On Wednesday the 22nd of April, trading on the euro closed down. The pair rose to 1.0872 in the European session, and all was good until the ECB announced that it’s taking preliminary measures to prevent its credit rating from being slashed. Standard & Poors may downgrade Italy’s credit rating on Friday.
The euro had been under pressure from the crosses since morning, and with a 70-pip drop on the EURGBP pair, the bears had no problem reaching fresh weekly lows. The GBPUSD pair closed the day up. Investors adjusted their positions ahead of the EU meeting, where member states will discuss financial support measures for the Eurozone.
The euro has been in a sideways trend for the last 5 days, trading within a corridor of 90 pips. At the bottom end of this range, we’ve had two false breakouts of the 1.0817 low (from 16/04) because the pair bounced back on account of stock indices. On the other hand, there is pressure on the euro, which could send it down as far as 1.0727.
Yesterday, trading on all components of the S&P 500 closed up. The raw materials market made the most gains at 3.8%. Interest in these increased among buyers amid the recovery in oil prices and news that the US Senate has approved a new funding scheme for hospitals, small businesses, and for increased coronavirus testing. The aid package is worth a total of 484bn USD.
Today’s focus is the preliminary services and manufacturing PMI figures for Germany, France, Italy, the Eurozone, and the UK. Figures for the US will also be released later in the day. Markets are already braced for a bad showing. If the results are better than expected, this will give markets a boost.
The current situation is uncertain. With this level of uncertainty as to what’s going on, it’s best to wait on the sidelines. The 5-day flat is coming to an end, and there should be a strong movement either today or tomorrow. There’s a high probability of some false breakouts from the current range of 1.0800 – 1.0900.
The 1.0800 – 1.0817 range is bolstered by 4 lows. It’s unclear where exactly the bulls have placed their stop levels on their long positions. One thing we’re sure about is that a lot of traders are buying the euro at the lower line of the channel in the hope that there will be a bounce. It’s a cause for concern that the pair is trading below the balance line, and that the moving averages are looking down, not up.
After falling towards 1.0820, EURUSD has completed the ascending structure at 1.0880, thus forming a new consolidation range around 1.0844, which may be considered as a downside continuation pattern. According to the main scenario, the price is expected to start another decline to reach 1.0800 and then resume growing to return to 1.0844. After that, the instrument may form a new descending structure with the target at 1.0750.
GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
After reaching the target of the third descending wave at 1.2250, GBPUSD is consolidating below this level. Possibly, the pair may grow towards 1.2333 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.2190. Later, the market may start a new correction with the target at 1.2415.
USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”
After breaking 75.30 to the upside, USDRUB is still growing. Today, the pair may extend this wave to reach 78.05 and then start a new correction to return to 75.30.
USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”
USDJPY is forming a wide consolidation range around 107.60. Possibly, today the pair may expand the range up to 107.90 and then return to 107.60. After that, the instrument may expand the range again up to 108.07. However, if the price breaks 107.60 to the downside, the market may start another decline to expand the range down to 107.20.
USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”
After expanding the consolidation range up to 0.9726 and then down to 0.9675, USDCHF is moving not far from 0.9700, right in the middle of the range, which may be considered as an upside continuation pattern. The main scenario implies that the price may break the upside border and reach the first target at 0.9740. However, if the pair breaks the downside border, the market may correct towards 0.9650 and then resume trading upwards to reach the above-mentioned target.
AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”
After finishing the descending structure towards 0.6235 and then completing the correction at 0.6352, AUDUSD is expected to continue falling and reach 0.6228. Possibly, the pair may form a downside continuation pattern. After that, the instrument may grow to reach 0.6288 and then resume trading inside the downtrend with the short-term target at 0.6183.
BRENT
Brent is moving downwards. Possibly, the pair may reach 15.70 and then resume growing towards 18.60, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If later the price breaks 25.00 to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 21.90.
XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”
After completing the descending wave at 1660.00, Gold is trading upwards with the short-term target at 1694.20. After that, the instrument may correct towards 1682.22 and then form one more ascending structure to reach 1702.70.
BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”
BTCUSD is consolidating above 6800.00. According to the main scenario, the price is expected to grow to break 7000.00 and then continue trading upwards with the target at 7700.00. Later, the market may start a new correction to reach 6800.00.
S&P 500
S&P 500 is still correcting. Possibly, the price may form a new descending structure towards 2681.3 and then start another growth to break 2800.5. After that, the instrument may resume trading inside the uptrend with the short-term target at 2927.6.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
As we can see in the H4 chart, the divergence made the pair start a new decline, which may be considered as a descending correction. At the same time, one should realize that only a decline towards the low at 1.1409 and a breakout of this level may really force a trend reversal. If the price breaks the low at 1.1409, the instrument may continue falling towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1.1365 and 1.0996 respectively. After finishing the correctional downtrend, the price may resume trading upwards to reach the local high at 1.2648 and then 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 1.2892 and 1.3242 respectively.
