InvestMacro

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from 1.0900, EURUSD continues falling with the target at 1.0820. According to the main scenario, the price is expected to reach this level and then consolidate near these lows. After that, the instrument may break the range to the upside and start a new correction to return to 1.0900 and test it from below.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After completing the correction at 1.2482, GBPUSD is forming a new descending structure with the first target at 1.2363. Later, the market may consolidate near these lows. After that, the instrument may break the range to the upside and start another correction towards 1.2500.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB continues falling towards 73.41. After that, the instrument may start a new growth to reach 74.74 and then resume trading downwards with the short-term target at 71.30.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After finishing the correction at 106.88 and then rebounding from this level to the downside, USDJPY has broken 106.60. The main scenario implies that the price may continue trading downwards with the short-term target at 107.55.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After breaking 0.9670 to the upside, USDCHF is expected to continue growing towards 0.9750. Today, the pair may reach this level and then consolidate near these highs. Later, the market may break the range to the downside and start another correction to return to 0.9670.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After completing the correction at 0.6466 and then forming a new consolidation range below this level, AUDUSD has broken it to the downside. Possibly, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6363 and then consolidate near these lows. After that, the instrument may break the range to the upside and form one more ascending correction with the target at 0.6464.

BRENT

After finishing the third ascending wave at 32.32, Brent is expected to consolidate close to these highs. After that, the instrument may break the range to the downside and correct towards 27.00. Later, the market may resume trading upwards with the first target at 38.20.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After reaching the correctional target at 1690.00, Gold is forming another ascending wave towards 1718.25. After that, the instrument may consolidate around this level. If later the price breaks the range to the upside, the market may continue growing with the short-term target at 1745.25.

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After completing the correction at 8800.00 and rebounding from this level to the upside, BTCUSD is forming another ascending structure towards 9120.00. After that, the instrument may consolidate. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may start a new correction to return to 8800.00; if to the upside – resume trading upwards with the target at 10000.00.

S&P 500

After finishing the correction at 2877.2, the Index is falling with the target at 2798.0. Later, the market may consolidate. After that, the instrument may break the range to the downside and the form a new descending structure towards 2691.4.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

What can we see in the H4 chart? It looks like the pair is going to continue trading downwards in the nearest future, because it has failed to break the high at 1.2648. After testing the high and rebounding from it, GBPUSD is forming a new correctional structure to the downside with the target at 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 1.2175, 1.2030, and 1.1881 respectively.

The H1 chart shows a more detailed structure of the current descending wave. The pair is approaching 23.6% fibo and may break it to continue falling towards 38.2% fibo at 1.2175. This scenario is confirmed by the downward dynamics of the MACD lines.

EURJPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the daily chart, after breaking the previous low at 115.86, EURJPY has managed to fix below it. In the future, the pair may continue falling towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 113.20 and 111.54 respectively. the current resistance is at 76.0% fibo (117.54).

In the H4 chart, after finishing the short-term pullback, the pair is forming a new descending wave. One should pay attention that the current descending tendency is rather slow. At the same time, there might be a convergence on MACD to indicate a new correction soon to reach 76.0% fibo at 117.54.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The US dollar continues to grow against a basket of major currencies. The US dollar index (#DX) has updated local highs and closed in the positive zone (+0.20%). US Deputy National Security Advisor Matthew Pottinger has tried to ease the tension between the US and China. The official says that the United States is not going to apply “punitive measures” against China in the context of combat with the epidemic, taking a more peaceful position.

The single currency is under pressure after the German Federal Court of Justice accused the ECB of having exceeded its authority by launching a quantitative easing program in 2015. Now the ECB should prove the validity of the bond-buying program. Otherwise, the Bundesbank will stop participating in a program to rebuild economies that have suffered from the coronavirus pandemic.

Today, during the Asian trading session, optimistic economic data from New Zealand and Australia have been published. Thus, the level of employment in the 1st quarter (q/q) increased by 0.7%, while experts expected a decline by 0.3%. Australia’s retail sales rose by 8.5% instead of a forecasted growth by 8.2%.

The “black gold” prices continue to recover. Currently, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the $25.40 mark per barrel. At 17:30 (GMT+3:00), US crude oil inventories will be published.

Market indicators

Yesterday, there was the bullish sentiment in the US stock market: #SPY (+0.92%), #DIA (+0.58%), #QQQ (+1.13%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield has grown again. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 0.67-0.68%.

