As we can see in the H4 chart, after testing the resistance level, forming a Harami pattern, and then reversing, XAUUSD has tested 1705.00 and rebounded from the support level. The current upside target is the resistance level at 1750.00. If the price continues growing, it may reach the next resistance area at 1760.00. At the same time, there might be another scenario, according to which the instrument may return to the support level at 1705.00.
NZDUSD, “New Zealand vs. US Dollar”
As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming a Harami pattern not far from the support level, NZDUSD is still moving inside the rising channel. Possibly, the pair may reverse and start a new correction to reach 0.6585. However, an opposite scenario implies that the instrument may fall and return to the support level at 0.6400.
GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
As we can see in the H4 chart, GBPUSD has formed a Hanging Man reversal pattern while testing the resistance level and reversed. At the moment, the pair continues growing towards the resistance level. The target is at 1.2787. If later the price breaks this level, the instrument may continue the ascending tendency.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
GBPUSD is trading at 1.2666; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1.2640 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.2825. Another signal in favor of further uptrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.2505. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.2415.
USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”
USDJPY is trading at 107.48; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 107.35 and then resume moving upwards to reach 108.40. Another signal is favor of further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 106.90. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 106.05.
AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”
AUDUSD is trading at 0.6944; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.6905 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.7065. Another signal in favor of further uptrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.6795. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6705.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
EUR/USD quotes have been growing. During yesterday’s trading session, the growth of the single currency exceeded 90 points. The Fed announced the start of the purchase of corporate bonds to support the country’s economy, which has been significantly affected by the COVID-19 epidemic. The US presidential administration also said it was preparing a nearly $1 trillion infrastructure package. At the moment, the EUR/USD currency pair is consolidating in the range of 1.1300-1.1350. Financial market participants have taken a wait-and-see attitude before today’s speech by the Fed Chairman at 17:00 (GMT+3:00). Positions should be opened from key levels.
The Economic News Feed for 2020.06.16:
– ZEW economic sentiment indices in Germany and the Eurozone at 12:00 (GMT+3:00).
– Report on retail sales in the US at 15:30 (GMT+3:00).
Indicators do not give accurate signals: 50 MA has crossed 100 MA.
The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, which indicates the development of bullish sentiment.
Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.1300, 1.1265, 1.1220
Resistance levels: 1.1350, 1.1400
If the price fixes above 1.1350, further growth of EUR/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.1400-1.1420.
An alternative could be a decrease in the EUR/USD currency pair to 1.1270-1.1230.
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.25091
Open: 1.26050
% chg. over the last day: +0.76
Day’s range: 1.25864 – 1.26874
52 wk range: 1.1466 – 1.3516
There is an ambiguous technical pattern on the GBP/USD currency pair. The British pound is currently consolidating. The key support and resistance levels are 1.2600 and 1.2675, respectively. Investors expect additional drivers. Speech by the Fed Chairman, as well as a report on US retail sales, are in the spotlight. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
The UK has published a rather weak labor market report.
Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has fixed between 50 MA and 100 MA.
The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy GBP/USD.
Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates the development of bearish sentiment.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2545, 1.2480
Resistance levels: 1.2675, 1.2725, 1.2755
If the price fixes below the round level of 1.2600, a further drop in GBP/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.2560-1.2530.
An alternative could be the growth of the GBP/USD currency pair to 1.2720-1.2750.
The USD/CAD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.36012
Open: 1.35668
% chg. over the last day: -0.47
Day’s range: 1.35112 – 1.35982
52 wk range: 1.2949 – 1.4668
The technical pattern on the USD/CAD currency pair is ambiguous. The loonie is in a sideways trend. At the moment, the key support and resistance levels are 1.3510 and 1.3590, respectively. Financial market participants expect a speech by the Fed Chairman. We also recommend paying attention to the dynamics of oil quotes. Positions should be opened from key levels.
Today, the publication of important economic releases from Canada is not expected.
Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has fixed between 50 MA and 100 MA.
The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell USD/CAD.
Stochastic Oscillator has reached the overbought zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.3510, 1.3455, 1.3390
Resistance levels: 1.3590, 1.3680
If the price fixes above 1.3590, USD/CAD quotes are expected to grow. The movement is tending to 1.3660-1.3700.
An alternative could be a decrease in the USD/CAD currency pair to 1.3460-1.3420.
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 107.316
Open: 107.325
% chg. over the last day: +0.01
Day’s range: 107.231 – 107.638
52 wk range: 101.19 – 112.41
The USD/JPY currency pair is still being traded in a flat. There is no defined trend. At the moment, the key support and resistance levels are 107.05 and 107.65, respectively. The technical pattern signals a possible correction of USD/JPY quotes. We expect the speech by the Fed Chairman, as well as a report on US retail sales. Positions should be opened from key levels.
