Author Archive for InvestMacro – Page 22

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 23.06.2020 (USDJPY, XAUUSD, USDRUB)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is trading at 107.17; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 107.00 and then resume moving upwards to reach 107.75. Another signal is favor of further uptrend will be a rebound from the upside border of the Triangle pattern. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 106.55. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 105.65.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAUUSD is trading at 1751.00; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1745.00 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1780.00. Another signal in favor of further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1730.00. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1695.00.

XAUUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is trading at 69.24; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 69.35 and then resume moving downwards to reach 67.65. Another signal in favor of further downtrend will be a rebound from the upside border of the Triangle pattern. However, the bearish scenario may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 70.05. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 71.10. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the Triangle’s downside border and fix below 68.95.

USDRUB

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 23.06.2020 (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming a Shooting Star pattern close to the resistance level, EURUSD is expected to start reversing. The downside target remains at 1.1155. At the same time, there is another scenario, which implies that the price may continue trading upwards without testing the support level at 1.1155.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY is still trading not far from the support area and forming reversal patterns, such as Hammer. At the moment, the pair is reversing. The current situation implies that the market may resume the ascending tendency towards 107.65. Still, there is an opposite scenario, which says that the instrument may break the support area and continue trading downwards to reach 106.45.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

EURGBP, “Euro vs. Great Britain Pound”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after testing the resistance level and forming a Harami pattern, EURGBP has reversed; right now, it is trading upwards. The upside target is at 0.9095. After that, the instrument may continue the ascending tendency. However, there might be another scenario according to which the instrument may fall and return to 0.9000.

EURGBP

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2020.06.23

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.11829
  • Open: 1.12612
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.75
  • Day’s range: 1.12331 – 1.13022
  • 52 wk range: 1.0777 – 1.1494

EUR/USD quotes have been growing. During yesterday’s and today’s trading sessions, the single currency added more than 100 points. The trading instrument has reached a round level of 1.1300. The 1.1255 mark is already a “mirror” support. The White House announced the development of a new $1 trillion stimulus package. We expect the release of important statistics from Germany, the Eurozone and the US. The technical pattern signals the further growth of the EUR/USD currency pair. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 2020.06.23:
  • – Indicators on economic activity in Germany and the Eurozone at 10:30 (GMT+3:00) and 11:00 (GMT+3:00);
  • – New home sales in the US at 17:00 (GMT+3:00).
EUR/USD

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and continues to rise, which indicates further growth of the EUR/USD currency pair.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1255, 1.1220, 1.1170
  • Resistance levels: 1.1300, 1.1350

If the price fixes above 1.1300, further growth of EUR/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.1340-1.1360.

An alternative could be a decrease in the EUR/USD currency pair to 1.1220-1.1190.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.23435
  • Open: 1.24582
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.95
  • Day’s range: 1.24361 – 1.25068
  • 52 wk range: 1.1466 – 1.3516

The British pound has started recovering against the greenback. GBP/USD quotes have updated local highs. The trading instrument is currently consolidating. The local support and resistance levels are 1.2435 and 1.2510, respectively. The demand for risky assets has resumed. The GBP/USD currency pair has the potential for further growth. We expect important economic releases from the UK. Positions should be opened from key levels.

At 11:30 (GMT+3:00), a number of indicators on economic activity will be published in the UK.

GBP/USD

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has fixed between 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy GBP/USD.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which also indicates the bullish sentiment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2435, 1.2370, 1.2335
  • Resistance levels: 1.2510, 1.2565, 1.2650

If the price fixes above 1.2510, further growth of GBP/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.2560-1.2600.

An alternative could be a decrease in the GBP/USD currency pair to 1.2370-1.2340.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.36128
  • Open: 1.35198
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.71
  • Day’s range: 1.35004 – 1.35417
  • 52 wk range: 1.2949 – 1.4668

The USD/CAD currency pair is still being traded in a prolonged flat. There is no defined trend. At the moment, the key support and resistance levels are 1.3500 and 1.3560, respectively. USD/CAD quotes are tending to decline. We recommend paying attention to the dynamics of “black gold” prices. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The news feed on Canada’s economy is calm.

USD/CAD

Indicators do not give accurate signals: 50 MA has crossed 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, which indicates the development of bearish sentiment.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which gives a signal to sell USD/CAD.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3500, 1.3455, 1.3400
  • Resistance levels: 1.3560, 1.3620, 1.3680

If the price fixes below 1.3500, a drop in USD/CAD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.3460-1.3430.

