Dovish Fed minutes support markets

August 18, 2016

By IFCMarkets

US stocks ended marginally higher on Wednesday paring earlier losses after the minutes of Federal Reserve July meeting indicated members of the rate setting committee were divided on the pace of interest rate hikes. The dollar weakened as market participants deemed the stance of the central bank dovish: live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, slipped 0.06% to 94.703. The Dow Jones industrial average edged up 0.1% to 18573.94, with gains in 3M and Pfizer offsetting 1.5% loss in Sisco shares after the company announced plans to lay off almost 20% of its workforce. The S&P 500 rose 0.2% to 2182.22, led by utilities and financial stocks. Seven out of ten main sectors closed higher while technology, consumer-discretionary and materials stocks ended in negative territory. The Nasdaq composite index added 1.55 points finishing at 5228.66. The minutes showed two Fed officials argued for a rate hike at the July 26-27 meeting but many policy makers wanted to wait for additional information. With recent data indicating no rise in inflation and weak wage growth, investors deem the Federal Reserve will likely not hike rates at September meeting: Fed fund futures market is pricing in an 18% chance of a September rate increase,according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Investors will be focusing now on Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech on August 26 at Jackson Hole. Today at 14:30 CET initial jobless claims and unemployment claims will be released as well as Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for August. The tentative outlook is positive. At 16:30 CET natural gas storage change will be released by Energy Information Administration.

European stocks closed lower on Wednesday as investors awaited the minutes of Federal Reserve July meeting . The euro strengthened and the Pound was little changed against the dollar. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.8%, the fourth losing session in a row. Technology stocks were the worst performers. Shares of Dutch chip equipment maker ASML dropped 4.9% after Intel said it won’t use lithography technology made by the Dutch company to produce its 10-nanometer chips. Germany’s DAX 30 index closed 1.3% lower at 10537.34 with stronger euro hurting exporters’ prospects. France’s CAC 40 ended 0.9% lower while UK’s FTSE 100 lost 0.4%. Today at 10:30 CET July retail sales will be published in UK. The tentative outlook is positive for the Pound. At 11:00 CET final July consumer price index will be released in euro-zone. The tentative outlook is neutral. And at 16:00 CET European Central Bank publishes its monetary policy meeting minutes.

Asian stocks are mixed today with the dollar continuing its slide as investors revised further downward the likelihood of a September rate hike after the release of Fed minutes. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is up 0.9% while Shanghai Composite Index is down 0.17%. Australia’s S&P ASX 200 closed 0.37% lower as Australian dollar strengthened. Nikkei fell 1.6% to near two-week low of 16486.01 as the dollar fell below the 100 yen level. Exporters were among the worst performers: Toyota lost 1.67%, Nissan tumbled 2.56%.

Oil futures prices are trading higher today after the US Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday declines in US supplies of crude and gasoline were bigger than expected. US crude inventories declined by 2.5 million barrels and gasoline supplies fell by 2.7 million barrels against expected 1 million and 1.8 million barrels drawdowns. October Brent crude rose 1.3% to $49.89 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange on Wednesday.

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets


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