• – UK construction PMI at 11:30 (GMT+3:00);
• – ADP nonfarm employment change at 15:15 (GMT+3:00).

by JustForex

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.09046
• Open: 1.08408
• % chg. over the last day: -0.62
• Day’s range: 1.08163 – 1.08450
• 52 wk range: 1.0777 – 1.1494

EUR/USD quotes continue to show a negative trend. The trading instrument has updated local lows. The single currency is under pressure after an unexpected decision of the Federal Constitutional Court of Germany, which may put into question the country’s participation in the ECB stimulus program. At the moment, the EUR/USD currency pair is consolidating in the range of 1.0815-1.0855. The euro has the potential for further decline against the greenback. We expect the publication of important statistics. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 06.05.2020

• – Indicators of economic activity in the Eurozone at 11:00 (GMT+3:00);
• – Retail sales in the Eurozone at 12:00 (GMT+3:00);
• – ADP nonfarm employment change at 15:15 (GMT+3:00).

Indicators signal the power of sellers: the price has fixed below 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell EUR/USD.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0815, 1.0785, 1.0760
• Resistance levels: 1.0855, 1.0885, 1.0925

If the price fixes below 1.0815, a further drop in the EUR/USD currency pair is expected. The movement is tending to 1.0780-1.0750.

An alternative could be the growth of EUR/USD quotes to 1.0880-1.0920.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.24408
• Open: 1.24384
• % chg. over the last day: -0.06
• Day’s range: 1.24224 – 1.24507
• 52 wk range: 1.1466 – 1.3516

The GBP/USD currency pair is still being traded in a flat. There is no defined trend. Local support and resistance levels are 1.2425 and 1.2485, respectively. Financial market participants expect the Bank of England meeting, which will be held on Thursday, May 07. Today we recommend paying attention to the news feed on the US economy. Positions should be opened from key support and resistance levels.

At 11:30 (GMT+3:00), the UK construction PMI will be published.

Indicators do not give accurate signals: 50 MA has crossed 100 MA.

The MACD histogram has approached the 0 mark.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates the bullish sentiment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2425, 1.2385, 1.2315
• Resistance levels: 1.2485, 1.2515, 1.2570

If the price fixes below the support level of 1.2425, GBP/USD quotes are expected to fall. The movement is tending to 1.2380-1.2350.

An alternative could be the growth of the GBP/USD currency pair to 1.2530-1.2560.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.40862
• Open: 1.40499
• % chg. over the last day: -0.27
• Day’s range: 1.40230 – 1.40776
• 52 wk range: 1.2949 – 1.4668

There is an ambiguous technical pattern on the USD/CAD currency pair. A trading instrument is consolidating. The loonie is testing the following key support and resistance levels: 1.4005 and 1.4075, respectively. Investors expect additional drivers. We recommend paying attention to the dynamics of “black gold” prices. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The news feed on Canada’s economy is calm.

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has fixed between 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram has moved into the negative zone, which signals the power of sellers.

Stochastic Oscillator is near the oversold zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.4005, 1.3940
• Resistance levels: 1.4075, 1.4115, 1.4150

If the price fixes below the support level of 1.4005, USD/CAD quotes are expected to fall. The movement is tending to 1.3960-1.3940.

An alternative could be the growth of the USD/CAD currency pair to 1.4100-1.4140.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 106.723
• Open: 106.470
• % chg. over the last day: -0.14
• Day’s range: 106.207 – 106.618
• 52 wk range: 101.19 – 112.41

The USD/JPY currency pair has been declining. The trading instrument has set new local lows. USD/JPY quotes found support at the level of 106.20. The 106.45 mark is already a “mirror” resistance. The demand for “safe haven” currencies is still high. The yen has the potential for further growth against the US currency. We recommend paying attention to the dynamics of US government bonds yield. Positions should be opened from key levels.

Indicators signal the power of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, indicating the bearish sentiment.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has started crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 106.20, 106.00
• Resistance levels: 106.45, 106.60, 106.85

If the price fixes below 106.20, a further drop in USD/JPY quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 107.90-107.60.

An alternative could be the growth of the USD/JPY currency pair to 106.70-107.00.

by JustForex

By Admiral Markets

Source: Economic Events May 6, 2020 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

On Wednesday, Gold traders will watch the ADP employment change in excitement.

After ADP data dropped to -27,000 in March, showing the first fall in private payrolls since September of 2017 with the report only including data through March 12th and thus not fully reflecting the impact of the coronavirus, analysts expect the ADP employment change to come in at -20 million.

Especially after initial jobless claims showing a number of over 30 million over the course of the last six weeks, this expectation seems to draw a more realistic picture of the current US employment situation, given the Corona lockdown.

Any number which comes in even worse could realistically trigger a next sharper leg up in the yellow metal, bringing the region around 1,750 USD back into focus in the days to come.