An alternative could be the growth of the USD/CAD currency pair to 1.3600-1.3640.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 106.775
  • Open: 106.882
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.05
  • Day’s range: 106.739 – 107.221
  • 52 wk range: 101.19 – 112.41

The USD/JPY currency pair has been growing. The trading instrument has updated local highs. At the moment, USD/JPY quotes are consolidating near the resistance of 107.20. The round level of 107.00 is the nearest support. A trading instrument has the potential for further growth. Today we recommend paying attention to economic reports, as well as the dynamics of US government bonds yield. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The news feed on Japan’s economy is calm.

USD/JPY

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, indicating the bullish sentiment.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which gives a signal to sell USD/JPY.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 107.00, 106.75, 106.65
  • Resistance levels: 107.20, 107.45, 107.65

If the price fixes above 107.20, further growth of USD/JPY quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 107.40-107.60.

An alternative could be a decrease in the USD/JPY currency pair to 106.80-106.60.

by JustForex

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 22.06.2020

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

The H4 chart shows a new wave inside the uptrend; XAUUSD has reached the high at 1764.86. If the price breaks it, the pair may continue growing towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1800.60 and 1822.70 respectively. However, if the asset fails to break the high, the instrument may continue the correction. Hence, one can expect a new decline towards 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 1645.06, 1608.00, and 1570.90 respectively.

GOLD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

As we can see in the H1 chart, after breaking the consolidation range, XAUUSD is quickly growing towards the high at 1764.86. The key support here is at the short-term fractal low (1670.60). At the same time, there might be a divergence on MACD to indicate a possible rebound from the high.

GOLD_H1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after finishing the first rising wave, USDCHF is correcting within a Triangle pattern around 23.6% fibo. If the price breaks the pattern’s upside border, the pair may continue trading upwards towards 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 0.9577, 0.9639, and 0.9700 respectively. The support is the low at 0.9376.

USDCHF_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The H1 chart shows a more detailed structure of the current correction after the ascending impulse. The first rising wave has been corrected by 50.0%. Later, the pair may continue falling towards 61.8% fibo at 0.9444. However, if the instrument breaks the high at 0.9553, the mid-term uptrend may resume.

USDCHF_H1

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 22.06.2020 (GOLD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD continues forming the third descending wave towards 1.1100; right now, it is consolidating above 1.1170. Possibly, the pair may correct to reach 1.1220 and then fall towards 1.1155. Later, the market may test 1.1170 from below and then resume trading downwards with the short-term target at 1.1100.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD continues forming the third wave within the downtrend towards 1.2250. right now, it is consolidating above 1.2340. Today, the pair may correct to test 1.2470 from below and then resume trading downwards with the short-term target at 1.2250.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is falling towards 69.00. After that, the instrument may correct to reach 69.50 and then resume falling with the short-term target at 68.40.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY continues falling towards 106.60; right now, it is consolidating above 106.80. Possibly, the pair may correct to test 107.00 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 106.60.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is still consolidating around 0.9500 without any particular direction. There are two equally possibly scenarios: growth towards 0.9540 and decline to reach 0.9450. After reaching 0.9450, the instrument may form one more ascending structure to break 0.9550 and then continue trading upwards with the short-term target at 0.9650.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After completing the descending wave at 0.6808, AUDUSD is correcting towards 0.6900. Later, the market may form a new descending wave to break 0.6800 and then continue trading downwards with the short-term target at 0.6720.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

After finishing the ascending wave at 42.77 and the correction towards 41.00, Brent has completed the ascending impulse to reach 42.40; right now, it is consolidating below this level. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may resume growing to reach 43.43; if to the downside – start a new correction towards with the target at 41.66.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is moving upwards; it has broken 1736.60 to the upside and may continue growing to reach 1760.10. Later, the market may correct towards 1737.22 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 1768.45.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After finishing the correction at 9150.0, BTCUSD is growing to break 9450.00. After that, the instrument may continue trading upwards to reach 9700.00. Later, the market may form a new descending structure to break 9150.00 and then continue falling inside the downtrend with the short-term target at 8800.00.