The H1 chart shows a more detailed structure of the current correction. The pair is approaching 38.2% fibo at 1.2175 and may later reach 50.05% fibo at 1.2030. The resistance is the high at 1.2648. MACD lines are directed downwards, thus indicating further decline.
EURJPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”
As we can see in the H4 chart, EURJPY is slowing and steadily falling towards its key lows at 116.13 and 115.85. If these levels are broken, the instrument may continue trading towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 113.20 and 111.55 respectively. The price may yet try to reach 76.0% fibo at 121.25, but this scenario is rather unlikely.
In the H1 chart, the local convergence made the pair start a new correctional uptrend, which has already reached 23.6% fibo. The next upside targets may be 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 117.30, 117.63, and 117.96 respectively. The support is the low at 116.22.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
The US dollar has risen again relative to a basket of major currencies. The US dollar index (#DX) closed in the positive zone (+0.32). Yesterday, the US Senate approved a $484 billion coronavirus aid bill aimed at supporting the US economy. The House of Representatives should vote on the bill on Thursday. It will be the fourth package of measures to fight coronavirus. Also, yesterday, US President Donald Trump announced an immigration ban for 60 days. This ban was initiated to help Americans who are trying to regain jobs lost due to coronavirus. Trump said the suspension of immigration would put “unemployed Americans first in line for jobs” as the country reopens.
The Australian dollar has been growing. According to preliminary data from the country’s statistical office, retail sales jumped by 8.2% in March compared to February figures. The record growth was caused by the rush demand for food and essential goods under quarantine and self-isolation. However, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Philip Lowe, said that in the first half of the year, Australia’s economy could show the biggest contraction since the Great Depression.
The “black gold” prices have fallen again. Currently, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the $11.00 mark per barrel. At 17:30 (GMT+3:00), US crude oil inventories will be published.
Market indicators
Yesterday, there was the bearish sentiment in the US stock market: #SPY (-3.04%), #DIA (-2.71%), #QQQ (-3.69%).
The 10-year US government bonds yield fell again. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 0.60-0.61%.
The news feed on 2020.04.22:
– UK consumer price index at 09:00 (GMT+3:00);
– Canada’s core consumer price index at 15:30 (GMT+3:00).
– A very interesting setup is currently taking place in the VIX chart with our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system that has us quite concerned. The Daily VIX chart running our Fibonacci Price Modeling system, which is one of our primary price modeling tools, is suggesting upside price targets for the VIX near 110, 134 and 158. The reason these levels are extended into future price expectations is because of the recent explosion in volatility over the past 90 days.
Yet, the real concern originates from the question “what would it take for the VIX to rally to these levels and is this a real possibility in the current global markets?”. So, we attempted to answer that question by attempting to identify what it would take for the VIX to skyrocket above 110 in the near future.
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Volatility Index (VIX) Daily Chart
First, pay attention to this VIX Daily chart and the targeted levels above 100. Please understand that in order for the VIX to skyrocket higher reaching levels above 100 would require another massive downside price move in the US and global markets – something unexpected and very dramatic. Is this an unrealistic expectation given the current global market environment headed into Q2 and Q3? We really don’t believe it is an unrealistic potential expectation at this point.
We’ve recently authored a series of articles suggesting the global markets are marching through a human psychological process related to the virus event (crisis). Somewhat similar to the “Grieving Process”, a crisis event prompts a similar set of human emotions ending in an angry and helpless feeling. We believe this early stage crisis event process has positioned the global markets clearly within the Denial and Stigmatization phase of the crisis event. These are the Second and Third human responses to a major crisis event (Source: www.orau.gov/).
If we are correct and the markets are reacting to the Denial and Stigmatization phases of this virus event, then the next transitional phases are Fear and Withdrawal/Hopelessness. Could this transition into a more fearful human instinct prompt a massive collapse in the US and global markets? If so, what would be the cause of this transition into fear?
We believe the transition may come from the continued economic strain that is likely to become very evident in Q2 and Q3 of 2020. Right now, the US stock market is only -10% to -15% from recent all-time highs. The reality of the virus event for traders is that this is only a minor blip in the markets so far. Yes, the markets fell much lower recently, but traders/investors have shrugged off the real risks and put their faith into the US Fed and global central banks to navigate a successful recovery. What if that doesn’t happen as we expect?
What if the real numbers for Q2 and Q3 come in dramatically lower than expected? What if global GDP contracts by -10% or -15% for the next 12+ months? What if consumers don’t return as quickly as we expect?