The Bank of Japan, as expected, kept the key marks of monetary policy unchanged.
Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA.
The MACD histogram has approached the 0 mark.
Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 107.05, 106.60
Resistance levels: 107.65, 108.20, 108.55
If the price fixes above 107.65, USD/JPY quotes are expected to rise. The movement is tending to 108.00-108.30.
An alternative could be a decrease in the USD/JPY currency pair to 106.70-106.40.
The US dollar has been declining against a basket of currency majors. The US dollar index (#DX) closed in the negative zone (-0.34%). Investors’ sentiment has been improved slightly after the Fed announced the start of a massive purchase of US corporate bonds. The regulator wants to provide companies with access to cash, as well as increase the liquidity of the credit market in the context of the ongoing influence of the coronavirus on the economy.
Investors still concern about the second wave of COVID-19. China has reported dozens of new cases of coronavirus, which were primarily found in Beijing’s large food market. Also, a new COVID-19 outbreak was recorded in Tokyo, after the nightclubs and bars of the capital opened. The total number of cases has already exceeded 8 million. Today, the speech by the Fed Chairman is in the spotlight. Jerome Powell should give a speech to Congress and present to the legislators the Fed’s vision regarding economic prospects.
The “black gold” prices have been growing. Currently, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the $37.50 mark per barrel. At 23:30 (GMT+3:00), API weekly crude oil stock will be published.
Market indicators
Yesterday, there was the bullish sentiment in the US stock market: #SPY (+0.93%), #DIA (+0.63%), #QQQ (+1.22%).
The 10-year US government bonds yield continues to grow. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 0.73-0.74%.
The news feed on 2020.06.16:
– UK labor market data at 09:00 (GMT+3:00);
– ZEW economic sentiment indices in Germany and the Eurozone at 12:00 (GMT+3:00);
– No doubt, you’ve heard: The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite just passed the 10-thousand mark for the first-time ever, even as the DJIA remains below its February high.
This infatuation with technology is nothing new.
Indeed, EWI’s publications have long noted that the most important peaks of the past 200 years have been associated with periods of intense technological advance.
As far back as the 1835 peak, market participants were enamored with electricity, photography, blast furnaces for the mass production of iron and indoor plumbing. In 1929, investors placed their hopes on commercial air flight and radio. In 1966, futurists were envisioning colonies on the Moon. And, in the year 2000, the shares of internet companies were skyrocketing.
At the time, our January 2000 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides analysis and forecasts for major U.S. financial markets, offered the following assessment of the technology sector:
In a bear market, reason, technology and science do not get the same respect. The prominence of its recent veneration suggests that a flight from them may be just around the corner.
As the chart shows, the NASDAQ topped in March 2000 — two months after the January 2000 peak in the DJIA — and declined 78% over the next 31 months.
The same topping sequence happened at the October 2007 peak on a shorter-term time basis. The Dow peaked on October 11, 2007 and the NASDAQ held up for several more weeks, topping on October 31, 2007. The market then declined more than 55% until March 2009.
How about here in mid-2020? Are investors facing another top in the technology sector?
After all, the DJIA peaked in February while the Nasdaq Composite just hit an all-time high.
Of course, it remains to be seen whether the current juncture unfolds in the same way.
Yet, Elliott Wave International’s June 8 U.S. Short Term Update, a thrice weekly publication which provides near-term forecasts for key U.S. financial markets, provided this insight:
History shows the NASDAQ topping last at the end of strong rallies.
Right now, EWI’s analysts are discussing an Elliott wave formation in the NASDAQ’s price chart.
If you’re new to Elliott wave analysis or need to brush up on your Elliott wave knowledge, you can read the online version of the “must read” book, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, 100% free.
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The primary value of the Wave Principle is that it provides context for market analysis. This context provides both a basis for disciplined thinking and a perspective on the market’s general position and outlook. At times, its accuracy in identifying, and even anticipating, changes in direction is almost unbelievable.
All that’s required to enjoy free access to Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior is a Club EWI signup. Club EWI is the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community and membership is also free.
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline NASDAQ: Some Historical Insights into Techno-Mania. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Our research team authored an article suggesting that our Adaptive Dynamic Learning Predictive Modeling system indicated the US major markets were 12% to 15% overvalued on May 23, 2020. This was just before the last “euphoric” phase of the recent rally took began the week after our prediction. From the date of May 23, 2020, to the recent peak in the markets, the SPY rallied another 9.72% above the price levels when we made the ADL prediction. This suggests that the major markets rallied to levels near 21% to 24% overvalued near the recent peak.
