InvestMacro

By Admiral Markets

Source: Economic Events July 2020 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

The economic calendar for the beginning of the trading week is quite thin. However, there are chances that today will set the stage for new trends in the coming days.

The reason for this? The EU summit over the weekend saw EU leaders moving towards an agreement on a roughly 1.85 trillion Euro European Corona pandemic recovery fund.

While not all details could be worked out (which could be expected, see our analysis from last Friday), steps in that direction seem to have been taken, leaving the German DAX30 with the potential for a run above 13,000 points by today and if not, in the very near future.

This bullish outlook remains on a technical level as long as we trade above 12,770/800 points, and on a longer time frame (Daily), recapturing 13,000 could lead the way up to the all-time high of around 13,800 points in the weeks ahead.

On the other hand: a drop below 12,770/800 would not necessarily darken the overall picture, but at least make a short-term run lower towards 12,470/500 points an option, stop-over around 12,670/700 points:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Hourly chart (between June 30, 2020, to July 17, 2020). Accessed: July 17, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Daily chart (between April 3, 2019, to July 17, 2020). Accessed: July 17, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of the DAX30 CFD increased by 9.56%, in 2016, it increased by 6.87%, in 2017, it increased by 12.51%, in 2018, it fell by 18.26%, in 2019, it increased by 26.44% meaning that after five years, it was up by 34.2%.

Check out Admiral Markets’ most competitive conditions on the DAX30 CFD and start trading on the DAX30 CFD with a low 0.8 point spread offering during the main Xetra trading hours!

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3. Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter “Author”) based on the Author’s personal estimations.
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By Admiral Markets

By CentralBankNews.info

By IFCMarkets

World coffee exports down in June

The General Department of Vietnam Customs reports coffee exports from Vietnam in June 2020 decreased by 11.5% compared with June 2019 and amounted to 127.7 thousand tons. In the first half of the year, coffee exports from Vietnam increased by 2.2%. However, it is difficult to say how steady this trend is. The US Department of Agriculture predicts a 3.5% decrease in the total coffee crop in this country in the 2020/21 agricultural season. CeCafe reported a 9.8% year-on-year decline in green coffee exports from Brazil in June to 2.47 million bags (60 kg). Note that the current coffee harvest in Brazil may be hampered by drought in the state of Mina Gerais. IHCAFE announced a decrease in coffee exports from Honduras in June by 29.6% compared to last year – to 652 thousand bags (60 kg), also due to drought. The total coffee harvest in Honduras may decline by 4.5% this year.

Summary of technical analysis

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

“Hope and fear look different on a chart”

By Elliott Wave International

Recently in these pages, we noted that bull markets in stocks tend to end with “a subtly slowing ascent” rather than with a final “spike” higher, as many investors believe. Historical examples were provided.

It was also pointed out that, by contrast, commodities do tend to end major uptrends with a price spike.

The Wall Street classic book, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, by Frost & Prechter explains why (keep in mind regarding the quote from the book that fifth waves are the final wave in the main trend of a financial market):

Fifth wave advances in the stock market are propelled by hope, while fifth wave advances in commodities are propelled by a comparatively dramatic emotion, fear; fear of inflation, fear of drought, fear of war. Hope and fear look different on a chart, which is one of the reasons that commodity market tops often look like stock market bottoms.

Crude oil offers a prime historical example. This chart shows the big spike higher going into the July 2008 high. A dramatic 78% plunge in just five months followed:

Of course, precious metals are also commodities. Thus, the price history of gold offers another historical example of a price spike going into a peak.

This chart and commentary are from the Sept. 2, 2011 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides analysis of major U.S. financial markets:

Commodity fifth waves in major rallies often end in a final spike higher. …

Gold’s wave structure is consistent with a terminating rise.

Four days after that chart published, on Sept. 6, 2011, a headline in the British newspaper, The Guardian, said:

Gold hits new high as fear stalks financial markets

There we have that word “fear” again.

On that date, the yellow metal hit a high of $1921.50 and a big decline followed. By December 2015, gold was trading at $1046.20.