BITCOIN
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

After completing the descending wave at 3060.1, the Index is expected to grow towards 3114.9, thus forming a new consolidation range. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards to reach 2958.5; if to the upside – form one more ascending structure with the target at 3222.2.

S&P 500

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2020.06.22

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.12032
  • Open: 1.11829
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.24
  • Day’s range: 1.11685 – 1.12129
  • 52 wk range: 1.0777 – 1.1494

The bearish sentiment prevails on the EUR/USD currency pair. Quotes have updated local lows again. Demand for risky assets is still quite low amid growing concerns about the beginning of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. The World Health Organization has reported a record increase in the number of COVID-19 virus cases in the world. At the moment, the key support and resistance levels are 1.1170 and 1.1220, respectively. A further decline in the trading instrument is possible. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 2020.06.22:
  • At 17:00 (GMT+3:00), data on existing home sales will be published in the US.
EUR/USD

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1170, 1.1140, 1.1100
  • Resistance levels: 1.1220, 1.1260, 1.1290

If the price fixes below the level of 1.1170, a further drop in EUR/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.1140-1.1120.

An alternative could be the growth of the EUR/USD currency pair to 1.1250-1.1280.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.24180
  • Open: 1.23435
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.55
  • Day’s range: 1.23353 – 1.24283
  • 52 wk range: 1.1466 – 1.3516

GBP/USD quotes have become stable. The British pound is currently consolidating. There is no defined trend. The key support and resistance levels are 1.2370 and 1.2455, respectively. Financial market participants expect additional drivers. Today we recommend paying attention to economic reports from the UK. A further fall in GBP/USD quotes is possible. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The news feed on the UK economy is calm.

GBP/USD

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2370, 1.2335, 1.2300
  • Resistance levels: 1.2455, 1.2510, 1.2565

If the price fixes below 1.2370, a further drop in GBP/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to the round level of 1.2300.

An alternative could be the growth of the GBP/USD currency pair to 1.2500-1.2550.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.36010
  • Open: 1.36128
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.02
  • Day’s range: 1.35596 – 1.36299
  • 52 wk range: 1.2949 – 1.4668

The loonie continues to be traded in a prolonged flat. There is no defined trend. At the moment, the key support and resistance levels are 1.3550 and 1.3625, respectively. Investors expect additional drivers. Today, we recommend paying attention to economic releases from the US, as well as the dynamics of “black gold” prices. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The news feed on Canada’s economy is calm.

USD/CAD

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which gives a weak signal to sell USD/CAD.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3550, 1.3510, 1.3455
  • Resistance levels: 1.3625, 1.3680

If the price fixes below 1.3550, USD/CAD quotes are expected to fall. The movement is tending to the round level of 1.3500.

An alternative could be the growth of the USD/CAD currency pair to 1.3660-1.3690.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 106.941
  • Open: 106.775
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.08
  • Day’s range: 106.746 – 107.011
  • 52 wk range: 101.19 – 112.41

The USD/JPY currency pair continues to be traded in a prolonged flat. There is no defined trend. The key support and resistance levels are still: 106.65 and 107.15, respectively. Financial market participants expect additional drivers. We recommend paying attention to the dynamics of US government bonds yield. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The news feed on Japan’s economy is calm.

USD/JPY

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has started crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 106.65, 106.00
  • Resistance levels: 107.15, 107.65, 108.20

If the price fixes below 106.65, USD/JPY quotes are expected to fall. The movement is tending to the round level of 106.00.

An alternative could be the growth of the USD/JPY currency pair to 107.60-107.90.

by JustForex

Euro Strengthened Too Much

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Early in another week of June, EUR/USD is slightly correcting, which is quite logical after several “negative” trading sessions in a row. On Monday morning, the major currency pair is trading at 1.1200.

Moody’s kept the long-term rating of the USA at AAA “stable” and said that the US economic security was self-explanatory, while the USD was and would be the strongest global currency. This statement should have supported the American currency but it didn’t happen.

However, it appears that market players are still in the mood for risks, that’s why their interest in the USD as a “safe haven” asset is rather low.

In addition to that, investors were very closely watching the press conference by the US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who said the American economy would undoubtedly recover but it would take much time. However, markets don’t like to wait, that’s why his words are counting against the USD.

