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This overview has an informative and tutorial character and is published for free. All the data, included in the overview, are received from public sources, recognized as more or less reliable. Moreover, there is no guarantee that the indicated information is full and precise. Overviews are not updated. The whole information in each overview, including opinion, indicators, charts and anything else, is provided only for familiarization purposes and is not financial advice or а recommendation. The whole text and its any part, as well as the charts cannot be considered as an offer to make a deal with any asset. IFC Markets and its employees under any circumstances are not liable for any action taken by someone else during or after reading the overview.

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By IFCMarkets

Brexit Discussion May Resume Soon

As a reminder, the previous round of Brexit negotiations began on June 29, 2020. The parties did not agree on anything and it was terminated ahead of schedule a few days later. It is not yet known in what format the new discussion may take place. Тhe UK has formally left the EU, but the transition period will last from 31 January 2020 to 31 December 2020. During this time, the parties must agree on terms of mutual trade. Good labor market data were published in the UK last week. Unemployment in May remained at 3.9%, while it was expected to increase to 4.2%. Retail sales data will be released on Friday, July 24th. Their outlook is positive, which may strengthen the pound. Any progress on the Brexit negotiations would also benefit the British currency. New Zealand’s June trade balance will be released on July 24. Its outlook is moderately negative, as the surplus is expected to shrink to $0.603 billion from $1.253 billion in May.

Summary of technical analysis

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By Dan Steinbock

 – Global growth prospects are deteriorating. Instead of a V-shaped recovery in the 2^nd quarter, advanced economies will face historical carnage and a prolonged contraction. But there’s still worse ahead.

Current estimates for major advanced economies remain too optimistic, due to the mismanagement of the COVID-19, belated responses and premature exits, which have now caused far-earlier-than-expected secondary virus waves. As a result, the hoped-for V-shaped recovery will not happen in the 2^nd quarter.

The Trump administration’s catastrophic COVID-19 failures, along with premature exits to reopen the economy and leave the WHO will virtually ensure still new virus waves and longer contraction. In turn, US tariff wars are undermining the promise of the Asian Century.

2^nd quarter carnage: projections and realities

In early February, as new coronavirus cases began to decelerate in China but accelerate outside China, I predicted that China would rebound in the 2^nd quarter but major advanced economies could rebound in the 3^rd quarter only if they’d manage to contain the pandemic.

At the time, this view was seen as too optimistic for China and too pessimistic for advanced economies.

When the deceleration of new cases in China continued in March, but dramatically accelerated in major advanced economies, I projected that China’s rebound in the 2^nd quarter would be stronger than expected. And that major advanced economies, particularly the US, would face a contraction that would be at par with or worse than the Great Depression.

At the time, this view was seen as too optimistic for China and too pessimistic for advanced economies.

In late January, President Trump congratulated President Xi Jinping for China’s success in the virus containment. In March I predicted that Trump would reverse his words. Due to plunging ratings and re-election challenges, I projected that Trump and his administration would blame China for COVID-19, particularly in early summer ahead of the 2^nd quarter results in the US.

Today, we know that Chinese economy became the first to rebound in the 2^nd quarter, by growth of 3.2%. In contrast, major advanced economies are heading toward a historical plunge in the 2^nd quarter. And as projected, Trump’s attacks against China intensified in June and have accelerated into a kind of hybrid war.

And there’s worse ahead.

Economic erosion in G7, rebound in China

Until recently, many international observers expected US to benefit from a strong rebound that would start in late spring and strengthen in the 3^rd quarter. New virus waves were seen as a possible threat but later in the fall. The Trump administration’s pandemic mismanagement and premature exits have undermined those hopes and resulted in a huge virus resurgence in the US; months earlier than anticipated.

While consensus models expected US coronavirus cases to be around 3 million by now, they will exceed 4 million soon. So, the 2^rd quarter contraction, which was expected to amount to -33%, is likely to soar to -53%, according to the Atlanta Fed. Annualized growth will take a deeper hit, accordingly.

In the UK, Boris Johnson’s government followed in the US footprints until realities proved overwhelming. While the government has taken a different stance since late spring, it has been too little too late. Coronavirus cases are about to exceed 300,000. In the 2^nd quarter, British economy could plunge by -20% to -25%.