On the other hand, we’d again like to point out the bearish divergence in the RSI(14) on a daily time-frame (orange) which would be confirmed with a break below 1,660 USD and make a deeper corrective move as low as 1,630/35 USD possible.

Still, With that in mind, we keep our bullish take on Gold, favour Long engagements from a risk-reward perspective, but also from a purely technical perspective as long as we trade above 1,440/450 USD.

If we the short-term corrective move accelerates, a potential first target around 1,650 USD while a first target on the upside can be found around 1,800 USD:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between February 4, 2019, to May 5, 2020). Accessed: May 5, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of Gold fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, in 2019, it increased by 18.9%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 28%.

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Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

1. This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
3. Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter “Author”) based on the Author’s personal estimations.
4. To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
6. The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.
7. Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
8. The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.
9. Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the risks.

By Admiral Markets

By Richard Gunderman, Indiana University

It seems that science has been taking a beating lately. From decades of denial by the tobacco industry that smoking causes cancer to more recent attempts to use the COVID-19 pandemic to score political points, a presumption seems to have taken root that it is okay to seek and speak the truth only when it suits personal interest.

In times like these, we urgently need leaders who know what they are talking about and whose commitment to truth exceeds their loyalty to party or person – among them, the sort of people long known as scientists (“those who know,” the literal meaning of scientist). COVID-19 is a kind of plague, but so is ignorance, and only by addressing the latter can society tackle the former.

This year marks what is believed by many to be the 800th birthday of an especially courageous truth seeker, the English polymath Roger Bacon. Though other scientists came before him, his breadth of study has led many to call him “the first scientist.” Were he alive today, Bacon would likely be pursuing the truth about such matters as the coronavirus and its effects on society, as well as the need for personal and political virtues to overcome it.

Roger Bacon’s pursuit of the truth

Because Bacon lived so long ago, we know more about his ideas than his life. Born in Somerset, England, his family appears to have been well off, and he studied and taught at two of Europe’s oldest universities, beginning at Oxford. After earning his master of arts degree, he accepted an invitation to teach at the University of Paris for about a decade before eventually returning to Oxford.

Bacon was one of those remarkable human beings who seem to know just about everything. An expert on the thought of the ancient philosopher Aristotle, he also taught mathematics, astronomy, music, optics, alchemy (a forerunner of chemistry), moral philosophy and theology. Because of the depth and breadth of learning reflected in his Opus Majus (“Great Work”), composed at the Pope’s request to describe his studies, he became known as Doctor Mirabilis or “Wonderful Teacher.”

Bacon believed that the improvement of human life, both personally and socially, depends on the eradication of error. To correct what ails society, it is necessary to restore respect for learning, real-world experience and the pursuit of truth. So long as people go forth with a false map of reality, they will lose their way and never reach their true destination.

The importance of the right question

Bacon argued that there are four causes of error: 1) weak and unworthy authority, 2) longstanding customs, 3) the opinions of ignorant crowds, and 4) the hiding of ignorance through displays of apparent knowledge.

What people often lack, Bacon believed, are not correct answers but the best questions. To advance knowledge, people must subject authorities to scrutiny, winnowing away the unreliable. Who is speaking the truth, and on what basis, and who is merely mouthing what people want to hear?

In Bacon’s view, too many people lapse into a credulity of habit, simply accepting what they have been told over and over. To combat this tendency, he called for experimentation, but not only in the sense of a scientific laboratory. He believed that people should put their ideas on trial, seeing how well they fare when tested in the real world of experience. What doesn’t hold up should be rejected.

Bacon gave the example of fire, writing, “Reasoning draws a conclusion and makes us grant the conclusion, but does not make the conclusion certain, nor does it remove doubt so that the mind may rest on the intuition of truth, unless the mind discovers it by the path of experience.” Only someone who actually sees fire burn will understand what it can do.

Without proper habits of mind, Bacon argued, society would be mired in ignorance and failure. Only if institutions of learning such as universities fulfill their proper function can society find and stick to its proper course. And all persons, he believed, have both the capacity and the responsibility to think for themselves and keep their community on track.

Bacon expressed deep antipathy toward those who merely pretend to know, such as magicians who pretend to use scientific methods. Princeton philosopher Harry Frankfurt more recently referred to such pretenders as “bullshitters.” Ignorance is bad, but pretending to know is even worse, because it undermines trust.

On ignorance and corruption

Bacon treated ignorance so harshly partly because he saw that it sowed the seeds of corruption.

Extrapolating from Bacon, regular scrutiny is necessary if political leaders are to act responsibly. The last thing any good political leader needs is to be surrounded by yes men. It is through the contest between differing points of view that people are most likely to arrive at the truth.