Now, let’s return to the topic of crude oil — a market that’s seen extraordinarily dramatic moves in 2020, as you probably know.

This chart from the April 2020 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast shows when Elliott Wave International’s analysts made key calls on the crude oil market in recent history:

You can see the junctures at which the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast and the U.S. Short Term Update prepared Elliott Wave International’s subscribers for declines.

As the April Elliott Wave Financial Forecast noted:

The chart shows crude oil’s recent plunge. When we’ve felt the time was right to make comments on oil’s prospects, we’ve done so, as shown on the chart. Our last comment was in December 2019. Since January of this year, oil futures have crashed 71%.

Of course, the volatility in the crude oil market continued thereafter.

How would you like to get insights into the “forecasting tool” which EWI’s analysts employ?

You can do so — 100% free — via a valuable resource titled “The Forecasting Tool That Called Every Major Turn in Crude Oil Since 1993.”

Simply join Club EWI (membership is also free) and this video becomes instantly available to you. Club EWI is the world largest Elliott wave educational community.

Get started by following this link: “The Forecasting Tool That Called Every Major Turn in Crude Oil Since 1993.”

By The Life Science Report

Source: Streetwise Reports   07/16/2020

AC Immune SA shares set a new 52-week high after the Swiss biotech firm reported that interim data from its Phase 1b/2a phospho-Tau Alzheimer’s Vaccine study reconfirms promising safety and Tau-specific immunogenicity observed in the prior clinical trial.

Switzerland-based clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company AC Immune SA (ACIU:NASDAQ), which develops precision medicines for neurodegenerative diseases including Alzheimer’s, today announced “the initiation of the second highest dosing group in the company’s Phase 1b/2a clinical trial evaluating ACI-35.030 for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease (AD).” The firm noted that it has made the decision to advance the higher dosing group in the study after it received data that confirmed positive safety, tolerability and immunogenicity results from the initial dosing group in the trial.

The company stated that “immunization with anti-Tau vaccines has become an important strategy for the treatment of AD and other neurodegenerative diseases characterized by Tau pathology.” The firm advised that it is developing ACI-35.030 in collaboration with Janssen Pharmaceuticals, a Johnson & Johnson (JNJ:NYSE) company, and noted that ACI-35.030 is the first AD vaccine candidate designed to generate a specific antibody response against pathologic phospho-Tau (pTau) proteins in the brain.

The company’s CEO Professor Andrea Pfeifer remarked, “The fact that ACI-35.030 shows encouraging safety and immunogenicity at the lowest dose in this elderly patient population is highly meaningful and we look forward to quickly enrolling this next dosing group.”

“Tau-targeted approaches may have a much broader therapeutic window to potentially disrupt, slow or prevent disease progression at both early and advanced disease stages. Pathological pTau occurs early in the disease process, years before accumulation of Tau deposits. Therefore, our pTau-targeting approach holds significant promise for the treatment of AD at different disease stages,” CEO Pfeifer added.

The company identified ACI-35.030 as “a potent liposomal anti-pTau active investigational vaccine designed to elicit antibodies against phosphorylated pathological Tau protein, in order to reduce and facilitate the clearance of related Tau aggregates, slowing the progression of Tau-pathology and/or treating the underlying Tauopathy.”

The firm indicated that the Phase 1b/2a clinical study’s main goal is to assess the safety, tolerability and immunogenicity of different doses of ACI-35.030 in early AD patients over a period of 48 weeks.

The company stated that “the ACI-35.030 anti-pTau vaccine is the second vaccine under investigation generated from AC Immune’s SupraAntigen™ platform, along with ACI-24, a proprietary anti-amyloid beta (Abeta) vaccine currently in Phase 1b/Phase 2 clinical development in two separate indications.”

AC Immune is headquartered in Lausanne, Switzerland, and is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that specializes in developing precision medicines for treating neurodegenerative diseases. The firm stated that “it utilizes two proprietary discovery platforms, SupraAntigen™ and Morphomer™, to design, discover and develop small molecule and biological therapeutics as well as diagnostic products intended to diagnose, prevent and modify neurodegenerative diseases caused by misfolding proteins.” The company outlined that its drug pipeline currently includes nine therapeutic and three diagnostic product candidates, and that five of those are presently being investigated in ongoing clinical trials.