In keeping with our research team’s conclusions, the downside price move that initiated on Wednesday, June 10, 2020, after the US Fed statements, and really broke down on June 11, 2020, will likely continue resulting in the US major markets attempting to find support near our ADL predictive modeling system levels. The downside price trend could extend below our ADL price target levels if the selling in the markets pushes into an extreme selling event. It is not uncommon for the price to attempt to move through the ADL price levels attempting to find support and/or resistance.
This is the ES chart showing our ADL predictive modeling system results from the May 23, 2020 date. You can see the ADL predicted price levels near 2520 on this chart and the fact that the markets rallied away from these levels in late May created what we call a “price anomaly”. This is when price moves away from the ADL levels in a manner that is somewhat unreasonable. The same thing happened during the peak price level in early February 2018 and the October peak in 2018.
SPY ADL PREDICTED TARGET LEVEL DAILY
Based on our ADL predictive modeling system and the targeted price levels, we believe the SPY will fall to levels close to or below $260 over the next 10 to 15+ days. It makes perfect sense that the markets over-extended a speculative price rally based on the context that the US economy would rebound from the COVID-19 shutdown.
Now that the US Fed has deflated that expectation and the riots and other issues related to social and political events are pending, we believe a “sudden realization” within the markets could send the US stock market price levels much lower over the next 2+ weeks – eventually attempting to find support near recent lows.
We actually posted our technical forecast for the market crash, the 30% rally, and called this blow-off top and reversal 4 days before it happened in this video a while back.
Concluding Thoughts:
Remember, developing a winning strategy is not about trading every trend and day-trading every move, it is about timing your trades and strategically positioning your portfolio to take advantage of the “best asset now”. We’ve developed proprietary technology that assists us in determining the best assets to be invested in and our predictive modeling and other proprietary tools assist us in identifying confirmed trade triggers. Our objective is to assist our clients in generating consistent profits – not hundreds of trades.
If you were caught on the wrong side of this move recently, please remember that we tried to warn you of our multiple research articles and clear content. We’ve been warning that this upside rally was a speculative price move driven by foreign and US investors believing the V-shaped recovery was real. The reality of the situation is that this recovery is going to be much more volatile than many people believe. This is a global economic event – not just a Fed Blip or some other isolated panic volatility.
You better stay on top of these trends and risks in the markets to stay ahead of these bigger moves.
As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors. Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.
Subscribers of my Active ETF Swing Trading Newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. This week we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and entered a new trade with our account is at another all-time high value.
Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others watch most of their retirement funds drop another 35-65% during the rest of this financial crisis going into late 2020 and early 2021.
Just think of this for a minute. While most of us have active trading accounts, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during the next bear market, you could lose 25-50% or more of your net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how. One of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position but we do have a way for you or your advisor can take advantage of the market gyrations with our Technical Wealth Advisor investing signals.
If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Passive Long-Term ETF Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.
Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategies Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
June 15, 2020 – Limassol, Cyprus – RoboForex, the company that provides brokerage services for trading on global financial markets, has received an award in the nomination “Best Global Mobile Trading App 2020”, which is presented for mobile applications for trading within the frameworks of “Global Forex Awards”.
Every year, Global Forex Awards organizers present awards to the companies, which demonstrate outstanding results in providing services on the Forex market. From April 1st to 29th, there was open voting on the organizer’s website, where anybody who wanted to could vote for a certain company from Asia, Europe, and the Middle East in various categories. The winners were announced and rewarded on June 5th, 2020.
Global Forex Awards are presented to the best companies and brands of the Forex market, both globally and regionally. They are awarded to the forex brokers that implement the most advanced and cutting-edge technologies, apply complex market research tools and progressive educational programs, and introduce up-to-date business solutions to provide clients with top-class services.
Denis Golomedov, Chief Marketing Officer at RoboForex: “We’re very pleased to receive this award. Nowadays, many familiar aspects of the world around us are changing, including consumer tastes and needs. Mobile devices have already made great changes in approaches to business development in many areas of the economy and industry. Trading is also developing by leaps and bounds, that’s why it’s very important for the Company to have mobile products that allow traders to perform trading operations from anywhere in the world on the conditions similar to fully-functional desktop platforms”.
About RoboForex
RoboForex Ltd is a company, which delivers brokerage services. The company provides traders, who work on financial markets, with access to its proprietary trading platforms. RoboForex Ltd has the brokerage license IFSC/60/271/TS. More detailed information about the Company’s activities and operations can be found on the official website at roboforex.com.