Although Italy was the first major economy in the Euro area to suffer from the pandemic, its stringent quarantine measures reduced the damage in the spring. Nonetheless, the virus cases amount to almost 245,000 and the 2^rd quarter is expected to translate to a plunge of -9% to -10%.

As the Euro area’s strongest economy, Germany is no longer immune to contraction either. As German cases are about to exceed 200,000, the country could experience a plunge of -8% to -10% in the 2^nd quarter.

France is following in Germany’s footprints. Officially, the cases are about to exceed 175,000. Yet, the 2^nd quarter will prove dire with a plunge of -17%.

While COVID-19 has recently surged in Japan, official cases average at about 25,000, while annualized growth is likely to plunge to -5%. But official virus data cannot be taken at face value because minimal testing. Until recently, the country’s testing capacity, as adjusted to population, has been significantly behind that of Uganda, half of that in the Philippines and less than 2.5% relative to the UK.

Chinese cases have stayed below 85,000, as I predicted three months ago. As long as China can deter imported infections, the rebound will prevail. The challenge will be the Trump administration’s hybrid war, which seeks to derail China’s return to pre-crisis economic growth, while risking global economic prospects for years to come.

Protracted contraction or global depression

A review of official coronavirus cases and discrepancies between expected and likely quarterly results suggests trends that will cause increasing distress in major advanced economies. Not just in the next few months but in the medium-term, due to COVID-19 mismanagement, belated responses and premature exits.

Here’s why:

• Instead of the hoped-for V-shaped economic rebound in the 2^ndquarter, no major advanced economy will deliver such performance.
• In the US, Latin America and some other economies, where containment failures, belated responses and premature exits have proved significant, secondary waves will prolong the pandemic pain and collateral economic damage. Yet, current estimates do not reflect these outcomes, which markets still undervalue. Worse, as restrictions expire, US infections are likely to migrate elsewhere in the world.
• If advanced economies continue to mismanage the pandemic crisis and persist in premature exits, they will face a protracted L-shaped recovery, which could evolve into a multiyear global depression in the early 2020s.
• Major advanced economies are coping with their historical plunge by taking more debt, Ironically, the medication against COVID-19 is paving the way for soaring budget deficits. As old fiscal packages prove inadequate, new ones will be launched, which will contribute to new debt crises and risk defaults.
• In the past months, fiscal stimuli have been coupled with aggressive monetary easing; that is, the return to ultra-low rates and large asset purchases, which will prevail significantly longer than currently acknowledged, with attendant longer-term collateral damage.

The US quest to push for tariff wars, even amid the worst contraction in a century, is now undermining efforts to promote world trade, investment and migration, which the G20 economies used in 2008 to avoid global depression.

The net effect – unwarranted de-globalization – will endanger global recovery, deepen economic challenges and contribute to potentially fatal geopolitical crises.

It’s time to tighten the belts; we’re in for a new rollercoaster ride. That’s what happens when science-based public-health policies are systematically ignored for political exigencies. Pandemics gain, economies lose, and people will suffer.

About the Author:

Dr. Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognized strategist of the multipolar world and the founder of Difference Group. He has served at the India, China and America Institute (USA), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see https://www.differencegroup.net/ 

Based on Dr Steinbock’s global briefing on July 17, 2020

By Money Metals News Service

New buyers are pouring into the bullion markets, and they have lots of questions. Even basics, such as how to make payment, need a bit of explaining. Buying precious metal isn’t complicated, but there are some differences compared with other types of purchases.

One of the biggest differences is that paying with your credit card will cost you. Because of the very small margins on sales, bullion dealers pass along the merchant fees charged by Visa, Mastercard, and other card providers. The same is true for customers using PayPal.

Some dealers, like Money Metals, will present the fee as a separate charge at checkout. Others will present two prices for items – a lower price for customer paying by check or bank wire, and a higher price if the customer wants to use a card or PayPal. At Money Metals, this additional cost is 4% currently.

Buyers are often surprised when this fee is presented. Retailers in high-margin industries simply absorb the fees as a cost of doing business. However, the bullion market is extremely competitive, and margins are super low. Dealers cannot simply eat these merchant fees as they can even be greater than the entire gross profit on a transaction.

If you buy metal from a dealer which does not pass along the merchant fee, you are probably getting hit with hidden mark-ups.