AC Immune began the day with a market capitalization of around $516.7 million with approximately 71.86 million shares outstanding. ACIU shares opened 50% higher today at $10.82 (+$3.63, +50.49%) over yesterday’s $7.19 closing price and reached a new 52-week high price this morning of $13.00. The stock traded today between $8.22 and $13.00 per share and closed at $8.55 (+$1.36, +18.92%).

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Disclosure:
1) Stephen Hytha compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. He or members of his household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. He or members of his household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.
3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.
6) This article does not constitute medical advice. Officers, employees and contributors to Streetwise Reports are not licensed medical professionals. Readers should always contact their healthcare professionals for medical advice.

( Companies Mentioned: ACIU:NASDAQ,
)

By The Gold Report

Source: Streetwise Reports   07/15/2020

The key numbers and the timeline for this Mexican asset of Endeavour Silver are addressed in this ROTH Capital Partners report.

In a July 14 research note, ROTH Capital Partners analyst Joe Reagor reported that Endeavour Silver Corp. (EDR:TSX; EXK:NYSE; EJD:FSE) released a summary of the updated prefeasibility study of its Terronera silver-gold project and that it “shows robust economics’ and demonstrates improvement over the previous one from July 2018.

Reagor relayed that the new report outlines a base case net present value of $137 million and an after-tax internal rate of return of 30% for this project in Jalisco, Mexico. Initial capex is an estimated $99 million.

Next for Terronera is a feasibility study, which Endeavour Silver intends to pursue.

Reagor pointed out that startup at the project may get pushed back by about a half-year, to H1/23 versus H2/22, when ROTH had expected it to happen. This is based on the assumption that the Vancouver-based company would need about a year to complete the feasibility study then another 18 months to get financing and develop the mine. Also, the analyst noted that COVID-19 and other factors may cause unexpected delays.

“The company’s timeline justifies moving the startup to early 2023 in our model,” Reagor noted and added that ROTH will wait to update its model until Endeavour Silver files the full prefeasibility study.

ROTH has a Buy rating and a US$3 per share price target on Endeavour Silver, the stock of which is trading today at about US$2.80 per share.

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Disclosure:
1) Doresa Banning compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.
3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

Disclosures from ROTH Capital Partners, Endeavour Silver Corp., Flash Note, July 14, 2020

Regulation Analyst Certification (“Reg AC”): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

ROTH makes a market in shares of Endeavour Silver Corp. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis.

Shares of Endeavour Silver Corp. may be subject to the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Penny Stock Rules, which may set forth sales practice requirements for certain low-priced securities.

ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months.

( Companies Mentioned: EDR:TSX; EXK:NYSE; EJD:FSE,
)

By CentralBankNews.info

The central bank of North Macedonia left its policy rate steady, saying the three rate cuts earlier this year along with the reduction in the amount of central bank bonds offered had contributed to an increase in the banking system’s liquidity and helped support the flow of credit in the country.
The National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia maintained its policy rate at 1.50 percent after cutting it three times this year by a total of 75 basis points following cuts in January, March and May.
“Based on the already completed easing of monetary policy, in this meeting it was decided that the interest rate on central bank bonds remains at the current level, according to current economic and financial conditions,” the bank’s monetary operations policy committee said in a statement issued on July 16 following a July 14 meeting.
Since 1995 the central bank’s intermediary policy objective is to maintain the exchange rate of the denar to maintain price stability, with the policy rate equalling the rate on central bank bills.
The national bank said liquidity of 15 billion dinars issued in April and May was appropriate so this week’s auction of central bank bonds would be unchanged from June’s auction at 10 billion denars.
High-frequency economic data for North Macedonia, which changed its name from Macedonia in 2019, continued to show negative effects of the Covid-19 crises in April and May after growth slowed to 0.2 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, down from 3.4 percent in the previous quarter, the central bank said.
Inflation rose to 1.7 percent in June after consumer prices fell in the previous two months and the central bank said its forecast of zero percent inflation this year remains surrounded by uncertainty due to the different directions of import prices and the volatility of prices of primary products.
The country’s foreign exchange reserves remain at a safe level and slightly better than expected in the second quarter and there has been a steady rise in the liquidity of foreign exchange at banks, helped by the National Bank’s sales.
Since the start of July through July 13, the net demand for foreign currency has only been 3 million euros, the bank added.
Last month the bank’s governor, Angelovska Bezhoska, assured the country there would be no devaluation of the denar as the bank had a high level of reserves – at more than 3 billion euros at the start of the coronavirus crises – and other instruments to protect the exchange rate.
“If we managed to keep the denar stability in 2008 and 2009 with a significantly lower level of foreign reserves, now with this level of foreign reserves, there should be absolutely no dilemma that the denar stability will be guaranteed,” she said in a statement available on the bank’s website.
The denar was trading at 61.6 to the euro today, unchanged this year.