On March 22, just before the Standard & Poor’s 500 bottomed out, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced it would begin buying an unprecedented array of assets, including corporate bonds, for the first time. The Fed, which later committed to buying up to US$2.3 trillion in assets, also said it would increase funding to its Exchange Stabilization Fund – which helps regulate the foreign currencies trade – and would purchase more U.S. government bonds and mortgage-backed securities.
The Fed’s decision to begin buying corporate bonds matters to stock investors because it ensures corporations can access credit markets and borrow at very low rates, which ultimately leads to higher profits down the road. Borrowing costs, or yields, on top-rated corporate bonds are about the lowest in at least a century.
This had a second positive impact on stock investors by signaling that the Fed’s unprecedented firepower will eventually be able to restore economic stability, mitigating concerns that the economic and health crises would cause a financial crisis. In just the past few weeks, the amount of securities held by the central bank has swelled from under $4 trillion to $5.96 trillion as of June 3 because of its massive purchases of various securities.
So in a nutshell, despite the dire economic situation still sharply felt by so many, particularly consumers, investors have been fueling and experiencing a sudden bull market, built on optimism that the Fed has put a bottom under the economy – just as it did during the Great Recession in 2008.
At the start of another June week, Brent remains under bearish pressure. The asset is trading at 37.58 and has significant reasons for that.
The key thing that triggered these sales in the instrument is investors’ concerns about the slow growth of the demand for commodities – not as active as expected. These concerns only got worse after the American report on the new cases of the COVID-19 showed kind of the start of the second wave. There was an upsurge in the number of new cases after the country had seen flattening of the curve, which really made people think about a new wave of the outbreak. If so, it is a serious threat to the oil price demand recovery.
Apart from this, the oil had a technical reason for a correction after a flashy growth before. The “black gold” really seemed “overbought” and one “spark” was enough to start a correction.
In the H4 chart, Brent is moving within the downtrend towards 37.00. Later, the market may correct to the upside to reach 39.55 and then form one more descending wave with the target at 35.80. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 0, thus implying further decline of the price chart towards the above-mentioned target.
As we can see in the H1 chart, Brent has broken 38.00 to the downside. Possibly, the pair may fall with the short-term target at 37.00. After that, the instrument may start a new correction to test 39.70 from below. Later the market may form one more descending wave to return to 37.00. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is mo0ving below 20. In the future, the line is expected to grow to reach 50, fall to return to 20, and then start a new rising movement towards 80.
Disclaimer
Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
After finishing the descending wave at 1.1220, EURUSD is correcting towards 1.1307. Later, the market may fall to reach 1.1259 and then grow to complete the correction at 1.1338. After that, the instrument may start a new decline with the target at 1.1200.
GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
After completing the descending wave at 1.2500, GBPUSD is expected to start a new correction with the first target at 1.2577. After that, the instrument may form a new descending structure to reach 1.2525.
USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”
USDRUB is correcting towards 70.41. After that, the instrument may fall towards 69.16 and then grow to reach 69.80, thus forming a new consolidation range. If later the price breaks the range to the upside, the market may continue the correction to reach 71.40; if to the downside – resume trading downwards with the target at 68.06.
USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”
USDJPY is falling towards 106.95. After that, the instrument may consolidate. If later the price breaks the range to the upside, the market may start another correction to reach 108.20; if to the downside – resume trading downwards with the target at 106.00.
USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”
After finishing the ascending impulse at 0.9552, USDCHF is expected to fall towards 0.9450. Later, the market may grow to break 0.9555 to the upside and continue trading upwards with the target at 0.9625.
AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”
AUDUSD is forming a new descending structure towards 0.6778; right now, it is consolidating around 0.6853. Possibly, today the pair may break the range downwards 0.6854 and then start another decline to return to 0.6778. After that, the instrument may resume growing with the target at 0.6922.
BRENT
Brent is consolidating around 38.25. Today, the pair may fall to reach 36.39 and then grow towards 39.64. Later, the market may form a new descending structure towards 35.65 to finish this wave and then resume trading upwards with the target at 40.50.
XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”
Gold is falling to break 1721.00. After that, the instrument may continue trading downwards with the short-term target at 1700.00.
BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”
BTCUSD is falling towards 9059.00. Possibly, today the pair may reach it and then grow with the target at 9700.00. Later, the market may fall to break 9000.00 and then continue trading inside the downtrend towards 8000.00.
S&P 500
The Index is falling towards 2980.5. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure with the target at 3114.7 and then resume trading downwards to reach 2770.5.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