For example, they may be selling you numismatic coins at rip-off prices. They have no problem paying Visa’s fee if they find a client foolish enough to pay 50% or more for a coin than it’s actually worth.

Honest dealers tend to discourage credit card payments. In addition to the processing costs they must pass on to their clients, dealers must wage a constant battle to fend off fraudsters.

Fraud is a major cost. Dealers can suffer losses, and they bear the expense of sophisticated fraud detection systems and personnel to manage them.

That is why, in addition to a 4% fee, clients will also find they are limited to small purchases if they pay with a card. Companies can’t afford the risk of shipping thousands of dollars worth of metal to a scammer using a stolen credit card.

It is always a better bet to make payment via check, money order or, for transactions above $3,000, bank wire. It may seem old school, but it saves money and you will avoid restrictions on order size.

You can still lock today’s price and then send your payment. Many new buyers assume they have to make payment on the spot in order to get the current price, but that just isn’t the case. You can lock pricing first and send payment later. Dealers just ask that it be sent promptly – within a day of ordering.

These days some people no longer write checks, but that is not a problem.

They can instead use their bank’s Bill Pay service, purchase money orders, ask the dealer to do an ACH debit, pay in crypto currency, or visit their bank to pick up a cashier’s check.

There are perhaps some reasons to pay with a card or PayPal. For small purchases, the fee may be preferable to the hassle of going out to purchase a money order. Orders paid by card will also ship more quickly, as check payments must be cleared over 5 business days.

However, anyone who can avoid using a credit card probably should.

The Money Metals News Service provides market news and crisp commentary for investors following the precious metals markets.

By The Gold Report

Source: The Critical Investor for Streetwise Reports   07/17/2020

The Critical Investor examines the latest news from this junior with a flagship copper-zinc project in Portugal, which also includes finalizing a joint venture with MATSA and preparing for the season’s drill program.

As gold stocks are getting all the attention at the moment, with gold firmly in an upward trend, it seems, one could almost forget the existence of base metal juniors. This is not entirely justified in my opinion as, for example, copper (Cu) has recovered completely from its March lows, as can be seen in this chart per pound Cu by Macrotrends:

A tiny junior whose faith is closely intertwined with copper pricing is Avrupa Minerals Ltd. (AVU:TSX.V; AVPMF:OTC; 8AM:FSE)8, as its flagship Alvalade brownfield copper-zinc project in Portugal is likely to contain significant amounts of the red metal. The other metal, zinc, has recovered as well, and more, but follows a different pattern—as can be seen in this Kitco chart—as it isn’t so directly connected to, for example, Chinese demand fundamentals.

Despite the hype around precious metals, Avrupa managed to land a joint venture (JV) with MATSA (Minas de Aguas Teñidas, S.A., which is owned equally by Trafigura and Mubadala, two giants in the mining investment space) last year. Despite COVID-19, both Avrupa and MATSA worked diligently and quietly on permitting, and managed to recently receive the new Alvalade Experimental Exploitation License (EEL) from the Portuguese Mining Bureau.

Despite the relatively limited delay of about three months due to COVID-19, president and CEO Paul Kuhn was obviously very happy, not in the least as this permit was a very important milestone for the MATSA JV to be finalized: “We are extremely pleased to have the Alvalade 5-year Experimental Exploitation License (EEL) issued to the Joint Venture company, PorMining Lda. With partner MATSA, we will be able to move forward using our joint, long-term Pyrite Belt experience and recent successes to potentially develop a world-class copper-zinc project within the Alvalade license boundaries. We plan to immediately start the necessary work programs leading to the next drill project later this year.”

The CEO of MATSA, Audra Walsh, was also excited, as MATSA is venturing into Portugal for the first time now, after having established itself in neighbor Spain with several operating mines and development projects: “Obtaining the Alvalade exploration license opens up new opportunities for exploration in Portugal. Exploration is one of MATSA’s permanent objectives, as it is our future. The agreement with Avrupa Minerals is the beginning of our exploration in the Portuguese Pyrite Belt”.

The EEL covers an area of approximately 115 square kilometers, is valid for up to five years and includes the Sesmarias massive sulfide discovery, the nearby historic Lousal Mine, the Monte da Bela Vista stockwork zone and a number of other already known massive sulfide targets noted on the map. Avrupa will operate the project through a joint technical committee with full funding by MATSA for up to three years, subject to project milestones.