www.CentralBankNews.info

By Money Metals News Service

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Well, it’s been another wild, wild week in the precious metals markets, particularly at the retail level in the United States. Trading activity here at Money Metals Exchange continues to be extremely robust, and we are focusing all of our efforts on procuring extra inventory, taking orders, shipping orders quickly, and servicing our customers.

We are just so grateful to all of our staff who have been putting in the long hours to help our company maintain its reputation as the industry leader in some very important ways. And thank you to all of YOU for the trust you are placing in us to be your supplier for gold and silver in these unprecedented times for our Nation. With that said let’s get right to this week’s market update.

Gold and silver markets advanced early this week, with silver leading the way. On Thursday, the metals sold off a bit as the U.S. dollar gained.

The major trend for the dollar, however, is down. The Dollar Index has been grinding lower since mid March, when it put in a spike high.

The major trend for precious metals is up. That certainly hasn’t changed in this week’s market action.

Gold prices are up just slightly by 0.4% since last Friday’s close to bring spot prices to $1,816 an ounce. The rally will be back on when the monetary metal closes above $1,825.

Turning to silver, the market is up 3.0% for the week to trade at $19.43 per ounce. Silver finally broke through the $19 level with a strong close above it on Monday. There hasn’t yet been much follow-through. Although silver has continued to close above $19, we’re not seeing a big momentum push higher.

Precious metals analyst and Money Metals contributor Steve St. Angelo sees $19.75 as a resistance line on the chart that may have capped the silver market this week. Perhaps we’ll see another attempt at breaking through it next week. We see another key level at $21, and if that’s decisively broken, then silver could run all the way to $26.

As for platinum, with a bit of a rally here today prices are up 1.4% on the week to come in at $852. Its sister metal palladium now trades at $2,106 by the ounce on the heels of a 3.0% weekly gain. And finally, copper traded up to nearly $3.00 a pound this week, which represents a two-year high.

With both precious metals and base metals making strong moves in recent weeks, inflation pressures may be brewing. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% percent in June after falling 0.1% in May. It was the biggest jump for the CPI since 2012.

Food and energy prices are surging, with gasoline in particular up 12.3%. Other consumer spending categories that have been weak may be set to rise in the next CPI report.

It may seem counterintuitive for inflation to be an issue while much of the U.S. economy remains stifled by lockdowns. Some states including California are now even re-imposing some of the most severe restrictions that were put in place earlier this year.

Yet even with at least 14 million jobs lost, personal incomes have risen thanks to government stimulus measures. Government transfer payments have exploded by $2 trillion. That’s equal to a 200% annualized increase.

It’s no mystery why inflation is returning. Inflation is being generated directly by the government and its enablers at the Federal Reserve.

Additional virus-related stimulus measures are being debated by Congress and the Trump administration. It appears likely that despite some opposition from fiscal conservatives, another round of stimulus checks will be coming.

Meanwhile, the Fed will keep interest rates artificially depressed for the foreseeable future. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said this week that the central bank should hold interest rates near zero until inflation not only reaches but exceeds the 2% target.

