WTI Crude sprung to fresh yearly highs above $54 during early trading on Monday following Saturday’s successful OPEC and non-OPEC production cut agreement which quelled the persistent oversupply concerns. After a turbulent year of dispute and unwillingness to cut production across the board, producers outside OPEC have agreed to reduce their output by an impressive 558,000 barrels per day. Saturday’s settlement compounds to the earlier 1.2 million barrel per day OPEC output cut deal this month which makes the aggregate supply cut from OPEC and non-OPEC members roughly 1.76 million barrels per day. With optimism rapidly rising over major oil producers working together to battle the oversupply woes, Oil could edge higher consequently bolstering risk sentiment and global stocks in the short term.

Although Oil prices have staged an impressive rebound, concerns still linger towards the compliance side of the cut deal with anxieties rising over OPEC and Non-OPEC members cheating. With the agreement not legally binding and no punishments in place for going against the cut deal, there are fears of some cartel members not respecting their pledge which could pressure oil in the medium to longer term. Bearish investors may also pay very close attention to how US shale producers react to higher oil prices as active rigs in the U.S have already jumped by 21 to reaching a total of 498 in the week ending Dec 9, the biggest increase since oil charged above $50.

The current “feel good” effect bolstering oil prices could be limited with $60 becoming a tough resistance for buyers to conquer in the New Year. Bears could exploit the lingering suspicions and mistrust among cartel members in respecting the production cut to drag oil prices lower in the longer term. From a technical standpoint, bulls are in control on the daily timeframe with the current bullish momentum potentially propelling oil prices towards $55.

Dollar consolidates ahead of FOMC

The Greenback maintained dominance against other major currencies on Monday with the Dollar Index stabilising above 101.00 as expectations cemented over of the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates this Wednesday. With the CME FedWatch tool displaying a solid 95% probability of a rate hike before year-end, investors may direct their attention towards Yellen’s press conference and the dot-plot which could offer clarity on US rate timings for 2017.

With uncertainty still a recurrent theme that weighs heavily on sentiment, the Fed may adopt a cautious stance by keeping their projections of two rate hikes for 2017 despite the rising optimism towards Donald Trump’s strategy for fiscal stimulus which is expected to boost growth and inflation in the States.

Sentiment remains firmly bullish towards the Dollar with any weakness seen as a technical correction. From a technical perspective, the Dollar Index is firmly bullish on the daily timeframe and an intraday breakout above 101.50 could open a path higher towards 102.00.

Currency spotlight – EURUSD

The mixture of political instability in Italy and last week’s QE extension shocker by the ECB left the Euro vulnerable to heavy losses with the EURUSD trading around 1.060 as of writing. This pair is under noticeable pressure on the daily timeframe as prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has crossed to the downside. Bearish investors may pay close attention to how prices react to the 1.065 resistance with Dollars’ potential resurgence post-US rate hike encouraging sellers to drag the EURUSD back towards 1.050.