The market didn’t really seem to grasp the importance of the announcement, although the share price rose from a measly $0.02 to $0.04. Avrupa and MATSA are targeting a large brownfield project, with potential tonnage ranging from 30 to 50Mt. Projects like this could result into net present values (NPVs) of hundreds of millions of dollars very quickly.

Share price; 3-year time frame (Source: Tmxmoney.com)

As MATSA is funding all exploration work, like drilling and establishing resources, money isn’t the issue, as long as the project remains of interest for MATSA, of course. In this case, Alvalade being a brownfield project with a former mine and well-documented historic resources, the risk of proving up sufficient resources doesn’t seem to be a binary risk, like a greenfield exploration JV usually is.

MATSA is very serious about expanding their footprint in the Iberian Belt, and also targets early-stage exploration, besides advanced, lower-risk projects. They received two greenfields exploration licenses at the same time as the Alvalade licence issuance, and a third exploration license is coming. According to CEO Kuhn, they are in it for the long term in Portugal.

As MATSA is funding most costs, Avrupa already received 400,000 euros as part of the earn-in. The first tranche came back in December 2019, and the company has used it to pay bills and operate in a most basic manner, meaning CEO Paul Kuhn has been doing all work by himself, from home whenever possible. With the second tranche, Avrupa continues to operate in a likewise careful manner.

According to Kuhn, by doing this very carefully, without fanfare, they have been able to obtain the coveted Alvalade EEL license during a very difficult time, with the COVID-19 pandemic slowing everything down.

As the health situation in southern Portugal remains fairly open, Avrupa intends to start physical work at Alvalade in the next couple of weeks. They have been meeting with MATSA at the coreshed recently to work out a three-month budget to perform exploration work, predominantly focused on drilling as soon as possible. In the first year of the project, they are required to drill at least 5,000 meters, according to the contract with the mining bureau. Reviewing and re-logging of core is also a vital part of this program, a full list of planned activities follows here (as per company):

• Re-log historic Avrupa-drilled Sesmarias core with MATSA to integrate their knowledge of the Pyrite Belt into the overall understanding of the massive sulfide deposit (remember that they have three operating Pyrite Belt mines in Spain, and at least one new, unannounced discovery in the same rocks).
• Initial logging and possibly sampling of historic core prior to Avrupa’s involvement at Alvalade. They have access to at least 10,000 meters of old core that has not be looked at for years.
• Considering use of ionic leach geochemistry to help identify and follow the trend of the Sesmarias mineralization. This is a relatively new geochemical technique that utilizes ultra-trace detection methods to find ions of many different elements that may indicate the presence of buried massive sulfide mineralization. Some orientation surveys have been done over known mineralization at Sesmarias, and it seems to work quite well.
• Review all of the old Lousal Mine data and geology in order to consider new drill targets. It is reasonable to assume that Lousal and Sesmarias were all part of the same deposit a long time ago. Are there more sulfide lenses out there between Lousal and Sesmarias (7 kilometers apart)? How much more of the remaining Lousal mineralization might be available for exploitation? Possibly 30-35 million metric tonnes of massive sulfide within the old Lousal workings.
• Review old core from the Monte da Bela Vista (MBV) stockwork zone to see where the ore deposit may be hiding. MBV is located 1.5–2 kilometers (2 km) north of Lousal. . .over 9 km of strike length in this district.
• Review the old Caveira Mine data and drilling. Caveira is under-explored and is located only 9.5 km north of Monte da Bela Vista. [Avrupa] only drilled one or two holes in the area when. . .working with Antofagasta years ago.
• Review and compile exploration data for the rest of the license, as there are lots of targets to be explored.
• Drill targeting with the hope of starting drilling by the beginning of September.

Furthermore, MATSA would like to do airborne geophysics over Alvalade and the rest of their new exploration properties in the region. This will probably be done next year to help with drill targeting for Sesmarias and for a number of other anomalies on the license.