That echoes previous comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on so-called “symmetrical” inflation targeting. It means central bankers will welcome a period when inflation runs above target.

Higher inflation combined with ultra-low interest rates will create an environment of deeply negative real rates. When the rate of return on bank savings accounts and Treasury bills is negative after adjusting for inflation, savers and investors will need to look elsewhere to preserve and grow their wealth.

Some of that wealth will end up in the precious metals markets. Negative real rates tend to be bullish for gold and silver. Since there are no signs of any rate hikes on the horizon this year or next, the only threat to this bullish scenario is that the economy collapses into deflation.

We can’t rule out another deflationary scare in the economy and crash in equity markets. But under our monetary system, these types of events are always followed by a big inflationary push. We suspect there is more to come in the current inflationary push and that precious metals still have a lot more upside potential than downside risk.

To be sure, the inflation risk is greatest if this coronavirus-depressed global economy recovers.

The Producer Price Index has yet to show any broad rises in wholesale prices. But disrupted supply chains for a host of commodities and manufactured products are showing signs of stress and instability.

Consumers are feeling the pain of rising food (especially meat and dairy) costs. Pent up demand for discretionary consumer goods could soon trigger price spikes in other categories as well.

Asia and Europe appear to be faring better than the U.S. in terms of limiting the spread of the virus. Their economies may thus be positioned to recover more strongly.

As U.S. COVID-19 cases continue to rise (even as the fatality rate falls), even more state-by-state economic (re)lockdowns may occur. That means more calls for economic bailouts and stimulus measures – which, if enacted, would further exacerbate upward pressures on deficits and money printing.

The Federal Reserve Note dollar is especially vulnerable to being debased – and possibly even ditched by large foreign holders including China. A bearish outlook for the U.S. dollar implies a bullish case for hard money – gold and silver.

Well that will do it for this week. Be sure to check back next Friday for our next Weekly Market Wrap Podcast. Until then, this have been Mike Gleason with Money Metals Exchange, thanks for listening and have a great weekend everybody.

The Money Metals News Service provides market news and crisp commentary for investors following the precious metals markets.

By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst, ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

By IFCMarkets

Top Gainers – The World Market

Shares of Chinese and Hong Kong companies fell in price amid yet another aggravation of US-Chinese relations. The US President Donald Trump signed a law imposing restrictive measures on China because of its policy towards Hong Kong. Hong Kong dollar weakened against the euro. Amidst relatively high world oil prices, other commodities also went up, which helped to strengthen the currencies of exporting countries – South Africa, Canada, Australia, Norway and Mexico. The euro strengthened ahead of the ECB meeting and the summit of the heads of the EU countries.

 Top Losers – The World Market

1. Cathay Pacific AIR – Hong Kong Airlines

2. PICC Property and Casualty Company Ltd – Chinese movable and immovable property insurance company

 Top Gainers – Foreign Exchange Market (Forex)

1. EURTRY, EURHKD – the growth of these charts means the strengthening of the euro against the Turkish lira and the Hong Kong dollar.

2. AUDCHF, CADCHF – the growth of these charts means the weakening of the Swiss franc against the Australian and Canadian dollars.

 Top Losers – Foreign Exchange Market (Forex)

1. USDZAR, EURZAR – the drop in these charts means the strengthening of the South African rand against the US dollar and the euro.

2. USDNOK, USDMXN – the drop in these charts means the strengthening of the Norwegian krone and the Mexican peso against the US dollar.

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Note:
This overview has an informative and tutorial character and is published for free. All the data, included in the overview, are received from public sources, recognized as more or less reliable. Moreover, there is no guarantee that the indicated information is full and precise. Overviews are not updated. The whole information in each overview, including opinion, indicators, charts and anything else, is provided only for familiarization purposes and is not financial advice or а recommendation. The whole text and its any part, as well as the charts cannot be considered as an offer to make a deal with any asset. IFC Markets and its employees under any circumstances are not liable for any action taken by someone else during or after reading the overview.