This perspective helps to explain both Bacon’s promotion of the science he called “perspective” and his lifelong dedication to the study of languages such as Greek and Hebrew. To determine the best perspective from which to understand something, it is first necessary to look at it from multiple points of view.

Above all, Bacon promoted humility. People must seek to know the truth and cling to what they have proved by experience to be valid. But they must also recognize the limits of their own knowledge, seek out the advice of experts, and pursue deeper understanding.

This was Bacon’s life’s work. “No one,” he wrote, “worked in so many sciences and languages as I did, nor so much as I. And yet I did not work that much, since in the pursuit of wisdom no work” – of the sort one might resent – “was required.”

Like Aristotle, he believed that it is human nature to desire to know. There is, he held, nothing more natural and also more necessary and beneficial to humanity than pursuing the truth.

This article has been updated to remove a quote that cannot be confirmed as Roger Bacon’s.

About the Author:

Richard Gunderman, Chancellor’s Professor of Medicine, Liberal Arts, and Philanthropy, Indiana University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

By TheTechnicalTraders

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Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Technical Traders Ltd.

By TheTechnicalTraders

– Overnight, Natural Gas broke above the $2.00 price level as we expected.  On April 6, 2020, we published our research that Natural Gas was setting up a bottom pattern and that our seasonal analysis suggested April and May should prompt a price rally in Natural Gas pushing price levels above $2.40.

The current rally has broken above a price resistance level near $2.00 and the rally up to $2.40 may happen faster than we expect.  Currently, our Daily Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting the $2.35 area is the first area of resistance.  Beyond that, the next level of resistance would be near $2.90.  Beyond that incredible upside target, the Fibonacci Weekly data is projecting an upper target near $3.60.

We are not suggesting that Natural Gas could rally 90% over the next few weeks, but we are alerting you that a move to $2.40 seems highly likely after our incredible bottom call on April 6, 2020.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

Daily Natural Gas Chart

This Daily Natural Gas chart highlights the rounded bottom setup that prompted us to make the bottom warning.  Skilled traders will see an inverted Head-n-Shoulders pattern where the head consists of a double-bottom pattern near the end of March and into early April.  The opportunity to buy into Natural Gas below $1.70 presented a very clear opportunity with little risk.

Weekly Natural Gas Chart

This Weekly Natural Gas chart highlights the Fibonacci Price Modeling system’s projected upside targets.  The first target, near $2.40, is an easy target for a first profit level.  The next upside target level for-profits should be near the RED LINE, near $2.55.  Beyond that, if Natural Gas continues to rally, the next area for skilled traders to pull profits would be the $2.95 level.  Any move higher beyond that level would be a gift with a target level near $3.60.

Concluding Thoughts:

Overall, this has been an excellent trade.  We got our members into this trade fairly early and are already pulling profits and trailing stops.  It certainly helps to have the modeling systems and seasonal analysis tools we use to find these setups for our members – but you can do it too.  All it takes is a bit of skill and understanding of how certain markets operate within seasonal trends and setups.  Otherwise, if you don’t have the time to research every chart we can do it all for you and just send you the trades we are taking.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors.  Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.

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Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
TheTechnicalTraders.com

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is trading at 1.0907 above the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the indicator Cloud near 1.0875 is expected, followed by growth to 1.1045. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the ascending channel. The growth will be canceled in the case of a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and closing below 1.0805, which will mean further falling to 1.0715.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is trading at 1701 above the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting an uptrend. A test of the lower border of the indicator Cloud near 1690 is expected, followed by growth to 1755. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the support level. The growth will be canceled in the case of a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and closing below 1679, which will mean further falling to 1645. The growth will be confirmed by a breakaway of the resistance area and closing above 1712, which will mean the completion of a Head and Shoulders pattern.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is trading at 0.6458 above the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting an uptrend. A test of the lower border of the indicator Cloud near 0.6400 is expected, followed by growth to 0.6585. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the support level. The growth will be canceled in the case of a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and closing below 0.6365, which will mean further falling to 0.6285.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Having tested a horizontal support level, gold formed a reversal Harami pattern. Currently, the pair keeps working off the signal of the candlestick pattern. The target level of the growth remains at 1750.00. However, the price may still return to 1672.00.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand vs. US Dollar”

On H4, the pair is still moving inside an ascending channel. It keeps working off the signal of a reversal Harami pattern. The target level of growth is 0.6147. However, the price may still correct to 0.6020 before the ascending dynamics resumes.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

On H4, the pair tested the lower border of the channel and formed several reversal patterns, including an inverted Hammer. It is currently moving inside an ascending channel, working off the signals of the reversal patterns. At the present stage, the target level for the growth is 1.2582. However, the price may pull back to 1.2425 before it goes on growing.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.