For now, Avrupa has to put together a team in the next couple of weeks, find housing and safety equipment, clean out the coresheds, prepare for all the logging, etc. To me, the Sesmarias discovery combined with the Lousal historic resources/workings is the obvious target for MATSA, as it generates a 40–50Mt resource potential (Sesmarias 10 Lense is guesstimated to contain about 19–20Mt, Lousal a potential 20–30Mt, both guesstimated at 1% Cu or better). Avrupa and MATSA are looking to see if Sesmarias, Lousal and also Monte Da Bela Vista, all several kilometers apart from each other, could form a district-scale system.

As a reminder, MATSA will look to have the 51% earn-in and the 85% earn-in completed in those five years. If all continues to go well, Avrupa is fully carried to a production decision for MATSA to earn-in to 85%. That could very well amount to 30–40 million euros (= CA$45–60M) of NPV value for Avrupa. At that point, Avrupa can either choose to get a CA$10M payment for their 15% stake, or fund capex pro rata. As capex of such a project could easily run into a potential $300-500 million range, 15% of this would mean raising $50-80 million, which is almost impossible for a tiny junior like Avrupa.

This can be calculated easily. When a construction decision would be made, Alvalade would have to be at feasibility study (FS) stage and fully permitted. Roughly speaking, in a neutral to bull market sentiment, the enterprise value could be about 35–50% of the FS NPV value of Avrupa’s 15% stake, so about 5–7.5% of FS NPV. This would imply, at a roughly estimated FS NPV of around $500 million, an estimated enterprise value (EV) of $25–37.5 million, which is about CA$32–50 million, which in turn means, without further dilution in the meantime, that the share price hypothetically could hover in the CA$0.29–0.45 per share by then.

Raising $50–80 million or about CA$67–107 million, would mean tripling the outstanding share count if this was done all-equity, and I don’t see this being approved by any board soon. Maybe if they could sell a royalty (the project already has a 5% state royalty) and attract some debt, things could get easier to digest. I would actually prefer renegotiation of terms if metal prices advance further, as CA$10 million in cash seems to equal a rock-bottom scenario for MATSA, calculated on the back of an envelope based on $2.35–2.45 copper and $0.90–1.00 zinc, which seems to be a pretty safe downside scenario floor for them.

So much for my estimates here; let’s look at the plans at hand. According to Kuhn, MATSA works fast and expediently, as demonstrated by their 40Mt Magdalena Mine, which was developed and put into commercial production in less than three years. The JV has 1.2 million euros to work with in the first year. MATSA wants to do airborne geophysics and about 5,000 meters of drilling in the first year. It is estimated by Avrupa management that another 3,000–5,000m of drilling is needed in order to collect sufficient data for a maiden resource estimate. This is planned for H1/2021.

Also, as MATSA has been staking claims in the Pyrite Belt as mentioned, one of them adjacent to Alvalade. They will explore these licenses in their own time, concurrently with work at Alvalade.

CEO Kuhn is also busy with their Slivovo gold project. According to him, Avrupa’s 10% interest was diluted to a 2% net smelter royalty (NSR) last year. Partner Byrnecut International recently exited the project prior to expiration of the Slivovo exploration licenses. By arranging timing on this, in a “drop and apply” procedure, Avrupa was able to apply for the “open” space at exactly the same time as Byrnecut dropped, giving Avrupa the best opportunity to acquire a new seven-year exploration license to cover the Slivovo gold project. The cost of this agreement will be based on successes and milestones as the project advances, starting some two to three years from now. And these costs would be borne by any partner that Avrupa might find to bring the project to mining stage. Avrupa is actively soliciting new partnerships, even as the Kosovo mining bureau decides whether/when to issue a new license for Slivovo.

Conclusion

The granting of the experimental exploitation license is a very important milestone for Avrupa Minerals, as it finalizes the JV with MATSA on the Alvalade project. Now both parties can proceed with exploration on Sesmarias, and verification of the old Lousal workings, which could host reportedly 20-30Mt and potentially more. As with a typical prospect generator, MATSA funds all costs, although Avrupa is the joint venture operator, meaning they don’t have to sit on their hands and be completely dependent on the majority JV partner, which is a good thing as it provides much more transparency.

As Alvalade is potentially a $500 million project, I’m looking forward to milestones like the maiden resource estimate, which would mean a solid first indication of the size of Alvalade.

I hope you will find this article interesting and useful, and will have further interest in my upcoming articles on mining. To never miss a thing, please subscribe to my free newsletter on my website www.criticalinvestor.eu, and follow me on Seekingalpha.com, in order to get an email notice of my new articles soon after they are published.