As we can see in the H4 chart, EUR/USD is moving inside the descending channel. It should be noted that earlier the pair broke 1.1222 and formed a downside continuation pattern. At the moment, the price is trying to correct and return to 1.1222. After that, the instrument may fall to reach the target of the third descending wave at 1.1100. Later, the market may correct to test 1.1222 from below and then resume trading downwards to reach 1.1000. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is falling under 0 in the histogram area. After the price reaches 1.1100, the line may leave the area and grow towards 0.

In the H1 chart, EUR/USD is correcting towards 1.1222 and may later fall to reach 1.1170, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If later the price breaks 1.1170 to the downside, the market may resume the downtrend with the short-term target at 1.1100. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 80, thus implying completion of the correction and further decline towards 50 or even 20. After the line breaks 50, the price chart may boost its decline.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

 

DAX30 consolidating between 12,200 and 12,500 – bullish breakout ahead?

By Admiral Markets

Source: Economic Events June 22, 2020 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

After a weak start into the last week of trading, the Fed helped the DAX30 push back above 12,000 points last Monday. Over the last days, the German index has stabilised between 12,170/200 and 12,450/500 points.

The announcement that the Fed is to begin buying a broad portfolio of US corporate bonds and Equities, intending to further narrow the gap in US central bank buying, underlines once again why traders shouldn’t “fight the Fed”, we consider chances of a bullish breakout elevated.

This breakout activates a projected target around 12,750 and above, around 12,900 points in the coming days.

Still, it needs to be seen whether Equities can continue to trade higher given the fact that the only bullish driver seems to be central bank liquidity.

And with rising fears around a second wave Coronavirus (Beijing started to once again close schools last Tuesday, while City Government raised their COVID-19 Emergency Response Level from III to II), markets could be hit by broader selling pressure again in the days to come.

That said, the technical main focus on the downside if we get to see a break below 12,170/200 points would initially be found on the projected and psychologically relevant region around 12,000 points, a stint lower activates the region around 11,800 points:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Hourly chart (between June 2, 2020, to June 19, 2020). Accessed: June 19, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Daily chart (between March 6, 2019, to June 19, 2020). Accessed: June 19, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of the DAX30 CFD increased by 9.56%, in 2016, it increased by 6.87%, in 2017, it increased by 12.51%, in 2018, it fell by 18.26%, in 2019, it increased by 26.44% meaning that after five years, it was up by 34.2%.

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Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

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  2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
  3. Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter “Author”) based on the Author’s personal estimations.
  4. To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
  5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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By Admiral Markets

All That Glitters When the World Jitters is Probably Gold

By TheTechnicalTraders 

– The economic pressures and concerns within the global markets have not abated just because the US Fed has ramped up the printing presses. Inversely, the stock market price levels may be elevated based on a false expectation of a quick recovery and of future expectations that may be very unrealistic.

In terms of technical analysis, Gold has set up a very interesting sideways basing pattern after recently breaking above a major resistance channel near $1720.  Our research team believes the recent base in Gold, near $1720 to $1740 is setting up just like the 2005 to 2007 peak in the US stock markets – just before the Credit Crisis hit in 2008.  We believe the similarities of the current and past events, in price and in technical/fundamental data, are strangely similar.

An underlying asset/economic class had recently experienced a stupendous bullish rally.  This euphoric rally phase was brought on because the US Fed and global markets were running high on cash and credit – heck, everyone was.  The “no fear” mentality was running wild, and so was the market.  Suddenly, it appeared that the credit markets were seizing up and that interest rates had nearly doubled or tripled overnight as banks and lending institutions reacted to the US Fed raising rates.  At that point, the catalyst for the Credit Crisis had already been set up – much like what is happening today.

SPY – SPDR S&P500 ETF Trust Weekly Chart

This SPY chart highlights the similarities between 2006-08 and now.  It may be difficult for you to see on this compressed chart, but the price pattern we’ve experienced over the past 2+ years is very similar to the price pattern that set up the peak in the markets near October 2007.  This time, volatility appears to be 3x or 4x the levels from 2006/07 – yikes.

Gold to Silver Price Ratio Weekly Chart

The current level relating the price of Gold to the price of Silver is 98.2 – an extremely high historical level.  There has never been a time like this in history where Gold has achieved this high of a price ratio compared to Silver.  It is very likely that Gold has rallied to these current levels as a “global hedge against risk” and that Silver has simply been overlooked as a secondary asset.  Even though supply for Gold and Silver has been decreased over the past 6+ months because of demand and the COVID-19 virus, we believe the current pricing relationships present a very clear opportunity for skilled technical traders.

