many junior miners, Bow would be a flagship project. But we’ve also got the Scottie Gold Mine and the wide open Summit Lake claims. Our 2020 drill program will start with drilling Bow’s Blueberry vein.
Peter Epstein: You’ve done a fair amount of work on the potential to toll mill tailings at the Scottie Gold Mine property. How long might it take to monetize them? When might you start processing the material?
Brad Rourke: We’ve been studying the on-surface tailings for the past two years. We started by looking at grades anddistribution. We then moved to environmental considerations and how we might position the remediation project to the government.
We see this as a win-win for Scottie Resources, the government, the environment and local communities. Assuming that discussions with the ministry go well, we think that 1215 months is a reasonable time frame for us to begin generating cash flow.
Peter Epstein: Would you consider farming out some properties to help fund exploration of your favorite opportunities?
Brad Rourke: Peter, are you looking for a way into the Golden Triangle? We welcome the idea of optioning properties in order to advance them at little to no cost while we focus on the Scottie Gold Mine project.
Peter Epstein: No, I’m only looking for ways to invest in the stocks of juniors in the GT that have strong management teams, good properties and projects with high-grade gold discovery potential. Do you know of any?
Peter Epstein is the founder of Epstein Research. His background is in company and financial analysis. He holds an MBA degree in financial analysis from New York University’s Stern School of Business.
Epstein Research Disclosures/Disclaimers:The content of this article is for information only. Readers fully understand and agree that nothing contained herein, written by Peter Epstein of Epstein Research [ER], (together, [ER]) about Scottie Resources, including but not limited to, commentary, opinions, views, assumptions, reported facts, calculations, etc. is not to be considered implicit or explicit investment advice. Nothing contained herein is a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. [ER] is not responsible under any circumstances for investment actions taken by the reader. [ER] has never been, and is not currently, a registered or licensed financial advisor or broker/dealer, investment advisor, stockbroker, trader, money manager, compliance or legal officer, and does not perform market making activities. [ER] is not directly employed by any company, group, organization, party or person. The shares of Scottie Resources are highly speculative, not suitable for all investors. Readers understand and agree that investments in small cap stocks can result in a 100% loss of invested funds. It is assumed and agreed upon by readers that they will consult with their own licensed or registered financial advisors before making any investment decisions.
At the time this article was posted, Scottie Resources was an advertiser on [ER] and Peter Epstein owned shares in the Company.
Readers understand and agree that they must conduct their own due diligence above and beyond reading this article. While the author believes he’s diligent in screening out companies that, for any reasons whatsoever, are unattractive investment opportunities, he cannot guarantee that his efforts will (or have been) successful. [ER] is not responsible for any perceived, or actual, errors including, but not limited to, commentary, opinions, views, assumptions, reported facts & financial calculations, or for the completeness of this article or future content. [ER] is not expected or required to subsequently follow or cover events & news, or write about any particular company or topic. [ER] is not an expert in any company, industry sector or investment topic.
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ROTH Capital Partners initiates coverage on U.S. oncology biopharma G1 Therapeutics that is now filing an NDA.
In a June 26 research note, analyst Tony Butler reported that ROTH Capital Partners initiated coverage on G1 Therapeutics Inc. (GTHX:NASDAQ) with a Buy rating and a $55 per share price target. The stock is currently trading at about $24.28 per share.
Butler reviewed the status of the oncology therapeutics firm’s three primary candidates.
G1’s lead drug is trilaciclib, for which it is currently filing a new drug application (NDA) with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for its use in nonsmall cell lung cancer. The company is expected to complete the application in Q2/20 and commercially launch the therapeutic next year.
For the use of trilaciclib in that indication in the U.S., ROTH models a 75% chance of approval and if approved, peak sales of $500 million. In triple-negative breast cancer, ROTH models $500 million of peak sales and in colorectal cancer, $600 million, both with market entry in 2025-2026.
Butler described trilaciclib as a “CDK4/6 inhibitor that transiently halts cell cycle progression in the bone marrow to ameliorate chemo-induced toxicities. “The primary conclusion from the pooled data support that trilaciclib prior to chemotherapy significantly reduced chemotherapy-induced myelosuppression and was associated with a substantial reduction in high grade hematological treatment-emergent adverse events with no detrimental effects on progression-free survival [PFS] or overall survival [OS]. However, PFS and/or OS were not improved with treatment with trilaciclib. Trilaciclib reduces the toxicity of chemotherapy in SCLC.” Butler noted.
The North Carolina-based biopharma’s second asset in clinical development is rintodestrant. It is an oral, selective estrogen receptor degrader (SERD), for estrogen receptor (ER) positive, HER2 negative breast cancer. “An oral SERD that can rapidly reach steady state, may have utility in ER positive breast cancer,” Butler wrote. This is based on the fact that the combination of fulvestrant, an intramuscular SERD, and palbociclib is a proven therapeutic in the indication. Fulvestrant, which was approved in 2002, attained blockbuster status in 2018, but it is associated with “poor physiochemical properties that require monthly injections leading to less than optimal activity.”