The Critical Investor is a newsletter and comprehensive junior mining platform, providing analysis, blog and newsfeed and all sorts of information about junior mining. The editor is an avid and critical junior mining stock investor from The Netherlands, with an MSc background in construction/project management. Number cruncher at project economics, looking for high quality companies, mostly growth/turnaround/catalyst-driven to avoid too much dependence/influence of long-term commodity pricing/market sentiments, and often looking for long-term deep value. Getting burned in the past himself at junior mining investments by following overly positive sources that more often than not avoided to mention (hidden) risks or critical flaws, The Critical Investor learned his lesson well, and goes a few steps further ever since, providing a fresh, more in-depth, and critical vision on things, hence the name.

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Disclaimer: The author is not a registered investment advisor, and currently has a long position in this stock. Avrupa Minerals is a sponsoring company. All facts are to be checked by the reader. For more information go to www.avrupaminerals.com and read the company’s profile and official documents on www.sedar.com, also for important risk disclosures. This article is provided for information purposes only, and is not intended to be investment advice of any kind, and all readers are encouraged to do their own due diligence, and talk to their own licensed investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions.

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( Companies Mentioned: AVU:TSX.V; AVPMF:OTC; 8AM:FSE,
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By CentralBankNews.info

Kazakhstan’s central bank lowered its key interest rate for the second time this year, saying the risks of inflation are now weakening and a second COVID-19 lockdown will curb inflation amid a faster-than-expected decline in economic activity in the first half of the year.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) cut its base rate by 50 basis points to 9.0 percent, a surprise to most analysts that had expected the rate to be maintained, and NBK has now cut it by 300 points this year following a cut in April.
But since the start of 2020, NBK has only cut lowered the rate by net 25 basis points and the base rate is now back to the level seen in August last year following an emergency rate hike in March.
Although Kazakhstan’s headline inflation rate rose to 7.0 percent in June, the highest since December 2017 and up from 6.7 percent in May, the central bank said this was expected and mainly due to higher food prices while core inflation was growing slower than general inflation
The re-imposition of quarantine measures earlier this month will have the effect of suppressing consumer demand and income, holding back non-food inflation, and while inflationary expectations are stable inflation is expected to rise to 8.0 to 8.5 percent by the end of this year.
But inflation will then gradually decline to the upper boundary of the central bank’s target corridor of 4.0-6.0 percent in 2021 from quarantine measures and the decline in economic activity this year.
“The risks of dollarization growth have significantly decreased, which has expanded the potential for lowering rates,” NBK said, adding its recent efforts to protect tenge assets had helped lower the level of U.S. dollar deposits to 40.0 percent from 43.1 percent in the last six months.
In contrast to the general easing of global monetary policy in the second half of last year, NBK raised its rate by 25 basis points in September 2019 as inflationary pressures were beginning to rise from robust consumer demand.
In March this year, just as the Covid-19 pandemic was beginning to spread worldwide, NBK then raised its base rate by 275 basis points at an emergency policy meeting on March 10 to protect the value of the tenge, which was falling sharply after oil prices plunged in the wake of a price war between Russian and Saudi Arabia.
Oil accounts from around three-quarter of Kazakhstan’s exports and one-third of its economic output.
The tenge plunged 15 percent during March but then began to rebound in early April as oil prices bottomed and continued to climb until early June. Since then the tenge has eased and was trading at 381.8 to the U.S. dollar today, down 8.1 percent since the start of this year.
Kazakhstan’s economy contracted by an annual 1.8 percent in the first half of this year, above the central bank’s forecast of a 1.5 percent contraction, but mining and manufacturing is now expanding along with construction and agriculture, NBK said.
But the business activity index remains in the negative zone and the slowdown is more likely to be felt in the services and industry sectors, with lower consumer and investment activity putting pressure on aggregate demand despite higher fiscal spending.
“The situation in the external sector remains uncertain,” NBK said, noting the risks of another outbreak of the pandemic remains high and weak external demand may limit the growth of the global economy despite the recovery of China’s economy.
Other factors of uncertainty include social unrest, a possible deterioration in economic relations between the U.S. and China, continued lower inflation in developed countries, high unemployment and increased debt in some countries.
But the situation on the world oil market is seen relatively positive and oil demand is expected to rise in the second half of this year and in 2021, helping reduce the oil reserves that were accumulated since the start of this year, the central bank added.

www.CentralBankNews.info

By The Life Science Report

Source: Streetwise Reports   07/17/2020

Shares of Dynavax Technologies reached a new 52-week high after the company reported that it is collaborating with Mount Sinai to develop a universal influenza vaccine candidate with CpG 1018 adjuvant.