Traditionally, the Gold to Silver ratio will likely fall to levels below 65 to normalize the price disparity.  This suggests that Silver may see a 2x or 3x rally over the next 12+ months and Gold would likely see a 60% to 150% rally from current levels.

Gold Futures Weekly Chart

This Gold Futures Weekly Chart highlights Fibonacci Expansion ratios from similar pre-expansion price ranges.  The first measures the advance of Gold from 2001 to 2008 – the peak of the 2008 markets.  The second measures the advance of Gold from 2015 to the recent peak (2020) – the presumed peak in the US stock markets

The overlapping Fibonacci expansion levels on this chart paints a very clear picture that Gold may attempt to target certain levels should it begin a much broader upside price move…

_ $1950 – Key initial target level and could become minor resistance.

_ $2250 – The next major target level representing a 2x expansion from the initial 2008 price rally.

_ $2731 – This key level is like to become the bigger target for 2020.  Our research team believes the alignment of this level with the current price expansion in Gold sits perfectly as the next upside price target.

_ $3200 – This upper price target shows some importance – yet it is still quite far away from current price levels.  Still, it is a valid upside price target.

We suggest taking a moment to review some of our earlier research posts related to Precious Metals and Gold…

June 3, 2020: Gold & Silver “Washout” – Get Ready For A Big Move Higher

May 28, 2020: Shortage Of Physical Gold & Silver

May 19, 2020: Gold. Silver, Miners Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout

GLTR Precious Metals ETF Daily Chart

This Daily GLTR chart highlights the current FLAG formation that has setup in price and is about to breakout/breakdown.  Our researchers believe the obvious breakout move to the upside is going to happen given the current global economic environment and the fact that we are looking at Q2 data within 10+ days that will likely shock many investors.  Notice that our Fibonacci price modeling system has drawn UPPER GREEN and LOWER RED triggers levels well above and below the current FLAG APEX level.  This adaptive p[rice modeling system attempts to track price rotation and ranges while adapting internal factoring levels to identify proper Trigger and Target levels.  At this point, GLTR must move above $85 to trigger a new BULLISH TREND or below $77.50 to trigger a new BEARISH TREND.

GLTR Precious Metals ETF Weekly Chart

This Weekly GLTR chart highlights a 100% Fibonacci expansion range from the previous upside price rally levels.  Should GLTR breakout to the upside and complete a 100% measured upside price move, the next target level for GLTR would be $94.70 – nearly 15.5% higher.

This is an incredible opportunity for skilled technical traders if they understand how the precious metals and miners sectors are aligning for a bigger move higher.  There has rarely been a time in history where Gold and Silver have been this depressed in terms of pricing when the global economy and stock markets have been this inflated/elevated. It really may be the “opportunity of a lifetime”.

We believe the next 15 to 30+ days will prompt a “melt-up” in Gold to levels near $2000 to $2100. Silver will likely rally to levels above $25 to $26 over that same span of time.  Once the bigger price breakout begins in Silver, attempting to normalize to the advanced price levels in Gold, Silver will begin to rally much quicker than Gold prices.  We believe that will happen as Gold nears and breaches the $2000 price level.

For skilled technical traders, this extended price move in Precious Metals, Miners, and a host of other sectors presents a very clear opportunity to time and execute some very exciting trades.  We had been warning our friends and followers for over 18+ months now that the end of 2019 and all of 2020 was going to be incredible years for skilled traders.  Don’t miss the bigger moves – they are about to unfold over the next 30 to 60+ days and continue well into 2022.

In short, I hope you glean something useful from this article and that I don’t come across as a doomsday kind of guy. If this is the start of a double-dip, it’s going to be huge, if it’s the start of a bear market, it’s going to be life-changing. If you are new to trading, technical analysis or are long-term passive investor worried about what to do you can follow my lead and trades both as a swing trader and my long term investing signals using simple ETFs at TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Found of Technical Traders Ltd.

 

How to profitably navigate trading and owning Gold, and Miners during the Next Bull or Bear Market in Stocks

By TheTechnicalTraders

Here is a quick view of where gold, the dollar, and miners have been, what to expect if the stock market starts a new bull market, and what to expect if we start a new bear market. Hope this helps ?

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