The Race To Cash and Bonds Again: I talked with Cory Fleck from Korelin Economics Report today. Listen to our thoughts on the race to the safe-haven assets, bonds, and cash. What about gold and gold stocks? These have been more correlated to the US markets but the charts of the major stocks and gold are still very bullish.
Take a look at this Weekly YM Chart and pay attention to the downward sloping price channels that help guide us to a conclusion. Additionally, the Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is showing us a new target near 12,475. If this is accurate, then a breakdown in price over the next 6+ months may push the YM to levels near 12,500 (-50% from the recent peak in April 2020). A move like this would certainly prompt a massive increase in the VIX and would frighten traders, investors, and consumers into a “helplessness” mentality. What can you do when the markets are collapsing like this except wait for the bottom.
The one thing we can be certain of is that at long as humans exist on this planet, economies will continue to function at some level. Being human in today’s world means we engage in economic activity and trade. Therefore, we believe there is a moderate risk that the US and global markets have completely misinterpreted the true price valuations and expectations based on this research. Simply put, we believe a Denial phase has taken root where investors and traders simply deny and ignore the real potential for future collapse.
I keep pounding my fists on the table hoping people can see what I am trying to warn them about, which is the next major market crash, much worse than what we saw in March. See this article and video for a super easy to understand the scenario that is playing out as we speak.
If you want to learn more about the Super-Cycles and Generational Cycles that are taking place in the markets right now, please take a minute to review our Change Your Thinking – Change Your Future book detailing our research into these super-cycles. It is almost impossible to believe that our researchers called this move back in March 2019 in our book and reports.
As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders. Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.
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The technical pattern is still ambiguous on the EUR/USD currency pair. The euro is being traded in a flat. At the moment, the local support and resistance levels are 1.0845 and 1.0875, respectively. Financial market participants assess the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. The “black gold” prices have reached multi-year lows due to a significant drop in demand. Over the past month, the number of jobless claims in the US has exceeded 20 million. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
Today, the publication of important economic releases is not expected.
Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA.
The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.
Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates the bullish sentiment.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.0845, 1.0815, 1.0800
Resistance levels: 1.0875, 1.0900, 1.0935
If the price fixes below 1.0845, the EUR/USD currency pair is expected to fall. The movement is tending to the round level of 1.0800.
An alternative could be the growth of EUR/USD quotes to 1.0900-1.0930.
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.24286
Open: 1.22863
% chg. over the last day: -1.15
Day’s range: 1.22746 – 1.23306
52 wk range: 1.1466 – 1.3516
There are aggressive sales on the GBP/USD currency pair. The British pound has reached two-week lows. The demand for risky assets is still low. Currently, GBP/USD quotes are consolidating. The local support and resistance levels are 1.2275 and 1.2335, respectively. We do not exclude a further drop in GBP/USD quotes. We recommend opening positions from key support and resistance levels.
In March, the consumer price index in the UK met market expectations and counted to 1.5% (y/y).
Indicators signal the power of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA.
The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell GBP/USD.
Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which gives a signal to buy GBP/USD.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.2275, 1.2250, 1.2200
Resistance levels: 1.2335, 1.2390, 1.2445
If the price fixes above 1.2335, further growth of GBP/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.2380-1.2400.
An alternative could be a decrease in the GBP/USD currency pair to 1.2240-1.2220.
The USD/CAD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.41448
Open: 1.42103
% chg. over the last day: +0.44
Day’s range: 1.41607 – 1.42376
52 wk range: 1.2949 – 1.4668
USD/CAD quotes have become stable after a prolonged rally. At the moment, the trading instrument is testing the “mirror” support of 1.4160. The 1.4245 mark is the key resistance. The loonie is still under pressure amid aggressive sales in the “black gold” market. We do not exclude further growth of the USD/CAD currency pair. Investors expect important economic reports from Canada. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
At 15:30 (GMT+3:00), inflation data will be published in Canada.
Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price is testing 50 MA.
The MACD histogram has started to decline, indicating a possible correction of the USD/CAD currency pair.
Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates the bearish sentiment.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.4160, 1.4110, 1.4050
Resistance levels: 1.4245, 1.4300
If the price fixes below the support level of 1.4160, USD/CAD quotes are expected to correct. The movement is tending to 1.4120-1.4100.
An alternative could be the growth of the USD/CAD currency pair to 1.4270-1.4300.
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 107.612
Open: 107.761
% chg. over the last day: +0.14
Day’s range: 107.516 – 107.868
52 wk range: 101.19 – 112.41
The USD/JPY currency pair is still being traded in a prolonged flat. There is no defined trend. Financial market participants expect additional drivers. At the moment, the local support and resistance levels are 107.50 and 107.85, respectively. Demand for “safe haven” currencies remains at a fairly high level. We recommend paying attention to the dynamics of US government bonds yield. Positions should be opened from key levels.
The news feed on Japan’s economy is calm.
Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA and 100 MA.
The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.
Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 107.50, 107.25, 106.95
Resistance levels: 107.85, 108.10
If the price fixes below the support level of 107.50, a further drop in the USD/JPY quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 107.20-107.00.
An alternative could be the growth of the USD/JPY currency pair to 108.10-108.30.
After Gold pushed above 1,700 USD for the first time since 2012, marking new yearly highs, the precious metal is now seeing a correction, even though the overall bullish picture hasn’t substantially changed.
A potential technical driver for the current corrective move is the potential bearish divergence in the RSI(14) on the daily time-frame pointing which pointed to some diminishing bullish momentum and left the break to new highs already at an earlier time with a grain of salt in our opinion.
The first potential target can now be found around 1,650 USD, but looking at Gold from a purely technical perspective leaves us with a clearly bullish impression as long as we trade above 1,440/450 USD, a little shorter above 1,555 USD.
Fundamentally, in the short-term, a new wave of de-leveraging hitting global financial markets remains an option, mainly driven by the given global USD shortage, resulting in a new wave of aggressive selling in Gold due to liquidity reasons.
Mid- to long-term Gold stays bullish, especially given the massive monetary stimulus from the Fed over the last weeks with pumping its balance sheet to now over six trillion USD:
Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between January 21, 2019, to April 21, 2020). Accessed: April 21, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.
In 2015, the value of Gold fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, in 2019, it increased by 18.9%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 28%.
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On Tuesday the 21st of April, trading on the euro closed 4 pips down at 1.0856. The pair continued its sideways trend, trading within a corridor of 1.0815 to 1.0897. The US dollar was trading up in the first half of the day, before losing ground in the second.
In the Asian session, the collapse in oil prices continued. US stock indices took a dive. As investors moved towards safe haven assets, the US dollar went up, while US10Y bond yields went down. In the US session, the EURUSD pair bounced from 1.0817 to reach 1.0850.
Day’s news (GMT+3):
15:30 Canada: CPI (Mar).
16:00 US: housing price index (Feb).
17:00 Eurozone: consumer confidence (Apr).
17:30 US: EIA crude oil stocks change (17 Apr).
Current situation:
The pair has been trading sideways since the 16th of April. Due to the situation with oil, the future direction is unclear. S&P 500 futures are trading up. Oil prices are correcting following their collapse. This gives us reason to believe that the EURUSD pair will rise to 1.0905. For now, we can’t see it rising any further since all the euro crosses are in the red. This is more indicative of an impending downwards reversal.
British CPI data rose 1.5% year-on-year in March compared to 1.7% in February (forecast: 1.5%). This data sent the pound upwards.
Today, Canada will publish data on consumer prices and housing prices, while Eurozone data on consumer confidence is set to be released. Today’s main event is the EIA crude oil stocks change report. Yesterday’s API report showed stocks had risen by 13.2 million barrels. Considering that WTI oil prices went negative for the first time in history, there can’t be a negative reaction to this news.
As we can see in the H4 chart, EURUSD is forming a new rising channel. In the short-term, EURUSD is expected to form a Harami pattern not far from the support level. We may assume that later the price may rebound from the channel’s downside border and resume the ascending tendency. In this case, the upside target may be at 1.0985. At the same time, there is another scenario, which implies that the price may continue falling to reach 1.0787.
USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”
As we can see in the H4 chart, the pair continues trading close to the support level. At the moment, after reversing, USDJPY is correcting towards 107.05. The current situation implies that the price may form several reversal patterns not far from the support level and then resume growing to reach 109.00. However, the scenario according to which the instrument may yet break the horizontal level is possible but rather unlikely.
EURGBP, “Euro vs. Great Britain Pound”
As we can see in the H4 chart, after slowing down at the support level, the pair continues trading sideways and forming reversal patterns, such as Hammer and Doji. We may assume that later EURGBP may break the support level and get back inside the descending channel. In this case, the downside target may be at 0.8660. Still, one shouldn’t exclude an opposite scenario, which implies that the instrument may rebound from the support level and resume growing to reach the upside target at 0.8850.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
XAUUSD is trading at 1689.00; the instrument is moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1675.00 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1775.00. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1645.00. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1605.00. After breaking the descending channel’s upside border and fixing above 1710.00, the price may resume moving upwards.
GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
GBPUSD is trading at 1.2406; the instrument is moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1.2510 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.1935. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes below 1.2545. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.2655. After breaking the rising channel’s downside border and fixing below 1.2335, the price may resume moving downwards.
AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”
AUDUSD is trading at 0.6312; the instrument is moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the support level at 0.6270 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.6555. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the downside border of the Triangle pattern. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.6180. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6095. After breaking the upside border of the Triangle pattern and fixing above 0.6375, the price may resume moving upwards.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.