With an estimated market size of ER positive, HER2 negative advanced/metastatic breast cancer patients in the U.S and Europe, ROTH projects peak revenue from both places of $2.1 billion. It projects a rintodestrant launch in 2025-2026.
G1’s third asset is lerociclib, which is also a CDK4/6 inhibitor and which the company is looking to outlicense and market in Europe with a partner, as a treatment for small cell lung, triple-negative breast and colorectal cancers. Recently, G1 entered an exclusive licensing agreement for lerociclib in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, with Genor Biopharma, a Chinese biopharma.
Finally, Butler reviewed G1 Therapeutics’ financial situation. The company had $242.4 million in cash and cash equivalents at the end of March 2020. Also, it recently entered an agreement with Hercules Capital for up to $100 million in funding for commercialization and further advancement of trilaciclib. The agreement calls for payments to G1 in four tranches, the first of which is $30 million, to be paid upon closing. G1 will receive the remaining tranches when it completes certain milestones.
Disclosure: 1) Doresa Banning compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None. 2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. 3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. 4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports. 5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.
Disclosures from ROTH Capital Partners, G1 Therapeutics, Inc., Company Note, June 26, 2020
Regulation Analyst Certification (“Reg AC”): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
ROTH makes a market in shares of G1 Therapeutics, Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis.
ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months.
– Most investors make the mistake of linearly extrapolating a financial trend into the future, especially at junctures when that trend is near a turn.
In everyday terms, it’s called “getting married to the trend.”
Here’s what Elliott Wave International President Robert Prechter said in his book, Prechter’s Perspective:
Most published forecasts are at best descriptions of what has already happened. I never give any forecast a second thought unless it addresses the question of the point at which a change in trend may occur. …
Read forecasts carefully. If they are unsophisticated, linear extrapolations of a recent trend, it’s probably the best policy to toss them aside and go search for something potentially useful.
Employing the Elliott wave model helps a market participant to avoid the error of assuming that today’s trend will carry into tomorrow. Why, even a 3rd-grader can learn a tell-tale sign of when a trend is about to change. More on that in a bit.
First, let’s look at a prime historical example of how trend extrapolation manifests.
A little background: the price of crude oil hit a low of $49.90 in January 2007 and then climbed dramatically in the following year and a half, reaching a high of $147.50 in July 2008.
Many energy market observers expected even higher prices.
Here are just a few of the headlines as crude oil was skyrocketing:
Oil price ‘may hit $200 a barrel’ (May 7, 2008, BBC)
An Oracle of Oil Predicts $200-a-Barrel Crude (May 21, 2008, The New York Times)
WHAT IF OIL HITS $200? (June 28, 2008, Los Angeles Times)
In the same time frame, one chief executive of an energy firm had predicted $250 a barrel.
Yet, around the time these headlines were published, the Elliott wave model was suggesting a different price path for oil.
The June 8, 2008 Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which has provided analysis and forecasts for financial markets and cultural trends since 1979, said:
The Top of Wave 5 in Crude Oil Is Fast Approaching
Now, what is the significance of the completion of a fifth wave?
That means that a trend, whether up or down, is on the cusp of a turn. In this case, the trend had been up. So, the “top of Wave 5” meant that the next significant price move would be down. Well, as mentioned a moment ago, just a month later, crude oil’s price hit that $147.50 top.
Here’s what followed:
As Robert Prechter noted in his 2017 book, The Socionomic Theory of Finance:
Only someone extrapolating an Elliott wave could see that “one of the greatest commodity tops of all time” lay dead ahead. Those using supply-demand arguments and linear extrapolation … were in the wrong place at the wrong time.
So, if you can count to five, you can anticipate trend turns, even when the majority are expecting the trend to continue.
Let’s go a bit further back in history and see how “counting to five” helped our analysts call a top in the price of General Electric’s stock.
In late October 2000, this chart was published in the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication that covers major U.S. financial markets:
The completion of a quarter-century five-wave pattern portended a major reversal in GE’s stock.
At the time, the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast made a straightforward forecast:
GE is going to go way down … .
Here’s what happened thereafter:
But, getting back to that 3rd-grader who was mentioned earlier, you can see him discern a five-wave pattern in a market chart yourself and perhaps learn in the process.
Also, see how a college student picked right up on an even more detailed Elliott wave pattern — in no time! Then, hear from one of Elliott Wave International’s own wave experts who has more to say about the error of assuming a current trend will persist, well, merely because it’s already in place.
It’s all in a video titled “Anyone Can Learn the Wave Principle.” Watch it for free — compliments of Elliott Wave International.
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Stocks, Oil: See How Elliott Waves Help You Avoid “Getting Married to the Trend”. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