Biopharmaceutical company Dynavax Technologies Corp. (DVAX:NASDAQ) and the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, yesterday announced that they have “entered into a collaboration to develop a universal influenza (flu) vaccine.”

The company indicated that that Mount Sinai’s current efforts in this area have been funded under a contract from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases’ (NIAID) Collaborative Influenza Vaccine Innovation Centers’ (CIVICs) program. The firm stated that “the Mount Sinai CIVICs team will evaluate a novel approach they have developed called chimeric hemagglutinin (cHA) designed to protect against all strains of influenza in combination with Dynavax’s CpG 1018^TM adjuvant.”

The company advised that the goal of the development program will be to support an Investigational New Drug (IND) application for Phase I clinical trials.

The firm stated that, at present, there are no approved universal flu vaccines and that the seasonal influenza vaccines on the market currently are only 10% to 60% effective. The firm claimed that a universal vaccine could possibly eliminate the need for an annual seasonal flu vaccine and could additionally offer protection against newly emerging flu strains.

Peter Palese, Ph.D., Professor and Chair of the Department of Microbiology at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, commented, “We are focused on designing novel vaccine candidates and delivery platforms with an emphasis on cross-protective vaccine strategies that could be used in healthy adults as well as populations at high risk for the most serious outcomes of influenza, such as children, older adults, and pregnant women…Including CpG 1018 in these vaccines gives us an important tool to potentially improve the immune response, especially in populations that need it most like the elderly.”

Dynavax’ CEO Ryan Spencer remarked, “We are excited to partner with Mount Sinai on this important vaccine development effort that has the potential to significantly reduce the morbidity and mortality caused by influenza viruses every year…Having seen the benefit of incorporating CpG 1018 in our first commercial vaccine, we believe it has significant potential to enhance the immune response in a universal flu vaccine. This effort directly aligns with Dynavax’s goal to leverage the value of CpG 1018 across multiple diseases and vaccine approaches through collaborations with world class researchers like Mount Sinai.”

Mount Sinai’s EVP and Chief Commercial Innovation Officer Erik Lium, Ph.D., added, “Drs. Palese, Garcia-Sastre and Krammer are key global opinion leaders in virology. Their collective research programs have resulted in technologies that support the development of a universal flu vaccine…In collaboration with Dynavax, we look forward to advancing these technologies to create an effective vaccine that can reduce the 3-5 million severe cases of influenza each year.”

The company explained that influenza is a contagious respiratory illness caused by influenza viruses that can result in hospitalization or death. The firm noted that there are two epidemiological forms of influenza, seasonal and pandemic, and added that seasonal influenza epidemics which are caused by influenza A and B viruses result in 3-5 million severe cases and 300,000-500,000 deaths annually worldwide. The company stated that according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 35.5 million people yearly in the U.S. get sick with influenza, of which 16.5 million visit a healthcare provider, resulting in 490,600 hospitalizations and 34,200 deaths.

Dynavax is a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company based in Emeryville, Calif., that is developing vaccines using its adjuvant technology and expertise of Toll-like Receptor (TLR) biology to modulate the immune system. The company stated that it is advancing CpG 1018 as a premier vaccine adjuvant through research collaborations and partnerships and is also collaborating on developing adjuvanted vaccines for COVID-19, pertussis and universal influenza. The firm defined an adjuvant to be “a pharmacological or immunological agent that modifies the effect of other agents and added that adjuvants are added to a vaccine to boost the immune response to produce more antibodies and longer-lasting immunity.”

Dynavax Technologies started off the day with a market capitalization of around $964.2 million with approximately 101.6 million shares outstanding and a short interest of about 15.0%. DVAX shares opened relatively unchanged today at $9.50 (+$0.01, +0.11%) over yesterday’s $9.49 closing price and then reached a new 52-week high price this morning of $12.19. The stock has traded today between $9.50 and $12.19 per share and is currently trading at $11.29 (+$1.80, +18.97%).

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By TheTechnicalTraders 

– The US stock market stalled early this week as earnings started to hit.  A number of news and other items are pending with earnings just starting to roll in.  There have been some big numbers posted from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs.   Yet, the markets have reacted rather muted to these blowout revenues.

We believe this is a technical “Double Top” set up in the making.  The NASDAQ has been much weaker than the S&P and the Dow Industrials.  We believe the US stock market is reacting to the reality of earnings and forward guidance after the recent rally in price levels over the past 9+ weeks.  If we are correct and this Double-Top pushes price levels lower, then this technical resistance level may become the price ceiling headed into Q3 and Q4 2020.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

E-mini S&P 500, Weekly chart

his ES, E-mini S&P, Weekly chart highlights the technical Double Top pattern that we believe will become a major price ceiling as earnings and other economic data continues to be released.  This is a perfect example of how technical patterns align with fundamental data to present very clear trading signals.  If the resistance near 3220 holds as we expect, the ES price level should begin to move lower attempting to target the 3000 level.

SPY ETF Weekly Chart

This SPY ETF Weekly chart highlights the similar Double-Top pattern that has setup with further indicates strong resistance near $322 – which aligns with the original Fibonacci Bearish Trigger Level from the February peak levels (the solid RED line).  The Double-Top setup near the Fibonacci Bearish Trigger level suggests a very strong resistance level that exists near $322.  It is our opinion that this Double-Top setup near strong resistance will likely push the SPY into a downside price trend targeting $300 or lower.

Transportation Index Weekly Chart

This Transportation Index Weekly chart highlights a different type of resistance price pattern – a downward sloping price channel peak.  Unlike a Double-Top pattern, when price creates unique high price peaks that align into a price channel, we can attempt to use this channel as a price resistance channel going forward.  In this case, the peak price level in February 2020 and the peak price level in June 2020 creates a very clear downward price channel that matches the current price peak perfectly.

It is our opinion that this peak level will act as strong price resistance in the Transportation Index and should prompt a downside price trend targeting $8900 to $9000 or lower.

As global traders and investors continue to trade the forward expectations and earnings data that will last another 4+ weeks, we have to be prepared, as skilled technical traders, to trade any decent price moves that initiate as a result of price reacting to this technical resistance and moving lower.  As technical traders, we will wait for confirmation of a trading signal before jumping into a trade from these levels.  This makes a big difference in terms of accuracy.  Once we receive a confirmation of the technical pattern, we believe the trade has a much higher accuracy ratio.

In closing, be prepared for bigger downside price trends as this technical resistance works through the markets. After the peak in June 2020 and the setup of this Double-Top pattern, our researcher team believes a downside price move from current levels is highly likely.

Get our Active ETF Swing Trade Signals or if you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Passive Long-Term ETF Investing Signals which we are about to issue a new signal for subscribers.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.

TheTechnicalTraders.com

By IFCMarkets

US dollar bearish bets increase quadrupled with total net shorts reaching $16.6 billion from $14.48 against the major currencies during the one week period, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to July 14 and released on Friday July 17. The increase in net short dollar bets resulted mainly from significant increase in bullish bets on Swiss franc and euro as the index for German prices wholesalers charge for goods rose in June and the industrial production recovery accelerated both in France and Italy. The Pound and Canadian dollar maintained net short positions against the dollar, while Australian dollar left the trio of major currencies with net short positions against the greenback. The bearish dollar bets rose again despite US Labor Department report 1.3 million Americans filed for first-time unemployment benefits when 1.4 new applications were expected in the prior week, while the federal budget deficit more than doubled in June.

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Note:
This overview has an informative and tutorial character and is published for free. All the data, included in the overview, are received from public sources, recognized as more or less reliable. Moreover, there is no guarantee that the indicated information is full and precise. Overviews are not updated. The whole information in each overview, including opinion, indicators, charts and anything else, is provided only for familiarization purposes and is not financial advice or а recommendation. The whole text and its any part, as well as the charts cannot be considered as an offer to make a deal with any asset. IFC Markets and its employees under any circumstances are not liable for any action taken by someone else during or after reading the overview.